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Racing Chat - Thursday 19th August


The Brigadier
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Bar Mishriff it was tough finding winners on day one but here’s my thoughts on Day 2 :-

 

York 150

Eleven go to post for the Group 2 Lowther Stakes with Sandrine a warm favourite. Andrew Balding’s filly is hard to oppose here despite a 3lb penalty for her Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes victory at the Newmarket July meeting when defeating Her main rival today Desert Dreamer by 1 3/4L. David Probert is having his best ever season and retains his association with this Bobby’s Kitten juvenile who has winning form 8n both heavy and fast ground. Desert Dreamer is closely matched with Zain Claudette on their Princess Margaret Stakes form from Ascot last month and could hit the frame. Sandrine looks smart and should be winning this in my opinion. 

SANDRINE 3 points win @ 13/8 Bet Victor

 

York 2.25

A maximum bumper field of 22 go to post here for the Geoff’s UK Premier Yearling Stakes run over 6F. There’s plenty of dead wood here and only a handful can seriously be fancied. The best in on official ratings is Richard Hannon’s System who looks the likeliest  winner. Pat Dobbs rides this son of Galileo Gold who beat the smart Desert Dreamer in a listed race at Newmarket in June and wasn’t beaten far when 5th in a  Group 3 at Ascot last time. That form should be good enough to take this for Hannon who has farmed this race over the years, winning 4 of the last 5 renewals. Tom Dascombe’s  Ever Given and Clive Cox’s Wings Of War can also be competitive although the biggest threat to the selection may actually come from his stable mate Oh Herberts Reign who improved to run a promising newcomer of the Gosden’s close in a Newbury maiden only last weekend. 

SYSTEM 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet 365

 

York 3.00

A bumper turnout for the Clipper Logistics Handicap run over  1m  of the Knavesmire where it pays to be drawn low as those drawn high can be thrown out wide or forced to drop in and forfeit ground. All the main fancies are drawn out wide with the likes of Magical Morning (stall 18), Astro Boy (17), La Trinidad (20) and Ametist (19) and although you can win from there it certainly doesn’t make it easy. Maydanny likes to press forward and is nicely drawn in stall 3 to front run and looks sure to run well although a 6lb penalty for his Golden Mile Handicap win at Goodwood won’t make things easy here although he gets my selection here. The other Shadwell Stud owned runner Basshir, ridden by stable number two Dane O’Neill can also run well. 

MAYDANNY 1 point each way @ 7/1 1/5th 123456

 

York 3.35

This season’s Darley Yorkshire Oaks has attracted 7 runners and looks at the mercy of the odds on favourite Snowfall who should really be winning this. The last four winners of this Group 1 contest have been Enable, Sea Of Class, Enable and Love and Aidan O’Brien’s super mare can join that illustrious group by comfortably winning this. She’s won the Musidora , Epsom and Irish Oaks this season by a staggering aggregate of 28 1/4 lengths. The two four year olds up against her Albaflora and Wonderful Tonight would both much prefer softer ground and it wouldn’t be a shock if one or both were pulled out due to the drying conditions. John Gosden’s Loving Dream had Eshaada 3/4L behind her in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot last time but the latter is reportedly smart and can turn the tables here and chase the favourite home. She can be backed in the ‘without the favourite’ market. 

ESHAADA 2 points win 10/3 Bet365 (without Snowfall)

 

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Stratford 2.40 

class 2 race, which should be very competitive . I have Courtandbould to come out on top. Trainer in red hot form and this will be only his third chase start having beat a couple of decent horses lto. Has won at distance over hurdles and should enjoy being upped in distance from his previous chase start. Course form reads 1/1/2, so obviously enjoys it here. 
 

10 points win 3/1 

Chase Profit/loss -27.50 from 5 races 

Edited by Villa Chris
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THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

Haha, after doing so well yesterday it looks like the boys have taken umbrage as I can only find 3 matches out of 43 races.  Possibly this is all just a coincidence and I'm being paranoid but none the less I don't have much to report.

