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Tennis Tips - August 23 - August 29


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  • 4 weeks later...

Alexey Vatutin  (-1.5) to beat Yu Hsiou Hsu at 1.80 with Pinnacle

Alexey Vatutin played his first ever official match on clay court in 2020, while Hsu Yu Hsiou in 2017. But then he took a break for 4 years from clay court, and came back on the 8th of June 2021. Meanwhile Vatutin played a lot of matches and gained a lot of experience. He also loves this type of court, he's a fast player with good serves. Hsu Yu Hsiou is a little bit out of shape, and the confidence and experience of the russian player should win this game.

 

Edited by Hiro
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Anna Blinkova to beat Jill Belen Teichmann at 3.40 with Pinnacle

Teichmann had a massive week last week, but this is a tight schedule and, with the US Open coming up, I wouldn't be surprised by see her losing early. Or even withdrawing for the event, for all you know. She's the better player of the two, but Blinkova has beaten her before and can play a very decent standard herself. Wouldn't go near it at these odds in normal circumstances, but what's on offer is anything but.

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Jordan Thompson to beat Guido Pella at 1.62 with Pinnacle

The australian with his mustache is a trustable player. He's a great hard court player, his serves are great, he's preserving and metally strong. He belongs to that category of players, that can show their knowledge every single time on the same level. His achievments are mostly achieved by his hard work. Guido Pella is a clay-court specialist, but he's doing okay on hardcourt, too. Thompson's victroy seems realistic, even though he doesn't want to injure himself before the U.S. Open, he will take this match seriously.

Edited by Hiro
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5 minutes ago, Hiro said:

Jordan Thompson to beat Guido Pella at 1.62 with Pinnacle

The australian player with his mustache is a trustable player. He's a great hard court player, his serves are great, he's preserving and metally strong. He belongs to that category of players, that can show their knowledge every single time on the same level. His achievments are mostly achieved by his hard work. Guido Pella is a hard court-specialist, but he's doing okay on clay, too. Thompson's victroy seems realistic, even though he doesn't want to injure himself before the U.S. Open, he will take this match seriously.

Pella is a clay-court specialist, and the opposite is that he's doing ok on hardcourt to.

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Tim Van Rijthoven - Emiliano Maggioli over 19.5 games at 1.69 with Pinnacle

These are 2 players, that are on the same level of knowledge, even tho the ATP-ranking doesn't show us that. It will be an intresting match today in Barletta, definitely worth to take a look at their match. It shouldn't be very smooth for Van Rijthoven, that's why the potency is in the number of games.

Edited by Hiro
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Gasquet to beat Gerasimov at 1.57 with bet365

I take Gasquet because he has played so much better than Gerasimov during the last months. He reached the Final in Umag (he lost it against Alcaraz) and then, in Cincinatti, he beat Verdasco and Munar before losing in 2 tight sets against Murray. Gerasimov has been a mess this year (13-21) and he comes from a really bad streak. In Washington he lost in straight sets against Ivashka and then he was destroyed by Nishioka in Cincinatti (6-2, 6-3). He has struggled in his first round here to beat Gombos (7-6, 3-6, 6-2), who was in a really bad form (4 losing streak).

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Steve Johnson (-2.5) to beat Alexei Popyrin at 1.87 with Pinnacle

Johnson feels comfortable on hard-court, and he's very confident right now. He's in great shape, he definietly should take adventage of this match. Popyrin's doing okay, but he's a bit out of his normal form compared to his real knowledge. If Johson can put himself mentally together, it won't be very challenging for him to beat his australian opponent. 

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Andrea Arnaboldi - Juan Manuel Cerundolo under 19.5 games at 2.16 with Pinnacle

Andrea suffered an injury during his training yesterday, which the bookies don't know, plus Juan's already a more advenced player, there's no chance for Andrea this time, it should  be a very smooth match today in Barletta.

 

Edited by Hiro
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53 minutes ago, Hiro said:

Andrea Arnaboldi - Juan Manuel Cerundolo under 19.5 games at 2.16 with Pinnacle

Andrea suffered an injury during his training yesterday, which the bookies don't know, plus Juan's already a more advenced player, there's no chance for Andrea this time, it should  be a very smooth match today in Barletta.

 

I'm so sorry guys I meant the opposite(even by the advenced player)!!!! Im really sorry! 

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US Open Q.

