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Racing Chat - Wednesday August 18th


The Brigadier
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Day one of my favourite meetings of the year - the York Ebor meeting and with the weather set fair it’s looking likely that the ground will be just perfect for the meeting. Here’s my thoughts on the four ITV TV races :- 

York 150

A maximum field of 22 go to post for this class 2  5F 89yd handicap and as you would imagine is a wide open race. If the ground was on the slow side I would be all over Pendleton who’s a very progressive sprinter but seems to be best with dig in the ground. Course specialist Copper Knight has won 5 of his 15 starts on the Knavesmire and looks sure to run his usual race and be thereabouts. The current favourite is the Henry Candy trained Twilight Calls who may have been inconvenienced by the soft ground last time out at Newmarket when a well backed favourite. He finished 4th that day beaten 3L by Whenthedealisdone and re-opposes on 6lb better terms today. That may not be enough however as Roger Teal’s winner looks the value play here. Always highly thought of by his trainer he appears to have improved for a gelding operation and is two from two since the cruelest cut of them all over 5F. A rise of 6lb for that Newmarket win may still under estimate his ability and as one of only 4 three year olds in the race can go close with William Buick (who’s two from two on him) in the plate. 

WHENTHEDEALISDONE 1 point each way @ 15/2 William Hill 1/5 123456

 

York 225

A small but select field of five go to post for the Group 3 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes. A strong case can be made for the front three in the betting with Noble Truth for Godolphin coming here on the back of a 2L win from Ehraz in a Newmarket maiden. That was his second career start as opposed to the runner up’s debut run and there may not be much between them now with Richard Hannon’s Shadwell owned Ehraz having bolted up since in a Ascot maiden. It would come as no shock were either of that pair to win but preference is for the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend who looked a group horse in the making when backed off the boards on his debut at Doncaster when pushed out to win a 7F novice stakes race by 5L. The second and third have both run well in defeat since giving the form some substance and this well bred half brother to three winners notably the smart Golden Pass could be very good. He’s very exciting and the one I want to be with today. The contest is made up by Goodwood maiden winner Imperial Fighter and 93 rated Royal Patronage. 

DUBAWI LEGEND 2 points win @ 2/2 Bet365

 

York 3.00

Eight go to post for this years renewal of the Group 2 1m 4F Great Voltigeur. Queens Vase winner Kemari has been absent since that victory and drops a couple of furlongs here carrying a 3lb penalty for that Royal Ascot win. He has nothing in hand on these on official ratings (in fact he comes out 7th best) and at around 5/2 represents poor value. The positive factor mind is that he takes a big chunk out of the betting thus providing value amongst the others. The key piece of form for this race is the Gordon Stakes run over the same trip at Goodwood 20 days ago. Sir Lucan finished runner up to Ottoman Emperor, 1 1/4L ahead of Third Realm with a further neck back to Youth Spirit and 6L back to Kemari’s stable mate Yibir. It’s easy enough to strike a line through the latter (and also Scope who has plenty to find). Watching the race back I’ll take Aidan O’Brien’s Sir Lucan to confirm the form but the Ballydoyle handler has High Definition in the field today and is the presumed pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore. If O’Brien feels High Definition is better than Sir Lucan than he could be the way to go here. He was undoubtably very disappointing in the Irish Derby last time when never going with any zest and beating only one home in the field of 11 beaten the best part of 30L. There was talk after that he had been struck into early in the race. He had previously chased home Hurricane Lane and Megallan in the Dante here where he stayed on to some effect and that form looks quite tasty now. I’m prepared to give him one more chance with Moore choosing him over Sir Lucan who holds plenty here although it’s unlikely to be pretty as he has come off the bridle early in all of of his four starts before staying on well. A good horse to back in running in the exchanges if that’s the way you like to play it. 

