Racing Chat - Thursday 19th August

[Villa Chris]

59 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

OH WHAT A LOVELY CON

I said above that System was not the best rated horse.  My problem was that many people were saying that it had the best form.  Hence the question I wanted an answer to was how can one have a different horse as the form horse when another one is top rated.  Imo Timeform deliberately misled punters by selecting it in the their summary when they knew full well that Ever Given was their top rated horse by far.  They even cheekily said that Ever Given had the best form in the race.

Hence, @Zilzalianand @Villa Chris or any PL member with a view can I assume (bearing in mind that to assume can make an ASS of U and ME) that if I have a top rated horse on the day then that is the form horse?

 

 

 

I’ve just quickly scanned the card and it seems to me that System had the best form. Listed winner beating a horse rated 103 . Also ran well in a grade 3 and wasnt beaten far after being hampered. The horse would have got top points for form. That said 2 year olds are unpredictable so it’s not a race I’d have got involved in especially such a large field. 

Edited August 19, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

23 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Stratford 2.40 

class 2 race, which should be very competitive . I have Courtandbould to come out on top. Trainer in red hot form and this will be only his third chase start having beat a couple of decent horses lto. Has won at distance over hurdles and should enjoy being upped in distance from his previous chase start. Course form reads 1/1/2, so obviously enjoys it here. 
 

10 points win 3/1 

Chase Profit/loss -27.50 from 5 races 

Had to work late so didn’t watch the race. Going off write up the horse didn’t jump so well and then fell near the end. 
 

Chase profit/loss -37.50 from 6 races. 
 

no action tomorrow but two races Saturday I’ve got my eye on 

[fd1972uk]

Got money back for Desert Dreamer, but Sandrine beat my treble (just under 7/1), Snowfall and Presentandcounting being the other 2.

 

Never saw the race but going by reports Sandrine ran 'flat' and left too much on the winner. 

Edited August 19, 2021 by fd1972uk

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

My argument was for small stakes lucky 15's and specifically offramp, if you look at @Offrampbet i am sure you will agree with my logic

I stopped doing accumulators years ago but each to their own.

[Wildgarden]

51 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I stopped doing accumulators years ago but each to their own.

football ones are easier only 3 results

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

OH WHAT A LOVELY CON

I said above that System was not the best rated horse.  My problem was that many people were saying that it had the best form.  Hence the question I wanted an answer to was how can one have a different horse as the form horse when another one is top rated.  Imo Timeform deliberately misled punters by selecting it in the their summary when they knew full well that Ever Given was their top rated horse by far.  They even cheekily said that Ever Given had the best form in the race.

Hence, @Zilzalianand @Villa Chris or any PL member with a view can I assume (bearing in mind that to assume can make an ASS of U and ME) that if I have a top rated horse on the day then that is the form horse?

 

 

 

I had a dilemma about the 150 re ratings my speed figures were level for all 3 so i went for the biggest price based on judgement of form  and it won. i had a bigger dilemma earlier in the season when i top rated one but the ground indicated my second rated (angel Blue) was the one so i went with my judgment rather than the figures Angel Blue did in fact win so i was justified in switching. this is why i never take any notice of tipsters or their selections it is the road to ruin in fact there are probably better or just as good tipsters on here as there are in the play safe press tipsters, if timeform was any good or as good as "they say" the bookies would be skint and lets be honest here its bloody expensive from what i hear. you have got to use your own judgment even if looking through tipsters, so why not cut out the middle man.

 

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I stopped doing accumulators years ago but each to their own.

the bookies love accumulators and fear the "win bet" so that tells you everything you need to know about accumulators. having said that, for small stakes players like @Offramp i think Lucky 15's are a good play with a chance to drop lucky and 4 races to watch.

[The Equaliser]

53 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I had a dilemma about the 150 re ratings my speed figures were level for all 3 so i went for the biggest price based on judgement of form  and it won. i had a bigger dilemma earlier in the season when i top rated one but the ground indicated my second rated (angel Blue) was the one so i went with my judgment rather than the figures Angel Blue did in fact win so i was justified in switching. this is why i never take any notice of tipsters or their selections it is the road to ruin in fact there are probably better or just as good tipsters on here as there are in the play safe press tipsters, if timeform was any good or as good as "they say" the bookies would be skint and lets be honest here its bloody expensive from what i hear. you have got to use your own judgment even if looking through tipsters, so why not cut out the middle man.

 

You make some very good points  I do agree that despite whatever wonderful ratings one has the going, the track, the distance etc. all have to be taken into account.  However, going back to to the 2.25 at York today with System v Ever Given, I take your point that System had been in better class race(s). Despite this the Timeform writer stated that Ever Given had the best form.  The Timeform rating of Ever Given was 112.  The rating of System was 107 (the RPR's were both 108). Hence the only logical conclusion that I can come to is that as far as Timeform are concerned when they do their calculations for a race on the day of a race then, despite a horse having ran in a lower class race it produced such a result that meant it, as far as they are concerned, it is the best form on offer for that race. Do you agree with this assuming all other things being equal?

