Monday 16th August -Race Chat

[Villa Chris]

All eyes on Bangor for me. Two chases which I’ll attempt to make profit from . I’m not bothering with Hurdle races anymore. 
 

6.35 

I cannot split Mr Mafia and Wishfull Dreaming , so I’ve decided to split stakes and go with both. These two were 1-2 the other week with the latter 4Ibs better off this time for a 3 and a half length defeat, although having watched the race again Mr Mafia was eased near the line and the 12 year old is in very good form this year , and still handicapped to win. That’s not to say I think it’s a two horse race because the favourite Kabrit could be anything winning  2/2 chase starts without really being troubled. He’s up in class today against some hardened veterans, and with him being only 6, I fancy him to have a tough task here. He seems to like to race off the pace and then make headway late on, where as Mr Mafia likes to front run so will be good to see how that pans out. 
 

5 points win Mr Mafia 10/3

5 points win Wishfull Dreaming 7/2

8.05 

Sir TiVo rates the one to beat here. He’s in cracking form in his early years of chasing and seems to still be ahead of his mark. He’s been raised 7Ibs but his last RPR indicates  that may not be enough to halt him , add to that they have put a 7Ibs claimer on board to offset the rise which could help his cause even more. CD winner and heavily tipped . 
 

10 points win Sir TiVo 11/8 

-30 

Edited August 15, 2021 by Villa Chris

[alexcaruso808]

My selections are:

Catterick

1.45  Golden Rainbow - 4/1 - win - 5th

2.55  Hachert - 7/2 - win - 7th 

3.30  Langholm - 9/1 - ew 1st ?

         Oh So Woke - 9/4 win 8th

4.35  Captain Corcoran - 7/2 win 7th

         Mews House - 5/1 ew 1st ? - I shouldn't have done an ew bet for Mews House!  

 

Windsor

4.50 Jessie Pye - 12/1 ew 5th

5.25 Jazz Club - 8/1 EW 1st ?.  Again, I shouldn't have done an EW bet lol!!

 

All prices bet365

Good luck all.

Edited August 16, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[GaryS]

CATTERICK

1-45 LATIN LOVER 10/3

2-20 MO HENRY 6/1

2-55 HATCHERT 7/2

3-30 MUTAABEQ 4/1

4-05 NADEIN 4/9

4-35 MEWS HOUSE 5/1

5-08 G FOR GABRIAL 9/1

 

[MCLARKE]

Welcome to PL @GaryS

[GaryS]

Thanks

[Zilzalian]

Todays fun 40p lucky 15 =£6.00

535 bangor             Dawn Raider         12/1    lost

327 moulins            lilas de france        7/1     lost

350 Lingfield           Green door           11/1    lost          drifted to 28/1 (ran ok)

315 lingfield            algheed                 2/1      won        10/3 (bog favours us here) 

returns £3.07        bank down to £89.87

Edited August 16, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[roger2256]

August  -10

1pt level stakes win only 

13.00 Lin Montaqem 20/1

14.55 Cat Aliento 9/1

18.15 Ros El Pardre 25/1

19.35 Ban Zip Pearl 7/1 

Prices as of now b365 

 

[azzybear]

Sundayinmay 1.00 I'm a gambler 1.45

[black rabbit]

Maori Knight   6 55 windsor     1/2  pt   win    9/1   betfair

 

 

P/L   =  +  119.5   pts

[LEE-GRAYS]

5.35 bangor richie valentine 20/1 e/w 

[cannotbebeat]

2.55 Catterick Hachert 2/1

3.15 Lingfield Algheed 5/2

Good luck all CNBB.

[yossa6133]

Dawn Raider 14/1 into 5/1 in the 5:35 Bangor. Dropped to a good handicap mark (runs in this chase off 105, highest hurdles mark 128), and found a weak looking race if they have a plot going. Couldn't fancy it on recent form but I'll follow the money.

