Racing Chat - Friday August 20th

[The Brigadier]

Day three of the York Ebor meeting and with a predominantly dry forecast the ground looks likely to remain on the fast side so steer away from the soft ground horses.

 

York 1.50

18 go to post for the 1m4F Skybet Handicap with the favourite, and one of only two three year olds in the field, Wink Of An Eye the one to beat. The Queen’s Dubawi gelding is chasing a five timer having won at Haydock, Newmarket, Sandown and Goodwood rising 21lb in that sequence. This will be the furthest he’s raced at but didn’t appear to be stopping over a furlong shorter trip  at  Goddeidd last time. David Egan fresh from his easy win on Mishriff on Tuesday gets the leg up for the first time and he’s the selection here. Top weight Johnny Drama comes into the equation as well and despite his steadier of 9-10 can be thereabouts. The drying ground has gone against a few here including Rhythmic Intent, Sam Cooke and Cormier. 

WINK OF AN EYE 2 points each way @ 9/2 1/5^th 12345 Paddy Power

 

York 2.25

Only five go to post for this year’s Group 2 Lonsdale Cup Stakes run over 2m 56yds and unfortunately that may well drop to four (or even less) by post time as there are clear ground doubts over Alan King’s top stayer Trueshan who’s penalised 3lb for his Goodwood Cup victory. He’s very ground dependent and I’m hoping he does run as I want to oppose him on this ground and he will take a fair chunk out of the market if he does line up. Stratum is also better on a softer surface and is also overlooked. The Gosden’s super stayer Stradivarius missed Goodwood due to the soft ground and conditions are very much in his favour here today. He’s surprisingly won only one of his last five starts but there have been good reasons for each defeat and he’s the one to beat. His big danger today will no doubt be Andrew Balding’s Spanish Mission, who finished 1 3/4L ahead of Stradivarius in the Ascot Gold Cup but Frankie Dettori rode a rare poorly judged race that day on Stradivarius and can turn the tables. The other runner The Grand Visir doesn’t look good enough. So it’s Stradivarius for me hoping that Trueshan makes it to post to keep his price from dipping under Evens. 

STRADIVARIUS 3 points win @ 5/4 Bet365

 

York 3.00

The 6F Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes has attracted a field of eleven speedy two year olds. The two form horses both have to shoulder a 3lb penalty with Coventry winner Berkshire Shadow trained by Andrew Balding who may have found the extra furlong on soft ground a step too far at Goodwood and back at 6F on better ground looks sure to go well though may just prefer further now.. Lusail trained by Richard Hannon is the other filly carrying the penalty, that being for her Group 2 July Stakes victory. On official ratings there’s only a pound between them and the pair can battle this out with slight preference for Lusail. Fearby is third in but I was a bit disappointed with her effort at Goodwood last time and none of the others really get me too excited. 

LUSAIL 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

York 3.35

The feature race on Day three is the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. The American traveller Golden Pal comes with a big reputation with trainer Wesley Ward stating he’s the best he’s ever trained. Dettori is in the saddle and he looks sure to run well. Pushing for favouritism against him is the French raider Suesa trained by Francois Rohaut who bounced back to form when winning the King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood in terrific style. He’s yet to race on rattling fast ground though so preference is for Golden Pal of that duo. Winter Power has won two of his three starts at the track but was found out at Ascot on his only attempt at Group 1 level so has it to prove here today. Two year olds have won this event in the past with Lyric Fantasy in 1992 and Kingsgate Native in 2007 and it wouldn’t surprise me if this years representative Chipotle was to outrun his odds as the two year old’s allowance is massive with the juveniles set to receive 24lb from the 4 year olds. He’s had excuses for his defeats (soft ground twice and badly impeded at Newbury ) and is worth a small each way saver. 

GOLDEN PAL 2 points win @ 3/1 BetVictor

CHIPOTLE 1/2 point each way @ 40/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

 

[fd1972uk]

Went with win acc using free bet four favs as pictured, around 136/1.

