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Racing Chat - Tuesday 17th August


Zilzalian
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Todays fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00

130 wolves     Sagitarius                 9/2     drifted to 7/1     2nd       (ran well)

555 leic           Sows                       7/1     Backed in to 7/2 fav      (disappointing) 

655 leic           Zuhair                       6/5    lost    took wlk in mkt     (poor)

455 leic           Rawyaan                  5/2     won

returns £2.40              bank down to £86.27

Edited by Zilzalian
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A few selections....

Hamilton

1.45    Fighter Pilot - 14/1 - ew - 5th

3.25    Platinumcard - 4/1 - win - 1st 🏆

           Dream With Me - 12/1 - ew  Non-runner

4.35    Paddyplex - 10/3 - win 1st 🏆

 

Leicester

4.55    Rawyaan - 5/2 - win - 1st 🏆

5.25    Bonita B - 4/1 - win 3rd

5.55    Desert - 11/2 - win 11th 

6.55    Urban War - 6/1 - ew 2nd

Edited by alexcaruso808
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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I'm too tired to work through the matched selections of the same three tipsters right now.  I will do so in the morning.

Nighty night

 

THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

Not many qualifiers today from 5 meetings including Ireland

(A) 2.50 Ham Line Of Descent 10/11

(B) 3.25 Ham Legendary Day 2/1, 11/5

(C) 4.35 Ham Wots The Wifi 13/8

(D) 5.35 Carl La Pulga EV

(B) (C) £5 win double = £42 poss return

(A), (D) £2 win double = Poss Return £7.63 In bet

Looks better value than a £1 win Yankee costing £11.00

Back a bit later with top jockey/apprentices selections

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not had much time to check out the jocks but just a few bets before I prepare lunch

1.30 Wolv Between The Sheets (WB) £1 win at 8/1

2.00 Wolv Adaaydreambeliver (DP) £1 win at 10/1

Oisin has 6 rides today, most at short prices, the best at 5/1 for good reason.  Possibly his best value chance is Fantaope but I haven't backed it yet

Time seems to disappear on me when I need it most for racing study

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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42 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

Not many qualifiers today from 5 meetings including Ireland

(A) 2.50 Ham Line Of Descent 10/11

(B) 3.25 Ham Legendary Day 2/1, 11/5

(C) 4.35 Ham Wots The Wifi 13/8

(D) 5.35 Carl La Pulga EV

(B) (C) £5 win double = £42 poss return

(A), (D) £2 win double = Poss Return £7.63 In bet

Looks better value than a £1 win Yankee costing £11.00

Back a bit later with top jockey/apprentices selections

 

 

 

Are you backing these selections, or are you just putting them here for info?  

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16 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Are you backing these selections, or are you just putting them here for info?  

Hi Alex. If l state a bet then I have made a bet.  I will tend to have a punt on the higher priced selections but I thought there was room for a values bet on these today.  It should be interesting t to see how these selections fare over the coming days.  You never know they may well do well at York 🤞

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4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Hope you went with it.

I never like a having a female jockey aboard when it's a tight finish.

It depends who she is for me 🤣

Seriously though, so sorry you lost.  I know you put your money where your mouth is.

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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Don't worry, I play the long game so I don't worry about losing days, weeks or months. I've had 5 winners followed by 3 losers so I can't complain.

My nap won at a shorter price and I use proportional staking so I'm not down too much for the day.

I'm down this month but I've had 7 winning months so I'm more than happy with how the year's gone so far.

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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

Not many qualifiers today from 5 meetings including Ireland

(A) 2.50 Ham Line Of Descent 10/11  Won 4/5 Fav

(B) 3.25 Ham Legendary Day 2/1, 11/5 Lost

(C) 4.35 Ham Wots The Wifi 13/8 Lost

(D) 5.35 Carl La Pulga EV Awarded race 4/5 Fav

(B) (C) £5 win double = £42 poss return

(A), (D) £2 win double = Poss Return £7.63 In bet

Looks better value than a £1 win Yankee costing £11.00

Back a bit later with top jockey/apprentices selections

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not had much time to check out the jocks but just a few bets before I prepare lunch

1.30 Wolv Between The Sheets (WB) £1 win at 8/1

2.00 Wolv Adaaydreambeliver (DP) £1 win at 10/1

Oisin has 6 rides today, most at short prices, the best at 5/1 for good reason.  Possibly his best value chance is Fantaope but I haven't backed it yet

Time seems to disappear on me when I need it most for racing study

 

 

 

I couldn't have got it more wrong about Oisin Murphy's rides; should have backed the first three.  Isn't hindsight wonderful

All this put me off a bit

I have had £1 to win on James Doyle's mount in the 5.25 at Leicester Girl In The Picture at 14/1

I also intended to do his other runner in the 5.55 Red Joan but the reports were so bad that I putt £2.30 on Tom Marquand's ride Adaay In Asia at 5.5 = £10.14 p if it wins with an insurance bet of £1 on Sows at 10/30 = £4.33 if it wins

Tom Marquand has a lot of rides their today, many at short prices so I think I will skip them

Hopefully La Pulga will win the 5.35 at Carlise so I can get my multiples money back

RESULTS UPDATE

Got my money back on my multiples as La Pulga was awarded the 5.35 race at Carlisle.  I'm a first past the post man myself but I have to go along with the rules and sometimes I get a return.

At least Tom obliged for me on Adaay In Asia so there was a net profit on the day of £6.79.  This made my new balance £791.64 (Bank £1056.22).

Oisin Murphy got the first three and my fancy came third.