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Roscommon 5.45

KOJIN 3/1

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Dawn Raider 14/1 into 5/1 in the 5:35 Bangor. Dropped to a good handicap mark (runs in this chase off 105, highest hurdles mark 128), and found a weak looking race if they have a plot going. Couldn't fancy it on recent form but I'll follow the money.

I have backed/napped this today or last night i should say and got the 14/1, and to be honest i wouldn't touch it at 5/1 its all about value but fingers crossed and it wins.

[LEE-GRAYS]

5 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

5.35 bangor richie valentine 20/1 e/w 

winner 28/1 

[alexcaruso808]

2 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

winner 28/1 

Nice pick!  Out of interest, what made you pick Richie Valentine?

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Nice pick!  Out of interest, what made you pick Richie Valentine?

Was going to ask the same thing. Maiden hurdler on chase debut . 

[LEE-GRAYS]

Just now, alexcaruso808 said:

Nice pick!  Out of interest, what made you pick Richie Valentine?

Had a 100/1 not long ago unseated rider first race this horse 2 two race ago unseated rider last race up to jumps today and bottom weight but I like unseated bit unless you watch race you don’t know how good it was going that’s my theory anyway ?

[LEE-GRAYS]

3 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Had a 100/1 not long ago unseated rider first race this horse 2 two race ago unseated rider last race up to jumps today and bottom weight but I like unseated bit unless you watch race you don’t know how good it was going that’s my theory anyway ?

Shame my second pick on the French horses didn’t win else it would have been a really good day £20 challenge bet to go had 2 winners last todays so ?

[yossa6133]

Nice one Lee Grays! Mine seemed to travel well but never really looked like getting involved from 3 out.

[Villa Chris]

23 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

All eyes on Bangor for me. Two chases which I’ll attempt to make profit from . I’m not bothering with Hurdle races anymore. 
 

6.35 

I cannot split Mr Mafia and Wishfull Dreaming , so I’ve decided to split stakes and go with both. These two were 1-2 the other week with the latter 4Ibs better off this time for a 3 and a half length defeat, although having watched the race again Mr Mafia was eased near the line and the 12 year old is in very good form this year , and still handicapped to win. That’s not to say I think it’s a two horse race because the favourite Kabrit could be anything winning  2/2 chase starts without really being troubled. He’s up in class today against some hardened veterans, and with him being only 6, I fancy him to have a tough task here. He seems to like to race off the pace and then make headway late on, where as Mr Mafia likes to front run so will be good to see how that pans out. 
 

5 points win Mr Mafia 10/3

5 points win Wishfull Dreaming 7/2

8.05 

Sir TiVo rates the one to beat here. He’s in cracking form in his early years of chasing and seems to still be ahead of his mark. He’s been raised 7Ibs but his last RPR indicates  that may not be enough to halt him , add to that they have put a 7Ibs claimer on board to offset the rise which could help his cause even more. CD winner and heavily tipped . 
 

10 points win Sir TiVo 11/8 

-30 

Glad I split my stakes . Wishfull Dreaming wins , with Mr Mafia just pipped for second . 

[GaryS]

Take a bow Lee-Grays?

[LEE-GRAYS]

another outsider i like backing tony martin in handicaps

7.45 firstman 45/1 ewe 5places bet365

[LEE-GRAYS]

5 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

another outsider i like backing tony martin in handicaps

7.45 firstman 45/1 ewe 5places bet365

thats roscommon sorry

[Villa Chris]

On 8/15/2021 at 7:26 PM, Villa Chris said:

All eyes on Bangor for me. Two chases which I’ll attempt to make profit from . I’m not bothering with Hurdle races anymore. 
 

6.35 

I cannot split Mr Mafia and Wishfull Dreaming , so I’ve decided to split stakes and go with both. These two were 1-2 the other week with the latter 4Ibs better off this time for a 3 and a half length defeat, although having watched the race again Mr Mafia was eased near the line and the 12 year old is in very good form this year , and still handicapped to win. That’s not to say I think it’s a two horse race because the favourite Kabrit could be anything winning  2/2 chase starts without really being troubled. He’s up in class today against some hardened veterans, and with him being only 6, I fancy him to have a tough task here. He seems to like to race off the pace and then make headway late on, where as Mr Mafia likes to front run so will be good to see how that pans out. 
 