Went with an e/w acc all at york (places) 

1350 Dark Jedi 9/1 (7)

1535 Arecibo 12/1 (5)

1610Vintage Choice 17/2 (4)

1640 Jewel in My Crown 9/2 (4)

1710 Marsabit 11/1 (6)

 

Also went moneyback offers on Lusail and Fearby at York. 

Also small double bet at just under 6/1 for Glennifer and Madame Ambassador. 

Edited August 19, 2021 by fd1972uk

[alexcaruso808]

Musselburgh

3.25   Primo's Comet - 7/2 - win 7th 

          Denzil's Laughing - 18/1 - ew & seperate bet to win. 2nd - I'm glad I put that EW bet on.

4.00   Lion Tower - 10/3 - win 1st ?. Very close race though!

4.30   Donizetti - 10/1 - ew 1st ?.  I made a very nice profit on this horse.  

          Heart Throb - 5/2 - win 5th

5.05   This Ones For Fred - 9/2 - win 2nd

all prices bet365

 

I'm very happy with today's results for me.  ?

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[The Equaliser]

THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

Lots of qualifiers today, sadly Albah @Zilzaliandoesn't qualify but don't let me put you off ? James Doyle's a plus though ?

1.00 Km Golden duke 7/4 Steady 2/1                                                                                         WON 11/4

1.30 Km Natasha 10/11 shortened 8/11                                                                                    WON 8/11

2.05 Km Mo'Assess 10/11 drifted to 6/4 Beware                                                                      WON 5/4

4.50 Km Dual Identity 6/4,7/4 drifted to 2/1 Beware                                                               LOST 6/4F

1.50 Yk Wink Of An Eye 7/2, 4/1 shortened 5/2,11/4                                                            LOST  11/4F

2.25 Yk Stradivarius 5/4 steady but 6/4 available                                                                  WON 4/6F

2.15 Muss Aramaic 4/7 Now 1/2                                                                                                WON 1/3

4.00 Muss Lion Tower 10/3 shortened 9/4                                                                             WON 2/1F

4.30 Muss Basharat 5/2 ERROR removed from list

6.00 Kilarney Western Run 9/4,11/4 shortened to 9/4                                                       LOST 11/8F

6.37 Nc Brasil Power 1/2 now 4/9                                                                                         LOST 1/3F

7.37 Nc Gleniffer 7/4 steady 13/8                                                                                       LOST 6/4F

8.07 Nc Absolute Dream 6/4, 15/8? Now 2/1 Beware                                                       LOST 5/2F

7.53 Sal Amalfi Bay 11/8,13/8 Now 7/4 difficult to decide                                              LOST 6/5F

14 qualifiers. Some are at decent prices for a Trixie.  I'll take a closer look later

13 POINTS OUT & ABOUT 16.50 IN SO A SMALL PROFIT ON THE DAY. 

Pity that two of mine were losers

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by The Equaliser
Update

[Zilzalian]

6 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

Lots of qualifiers today, sadly Albah @Zilzaliandoesn't qualify but don't let me put you off ? James Doyle's a plus though ?

1.00 Km Golden duke 7/4

1.30 Km Natasha 10/11

2.05 Km Mo'Assess 10/11

4.50 Km Dual Identity 6/4,7/4

1.50 Yk Wink Of An Eye 7/2, 4/1

2.25 Yk Stradivarius 5/4

2.15 Muss Aramaic 4/7

4.00 Muss Lion Tower 10/3

4.30 Muss Basharat 5/2

6.00 Kilarney Western Run 9/4,11/4

6.37 Nc Brasil Power 1/2

7.37 Nc Gleniffer 7/4

8.07 Nc Absolute Dream 6/4, 15/8?

7.53 Sal Amalfi Bay 11/8,13/8

14 qualifiers. Some are at decent prices for a Trixie.  I'll take a closer look later

 

 

A bigger plus is the fact that it is the fastest 2yo out this season not many horses can lower a 2yo course record like this beast did at Haydock. but if you want to play with the "tipsters" that are so good they have to work for a living ???