HIGH DEFINITION 1 point win @ 4/1 Unibet

 

York 3.35

A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes despite the late defection of ante post favourite St Marks Basilica. 7 have declared and my personal fancy is John and  Thady Gosden’s Mishriff who drops in trip here having not been disgraced when runner up to Derby winner Adayar in Ascot’s King George. Having won the best part of £10 million when winning two of the worlds most valuable races in the Saudi Cup and the Dubai Sheena Classic earlier this year, he appeared to just need an excellent third in the Eclipse when trading pretty short in running. 10F is maybe his optimum trip and he’s reportedly in excellent shape with his usual pilot David Egan on board. I’m very worried about this longer trip for Alcohol Free who attempts it for the first time whilst Mac Swiney may prefer softer ground. Love was 1 3/4L behind the selection at Ascot and may not be as effective back at 10F as well as being drafted in late following St Marks Basilica’s defection. Jim Crowley was very poor on William Haggas’s Mohaafeth over this track and distance last time although has his optimum conditions here. I can see him running well. Haggas also saddles Alenquer dropping in trip but he’ll need to step up on this years form which just leaves Juan Elcano who actually looks over priced here when you consider he finished a head in front of Mohaafeth over course and distance last time and is now 2lb better off. He’s five times bigger than his rival and looks over priced. I’ll stick with Mishriff but maybe a tiny saver  on Juan Elcano with Bet365's each way extra (if you can get on with them)

MISHRIFF 3 points win @ 7/4 Paddy Power

JUAN ELCANO 1 point each way extra Bet365 @ 25/1 1/4 1234

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Some familiar names at Worcester tomorrow, horse, jockeys and trainers all included. 
 

5.30 Worcester 

The three of interest are Bathiva , Leapaway , and Longhouse Sale . If one of those 3 doesn’t win I’d be very surprised .All three score very high on my ratings. It’s the latter who comes out on top though. A slight pull in the weights and with a 7Ibs claimer might see him just reverse less than half a length defeat with Bathiva. Bathiva’s yard are in good form though with Paddy Brennan taking the reigns. 
 

Longhouse Sale 10 points win 11/4

6.00 Worcester 

class 2 action. A decent field and a lot with good chances . The two that stand out on ratings are Pink Eyes Pedro and Little Bruce with the latter being top rated. Stamina is certainly no issue for him and I think the slight drop down in trip may help him here and he could have some of these working hard behind him. Pink Eyed Pedro is running to a very high standard and could get rewarded here having been dropped 1Ib. The favourite Excelerator Express has a trainer and jockey in form and will probably take this up in distance in his stride , but he’s not proven and he’s up against plenty of good horses that are proven, so I’m happy to take him on. I’m going to go with both my top two rated here as both are very closely and only separated by an hair. 
 

Little Bruce 5 points win 11/1

Pink Eyed Pedro 5 points win 5/1 

Chase profit/loss from 3 races -7.50

Edited by Villa Chris
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Todays fun (40p win for men) or (20pew for the lady's) (you choose🤣) Lucky 15

I wont include any from York due to the conflict of interest with the competition

nor will I publish the speed figures for the 2yo races for the same reason.

240 Carl    Ledham                      16/1                lost

420 Carl    Wilhelm Vivonster      33/1                lost

600 Worc  Visions Des Flos        14/1                lost

800 Worc  Shanroe Tic Tec         10/1                NR

The cashout would cost 55p so we will leave well alone.

prices as of posting bet365

Crap tipster                 bank now down to  £74.67 from a oner start

 

Edited by Zilzalian
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3 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Day one of my favourite meetings of the year - the York Ebor meeting and with the weather set fair it’s looking likely that the ground will be just perfect for the meeting. Here’s my thoughts on the four ITV TV races :- 