Ruse (vs. Cepede Royg) + Krystina Pliskova (vs. Savinykh) at 1.80 with bet365

Ruse is one of the players who has impressed me this year (23-12). In July she won in Hamburg, where she beat players as Teichmann, Collins, Yastremska and Petko, and she reached the Final in Palermo. I could see her in Hamburg and she played incredibly well. I know all these matches were played on clay but she also has some good wins on hard. A few months ago she beat Juvan, Mladenovic and Kovinic in Dubai, and she was very close to beat Siniakova in the SFs (3-6, 7-6, 4-6). Cepede has a negative record this year (8-12) and most of her matches have been against low ranked players in ITF tournaments. Both players' best surface is clay but Ruse is in another level right now. Krystina's year hasn't been good (10-15) but the difference between these players is big. The russian has more wins this year (23-18) but most of her matches have been against low ranked players. Almost every time she has faced decent players (Di Lorenzo, Gasanova, Yafan Wang, Lepchenko, Schmiedlova...) she has been defeated easily in straight sets. The only time she did well against decent players was during the AO (she passed the qualification and she won a set against Cornet in the 1st round...).

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Marton Fucsovics (-1.5 sets) to beat Yosuke Watanuki at 1.65 with Pinnacle

Fucsovics is a very good player, his physicial capabilities are great, he's strong. He's also quick and an advenced player, his serves are strong. Watanuki is younger than his opponent, he's also a great player, and he works very hard, but he's not on the same level as Fucsovics is. Fucsovics is also mentally strong and he won't give his opponent the oppurtunity to win a set.

Edited by Flamingo
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38 minutes ago, i2ickytang said:

any other matches you wagering on HIRO?

1st: @Flamingo 's prediction with Pinnacle

2nd: Alexander Bublik to beat Emil Ruusuvuori at 2.00 with bet365

Ruusuvuori is currently great, but won't get over Bublik, he's a better player and he'll prove it to us tonight! 

Edited by Hiro
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Jan-Lennard Struff - Gianluca Mager over 21.5 games with at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Both players are out of shape, they both lost 4 out of their last 5 matches. They both are a but tired. This match shouldn't go smoothly for neither of the players, they will play a lot of games and it definietly will be an interesting game today, but also a little bit chaotic, too. 

 

Edited by Hiro
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@CzechPunter It's obvious that @Hiro and @Flamingo are the same person... The typing is exactly the same and he use the same strange expressions (e.g. "advEnced player"). He's even recommending his own predictions with his other account...It's hilarious

I think @i2ickytang wants more bets from you, Hiro. Go on!
 

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11 minutes ago, darko08 said:

@CzechPunter It's obvious that @Hiro and @Flamingo are the same person... The typing is exactly the same and he use the same strange expressions (e.g. "advEnced player"). He's even recommending his own predictions with his other account...It's hilarious

I think @i2ickytang wants more bets from you, Hiro. Go on!
 

Yea sure, its very obvious! Please ban both of MY accounts

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Marketa Vondrousova to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.44 with Pinnacle

Happy even with this shorter price, Vondrousova is leagues above AvU these days and she cares about pre-GS events most of the time. She was fine in her first match as well, losing just two games. It was against a nobody, but the result shows that she's ready physically, etc.

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Katerina Siniakova/Nagi Hanatani under 16.5 games at 2.20 with Unibet

I can't see any possible scenario where Siniakova doesn't win this match with most likely 4 breaks of serve. 2 breaks in each set or likely more. Hanatani has never played a full match against a player as Siniakova ranked steadily in the year end top 100 of the WTA rankings. Hanatani is 26 years old and only got to this second round after Blinkova retired. Not very fair to set 17 games or more in the match as the favourite pricing. So based on Unibets decision to set under 16.5 games as underdog pricing I don't see any scenario where Siniakova doesn't win easily with at least 4 breaks. Hanatanis career high ranking is 356 one year ago but now she's fallen down to 402. 

Please give me some input on this post or comment and tell me if anyone thinks this can go over 16 games.

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30 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Please give me some input on this post or comment and tell me if anyone thinks this can go over 16 games.

A very clear and concise post that makes a persuasive case for the bet being value and I wish you well with it. The price on the unders lines has certainly been shortening. Perhaps surprisingly, the spreads price for total games (across the 2 main firms) is 18.1 to 18.75, so that would be a reasonable sell and an unwise buy based on your assessment, buyers needing 19 games to show the slightest profit.