3.35 York Snowfall 4/11 (I guess they couldn't hide this one.  I hope it rains and gives Wonderful Tonight a chance to make a race of it) WON 8/15F

4.17 Stra Presentandcounting  5/4 WON 11/8F

8.05 Wolv The Tron 9/2 2fav LOST  2/1F (I said I didn't like the distance)

I will keep this page separate from my own bets as it will be easier to make updates

3 points out and about 3.9 returned so no disaster.

Let's see what is on offer tomorrow?

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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todays fun 40p lucky 15 = £6.00

725 winds           the first king                 22/1   lost

445 york             forbearance                 16/1   won r4

225 York             smullen                        17/2    lost

300 york             orbaan                         11/1    lost

prices bet365 on posting

bit of profit bank back up to £91.97

Edited by Zilzalian
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Not much tome today as I'm busy all day

1.30 Str Darling Du Large 7/2

2.15 Chep Blue Moonrise 5/2

4.17 Str Presentandcounting 11/8

One £2 win Trixie = £8 = poss return £144.31

Singles

1.30 Str Jamacho (BH) £1 win at 6/1

1.10 Chep Adace £2 win at 7.2 = P £12.15

£11.00 staked so far

Can't do Tron in the 8.05 Wolves as the distance looks wrong

I don't agree with the RP that System in the 2.25 YK is a big player on ratings since it is level pegging with Ever Given on its RPR and 5 points beneath it on Timeform ratings.  not really worth dutching the two with 21 runners so I'll leave the race alone

Disappointed I can't do more analysis today

 

 

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All prices Bet365:

1.50 York - 1pt e/w Hello You @ 8/1

Looks a cracking each way price to me having hacked up on debut and then twice run respectably behind Sandrine. Clearly that one is very much respected but Hello You is a buzzy type and has taken a keen hold on both runs behind the favourite. One of those came on heavy ground and the other came at Newmarket and I just think this track, where speed is more of a factor, will help. Has the hood on today, can bowl along and gets 3lbs from Sandrine, so I don't see why she won't run a big race.

2.25 York - 2pts win System @ 5/1

Not sure why this one is easy to back, other than maybe because the Hannon yard aren't flying, but I think she should be favourite for sure. Has the best form in the race when beating Desert Dreamer and Cachet a couple of starts back and ran a little bit flat last time but that was still in a much better race than this. Hopefully will get a good tow into the race which seems likely given the size of the field and I don't think being drawn in the middle is a bad thing so lots in her favour.

3.00 York - 1pt e/w Gifted Ruler @ 20/1

Needs a bit extra following a couple of good seconds the last twice but I think the move up to a mile for the first time is well worth a try given he's very much bred to stay the trip and he's been early off the bridle in two 7f races recently. He's off a competitive mark and can hopefully travel a bit better today with an extra furlong to help and this should be run to suit.

3.35 York - 1pt e/w Eshaada @ 12/1

Clearly Snowfall is the one to beat but I still insist she's not an absolute beast given there are some question marks over what she's beaten having handled conditions better than anyone else at Epsom and then they all ran away from her in the Irish Oaks. She's very high class but I wouldn't want to get stuck in at the odds and with the ground against Wonderful Tonight, I think Eshaada looks a good alternative. Is lightly raced and still looked a bit of a baby when running a cracker at Ascot - wide and keen throughout and a bit unsure of what to do when asked to pick up but ended up finishing powerfully. This track will suit and whilst she has to step up a fair bit again, it wouldn't surprise me to see her shake up the big two (if Wonderful Tonight even runs).

4.10 York - 2pts win Alflaila @ 5/1

Again, I think this one should be favourite having beaten the smart System on debut (hopefully that one franks the form for me earlier in the day!) and then had to give weight away in two subsequent novices - was behind Maglev at Yarmouth but wasn't beaten all that far and has a 9lb swing in the weights here which I think is a big factor. Alflaila then chased home a now 100-rated horse, giving it 11lbs, so hardly a bad piece of form for one going into nurseries here off 88. The extra furlong ought to suit (dam stayed a mile and she can get outpaced over 6f) so lots to like.