[Zilzalian]

Todays fun 40p lucky 15 = £6.00

300 york               orazio           10/1           Blah

653 Salisbury       Albahr           5/4             won

420 Kempton       Bomb Proof   8/1            2nd at 10/1

225 York              Trueshan      11/4            NR

returns £2.75 bank down to £77.22

Edited August 20, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

A bigger plus is the fact that it is the fastest 2yo out this season not many horses can lower a 2yo course record like this beast did at Haydock. but if you want to play with the "tipsters" that are so good they have to work for a living ???

When you write stuff up as you did about this horse last night it reminds me about an incident of a horse named White Muzzle many years ago. A man walked into a betting shop with carrier bags stuffed full of money, it was about £30k.  So impressed with the horse's previous performance that he insisted on putting all his money on the horse in an overseas event.  He wanted the price on offer of 9/4.  After a phone call the betting shop manager took the bet.  The horse lost.  It just concerns me that punters may feel over confident about your selection and put too much money on your horse.  I hope it wins and I hope that they win but one has to be sensible about how much money to put on any horse.

With regards to tipster selections that I highlight it is very much a trial experiment of finding the best of the best out there for anyone being persuaded by the main sporting press.  One still has to do research into the selections no matter what the price of a horse is.  Yesterday, there were only 3 selections and the best priced horse was The Tron in the 8.05 at Wolverhampton.  One of the irresponsible journalists imo said that it didn't matter that the horse was up in distance from 6f to 7f.  Well, it did matter to me and I said so in one of my posts.  The horse was backed into 2/1 favourite and I read that it faded in the last furlong.

As I have said time and time again on this forum, with so many horses running on anyone day. a tip by anyone's true worth lies in taking another look and seeing for oneself if the circumstances are right for the horse to have a winning chance today and if it is therefore worth having a bet on it.

I fully expected most of my respected forum members to roll around the floor laughing when I said I was putting up tipster selections.  However, I feel it worth mentioning that by me focusing on the merits of just a few horses has led me closer to achieving a full Trixie payout than I have done so in my recent past.

It may also be worth mentioning that all the entries of today's PL's Accumulator are included in my above list.

Haha, they nap your selection Albahr.  I do hope it wins for you and £6.00 in a lucky 15 is very sensible

 

 

   

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

1.50 York - 1pt e/w Scarlet Dragon @ 14/1

2.25 York - 2pts win Spanish Mission @ 5/2

3.00 York - 1pt e/w Gis A Sub @ 12/1

3.35 York - 2pts win Dragon Symbol @ 9/2

4.10 York - 1pt e/w Vintage Choice @ 14/1

4.40 York - 1pt e/w Wait For The Lord @ 18/1

5.10 York - 1pt e/w King Triton @ 10/1

[Zilzalian]

27 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

When you write stuff up as you did about this horse last night it reminds me about an incident of a horse named White Muzzle many years ago. A man walked into a betting shop with carrier bags stuffed full of money, it was about £30k.  So impressed with the horse's previous performance that he insisted on putting all his money on the horse in an overseas event.  He wanted the price on offer of 9/4.  After a phone call the betting shop manager took the bet.  The horse lost.  It just concerns me that punters may feel over confident about your selection and put too much money on your horse.  I hope it wins and I hope that they win but one has to be sensible about how much money to put on any horse.

With regards to tipster selections that I highlight it is very much a trial experiment of finding the best of the best out there for anyone being persuaded by the main sporting press.  One still has to do research into the selections no matter what the price of a horse is.  Yesterday, there were only 3 selections and the best priced horse was The Tron in the 8.05 at Wolverhampton.  One of the irresponsible journalists imo said that it didn't matter that the horse was up in distance from 6f to 7f.  Well, it did matter to me and I said so in one of my posts.  The horse was backed into 2/1 favourite and I read that it faded in the last furlong.