York 150

A maximum field of 22 go to post for this class 2  5F 89yd handicap and as you would imagine is a wide open race. If the ground was on the slow side I would be all over Pendleton who’s a very progressive sprinter but seems to be best with dig in the ground. Course specialist Copper Knight has won 5 of his 15 starts on the Knavesmire and looks sure to run his usual race and be thereabouts. The current favourite is the Henry Candy trained Twilight Calls who may have been inconvenienced by the soft ground last time out at Newmarket when a well backed favourite. He finished 4th that day beaten 3L by Whenthedealisdone and re-opposes on 6lb better terms today. That may not be enough however as Roger Teal’s winner looks the value play here. Always highly thought of by his trainer he appears to have improved for a gelding operation and is two from two since the cruelest cut of them all over 5F. A rise of 6lb for that Newmarket win may still under estimate his ability and as one of only 4 three year olds in the race can go close with William Buick (who’s two from two on him) in the plate. 

WHENTHEDEALISDONE 1 point each way @ 15/2 William Hill 1/5 123456

 

York 225

A small but select field of five go to post for the Group 3 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes. A strong case can be made for the front three in the betting with Noble Truth for Godolphin coming here on the back of a 2L win from Ehraz in a Newmarket maiden. That was his second career start as opposed to the runner up’s debut run and there may not be much between them now with Richard Hannon’s Shadwell owned Ehraz having bolted up since in a Ascot maiden. It would come as no shock were either of that pair to win but preference is for the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend who looked a group horse in the making when backed off the boards on his debut at Doncaster when pushed out to win a 7F novice stakes race by 5L. The second and third have both run well in defeat since giving the form some substance and this well bred half brother to three winners notably the smart Golden Pass could be very good. He’s very exciting and the one I want to be with today. The contest is made up by Goodwood maiden winner Imperial Fighter and 93 rated Royal Patronage. 

DUBAWI LEGEND 2 points win @ 2/2 Bet365

 

York 3.00

Eight go to post for this years renewal of the Group 2 1m 4F Great Voltigeur. Queens Vase winner Kemari has been absent since that victory and drops a couple of furlongs here carrying a 3lb penalty for that Royal Ascot win. He has nothing in hand on these on official ratings (in fact he comes out 7th best) and at around 5/2 represents poor value. The positive factor mind is that he takes a big chunk out of the betting thus providing value amongst the others. The key piece of form for this race is the Gordon Stakes run over the same trip at Goodwood 20 days ago. Sir Lucan finished runner up to Ottoman Emperor, 1 1/4L ahead of Third Realm with a further neck back to Youth Spirit and 6L back to Kemari’s stable mate Yibir. It’s easy enough to strike a line through the latter (and also Scope who has plenty to find). Watching the race back I’ll take Aidan O’Brien’s Sir Lucan to confirm the form but the Ballydoyle handler has High Definition in the field today and is the presumed pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore. If O’Brien feels High Definition is better than Sir Lucan than he could be the way to go here. He was undoubtably very disappointing in the Irish Derby last time when never going with any zest and beating only one home in the field of 11 beaten the best part of 30L. There was talk after that he had been struck into early in the race. He had previously chased home Hurricane Lane and Megallan in the Dante here where he stayed on to some effect and that form looks quite tasty now. I’m prepared to give him one more chance with Moore choosing him over Sir Lucan who holds plenty here although it’s unlikely to be pretty as he has come off the bridle early in all of of his four starts before staying on well. A good horse to back in running in the exchanges if that’s the way you like to play it. 

HIGH DEFINITION 1 point win @ 4/1 Unibet

 

