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Champions League Predictions > Aug 10th

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Rangers v Malmo: 20 points on <50 booking points at 6/4 Sky Bet or PP

This feels counter intuitive for a finely poised 2nd leg qualifying tie but I still feel that the odds are too big. In the first leg I backed 60+ points at the same price based on the ref's stats in qualifying rounds (and won with nothing to spare), this time I'm persuaded to go low by the ref's stats in all CL and EL games.

The spreads are pitched at 55-58 which suggests 6/4 is more or less fair for under 50 points. The ref has gone under that line in 3/5 CL qualifying ties, 8/17 for all CL games, 6/11 EL qualifiers and 25/47 for all CL and EL games combined. I think this would be roughly evens in a typical game controlled by this ref (Vincic) and shouldn't be as big as 6/4 even given what's at stake tonight. There's a good chance that this will look like a silly bet by half time but, in the long run, I'm happy to take on apparently wrong prices whether for unders or overs.

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I'm also going to follow up on a winning goalscorer bet from the first leg. Buy Birmancevic goal rush plus for 2.5 points at 4 with SPIN

Equates to 6.25 anytime versus best available odds of 5/1 but with a significant bonus on top if he scores more than once (pays 25 points for 1 goal, 50 for 2 and 100 for 3+). Whilst I doubt the bonus element will be relevant it would be foolish to pass it up when the odds are best available. Whilst Malmo don't need to score (initially at least) I think they'll get chances if Rangers are chasing a goal or if Rangers end up scoring early on and they need to respond. Birmancevic has hit the ground running in his first season in Sweden and appeals at the price.

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