5 points win Mr Mafia 10/3

5 points win Wishfull Dreaming 7/2

8.05 

Sir TiVo rates the one to beat here. He’s in cracking form in his early years of chasing and seems to still be ahead of his mark. He’s been raised 7Ibs but his last RPR indicates  that may not be enough to halt him , add to that they have put a 7Ibs claimer on board to offset the rise which could help his cause even more. CD winner and heavily tipped . 
 

10 points win Sir TiVo 11/8 

-30 

Sir TiVo finishes second. Didn’t jump with fluency but the winner won well. 2.50 points profit on the night 

Chase profit/loss from 3 races -7.50

Edited August 16, 2021 by Villa Chris

[The Equaliser]

The Equaliser

 

Posted 23 hours ago (edited)

LIST OF NAMED HORSES CHOSEN BY THE SAME THREE TIPSTERS

3.50 Lin Seneca Chief 11/10 (11/8) 3rd Evens fav

2.20 Cat Quercus 6/4 (15/8) Won 2/1

4.05 Cat Nadein 4/11 Won 2/9

5.08 Cat Genesius 15/8 (2/1) 3rd 6/5 fav

5.25. Win Rose Barton 11/10 (5/4) 3rd 7/4 Fav

6.55 Win Glen Esk 2/1 (9/4) 4th 3/1

5.00 Bang First Street 11/8 Won 13/8 Fav

6.35 Bang Kabrit 2/1 4th 2/1 Fav

8.05 Bang Sir Tivo 6/4 2nd 7/4 Fav

7.15 Ros Ciel D'afrique 5/4 Won Evens Fav

Four winners but a loss of £11.53 at SP todayfor the big 3 tipsters

Some of these may be worth a second look ?

Lots to choose from the big 3/4 selections above.  Quite short prices available and I have only plumped for one so far.

Looking at the top jockeys/apprentices I see that the big guns Oisin Murphy, Will Buick and Tom Marquand all vie with each other at Windsor tonight.  This makes the selection process more problematic so as an early start I have decided to focus on James Doyle 31/151 = 21% -£58 om the All weather at Lingfield and Danny Tudhope 60/344 17% -£85.99 on turf at Catterick.

Quite amazing to think that even with a 21% strike rate a jockey will only win about 1 in 5 of his races.

James has 5 rides at Catterick so should at least get 1 winner, haha.  His first ride is Scherazade in the 1.00 Disappointed at Windsor last time and now back on polytrack.  I'll pass. He has Nepal in the 1.30 which seems to have plenty to prove. He has Smooth Spirit in the 2.40 that does look a lively contender.  He has Algheed in the 3.15 and Timeform seem to have doubts about this one.  Lastly he has Seneca Chief in the 3.50 which has the blessing of the big 3 and has 4lbs extra to carry.

Danny Tudhope has now only 2 rides at Catterick but I think we can safely disregard Thesethings happen in the 4.05 at 66/1 and up against the 1/4 favourite Nadein.  This leaves Oh So Woke in the 3.30 This is his best chance today.  It has drifted a bit in the betting as the market has plumped for Mutaabeq with Ben Curtis aboard.  I still thinks its worth taking a small punt on

My Trixie today is therefore:

2.40 Ling Smooth Spirit (JD) 7/4

3.30 Catt Oh SO Woke (DT) 10/3

3.50 Ling Seneca Chief (JD) 11/8

£2 win Trixie = £8.00 poss return of £114.07

Had £2.20 win on Oh So Woke at 15/4 = £10.45 Return if it wins

Total stakes so far = £10.20

Will now grapple with the Windsor contestants

Results Update

Got out of jail with The Princes Poet £2.50 win at 5.2 posted up on another page, therefore 9p profit on the day

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by The Equaliser