York 3.35

A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes despite the late defection of ante post favourite St Marks Basilica. 7 have declared and my personal fancy is John and  Thady Gosden’s Mishriff who drops in trip here having not been disgraced when runner up to Derby winner Adayar in Ascot’s King George. Having won the best part of £10 million when winning two of the worlds most valuable races in the Saudi Cup and the Dubai Sheena Classic earlier this year, he appeared to just need an excellent third in the Eclipse when trading pretty short in running. 10F is maybe his optimum trip and he’s reportedly in excellent shape with his usual pilot David Egan on board. I’m very worried about this longer trip for Alcohol Free who attempts it for the first time whilst Mac Swiney may prefer softer ground. Love was 1 3/4L behind the selection at Ascot and may not be as effective back at 10F as well as being drafted in late following St Marks Basilica’s defection. Jim Crowley was very poor on William Haggas’s Mohaafeth over this track and distance last time although has his optimum conditions here. I can see him running well. Haggas also saddles Alenquer dropping in trip but he’ll need to step up on this years form which just leaves Juan Elcano who actually looks over priced here when you consider he finished a head in front of Mohaafeth over course and distance last time and is now 2lb better off. He’s five times bigger than his rival and looks over priced. I’ll stick with Mishriff but maybe a tiny saver  on Juan Elcano with Bet365's each way extra (if you can get on with them)

MISHRIFF 3 points win @ 7/4 Paddy Power

JUAN ELCANO 1 point each way extra Bet365 @ 25/1 1/4 1234

Personally I prefer The Dante meeting , half the price as well a little like St Leger meeting at Donny both meetings are twice the price .

Cracking write up as per usual 👍

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1350 York - have went for Hurricane Ivor, 8/1.  Had an awful run last time out, but think he'll come up trumps up here. 

Quite fancy High Definition at 3pm, might elect for that. 

Notice Alcohol Free is running also, absolute hate the sight of that horse.  Remember backing it after it impressed in a previous race, lost, then it beat snow lantern who I had, bet it again next race ran like a coo and then backed it and it lost also, wins next race after ignoring, lol. 

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7 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

1350 York - have went for Hurricane Ivor, 8/1.  Had an awful run last time out, but think he'll come up trumps up here. 

Quite fancy High Definition at 3pm, might elect for that. 

Notice Alcohol Free is running also, absolute hate the sight of that horse.  Remember backing it after it impressed in a previous race, lost, then it beat snow lantern who I had, bet it again next race ran like a coo and then backed it and it lost also, wins next race after ignoring, lol. 

I had (Alcohol) £100 @ 14/1 for the guineas ran blah then it beat the guineas winner poetic flare which really naffed me off, its up and down like a groom on his wedding night ffs

 

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THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

3.35 York Mishriff 13/8, 7/4

5.20 York Bosh 4/1, 9/2

2.05 Carl Perfect News Evens

3.15 Carl Goobinator 13/8

1.40 Bath Cherrish 15/8

2.15 Bath Kaboo 4/5

3.25 Bath Manor Park 2/1

5.00 Worc Beyond The Clouds 8/11

6.30 Worc Mr Tambourine Man 5/2

7.30 Worc Mulberry Hill 5/4, 11/8

6.15 Km Vitalline 6/4 (But Bet 365 offering 15/8) Perhaps they have been talking to @MCLARKEabout Hollie Doyle being aboard.

11 Selections from 5 meetings.  I might try a trixie on the best priced ones; we''ll see.

Good luck to York players today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Was pleasing to see More Buck's show a much improved performance on Saturday night and it was tough to see him headed on the run in especially by one of the dangers. He clearly needs to lead as he seemed to enjoy himself unlike Stratford where he sulked. He's clearly handicapped to win though. As for Babytaggle I just don't know how he didn't finish in the first 3. He deserves to get his head in front and I would imagine he will be back out again on Monday as he has 3 entries at Stratford.
 
I have one in the opener at Worcester this afternoon. I don't think this is one to go overboard about, but I think there is value in having a small bet e/w on O'Faolains Lad. His pointing form suggest he could be up to running well off a mark of 89 and I suspect that the two hurdle runs were to get a handicap mark. As soon as he has got that handicap mark he has gone straight over fences which is no coincidence in my opinion. The favourite looks like he could still have improvement to come and is obviously pretty short so it might turn out O'Faolains Lad isn't up to beating him even if he does show he can win off this mark, but at 14/1 he is worth a small e/w bet in the expectation he will be capable of showing his pointing form now going handicapping over fences.
 
