Zilzalian Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 (edited) Todays fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00 130 wolves Sagitarius 9/2 drifted to 7/1 2nd (ran well) 555 leic Sows 7/1 Backed in to 7/2 fav (disappointing) 655 leic Zuhair 6/5 lost took wlk in mkt (poor) 455 leic Rawyaan 5/2 won returns £2.40 bank down to £86.27 Edited August 17, 2021 by Zilzalian update alexcaruso808, The Equaliser and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 (edited) A few selections.... Hamilton 1.45 Fighter Pilot - 14/1 - ew - 5th 3.25 Platinumcard - 4/1 - win - 1st ? Dream With Me - 12/1 - ew Non-runner 4.35 Paddyplex - 10/3 - win 1st ? Leicester 4.55 Rawyaan - 5/2 - win - 1st ? 5.25 Bonita B - 4/1 - win 3rd 5.55 Desert - 11/2 - win 11th 6.55 Urban War - 6/1 - ew 2nd Edited August 17, 2021 by alexcaruso808 Results update kroni, The Equaliser, Villa Chris and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 I'm too tired to work through the matched selections of the same three tipsters right now. I will do so in the morning. Nighty night Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger2256 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 August -13 1pt level stakes win only 16.00 Ham Peerless Percy 13/2 17.15 Sli Tim Rocco 14/1 18.05 Car Redesdale Rebel 16/1 Prices as of now b365 black rabbit and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 (edited) My one for today, free bet. Jordan electrics has ran well last couple of races, be interesting to see if he can make it 3 in the spin. Edited August 17, 2021 by fd1972uk black rabbit, The Equaliser and alexcaruso808 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offramp Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 I'm doing a thirty bob EW Lucky 15. alexcaruso808, The Equaliser, LEE-GRAYS and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, The Equaliser said: I'm too tired to work through the matched selections of the same three tipsters right now. I will do so in the morning. Nighty night THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS Not many qualifiers today from 5 meetings including Ireland (A) 2.50 Ham Line Of Descent 10/11 (B) 3.25 Ham Legendary Day 2/1, 11/5 (C) 4.35 Ham Wots The Wifi 13/8 (D) 5.35 Carl La Pulga EV (B) (C) £5 win double = £42 poss return (A), (D) £2 win double = Poss Return £7.63 In bet Looks better value than a £1 win Yankee costing £11.00 Back a bit later with top jockey/apprentices selections ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not had much time to check out the jocks but just a few bets before I prepare lunch 1.30 Wolv Between The Sheets (WB) £1 win at 8/1 2.00 Wolv Adaaydreambeliver (DP) £1 win at 10/1 Oisin has 6 rides today, most at short prices, the best at 5/1 for good reason. Possibly his best value chance is Fantaope but I haven't backed it yet Time seems to disappear on me when I need it most for racing study Edited August 17, 2021 by The Equaliser Update black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 6.45 sligo turbo 11/4 win £1 7.15 sligo steps march 12/1 e/w 50p 6.05 carlisle captain corelli 17/2 e/w 50p black rabbit, The Equaliser and alexcaruso808 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS Not many qualifiers today from 5 meetings including Ireland (A) 2.50 Ham Line Of Descent 10/11 (B) 3.25 Ham Legendary Day 2/1, 11/5 (C) 4.35 Ham Wots The Wifi 13/8 (D) 5.35 Carl La Pulga EV (B) (C) £5 win double = £42 poss return (A), (D) £2 win double = Poss Return £7.63 In bet Looks better value than a £1 win Yankee costing £11.00 Back a bit later with top jockey/apprentices selections Are you backing these selections, or are you just putting them here for info? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 (edited) Leic.555 Rose Mystica 17/2 skybet ew 4pl. 5th. Edited August 17, 2021 by Nigwilliam Result. The Equaliser and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: Are you backing these selections, or are you just putting them here for info? Hi Alex. If l state a bet then I have made a bet. I will tend to have a punt on the higher priced selections but I thought there was room for a values bet on these today. It should be interesting t to see how these selections fare over the coming days. You never know they may well do well at York ? alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Flat selection. Leicester 4.55 BAILEYSGUTFEELING 11/10 The Equaliser, black rabbit and alexcaruso808 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Rosies return 1.15 fantasising 2.50 black rabbit, The Equaliser and alexcaruso808 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Flat selection. Leicester 4.55 BAILEYSGUTFEELING 11/10 I was thinking of backing Rawyaan with Jim Crowley aboard but now I'm having second thoughts alexcaruso808 and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 6.45 sligo turbo 11/4 win £1 n/r 7.15 sligo steps march 12/1 e/w 50p 3rd 6.05 carlisle captain corelli 17/2 e/w 50p 2nd one more 6.55 leicester star shield 15/2 £1 e/w all bet365 Edited August 17, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS The Equaliser and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 4 hours ago, The Equaliser said: I was thinking of backing Rawyaan with Jim Crowley aboard but now I'm having second thoughts Hope you went with it. I never like a having a female jockey aboard when it's a tight finish. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Hope you went with it. I never like a having a female jockey aboard when it's a tight finish. It depends who she is for me ? Seriously though, so sorry you lost. I know you put your money where your mouth is. Edited August 17, 2021 by The Equaliser Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Don't worry, I play the long game so I don't worry about losing days, weeks or months. I've had 5 winners followed by 3 losers so I can't complain. My nap won at a shorter price and I use proportional staking so I'm not down too much for the day. I'm down this month but I've had 7 winning months so I'm more than happy with how the year's gone so far. gbettle, LEE-GRAYS and The Equaliser 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, The Equaliser said: THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS Not many qualifiers today from 5 meetings including Ireland (A) 2.50 Ham Line Of Descent 10/11 Won 4/5 Fav (B) 3.25 Ham Legendary Day 2/1, 11/5 Lost (C) 4.35 Ham Wots The Wifi 13/8 Lost (D) 5.35 Carl La Pulga EV Awarded race 4/5 Fav (B) (C) £5 win double = £42 poss return (A), (D) £2 win double = Poss Return £7.63 In bet Looks better value than a £1 win Yankee costing £11.00 Back a bit later with top jockey/apprentices selections ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not had much time to check out the jocks but just a few bets before I prepare lunch 1.30 Wolv Between The Sheets (WB) £1 win at 8/1 2.00 Wolv Adaaydreambeliver (DP) £1 win at 10/1 Oisin has 6 rides today, most at short prices, the best at 5/1 for good reason. Possibly his best value chance is Fantaope but I haven't backed it yet Time seems to disappear on me when I need it most for racing study I couldn't have got it more wrong about Oisin Murphy's rides; should have backed the first three. Isn't hindsight wonderful All this put me off a bit I have had £1 to win on James Doyle's mount in the 5.25 at Leicester Girl In The Picture at 14/1 I also intended to do his other runner in the 5.55 Red Joan but the reports were so bad that I putt £2.30 on Tom Marquand's ride Adaay In Asia at 5.5 = £10.14 p if it wins with an insurance bet of £1 on Sows at 10/30 = £4.33 if it wins Tom Marquand has a lot of rides their today, many at short prices so I think I will skip them Hopefully La Pulga will win the 5.35 at Carlise so I can get my multiples money back RESULTS UPDATE Got my money back on my multiples as La Pulga was awarded the 5.35 race at Carlisle. I'm a first past the post man myself but I have to go along with the rules and sometimes I get a return. At least Tom obliged for me on Adaay In Asia so there was a net profit on the day of £6.79. This made my new balance £791.64 (Bank £1056.22). Oisin Murphy got the first three and my fancy came third. Two out of four for the big three tipsters but since those two were odds on these produced a small loss at £10 level stakes. Have to look at tomorrows cards now so let's hope that they throw up some interesting selections Edited August 17, 2021 by The Equaliser RESULTS UPDATE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Hope you went with it. I never like a having a female jockey aboard when it's a tight finish. Think i would prefer holly doyle to crowley (too many "errors") but either way personally i prefer to disregard everything other than the horse and the race, Trainers and Jockeys are way down the list for me, but its good that you stuck with your selection even though it lost, i would certainly prefer being right about the horse and wrong about the jockey than drop the horse because a certain jockey is riding it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 I agree, the jockey and trainer don't feature in my selection process. I suppose that logically, everything else being equal, a male jockey will be better than a female jockey in a tight finish due to their physical strength. Again it's probably all reflected in the odds. I think I read somewhere that most punters are male and sexist so tend to avoid female jockeys who are therefore good value. I'm not sure if this applies in today's PC society. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Don't want zuhair to win, that's going to be a sore one if it comes off. Jordans electrics finished 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 (edited) 7.35 carlisle natchez trace 7/1 e/w Edited August 17, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 5 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: one more 6.55 leicester star shield 15/2 £1 e/w all bet365 2 places and n/r Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 5 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I agree, the jockey and trainer don't feature in my selection process. I suppose that logically, everything else being equal, a male jockey will be better than a female jockey in a tight finish due to their physical strength. Again it's probably all reflected in the odds. I think I read somewhere that most punters are male and sexist so tend to avoid female jockeys who are therefore good value. I'm not sure if this applies in today's PC society. From my point of view a horse doesn't get to a race track without a trainer sending it there and it doesn't get around a the race track without a jockey riding it. I think that the the trainer and jockey element are a huge part of whether a horse will win a race on the day. Trainers confound ratings and statistics by getting up to all kinds of tricks by racing