Obviously the game can go over 16 games and it's just a matter of your informed opinion of the chances of it doing so. Whilst you're happy to be able to get that price for under 16.5 games I assume you'd be wary of laying me double digit odds about the overs!

Out of interest, does anyone on here ever spread bet on tennis? I don't think I've ever noticed anyone doing so. Is that because you don't think the spreads offer any value compared to fixed odds or just that you've never really considered spread betting?

Sorry for the intrusion into tennis, just jealous of the degree of input and response that you get on here (and horse racing) compared to the "bigger balls" sports that I prefer to bet on!

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

A very clear and concise post that makes a persuasive case for the bet being value and I wish you well with it. The price on the unders lines has certainly been shortening. Perhaps surprisingly, the spreads price for total games (across the 2 main firms) is 18.1 to 18.75, so that would be a reasonable sell and an unwise buy based on your assessment, buyers needing 19 games to show the slightest profit.

Obviously the game can go over 16 games and it's just a matter of your informed opinion of the chances of it doing so. Whilst you're happy to be able to get that price for under 16.5 games I assume you'd be wary of laying me double digit odds about the overs!

Out of interest, does anyone on here ever spread bet on tennis? I don't think I've ever noticed anyone doing so. Is that because you don't think the spreads offer any value compared to fixed odds or just that you've never really considered spread betting?

Sorry for the intrusion into tennis, just jealous of the degree of input and response that you get on here (and horse racing) compared to the "bigger balls" sports that I prefer to bet on!

I do spreadbetting, I have done it for years and I've posted many spreadbets with motivation before in here. But one thing is that I don't do mutch spreadbetting right now.

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2 picks for the US Open qualification matches:

ATP O'CONNELL -2.5 GAMES OVER CELIKBILEK  @ 1.54 at pinnacle
O'Connell with a lot of good matches lately in inbledon and in Atlanta, he is a better player than his ranking might suggest at the moment.

WTA OUDIN-PIERI 2:0 SETS @ 1.38-1.4 at bet365, betvictor and others 
Oudin also have had a lot of good matches in the last couple of months, she is very consistent and is simply a better player than Pieri.
 

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Gasquet to beat Evans at 2.10 with bet365
Giron to beat Herbert at 1.57 with bet365
Bucsa (+4.5 Games) to beat Kozlova at 1.72 with Pinnacle

I have seen both players' last matches. Gasquet wasn't brilliant but he still beat Gerasimov in 2 sets. In relation to the Evans-Pouille match, I have to say that both players were horrible. Besides, both required a MTO. Pouille had some kind of back problem while Evans was treated for some kind of foot problem. At these odds I go with Gasquet.
I take Giron over Herbert cause he plays home and he has been better than Herbert in the last tournaments. The american player has beat Bagnis and Delbonis in straight sets and she beat JJ Wolf and Koepfer in Cincinatti, before losing against Bublik in a 3 set match (decided by a TB). Herbert is playing his first tournament since Wimbledon. He played the qualification and he lost a set against Eduardo Nava (ranked 1761). I saw Nava against Monteiro and I just can't understand how Herbert could lost a set against that guy... After that, he lost the whole match against Tung-lin Wu (ranked 276). As a LL he has beat Coria in straight sets. 
I will go against the market in this one. IMO, the difference between these players is not that big. The spaniard has improved a lot and she has had a good year (24-20).  At the beginning of this month she beat McHale and Arconada in straight sets in Concord, before losing against Brengle in the QFs. She lost her last match easily against Frech, but, as I said before, she has had a good year and she has achieved some really good wins. In Doha, she beat Krejcikova in straight sets (she was at 5.00). Kozlova is 15-12 this year. She did play in Chicago. She beat Zanevska in a tight 3 set match (decided by a TB), and then she lost against Diatchenko in 3 sets.

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1 hour ago, WinningTipster said:

2 picks for the US Open qualification matches:

ATP O'CONNELL -2.5 GAMES OVER CELIKBILEK  @ 1.54 at pinnacle
O'Connell with a lot of good matches lately in inbledon and in Atlanta, he is a better player than his ranking might suggest at the moment.

WTA OUDIN-PIERI 2:0 SETS @ 1.38-1.4 at bet365, betvictor and others 
Oudin also have had a lot of good matches in the last couple of months, she is very consistent and is simply a better player than Pieri.
 

Which Oudin are you refering to? Is it Melanie?

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