O'Faolains Lad e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred 4 places 1/5 odds
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23 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

3.35 York Mishriff 13/8, 7/4 WON 9/4F

5.20 York Bosh 4/1, 9/2      LOST

2.05 Carl Perfect News Evens WON 1/1 FAV

3.15 Carl Goobinator 13/8 N/R

1.40 Bath Cherrish 15/8 WON 2/1F

2.15 Bath Kaboo 4/5 N/R

3.25 Bath Manor Park 2/1 WON 3/1

5.00 Worc Beyond The Clouds 8/11 LOST

6.30 Worc Mr Tambourine Man 5/2 LOST

7.30 Worc Mulberry Hill 5/4, 11/8 WON 11/8F

6.15 Km Vitalline 6/4 WON 11/8F

11 Selections from 5 meetings.  I might try a trixie on the best priced ones; we''ll see.

Good luck to York players today

TWO NON RUNNERS, 6 WINNERS & 3 LOSERS THEREFORE 11 POINTS PROFIT LESS 3 = 8 OR £80 FOR A £10 STAKE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like Bet35 had the right price for Vitalline as it is now around 2/1 everywhere.

I have invested in a Trixie £2 win Trixie = £8.00 based upon the above big 3 selections.

1.40 Bath Cherrish 2/1

3.35 York Mishriff 2/1

6.30 Worc Mr Tambourine Man 2/1

Possible return of £108.00

Single:

5.20 York Bosh £2 win at 5.2 = profit of £8.43 if it wins

Not sure I would go for a recovery bet on the last leg if the first two fail in my Trixie, that would cost £4.00 at 2/1 and I may prefer to spend that on another £1 win Trixie/

Total stakes = £10.00 so far.

Now to look at the more complicated task of the best jockey/apprentice bookings of the day

Put off looking at the big guns jockeys/apprentices at York for now and will put up a few outsiders

4.35 Bath Disey's Edge (MP5) 50p win at 50/1 = £25.50 Return.  I have already backed Mollie Philips on Cherrish in my Trixie.  She's a diamond 18/96 19% and + £28.33 well worth a 50p investment

6.45 Km Almodovar Del Rio (SC3) un-raced so a speculative £1 win 12/1

7.45 Km Fred (BC/the canny Mark Johnston) could bounce back. £1 win at 16/1

8.15 Km Appellation (AK/RH) another that could bounce back £1 win at 14/1

Total stakes £13.50 so far.

I guess I should look at York but there are so many of my top jockeys/apprentices riding there it looks a nightmare to find winner(s)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
BIG 3 UPDATE
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All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

1.50 York - Major Jumbo @ 18/1

Has been overracing over 6f recently - including on soft ground which negates his peed - and I think the drop back in trip combined with this track, this ground and an easing in the weights can see him go very well from a handy position here.

2.25 York - Imperial Fighter @ 15/2

Hard to weigh up his debut success at Goodwood on soft ground with few horses coming out since but had a couple of rivals well behind that day who had shown some form prior to the race and couldn't have done it much better. Has all the right entries and at the prices, looks the value bet.

3.00 York - Yibir @ 17/2

Not always the easiest to predict but on his day he's very smart and put his best foot forward when winning at Newmarket two starts back. Pulled too hard at Goodwood behind several of these last time but the hood goes on today and the quicker ground looks sure to suit. Can see him bouncing back and going close today.

3.35 York - Alenquer @ 9/1

This looks set to be a classic and although Alenquer looks a stayer at this trip and will need things to drop right, his form is rock solid and he was up against a pace bias at Longchamp last time. I can see them being more positive today down in trip and he already has one of the best pieces of form this season under similar conditions at Sandown. Think he has been overlooked slightly here and is my pick of the 3 year olds.

4.10 York - Rajinsky @ 12/1

Typically consistent and although putting in a below par effort in the marathon race at Goodwood last time, he's the type to bounce back and can certainly be competitive again off this mark. Has run this track well before and the long straight will certainly help his style so can see little other than a positive performance today.