horses under unsuitable conditions before they go for the win. I don't know how one can build in these factors into ratings or statistics. When it comes to the jockey, the most important part for me is that the recently successful ones are sought after by trainers/owners when they feel that their horse is in a race with a good chance of winning it. Hence, it pays to look out for a successful top jockey or apprentice who is booked for a ride, especially when they do not usually ride them or have not been on the horse before. alexcaruso808, gbettle and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, The Equaliser said: From my point of view a horse doesn't get to a race track without a trainer sending it there and it doesn't get around a the race track without a jockey riding it. I think that the the trainer and jockey element are a huge part of whether a horse will win a race on the day. Trainers confound ratings and statistics by getting up to all kinds of tricks by racing horses under unsuitable conditions before they go for the win. I don't know how one can build in these factors into ratings or statistics. When it comes to the jockey, the most important part for me is that the recently successful ones are sought after by trainers/owners when they feel that their horse is in a race with a good chance of winning it. Hence, it pays to look out for a successful top jockey or apprentice who is booked for a ride, especially when they do not usually ride them or have not been on the horse before. I agree with this. All of my selections start with jockey and trainer and I go from there. I think if you have a good jockey, who is an experienced tactician, that means a lot, especially on longer races. Villa Chris and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 9 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said: I agree with this. All of my selections start with jockey and trainer and I go from there. I think if you have a good jockey, who is an experienced tactician, that means a lot, especially on longer races. We all have our ways and opinions. The simple test of this revolves around 1 question. Do you make money betting on horses over time? If the answer is yes then you are doing the right thing, if the answer is no then the reverse is true. In my opinion the answer is in the name of the game "Horse race" betting. In all my years of experience one thing i truly believe is that the starting point is the horse, the horse is at the top of the hierarchy all other considerations follow in the order of choosing. Personally for me it is this order. Horse, Horse, Horse, Going, Distance, My speed figures, Course, Weight. Nowhere in my Hierarchy are Jockeys, Trainers (unless all other things are equal), Tipsters. On tipsters - the great Nick Mordin (systems expert) says, You cant make money backing favourites, Published Tipsters (the press) have to operate around about being right 30% of the time otherwise they are in danger of being replaced, the only way they can do this is mainly betting around the favs (win about 30% of the time). I once ran a database to find out how many times the fav won all the races at 1 meeting (back then it was 6/7 race cards) the three years i looked at, this it didn't happen once, that is a hell of a lot of meetings, i have noticed 1 meeting since (there may have been others) where it happened but that's it. LEE-GRAYS, Villa Chris, alexcaruso808 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 As you say there are many strategies that we can use, the proof is whether we are one of the few that make profits. I used to follow trainer stats but never made money, I just now concentrate on the horse and conditions and make profits. To me the key is that you are unlikely to make a profit following the crowd, you have to go against popular opinion, although this is difficult and often seems illogical. In form jockeys and in form trainers are often well publicised and therefore likely to be over bet. I think there may be value in following lesser known jockeys and trainers who are showing a good AE. LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 (edited) On 8/17/2021 at 11:15 PM, alexcaruso808 said: I agree with this. All of my selections start with jockey and trainer and I go from there. I think if you have a good jockey, who is an experienced tactician, that means a lot, especially on longer races. There was an horse that won yesterday called Bathiva . It was second on my ratings but it’s trainer Fergel O’Brien is in very good form. The horse also had Paddy Brennan guiding him around the track. I couldn’t help but think if it was head to head going up to the last that I’d rather be on Bathiva rather than on my top rated who had a 7Ibs claimer on board . Bathiva won . The yard are operating at 56% strike rate and Paddy Brennan 2/4 with one of those a second. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but next time I think I need to take trainer/jockey into account if a horse is right up there on my ratings . Bathiva was only half a point off my top rated. Saying that if mine had won I’d be saying trust the ratings so it works both ways and you can’t have it both ways. My sole selection today happens to be a Fergel O’Brien horse, but that’s just coincidence. Probably finish last ? Edited August 19, 2021 by Villa Chris Zilzalian and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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