UEFA Super Cup > 11th August

[_Ghost_]

Not strictly the Champions League but thought this the best place for it...

Chelsea (ENG) v Villarreal (SPA)

 

Final Trends (since 2000-01)

 

ENG won 3/21 (losing 5 finals)

SPA won 12/21 (losing 7 finals)

14/21 won by UCL winner

9/21 drawn

3.00 average goals

2/21 <2 goals

11/21 >2

7/21 >3

15/21 BTTS

5/21 finished 1-1

 

England UCL/ UEL Record (4Y/ 2Y)

 

290-171-51-68 (0.70)

147-88-28-31 (0.71)

 

Spain UCL/ UEL Record (4Y/ 2Y)

 

279-144-68-67 (0.63)

133-67-30-36 (0.59)

 

Chelsea UCL/UEL (4Y/ 2Y)

 

44-27-11-6 (0.71)

2.95 average goals

10/44 <2

25/44 >2

14/44> 3

19/44 BTTS

 

21-12-5-4 (0.66)

2.62 average goals

6/21 <2

10/21 >3

5/21 >4

8/21 BTTS

 

Villarreal UEL Record (4Y/ 2Y)

 

34-19-10-5 (0.68)

2.68 average goals

9/34 <2

16/34 >2

12/34 >3

 

14-11-3-0 (0.80)

2.64 average goals

3/14 <2

6/14 >2

3/14 >3

7/14 BTTS

 

Nation H2H (4Y/ 2Y)

 

48-16-16-16

1.38-1.17

13/48 <2

24/48 >2

14/48 >3

24/48 BTTS

 

25-11-7-7

1.40-0.76

9/25 <2

10/25 >2

6/25 >3

9/25 BTTS

 

Thoughts

 

I think it's fair to say that Chelsea are the better of the two teams, with English sides also having a better European record than their Spanish counterparts over the last 4 and 2 year cycles. However the record of Spanish teams in this competition cannot be ignored, my feel is that they tend to take this more seriously than English clubs who may view this as a "European Community Shield" opposed to a genuine trophy. Personally I tend to share that opinion and won't be getting too involved; I think motivation could be a leveller and I'll stick half a point on the most common correct score over the last 20 years.

 

Bets

 

0.5pts - Draw 1-1 7/1 @ Bet365 (Bore Draw)

 

[harry_rag]

I've been matched on a couple of bets so far.

25 points on 45+ booking points at 2.52 on BF (using a 5 point bonus I'd been given)

12 points on Alcacer to score at 6.6 on BF

>4.5 cards was a similar (standout) price with one firm so makes sense to effectively get 45 points onside as a winner rather than a loser. I make it more like a 5/4 shot. Hopefully the game is played at a reasonably competitive pitch, with both firms keen to get a trophy in the cabinet, rather than it having a pre-season feel

Alcacer was on my radar as a possible bet at 4/1. Hopefully the person who layed my bet just has a different opinion of the true odds rather than having advance knowledge of the line ups. Moreno looks like a decent bet at 7/2 if starting.

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Alcacer was on my radar as a possible bet at 4/1. Hopefully the person who layed my bet just has a different opinion of the true odds rather than having advance knowledge of the line ups. Moreno looks like a decent bet at 7/2 if starting.

The former is on the bench unfortunately, the latter starts and I’ve been matched for 16 points at 4.7.

[harry_rag]

On 8/11/2021 at 9:53 AM, jamied02 said:

0.5pts - Draw 1-1 7/1 @ Bet365 (Bore Draw)

Well done. Thought to myself that the draw was interesting at 11/4 but didn't pursue it. No joy on the cards front with just 2 yellows but Moreno scored at a decent price and Alcacer was void.