4.45 York - Princess Power @ 9/1

Consistent type who finds winning a challenge but is essentially off her lowest mark in a while with Tyler Heard's claim factored in and the cheekpieces might just give her a lift. Shapes like a good pace over the minimum trip is ideal and looks likely to go well at an each-way price.

5.20 York - Papa Cocktail @ 10/1

The form of his first two starts read very well in the context of this race - finishing 3rd behind two 100+ rated animals at Yarmouth before winning readily next time out and if repeating either of those two runs, will certainly be going close off a mark of 83. Disappointed, albeit in a group race at Newmarket when last seen but has had a break since and if that's done him some good, I think he'll go well.

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2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Meanwhile, all eyes on York but.....

Can any of you form experts tell me why vision des flos is around 14/1 for the 6:00pm at Worcester?

have you seen the form on that animal ffs?

I'm no authority on pricing up races, but Vision des flos came 3rd LTO but over hurdles. His last run in a chase he was well beaten, and his only success came in a match race.

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Looks like Bet35 had the right price for Vitalline as it is now around 2/1 everywhere.

I have invested in a Trixie £2 win Trixie = £8.00 based upon the above big 3 selections.

1.40 Bath Cherrish 2/1

3.35 York Mishriff 2/1

6.30 Worc Mr Tambourine Man 2/1

Possible return of £108.00

Single:

5.20 York Bosh £2 win at 5.2 = profit of £8.43 if it wins

Not sure I would go for a recovery bet on the last leg if the first two fail in my Trixie, that would cost £4.00 at 2/1 and I may prefer to spend that on another £1 win Trixie/

Total stakes = £10.00 so far.

Now to look at the more complicated task of the best jockey/apprentice bookings of the day

Put off looking at the big guns jockeys/apprentices at York for now and will put up a few outsiders

4.35 Bath Disey's Edge (MP5) 50p win at 50/1 = £25.50 Return.  I have already backed Mollie Philips on Cherrish in my Trixie.  She's a diamond 18/96 19% and + £28.33 well worth a 50p investment

6.45 Km Almodovar Del Rio (SC3) un-raced so a speculative £1 win 12/1

7.45 Km Fred (BC/the canny Mark Johnston) could bounce back. £1 win at 16/1

8.15 Km Appellation (AK/RH) another that could bounce back £1 win at 14/1

Total stakes £13.50 so far.

I guess I should look at York but there are so many of my top jockeys/apprentices riding there it looks a nightmare to find winner(s)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gone for fun bets at York.  well done to anyone who makes money there today

1.50 El Astornaute (win it 2018) £1 win at 25/1 + 50p win on Hurricane Ivor (TM) at 15/2

2.25 Imperial Fighter (OM) £1 win at 15/2

3.00 Yibir (JD) £1 win at 17/2

3.35 Macswinney (KM) £1 win at 18/1

4.10 Bodyline (LM/SmP) 50p win at 10/1 + Nicholas T (BR one to be watched I believe) 50p win at 22/1

4.45 Atiyah (WB) Up 11lbs but running well £1 win at 14/1

5.20 Instinctive Move (HC/CC) £1 win at 25/1

£7.50 looks cheap for an afternoon's entertainment.

Good luck to all PL members today at York, especially @TheBrigadierwho I'm sure will have some loyal followers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

1.50 York - Major Jumbo @ 18/1

Has been overracing over 6f recently - including on soft ground which negates his peed - and I think the drop back in trip combined with this track, this ground and an easing in the weights can see him go very well from a handy position here.

2.25 York - Imperial Fighter @ 15/2

Hard to weigh up his debut success at Goodwood on soft ground with few horses coming out since but had a couple of rivals well behind that day who had shown some form prior to the race and couldn't have done it much better. Has all the right entries and at the prices, looks the value bet.