As I have said time and time again on this forum, with so many horses running on anyone day. a tip by anyone's true worth lies in taking another look and seeing for oneself if the circumstances are right for the horse to have a winning chance today and if it is therefore worth having a bet on it.

I fully expected most of my respected forum members to roll around the floor laughing when I said I was putting up tipster selections.  However, I feel it worth mentioning that by me focusing on the merits of just a few horses has led me closer to achieving a full Trixie payout than I have done so in my recent past.

It may also be worth mentioning that all the entries of today's PL's Accumulator are included in my above list.

Haha, they nap your selection Albahr.  I do hope it wins for you and £6.00 in a lucky 15 is very sensible

 

 

   

 

The 200.00 i have had at 7/4 is sensible. it is now 8/11 ?

[alancraik]

todays York selections

1:50 - Johnny Drama 7/1 e/w

2:25 - Stradivarius 13/8 win sentiment playing a part in this selection

3:00 - Berkshire Shadow 7/2 win

3:35 - Emaraaty Ana 40/1 e/w (14/1 8 places)

4:40 - Achelois 7/2 win

5:10 - Wishaah 9/2 win

[The Equaliser]

20 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

The 200.00 i have had at 7/4 is sensible. it is now 8/11 ?

Of course.  I was only teasing you earlier.  You are a good man.  I sincerely hope that it does win by the 5 lengths you think it will. 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Kempton 1.00

GOLDEN DUKE 85/40

[roger2256]

August  -22

1pt level stakes win only 

13.50 Yor My Frankel 12/1

13.50 Yor Midnight's Legacy 16/1 

Prices as of now b365  

[The Equaliser]

26 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Kempton 1.00

GOLDEN DUKE 85/40

13lbs well in at the weights but I'm not sure about 6f so I left it

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is :

4.00 Muss Lion Tower 9/4

6.00 Kill Western Run 9/4

7.37 Nc Gleniffer 13/8

One £2 win Trixie = £8.00 = poss return of £110.69

single:

5.35 Nc My Little Queens £2 win at 8.6 = £14.90 p if it wins.

Haven't had much time to look at York and though the money is piling in on on Wink Of An Eye 4/1 to 11/4 I won't back it with 17 other runners against it

Also, need to look at my favourite jockeys/apprentices

Good luck to all at York today

 

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

5.00 killarney whatsnotoknow 12/1 e/w bet365

[The Equaliser]

41 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is :

4.00 Muss Lion Tower 9/4

6.00 Kill Western Run 9/4

7.37 Nc Gleniffer 13/8

One £2 win Trixie = £8.00 = poss return of £110.69

single:

5.35 Nc My Little Queens £2 win at 8.6 = £14.90 p if it wins.

Haven't had much time to look at York and though the money is piling in on on Wink Of An Eye 4/1 to 11/4 I won't back it with 17 other runners against it

Also, need to look at my favourite jockeys/apprentices

Good luck to all at York today

 

 

fun bets so far at York

1.50 Pirate King 50p win at 40/1, Hms President £1 win at 7/1, Scarlet Dragon 50p win at 14/1 and Ins bet 80p on Wink Of an eye at 11/4 = £2.80 staked

2.25 Stratum £1 win at 11/1 (RM/APoB) close 2nd last year and running well.  No ins bet

3.00 Orazio (WB) £1 win at 8/1

Off to lunch you will all be relived to know

 

[gbettle]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Kempton 1.00

GOLDEN DUKE 85/40

Nice ?

[gbettle]

31 minutes ago, gbettle said:

Nice ?

1.5 lengths: "Tracked leaders, going best over 2f out, ridden and ran on over 1f out, led inside final furlong, went clear final 110yds, readily (tchd 5/2 and tchd 3/1)"

[alexcaruso808]

To all my good friends on the forum, good luck with your bets. ?

[fd1972uk]

Well done Frankie and Stradivarius. 

Pity Wink of an Eye put paid to my Acc. Looking at my accs, it seems the very first race kills me. 