 

       

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

the bookies love accumulators and fear the "win bet" so that tells you everything you need to know about accumulators. having said that, for small stakes players like @Offramp i think Lucky 15's are a good play with a chance to drop lucky and 4 races to watch.

I agree.  I like my Trixies especially just playing a single on the last leg if the first two fail.  I think where the bookies make their money on accumulators is where punters ramp up the number of seelctions e.g 6, 7, 8 etc.  So many bets drop out when there a re a couple of loser that is where it is a mugs game

 

[The Equaliser]

22 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

Haha, after doing so well yesterday it looks like the boys have taken umbrage as I can only find 3 matches out of 43 races.  Possibly this is all just a coincidence and I'm being paranoid but none the less I don't have much to report.

3.35 York Snowfall 4/11 (I guess they couldn't hide this one.  I hope it rains and gives Wonderful Tonight a chance to make a race of it)

4.17 Stra Presentandcounting  5/4

8.05 Wolv The Tron 9/2 2fav

I will keep this page separate from my own bets as it will be easier to make updates

 

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not much tome today as I'm busy all day

1.30 Str Darling Du Large 7/2

2.15 Chep Blue Moonrise 5/2

4.17 Str Presentandcounting 11/8

One £2 win Trixie = £8 = poss return £144.31

Singles

1.30 Str Jamacho (BH) £1 win at 6/1

1.10 Chep Adace £2 win at 7.2 = P £12.15

£11.00 staked so far

Can't do Tron in the 8.05 Wolves as the distance looks wrong

I don't agree with the RP that System in the 2.25 YK is a big player on ratings since it is level pegging with Ever Given on its RPR and 5 points beneath it on Timeform ratings.  not really worth dutching the two with 21 runners so I'll leave the race alone

Disappointed I can't do more analysis today

 

 

 

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not much tome today as I'm busy all day

1.30 Str Darling Du Large 7/2

2.15 Chep Blue Moonrise 5/2

4.17 Str Presentandcounting 11/8

One £2 win Trixie = £8 = poss return £144.31

Singles

1.30 Str Jamacho (BH) £1 win at 6/1

1.10 Chep Adace £2 win at 7.2 = P £12.15

£11.00 staked so far

Can't do Tron in the 8.05 Wolves as the distance looks wrong

I don't agree with the RP that System in the 2.25 YK is a big player on ratings since it is level pegging with Ever Given on its RPR and 5 points beneath it on Timeform ratings.  not really worth dutching the two with 21 runners so I'll leave the race alone

Disappointed I can't do more analysis today

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

One double in today which yielded a return of £16.63, therefore a profit on the day of £5.63.  This makes my new balance £803.77 (Bank £1056.22)

Seven meetings tomorrow if I take into account the two Irish venues.  Lot of work on for the 3 Tipster selcections

I hope that most PL punters have a better day at York tomorrow 

 

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

47 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

You make some very good points  I do agree that despite whatever wonderful ratings one has the going, the track, the distance etc. all have to be taken into account.  However, going back to to the 2.25 at York today with System v Ever Given, I take your point that System had been in better class race(s). Despite this the Timeform writer stated that Ever Given had the best form.  The Timeform rating of Ever Given was 112.  The rating of System was 107 (the RPR's were both 108). Hence the only logical conclusion that I can come to is that as far as Timeform are concerned when they do their calculations for a race on the day of a race then, despite a horse having ran in a lower class race it produced such a result that meant it, as far as they are concerned, it is the best form on offer for that race. Do you agree with this assuming all other things being equal?

 

       

The Clue is in the name, when Phil Bull first set up timeform it was quite specific in that it used time and form that is probably where the discrepancies come in. if form of a horse is its top rating but the time rating is not on horse A and horse B is the opposite say, then a calculation needs to be done, this is only a guess on my part but it may answer the question. i have similar conflicts between my speed figures and form my primary consideration is speed secondary is form. its fine where the speed figure is "standout" but as you noticed today on my rating they were all the same on 124 so what i did was take next best figure for each of the three, that was also inconclusive so then i measured them against each other on form and merit and Zain Claudette came out best so that is the one i backed as proofed by my competition selection. There is a listed 2yo race at 6:53 Salisbury tomorrow evening if you want as near a certainty as you will get Albahr is miles in front on figures and is 5/4 as we speak, it should be 1/3, if you want the FC Sweeping is next best 3 lengths behind, you may well see a superstar in Albahr tomorrow night i think it will win by over 5 lengths. it will be interesting to see if i have the margin right. you can thank me later.?