3.00 York - Yibir @ 17/2

Not always the easiest to predict but on his day he's very smart and put his best foot forward when winning at Newmarket two starts back. Pulled too hard at Goodwood behind several of these last time but the hood goes on today and the quicker ground looks sure to suit. Can see him bouncing back and going close today.

3.35 York - Alenquer @ 9/1

This looks set to be a classic and although Alenquer looks a stayer at this trip and will need things to drop right, his form is rock solid and he was up against a pace bias at Longchamp last time. I can see them being more positive today down in trip and he already has one of the best pieces of form this season under similar conditions at Sandown. Think he has been overlooked slightly here and is my pick of the 3 year olds.

4.10 York - Rajinsky @ 12/1

Typically consistent and although putting in a below par effort in the marathon race at Goodwood last time, he's the type to bounce back and can certainly be competitive again off this mark. Has run this track well before and the long straight will certainly help his style so can see little other than a positive performance today.

4.45 York - Princess Power @ 9/1

Consistent type who finds winning a challenge but is essentially off her lowest mark in a while with Tyler Heard's claim factored in and the cheekpieces might just give her a lift. Shapes like a good pace over the minimum trip is ideal and looks likely to go well at an each-way price.

5.20 York - Papa Cocktail @ 10/1

The form of his first two starts read very well in the context of this race - finishing 3rd behind two 100+ rated animals at Yarmouth before winning readily next time out and if repeating either of those two runs, will certainly be going close off a mark of 83. Disappointed, albeit in a group race at Newmarket when last seen but has had a break since and if that's done him some good, I think he'll go well.

Some lovely picks

 

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1 hour ago, Bang on said:

I'm no authority on pricing up races, but Vision des flos came 3rd LTO but over hurdles. His last run in a chase he was well beaten, and his only success came in a match race.

yours is a fair argument but look deeper, this isn't exactly a "hard" race and you go through Visions form and what it has beaten and been beaten by and you wont find much better value today.

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47 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

yours is a fair argument but look deeper, this isn't exactly a "hard" race and you go through Visions form and what it has beaten and been beaten by and you wont find much better value today.

Runs off 128 , so keeps dropping down the weights, but I’m not convinced. Had a promising start to his chasing career, but just hasn’t kicked on. Ran against some big names but well beaten. That said off 128 you’d think he’s got a chance, so I see the value element .This isn’t the strongest race as you mention. I’m not sure they know what to do with him at the minute. 

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22 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Day one of my favourite meetings of the year - the York Ebor meeting and with the weather set fair it’s looking likely that the ground will be just perfect for the meeting. Here’s my thoughts on the four ITV TV races :- 

York 150

A maximum field of 22 go to post for this class 2  5F 89yd handicap and as you would imagine is a wide open race. If the ground was on the slow side I would be all over Pendleton who’s a very progressive sprinter but seems to be best with dig in the ground. Course specialist Copper Knight has won 5 of his 15 starts on the Knavesmire and looks sure to run his usual race and be thereabouts. The current favourite is the Henry Candy trained Twilight Calls who may have been inconvenienced by the soft ground last time out at Newmarket when a well backed favourite. He finished 4th that day beaten 3L by Whenthedealisdone and re-opposes on 6lb better terms today. That may not be enough however as Roger Teal’s winner looks the value play here. Always highly thought of by his trainer he appears to have improved for a gelding operation and is two from two since the cruelest cut of them all over 5F. A rise of 6lb for that Newmarket win may still under estimate his ability and as one of only 4 three year olds in the race can go close with William Buick (who’s two from two on him) in the plate. 