[The Equaliser]

52 minutes ago, gbettle said:

1.5 lengths: "Tracked leaders, going best over 2f out, ridden and ran on over 1f out, led inside final furlong, went clear final 110yds, readily (tchd 5/2 and tchd 3/1)"

In retrospect I was a bit too cautious about the distance.  Very good winner.  The big 3 are doing well today

[black rabbit]

Vintage clarets    1/4  pt  win   17/1  betfair 

Arecibo   1/4   pt  win   40/1    betfair

Ananya   1/4 pt   win   75/1   betfair

Abduction   1/4  pt  win   36/1  betfair 

 

P/L   +  118 PTS  

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Of course.  I was only teasing you earlier.  You are a good man.  I sincerely hope that it does win by the 5 lengths you think it will. 

Trust me if you called me a nob head, fool, idiot, it wouldn't bother me at all i love a bit of banter life is far too short. its the nasty trolls that need nasty back i know the difference.

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

fun bets so far at York

1.50 Pirate King 50p win at 40/1, Hms President £1 win at 7/1, Scarlet Dragon 50p win at 14/1 and Ins bet 80p on Wink Of an eye at 11/4 = £2.80 staked

2.25 Stratum £1 win at 11/1 (RM/APoB) close 2nd last year and running well.  No ins bet

3.00 Orazio (WB) £1 win at 8/1

Off to lunch you will all be relived to know

 

Last few fun bets at York

3.35 Winter Power (SDS) £1 win at 15/2, Suesa 9WB) £1 win at 4/1

4.10 Herbertandflorence (WB) £1 win at 16/1

4.40 Achelios (OM) £2.50 win at 4.7 = £9.07 P if it wins

5.10 Royal Fleet (WB) £1 win at 4/1, Cuban Dancer (JF/MJ) 50p win at 40/1 and Devilwala (RK) 50p win at 40/1

Total stakes at York £12.30 all for fun with some of my favourite jockeys aboard

Unfortunately domestic chores await and I have to pick up my autistic son later for his weekend at home.  This will restrict my betting activities for the weekend but people are more important to me than horses.

 

 

 

[The Equaliser]

28 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Trust me if you called me a nob head, fool, idiot, it wouldn't bother me at all i love a bit of banter life is far too short. its the nasty trolls that need nasty back i know the difference.

I wouldn't ever call you names, I just couldn't resist implying that you only had £6.00 on Alhabr in the 6.53 at Salisbury tonight as I knew that this was simply not true.  It is now 8/11 as you say. This reminds me of Jenny Pitman who once said "it doesn't matter how much money you bet on a horse it won't make it run any faster". That aside, let us hope that it will be Sweeping away the opposition later.  I love it when PL members make a bit of money for themselves and their followers ?    

Many thanks for your comments regarding Time and Form.  I guess you think of horses having the best form who have ran well in the better class races as opposed to their challengers.

 

[Zilzalian]

20 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I wouldn't ever call you names, I just couldn't resist implying that you only had £6.00 on Alhabr in the 6.53 at Salisbury tonight as I knew that this was simply not true.  It is now 8/11 as you say. This reminds me of Jenny Pitman who once said "it doesn't matter how much money you bet on a horse it won't make it run any faster". That aside, let us hope that it will be Sweeping away the opposition later.  I love it when PL members make a bit of money for themselves and their followers ?    

Many thanks for your comments regarding Time and Form.  I guess you think of horses having the best form who have ran well in the better class races as opposed to their challengers.

 

Well this nob head top rated Lusail then decided that orazio was far better value at 10/1 by off time Lusail was a decent price, so that just about sums time and form and me up lol

[The Brigadier]

On 8/19/2021 at 3:53 PM, The Brigadier said:

Day three of the York Ebor meeting and with a predominantly dry forecast the ground looks likely to remain on the fast side so steer away from the soft ground horses.

