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Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10


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Mai Hontama to beat Panna Udvardy at 1.52 with Pinnacle

I'm not convinced that Hontama can become an elite player, but I'm convinced that she's miles above Udvardy on hard courts. Her accomplishments from last week should also provide her with plenty of confidence. Udvardy is mostly a clay court specialist.

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Lizette Cabrera (+5.5) to beat Magdalena Frech at 1.95 with Pinnacle

Hontama has dropped big time and I also like this one. Not a huge analysis, it's based mainly of what I saw in Cabrera against Rogers. It was a decent performance despite the awful scoreline and she can still play very good tennis. She won't be competing for the top spots anytime soon, but a slight improvement from last week would see her cover this line comfortably imo.

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Brantmeier to beat Trevisan at 2.55 with Pinnacle

Trevisan has beat Baptiste in straight sets in her 1st match here. She has been playing on clay tournaments since she lost in the 2nd round of the USO, so this has been her 1st match on hard since then. I saw her in the Final of the BBVA Open International (Valencia). She beat Galfi in 3 sets, but it was a really tough match for her. Prior to that, she also reached the Final in Kalsruhe, but she lost against Sherif in 2 sets (6-2, 6-3). It's obvious that Trevisan is in a good shape right now, but her game is clearly made for clay courts, not hard courts (she's a solid baseliner and she's also a good net player, but she lacks power on her shots and her serve is weak). In fact, she has a negative record on hard (26-28) and she only has won 3 of the 10 matches she has played this year on this surface. Brantmeier has just turned 17, but she has already proved that she can win matches like this one. She was only 1 match away from qualifying for the main draw of the USO. She beat Govortsova and Sramkova, but she finally lost against Schmiedlova (7-6, 6-3). She has beat Boulter (150-92 on hard) in straight sets (7-5, 6-2), in her 1st match here. With her aggressive style and her powerful forehand, Brantmeier should take the lead of the points. She also has a decent serve, better than Trevisan's serve. So, IMO, if she can hold her nerves, she definitely can win this match. I have taken this one at low stakes for 2 reasons. Firstly, Brantmeier lacks experience. Secondly, Trevisan has beat Baptiste easily in her 1st match here (6-2, 6-4).

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She's not, but she's been steadily improving, while Kovinic has been struggling for a long time now. I wouldn't be excited to bet on anything there. In fact, I have trouble finding a bet for today, everything in the WTA looks spot on and I haven't watched any of the ATP qualifiers to make a punt there. I'll stay away I guess, just happy with the bets from the days before.

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8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

She's not, but she's been steadily improving, while Kovinic has been struggling for a long time now. I wouldn't be excited to bet on anything there. In fact, I have trouble finding a bet for today, everything in the WTA looks spot on and I haven't watched any of the ATP qualifiers to make a punt there. I'll stay away I guess, just happy with the bets from the days before.

Emilio Gomez is pretty solid pick to beat Dr Ivo.

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Marie Bouzkova to beat Martina Trevisan at 1.63 with Pinnacle

Trevisan had two good results in the qualifying, but Bouzkova should be a much bigger challenge. Baptiste and Brantmeier were just not able to keep the ball in play for longer and their attacking shots were wildly inconsistent. Bouzkova play better overall and the conditions shouldn't be an issue, she can also play longer rallies without issues.

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Crazy good call on Gomez @four-leaf Extremely well measured there.  

I want you guys to know that I have been away from tennis for a long time, and took a couple wrong guesses during Wimbledon this year, and thats about it for the past god knows how long.. So I'm not dialed into these players forms at all or any of the new players really.. I didn't find out Radacanu won the US open until about a month after it happened.  

I did take a quick look at the lines and tried to find something that might be able to help out.. I'm going to try and post more reliable picks here in my attempt to return here in cooperation... However, this is not one of them just based on the bookmaker odds anyway.  I was hoping for some help and opinions what you guys think. 

Unofficial play: Renzo Olivo to beat Carballes Baena @ 3.24

I just don't believe Baena is doing well in this moment.. I think he has lingering injury of some nature.. I don't know what it is at all.. Hamstring or something.. Can be anything.. He retired in August challenger and has had some long tournaments on clay leading up to this event.. I think the conditions favor Olivo for some reason and he might have the fresher legs or ball striking.. I like the fact that Olivo has taken 4 out of the first 5 sets of his first two matches, and only dropping the remaining set 8-6 in a tiebreaker... I haven't seen any recent live match play from him or Baena.. This is purely based on statistics. Also, I don't think it helps Baena's cause here to come in directly off the claycourts when Olivo already has a couple matches under his belt in these heavier conditions... So, I like the bet, and I'd probably rate it @ around 40% chance to win.  This gives around a 10% edge over the implied odds. 