WHENTHEDEALISDONE 1 point each way @ 15/2 William Hill 1/5 123456

 

York 225

A small but select field of five go to post for the Group 3 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes. A strong case can be made for the front three in the betting with Noble Truth for Godolphin coming here on the back of a 2L win from Ehraz in a Newmarket maiden. That was his second career start as opposed to the runner up’s debut run and there may not be much between them now with Richard Hannon’s Shadwell owned Ehraz having bolted up since in a Ascot maiden. It would come as no shock were either of that pair to win but preference is for the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend who looked a group horse in the making when backed off the boards on his debut at Doncaster when pushed out to win a 7F novice stakes race by 5L. The second and third have both run well in defeat since giving the form some substance and this well bred half brother to three winners notably the smart Golden Pass could be very good. He’s very exciting and the one I want to be with today. The contest is made up by Goodwood maiden winner Imperial Fighter and 93 rated Royal Patronage. 

DUBAWI LEGEND 2 points win @ 2/2 Bet365

 

York 3.00

Eight go to post for this years renewal of the Group 2 1m 4F Great Voltigeur. Queens Vase winner Kemari has been absent since that victory and drops a couple of furlongs here carrying a 3lb penalty for that Royal Ascot win. He has nothing in hand on these on official ratings (in fact he comes out 7th best) and at around 5/2 represents poor value. The positive factor mind is that he takes a big chunk out of the betting thus providing value amongst the others. The key piece of form for this race is the Gordon Stakes run over the same trip at Goodwood 20 days ago. Sir Lucan finished runner up to Ottoman Emperor, 1 1/4L ahead of Third Realm with a further neck back to Youth Spirit and 6L back to Kemari’s stable mate Yibir. It’s easy enough to strike a line through the latter (and also Scope who has plenty to find). Watching the race back I’ll take Aidan O’Brien’s Sir Lucan to confirm the form but the Ballydoyle handler has High Definition in the field today and is the presumed pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore. If O’Brien feels High Definition is better than Sir Lucan than he could be the way to go here. He was undoubtably very disappointing in the Irish Derby last time when never going with any zest and beating only one home in the field of 11 beaten the best part of 30L. There was talk after that he had been struck into early in the race. He had previously chased home Hurricane Lane and Megallan in the Dante here where he stayed on to some effect and that form looks quite tasty now. I’m prepared to give him one more chance with Moore choosing him over Sir Lucan who holds plenty here although it’s unlikely to be pretty as he has come off the bridle early in all of of his four starts before staying on well. A good horse to back in running in the exchanges if that’s the way you like to play it. 

HIGH DEFINITION 1 point win @ 4/1 Unibet

 

York 3.35

A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes despite the late defection of ante post favourite St Marks Basilica. 7 have declared and my personal fancy is John and  Thady Gosden’s Mishriff who drops in trip here having not been disgraced when runner up to Derby winner Adayar in Ascot’s King George. Having won the best part of £10 million when winning two of the worlds most valuable races in the Saudi Cup and the Dubai Sheena Classic earlier this year, he appeared to just need an excellent third in the Eclipse when trading pretty short in running. 10F is maybe his optimum trip and he’s reportedly in excellent shape with his usual pilot David Egan on board. I’m very worried about this longer trip for Alcohol Free who attempts it for the first time whilst Mac Swiney may prefer softer ground. Love was 1 3/4L behind the selection at Ascot and may not be as effective back at 10F as well as being drafted in late following St Marks Basilica’s defection. Jim Crowley was very poor on William Haggas’s Mohaafeth over this track and distance last time although has his optimum conditions here. I can see him running well. Haggas also saddles Alenquer dropping in trip but he’ll need to step up on this years form which just leaves Juan Elcano who actually looks over priced here when you consider he finished a head in front of Mohaafeth over course and distance last time and is now 2lb better off. He’s five times bigger than his rival and looks over priced. I’ll stick with Mishriff but maybe a tiny saver  on Juan Elcano with Bet365's each way extra (if you can get on with them)

MISHRIFF 3 points win @ 7/4 Paddy Power

JUAN ELCANO 1 point each way extra Bet365 @ 25/1 1/4 1234

Hard finding winners on the Knavesmire so far but the nap goes in so no damage on the day. Thursdays selection's up soon. The Brigadier

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