4.45 York - 1pt e/w Brunnera @ 14/1

Open race and I thought Brunnera was interesting at a price. Has improved a lot for better ground and middle distances this season, with her only defeat coming to Portfolio (6/1 for this) a couple of starts back. Can race freely but shapes like 1m4f will suit well and the bigger field can really help her settle and finish off strongly. She's bred to be very good and there looks to be some further progress in her yet so appeals at the price.

5.20 York - 1pt e/w Separate @ 20/1

I really think this horse has a huge chance today. Regularly appears in top races but is right down to a mark of 80 which appeals a lot because she doesn't always have her ideal conditions. I think 7f on decent ground is exactly what she wants - she was 3rd on seasonal reappearance over a mile at Nottingham off 8lbs higher and you can ignore her two runs on soft this season. The only other time she ran on decent ground was at Royal Ascot and she moved into contention going well before fading in the final furlong. Down the weights, down in class and down in trip I think she's got a big run in her.

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2 yo Speed Figures

150 York

1 Sandrine                          124           11/8

1 Desert Dreamer               124           11/2

1 Zain Claudette                 124           11/2

 

225 York

1 Smullen                           125            9/1

1 Red Power                      125            33/1

3 Wings of War                  124            6/1

dead right in the 150 not so good in the 225 but you cant have everything

Edited by Zilzalian
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47 minutes ago, Offramp said:

I had a free £5 bet, and I agreed with @alexcaruso808to swerve York for this bet. It's another EW Lucky 15, £4.80, and the horses are all reasonable.

Screenshot_2021-08-19-11-16-34-069.jpg

Hope you dont mind me saying but if all your horses are placed but didnt win you would only win £1.34 I am assuming this is 16pew L15 whereas if they all won you would win £66.71 for the win part and still only 1.34 for the place part. At 32p win lucky 15 if all won you would win £133.42. 1 Loser and you would win £32.64 just for the best 3 prices and £15.88 for your worst 3.  (Profit) what i am saying is you will only be risking £1.34 to possibly gain £66.71. (if say the prices of your horses were say all 5/1 or more then the EW is feasible).

Free Bet Calculator - Calculate Your Sports Bet Returns Online (free-bet-calculator.co.uk) you might find this a very handy tool

Edited by Zilzalian
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1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Hope you dont mind me saying but if all your horses are placed but didnt win you would only win £1.34 I am assuming this is 16pew L15 whereas if they all won you would win £66.71 for the win part and still only 1.34 for the place part. At 32p win lucky 15 if all won you would win £133.42. 1 Loser and you would win £32.64 just for the best 3 prices and £15.88 for your worst 3.  (Profit) what i am saying is you will only be risking £1.34 to possibly gain £66.71. (if say the prices of your horses were say all 5/1 or more then the EW is feasible).

You are definitely 100% correct. Mathematically and logically with horses less than 5/1, I should do wins and not each way.

My only problem is when the horses all come 2nd. With a WIN ticket I get nothing, but with 4 places I get something.

I am afraid I am not a good gambler: I am too careful. However, I can stretch my credit at an online bookie for a long time.

In the future with the <5/1 bets I'll think about throwing caution to the wind!

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37 minutes ago, Offramp said:

You are definitely 100% correct. Mathematically and logically with horses less than 5/1, I should do wins and not each way.

My only problem is when the horses all come 2nd. With a WIN ticket I get nothing, but with 4 places I get something.

I am afraid I am not a good gambler: I am too careful. However, I can stretch my credit at an online bookie for a long time.

In the future with the <5/1 bets I'll think about throwing caution to the wind!

The fear of losing often costs money in my opinion. Assume whatever you bet is what the entertainment has cost you then any returns are your bonus, For small stakes you dont have too much to fear.

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23 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Bar Mishriff it was tough finding winners on day one but here’s my thoughts on Day 2 :-

 

York 150

Eleven go to post for the Group 2 Lowther Stakes with Sandrine a warm favourite. Andrew Balding’s filly is hard to oppose here despite a 3lb penalty for her Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes victory at the Newmarket July meeting when defeating Her main rival today Desert Dreamer by 1 3/4L. David Probert is having his best ever season and retains his association with this Bobby’s Kitten juvenile who has winning form 8n both heavy and fast ground. Desert Dreamer is closely matched with Zain Claudette on their Princess Margaret Stakes form from Ascot last month and could hit the frame. Sandrine looks smart and should be winning this in my opinion. 

