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Tennis Tips - September 13 - September 19

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  • 3 weeks later...

Anastasia Potapova (+1.5 sets) to beat Alize Cornet at 2.15 with Unibet

This is my pick for Monday, not sure why Cornet is such a massive favourite here. Sure, she's the better player of the two at the moment, but Potapova is a big talent and she wasn't as bad against Pegula as the scoreline suggests. All the plus handicaps and even the outright look like value to me here. I like the set handicap the most.

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Doi (+5.5 Games) to beat Samsonova at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Samsonova is the best player right now, but I like this handicap for some reasons. Both players have a good record on indoors, but this will be the first time that Samsonova plays here, while Doi has already won the whole thing before. It was long time ago (2015), but this is still the most important title of her career, so I expect her to give all her best. In the last edition (2019) she lost in the 1st round but she took a set from Goerges. Doi and Samsonova met for the first time this year, in Adelaide. Samsonova won in straight sets, but it was a tight match (7-6, 6-3). I did not watch the match, but after taking a look at the stats it's clear that it could have gone either way. This will be the first match for both players after the USO. Doi lost in the 2nd round against Pegula, after beating Sanders. Samsonova lost, unexpectedly, against Minnen in the 2nd round, after beating Boulter. As I said, Samsonova is the best player right now and the favorite one to win here, but I think Doi can do better than the odds suggest.

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Mandy Minella (+1.5 sets) to beat Varvara Gracheva at 2.78 with Pinnacle

Risking one more in Luxembourg, Minella should swing freely and she's actually beaten Gracheva in this season already. Since then, Gracheva has improved quite a bit, but I think she's a bit overrated just because of her recent run in the USA. At 2.78 for a set, I'm definitely happy to side with Minella.

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Bencic is trying to qualify for the WTA Finals so her commitment is beyond doubt. She said she will play all she can until Indian Wells, then she will see if it is possible or not, and then reevaluate from there. I saw Samsonova's first match here. She wasn't great but her big serve saved her from many dangerous situations. I did not see her against Dodin but it seems she could have lost that match (2 TBs and Dodin wasted a lot of BPs...). I agree with four-leaf, Bencic should win but the odds have dropped and there's no value in betting on her at 1.35, when she was at 1.50-1.55. If I were you I will wait and try to get better odds betting on live.

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