Two out of four for the big three tipsters but since those two were odds on these produced a small loss at £10 level stakes.

Have to look at tomorrows cards now so let's hope that they throw up some interesting selections

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Hope you went with it.

I never like a having a female jockey aboard when it's a tight finish.

Think i would prefer holly doyle to crowley (too many "errors") but either way personally i prefer to disregard everything other than the horse and the race, Trainers and Jockeys are way down the list for me, but its good that you stuck with your selection even though it lost, i would certainly prefer being right about the horse and wrong about the jockey than drop the horse because a certain jockey is riding it.

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I agree, the jockey and trainer don't feature in my selection process.

I suppose that logically, everything else being equal, a male jockey will be better than a female jockey in a tight finish due to their physical strength.

Again it's probably all reflected in the odds.

I think I read somewhere that most punters are male and sexist so tend to avoid female jockeys who are therefore good value. I'm not sure if this applies in today's PC society.

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5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I agree, the jockey and trainer don't feature in my selection process.

I suppose that logically, everything else being equal, a male jockey will be better than a female jockey in a tight finish due to their physical strength.

Again it's probably all reflected in the odds.

I think I read somewhere that most punters are male and sexist so tend to avoid female jockeys who are therefore good value. I'm not sure if this applies in today's PC society.

From my point of view a horse doesn't get to a race track without a trainer sending it there and it doesn't get around a the race track without a jockey riding it.  I think that the the trainer and jockey element are a huge part of whether a horse will win a race on the day.  Trainers confound ratings and statistics by getting up to all kinds of tricks by racing horses under unsuitable conditions before they go for the win.  I don't know how one can build in these factors into ratings or statistics.  When it comes to the jockey, the most important part for me is that the recently successful ones are sought after by trainers/owners when they feel that their horse is in a race with a good chance of winning it.  Hence, it pays to look out for a successful top jockey or apprentice who is booked for a ride, especially when they do not usually ride them or have not been on the horse before.

  

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1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:

From my point of view a horse doesn't get to a race track without a trainer sending it there and it doesn't get around a the race track without a jockey riding it.  I think that the the trainer and jockey element are a huge part of whether a horse will win a race on the day.  Trainers confound ratings and statistics by getting up to all kinds of tricks by racing horses under unsuitable conditions before they go for the win.  I don't know how one can build in these factors into ratings or statistics.  When it comes to the jockey, the most important part for me is that the recently successful ones are sought after by trainers/owners when they feel that their horse is in a race with a good chance of winning it.  Hence, it pays to look out for a successful top jockey or apprentice who is booked for a ride, especially when they do not usually ride them or have not been on the horse before.

  

I agree with this.  All of my selections start with jockey and trainer and I go from there.  I think if you have a good jockey, who is an experienced tactician, that means a lot, especially on longer races. 

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9 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I agree with this.  All of my selections start with jockey and trainer and I go from there.  I think if you have a good jockey, who is an experienced tactician, that means a lot, especially on longer races. 

We all have our ways and opinions. The simple test of this revolves around 1 question. Do you make money betting on horses over time? If the answer is yes then you are doing the right thing, if the answer is no then the reverse is true. In my opinion the answer is in the name of the game "Horse race" betting. In all my years of experience one thing i truly  believe is that the starting point is the horse, the horse is at the top of the hierarchy all other considerations follow in the order of choosing. Personally for me it is this order. Horse, Horse, Horse, Going, Distance, My speed figures, Course, Weight. Nowhere in my Hierarchy are Jockeys, Trainers (unless all other things are equal), Tipsters.

On tipsters - the great Nick Mordin (systems expert) says, You cant make money backing favourites, Published Tipsters (the press) have to operate around about being right 30% of the time otherwise they are in danger of being replaced, the only way they can do this is mainly betting around the favs (win about 30% of the time). I once ran a database to find out how many times the fav won all the races at 1 meeting (back then it was 6/7 race cards) the three years i looked at, this it didn't happen once, that is a hell of a lot of meetings, i have noticed 1 meeting since (there may have been others) where it happened but that's it.

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As you say there are many strategies that we can use, the proof is whether we are one of the few that make profits.

I used to follow trainer stats but never made money, I just now concentrate on the horse and conditions and make profits.

To me the key is that you are unlikely to make a profit following the crowd, you have to go against popular opinion, although this is difficult and often seems illogical.

In form jockeys and in form trainers are often well publicised and therefore likely to be over bet. I think there may be value in following lesser known jockeys and trainers who are showing a good AE.

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On 8/17/2021 at 11:15 PM, alexcaruso808 said:

I agree with this.  All of my selections start with jockey and trainer and I go from there.  I think if you have a good jockey, who is an experienced tactician, that means a lot, especially on longer races. 

There was an horse that won yesterday called Bathiva . It was second on my ratings but it’s trainer Fergel O’Brien is in very good form. The horse also had Paddy Brennan guiding him around the track. I couldn’t help but think if it was head to head going up to the last that I’d rather be on Bathiva rather than on my top rated who had a 7Ibs claimer on board . Bathiva won . The yard are operating at 56% strike rate and Paddy Brennan 2/4 with one of those a second. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but next time I think I need to take trainer/jockey into account if a horse is right up there on my ratings . Bathiva was only half a point off my top rated. Saying that if mine had won I’d be saying trust the ratings so it works both ways and you can’t have it both ways.  My sole selection today happens to be a Fergel O’Brien horse, but that’s just coincidence. Probably finish last 😁

Edited by Villa Chris
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