SANDRINE 3 points win @ 13/8 Bet Victor

 

York 2.25

A maximum bumper field of 22 go to post here for the Geoff’s UK Premier Yearling Stakes run over 6F. There’s plenty of dead wood here and only a handful can seriously be fancied. The best in on official ratings is Richard Hannon’s System who looks the likeliest  winner. Pat Dobbs rides this son of Galileo Gold who beat the smart Desert Dreamer in a listed race at Newmarket in June and wasn’t beaten far when 5th in a  Group 3 at Ascot last time. That form should be good enough to take this for Hannon who has farmed this race over the years, winning 4 of the last 5 renewals. Tom Dascombe’s  Ever Given and Clive Cox’s Wings Of War can also be competitive although the biggest threat to the selection may actually come from his stable mate Oh Herberts Reign who improved to run a promising newcomer of the Gosden’s close in a Newbury maiden only last weekend. 

SYSTEM 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet 365

 

York 3.00

A bumper turnout for the Clipper Logistics Handicap run over  1m  of the Knavesmire where it pays to be drawn low as those drawn high can be thrown out wide or forced to drop in and forfeit ground. All the main fancies are drawn out wide with the likes of Magical Morning (stall 18), Astro Boy (17), La Trinidad (20) and Ametist (19) and although you can win from there it certainly doesn’t make it easy. Maydanny likes to press forward and is nicely drawn in stall 3 to front run and looks sure to run well although a 6lb penalty for his Golden Mile Handicap win at Goodwood won’t make things easy here although he gets my selection here. The other Shadwell Stud owned runner Basshir, ridden by stable number two Dane O’Neill can also run well. 

MAYDANNY 1 point each way @ 7/1 1/5th 123456

 

York 3.35

This season’s Darley Yorkshire Oaks has attracted 7 runners and looks at the mercy of the odds on favourite Snowfall who should really be winning this. The last four winners of this Group 1 contest have been Enable, Sea Of Class, Enable and Love and Aidan O’Brien’s super mare can join that illustrious group by comfortably winning this. She’s won the Musidora , Epsom and Irish Oaks this season by a staggering aggregate of 28 1/4 lengths. The two four year olds up against her Albaflora and Wonderful Tonight would both much prefer softer ground and it wouldn’t be a shock if one or both were pulled out due to the drying conditions. John Gosden’s Loving Dream had Eshaada 3/4L behind her in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot last time but the latter is reportedly smart and can turn the tables here and chase the favourite home. She can be backed in the ‘without the favourite’ market. 

ESHAADA 2 points win 10/3 Bet365 (without Snowfall)

 

Blank day today !! Fridays up soon.

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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not much tome today as I'm busy all day

1.30 Str Darling Du Large 7/2

2.15 Chep Blue Moonrise 5/2

4.17 Str Presentandcounting 11/8

One £2 win Trixie = £8 = poss return £144.31

Singles

1.30 Str Jamacho (BH) £1 win at 6/1

1.10 Chep Adace £2 win at 7.2 = P £12.15

£11.00 staked so far

Can't do Tron in the 8.05 Wolves as the distance looks wrong

I don't agree with the RP that System in the 2.25 YK is a big player on ratings since it is level pegging with Ever Given on its RPR and 5 points beneath it on Timeform ratings.  not really worth dutching the two with 21 runners so I'll leave the race alone

Disappointed I can't do more analysis today

 

 

OH WHAT A LOVELY CON

I said above that System was not the best rated horse.  My problem was that many people were saying that it had the best form.  Hence the question I wanted an answer to was how can one have a different horse as the form horse when another one is top rated.  Imo Timeform deliberately misled punters by selecting it in the their summary when they knew full well that Ever Given was their top rated horse by far.  They even cheekily said that Ever Given had the best form in the race.

Hence, @Zilzalianand @Villa Chris or any PL member with a view can I assume (bearing in mind that to assume can make an ASS of U and ME) that if I have a top rated horse on the day then that is the form horse?

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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