 

 

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Giron to beat van de Zandschulp at 1.9 with bet365

The Dutch is a decent player but I feel that Giron is more versatile than his opponent. He's got 2(!) very recent straight set victories (7-5, 7-6 & 7-6, 7-6) against Alex de Minaur (@Metz and Sofia) which is very impressive by itself. Winning so many tie breaks in a row shows how clutch and mentally tough he is. Also, Giron was born in California and he still lives there so this can only increase his chances of having a good Indian Wells.

Mackenzie McDonald to beat James Duckworth at 1.75 with bet365

The two players have a very similar ranking right now (#57 & #55 respectively) but I don't necessarily believe that their games are of similar range. McDonald is more experienced, more talented and eventually, more motivated (home soil) than his opponent. I don't know, perhaps I'm reading this game wrong, but my gut says the American will prevail in the end (even comfortably).

The 3rd match I like is this:

20 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Marie Bouzkova to beat Martina Trevisan at 1.63 with Pinnacle

Trevisan had two good results in the qualifying, but Bouzkova should be a much bigger challenge. Baptiste and Brantmeier were just not able to keep the ball in play for longer and their attacking shots were wildly inconsistent. Bouzkova play better overall and the conditions shouldn't be an issue, she can also play longer rallies without issues.

 

Good luck.

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I will be playing this one, though.

Elina Svitolina (-1.5 sets) to beat Tereza Martincova at 1.80 with Pinnacle

The slow conditions should help Svitolina big time in this match-up, Martincova typically needs some help to hit through. The Czech has had some good results lately, but Svitolina is capable of just crushing her if she plays to her standard.

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Harris (-2.5 Games) to beat Davidovich Fokina at 1.85 with Unibet

Fokina is in a really bad moment. Since the Olympics he only has won 2 of the 7 matches he has played, and those 2 victories have been against Simon and Steve Johnson... He even lost against Trungelliti in the 1st round of the USO. He has been really lucky to face Johnson in the 1st round here, otherwise he probably would have lost again. Harris is in the best moment of his career. He did not play well in San Diego (he struggled to beat Eubanks and he lost against Schwartzmann, after requiring a MTO). Having said this, Harris is still the better player in this moment.

Dimitrov (-3.5 Games) to beat Altmaier at 1.94 with Unibet

Dimitrov is miles away from the player he was, but the difference between him and Altmaier is still huge. Altmaier beat Querrey (6-2, 6-4) in his 1st match here, but I would like to point 2 things. Firstly, Querrey is in a really bad moment (7 losing streak). Secondly, Altmaier played his 1st match on hard of the year. Just 1 week ago, he was playing a challenger in Peru (on clay), so he has not prepared this tournament at all. As I said, Dimitrov is not at his best, but he won some matches in San Diego (Fucsovics and Karatsev), and he was close to beat Ruud in the SFs (6-4, 4-6, 6-4). If nothing strange happens, Dimitrov should win this match comfortably.

Schwartzmann (2-0) to beat Cressy at 1.90 with Unibet

Cressy has had a lot of problems to reach this round. He even had problems to beat Moriya (6-4, 4-6, 6-3) in his 1st match here, despite being a huge favorite (1.22). He also had problems to beat Coucaud (7-5, 6-7, 6-2) and Djere (6-7, 6-1, 7-5). It seems Cressy's big serve is not as effective as it is in other hard courts. Schwartzmann has not showed his best tennis recently and he was pathetic during the Davis Cup, but I think he should take advantage of these courts slowness to beat Cressy.

If I don't get profits with these 3 I won't place more bets until the Paris Masters, which is played in November. GL to all of you!

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Indian Wells (USA)

Nishikori K. Vs Evans D. - Evans to win 2 sets to 1 @ 5.50 with BetVictor.

I'm quite surprised Dan is the underdog here as i think he's just the better player nowadays.

there was no shame in his defeat by Norrie last week in San Diego, Norrie going on to win that event.

Kei had a very tough match against Joao Sousa and Dan is fresh so I'm going to have a punt on Dan Evans to win 2 sets to 1 @ 5.50 with BetVictor.

good luck all. 

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47 minutes ago, yogg said:

Indian Wells (USA)

Nishikori K. Vs Evans D. - Evans to win 2 sets to 1 @ 5.50 with BetVictor.