 

York 1.50

18 go to post for the 1m4F Skybet Handicap with the favourite, and one of only two three year olds in the field, Wink Of An Eye the one to beat. The Queen’s Dubawi gelding is chasing a five timer having won at Haydock, Newmarket, Sandown and Goodwood rising 21lb in that sequence. This will be the furthest he’s raced at but didn’t appear to be stopping over a furlong shorter trip  at  Goddeidd last time. David Egan fresh from his easy win on Mishriff on Tuesday gets the leg up for the first time and he’s the selection here. Top weight Johnny Drama comes into the equation as well and despite his steadier of 9-10 can be thereabouts. The drying ground has gone against a few here including Rhythmic Intent, Sam Cooke and Cormier. 

WINK OF AN EYE 2 points each way @ 9/2 1/5^th 12345 Paddy Power

 

York 2.25

Only five go to post for this year’s Group 2 Lonsdale Cup Stakes run over 2m 56yds and unfortunately that may well drop to four (or even less) by post time as there are clear ground doubts over Alan King’s top stayer Trueshan who’s penalised 3lb for his Goodwood Cup victory. He’s very ground dependent and I’m hoping he does run as I want to oppose him on this ground and he will take a fair chunk out of the market if he does line up. Stratum is also better on a softer surface and is also overlooked. The Gosden’s super stayer Stradivarius missed Goodwood due to the soft ground and conditions are very much in his favour here today. He’s surprisingly won only one of his last five starts but there have been good reasons for each defeat and he’s the one to beat. His big danger today will no doubt be Andrew Balding’s Spanish Mission, who finished 1 3/4L ahead of Stradivarius in the Ascot Gold Cup but Frankie Dettori rode a rare poorly judged race that day on Stradivarius and can turn the tables. The other runner The Grand Visir doesn’t look good enough. So it’s Stradivarius for me hoping that Trueshan makes it to post to keep his price from dipping under Evens. 

STRADIVARIUS 3 points win @ 5/4 Bet365

 

York 3.00

The 6F Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes has attracted a field of eleven speedy two year olds. The two form horses both have to shoulder a 3lb penalty with Coventry winner Berkshire Shadow trained by Andrew Balding who may have found the extra furlong on soft ground a step too far at Goodwood and back at 6F on better ground looks sure to go well though may just prefer further now.. Lusail trained by Richard Hannon is the other filly carrying the penalty, that being for her Group 2 July Stakes victory. On official ratings there’s only a pound between them and the pair can battle this out with slight preference for Lusail. Fearby is third in but I was a bit disappointed with her effort at Goodwood last time and none of the others really get me too excited. 

LUSAIL 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

York 3.35

The feature race on Day three is the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. The American traveller Golden Pal comes with a big reputation with trainer Wesley Ward stating he’s the best he’s ever trained. Dettori is in the saddle and he looks sure to run well. Pushing for favouritism against him is the French raider Suesa trained by Francois Rohaut who bounced back to form when winning the King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood in terrific style. He’s yet to race on rattling fast ground though so preference is for Golden Pal of that duo. Winter Power has won two of his three starts at the track but was found out at Ascot on his only attempt at Group 1 level so has it to prove here today. Two year olds have won this event in the past with Lyric Fantasy in 1992 and Kingsgate Native in 2007 and it wouldn’t surprise me if this years representative Chipotle was to outrun his odds as the two year old’s allowance is massive with the juveniles set to receive 24lb from the 4 year olds. He’s had excuses for his defeats (soft ground twice and badly impeded at Newbury ) and is worth a small each way saver. 

GOLDEN PAL 2 points win @ 3/1 BetVictor

CHIPOTLE 1/2 point each way @ 40/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

 

Two out four winners for a small profit of 2.63 points. Saturdays thoughts already up. Good luck with the rest of the days punting.

[The Equaliser]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Well this nob head top rated Lusail then decided that orazio was far better value at 10/1 by off time Lusail was a decent price, so that just about sums time and form and me up lol

I backed Orazio too but i'm glad that Lusail won for @TheBrigadierfollowers

Just got Winter Power so my £12.30 isn't entirely squandered ?

[azzybear]

rifle man 5.10