I'm quite surprised Dan is the underdog here as i think he's just the better player nowadays.

there was no shame in his defeat by Norrie last week in San Diego, Norrie going on to win that event.

Kei had a very tough match against Joao Sousa and Dan is fresh so I'm going to have a punt on Dan Evans to win 2 sets to 1 @ 5.50 with BetVictor.

good luck all. 

If evans wins, then 2-1 sounds correct.. Nishikori should be able to grab atleast one set.. It makes sense to me. I won't be betting on this match.. good luck brother! 🖖

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Are you guys giving Yastremska chances today.. I just got done watching 15 minute highlights from her last match.. I guess she is coming off injury or something and not playing matches.. For me the fitness level was all there and the baseline shots are fine.  Serve might be a big problem but it feels more like rust.. She was in no danger at all in the previous match, and was almost like a practice session... Was missing her serve on the long side with some decent spin on it.. If she serves better vs Badosa... She's going to have a huge confidence to a near deadly baseline attack anyways, and if we're fitter than before.. There's no reason she can't win this match.. I think she's hitting the ball well right now.. 

@CzechPunter I have a feeling you might be with me on this.. I am giving about 45% chances here, and I'm very tempted to parlay with Angelique Kerber.. This makes nearly 4/1 oddss.  All thoughts from anyone are appreciated, and good to see everyone again. 

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Yastremska has been very streaky since coming back. She can produce great shots, but her mind isn't focused at all. I didn't watch her first match here, but I did see her against Mertens last week and I didn't have a great impression. Still, she definitely has a chance against Badosa if she hits well. I think the odds are about correct. Hard to guess which Kerber will turn up. Great in the US Open, awful in Ostrava, like truly awful.

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Thanks C-Punt.. I really appreciate it .. I'm shelving the Yastremska pick completely.. I watched her doubles match October 8th after her first round match.. She was hitting the ball okay, but had tape on her arm, and I agree with the mental focus part also.  This is a problem, and its not a place I want to put money and hope to win a miracle..  So, on to the next possible.. I have something lined up for Sunday that I'll post here later.  

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Stake amount 100% total(2 bets)

Martina Trevisan 80% to beat Anett Kontaveit @ odds +550 with William Hill

Trevisan is one of my favorite players to bet, and in the beginning I lost a couple times on her, and then recovered all loss and large profit after French Open surprises.. I believe she is a good athlete with solid technique and fighting mentality. Hard courts are not her surface at all, but Indian Wells plays different than most hard courts and heavier shots get rewarded nicely by the court. Trevisan won her last match as a small underdog, and it was close.. She worked very hard but was moving very and striking even better. If you look at the past scores for Trevisan and Bouzkova.. I think you would be confused how Martina wins this, but Bouzkova can be tough to beat at times, and I think she wanted to advance in this tournament or atleast take extra payday.  So in long story.. Martina is a player that I expect is good to back moving forwards in the future in clay events and maybe some surprise hardcourt wins. Her doubles partner Cocciaretto also goes overlooked and has flawless technique from the few times I've seen her.  I looked closely @ Kontaveit's results in this tournament and I don't think the conditions are great for her. In 2019 she did well beating Puig, Sevastova, and losing a close match to Pliskova in R16.. But, I can make a case that this is still not impressive for me if players like Puig and Sevastova were not playing in top form.  I think the odds are somewhat reasonable because Trevisan has little history on hardcourts, but I still am going to go with Martina. 

Tennys Sandgren 20% to beat Cameron Norrie @ odds +425 with William Hill

Sandgren the journeyman at 30 years old is a pretty solid all around American player.. I don't think the straight sets win over Monteiro in the first round is a bad look at all.. He also had some competitive matches leading up to this tournament.  I'm not sure why Norrie is rated so highly here, and I don't believe he warrants that price.. He's been taken out in the first round each of his times here, and maybe there were some improvements from him in my tennis absence but I still think the odds are exaggerated by a country mile. 

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9 hours ago, yogg said:

Indian Wells (USA)

Nishikori K. Vs Evans D. - Evans to win 2 sets to 1 @ 5.50 with BetVictor.

I'm quite surprised Dan is the underdog here as i think he's just the better player nowadays.

there was no shame in his defeat by Norrie last week in San Diego, Norrie going on to win that event.

Kei had a very tough match against Joao Sousa and Dan is fresh so I'm going to have a punt on Dan Evans to win 2 sets to 1 @ 5.50 with BetVictor.

good luck all. 

Norrie lost the San Diego final badly to Ruud. A crushing defeat.

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