Tennis Tips - August 2 - August 8

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Nick Kyrgios to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.56 with Pinnacle

Washington is a place Nick liked a couple years back and he looked decent enough last week, glad that he stayed for the doubles and I'm not too worried about the Norrie loss. There's 1.5 class between him and McDonald when Nick plays well, as McDonald can't outrun the sheer power that Nick has. Also, there will be a lot of free serve points as usual. Something like 1.40 would be fair here imo.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Nick Kyrgios to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.56 with Pinnacle

Washington is a place Nick liked a couple years back and he looked decent enough last week, glad that he stayed for the doubles and I'm not too worried about the Norrie loss. There's 1.5 class between him and McDonald when Nick plays well, as McDonald can't outrun the sheer power that Nick has. Also, there will be a lot of free serve points as usual. Something like 1.40 would be fair here imo.

An interesting assessment. I'm not sure I could back Kyrgios at a price like that when it's impossible to know if he'll be interested or not. Also, there were hardly any free points for Kyrgios on serve against Norrie, because his serve was non-existent. A repeat of that would give McDonald every chance, although as you say Kyrgios has the game to win this handily enough if he's motivated and plays well.

[four-leaf]

5 hours ago, Torque said:

An interesting assessment. I'm not sure I could back Kyrgios at a price like that when it's impossible to know if he'll be interested or not. Also, there were hardly any free points for Kyrgios on serve against Norrie, because his serve was non-existent. A repeat of that would give McDonald every chance, although as you say Kyrgios has the game to win this handily enough if he's motivated and plays well.

I rate Cam Norrie highly after his season this year and that is something Mackie isn't close to. Not very strange that Cam could make Nick pay but Mackie honestly doesn't have that capability. Saw Mackie losing to Ruusuvuori and it didn't leave any bigger impression on me. Nick can at least make it difficult enough for Mackie with his serve to avoid any rallies going far enough for Mackie to find the amount of winners that would be needed for a break or two.

[Torque]

33 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

I rate Cam Norrie highly after his season this year and that is something Mackie isn't close to. Not very strange that Cam could make Nick pay but Mackie honestly doesn't have that capability. Saw Mackie losing to Ruusuvuori and it didn't leave any bigger impression on me. Nick can at least make it difficult enough for Mackie with his serve to avoid any rallies going far enough for Mackie to find the amount of winners that would be needed for a break or two.

I wasn't talking about how well Norrie did or didn't play. What I was saying was that Krygios had a terrible day on serve, independently of anything Norrie was doing.

[Torque]

And that if he serves poorly again, coupled with a lack of interest then McDonald will have a chance.

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, Torque said:

And that if he serves poorly again, coupled with a lack of interest then McDonald will have a chance.

Yes Kyrgios is such a deceptive character..

[four-leaf]

12 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Nick Kyrgios to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.56 with Pinnacle

Washington is a place Nick liked a couple years back and he looked decent enough last week, glad that he stayed for the doubles and I'm not too worried about the Norrie loss. There's 1.5 class between him and McDonald when Nick plays well, as McDonald can't outrun the sheer power that Nick has. Also, there will be a lot of free serve points as usual. Something like 1.40 would be fair here imo.

But @CzechPunter it was as late as 2019 that Nick actually won this event. Do you mean two years when you say "a couple years back"?

[CzechPunter]

There was no 2020 edition anyway.

[CzechPunter]

Reilly Opelka to beat Daniel Galan at 1.36 with Pinnacle

I watched how Galan played against Paul in the first round and it was decent, but Paul was just truly awful on the day. Plenty of simple shots went out or into the net, while his serves weren't on point either. Other than that, Galan remains a Challenger player to me and an average one at that. It's short odds, but Opelka will care about this event and he looked fine in Atlanta. A tad unlucky not to beat Fritz there.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, that was bloody awful from Nick, just the worst side of him turned up again. I was impressed by Berankis, though. If he gets good odds or the right opponent for the next round, I'll be on board.

[four-leaf]

Caroline Garcia to beat Daria Kasatkina at 2.55

Caroline looked decent in the olympics though losing to Donna in 3 but she was decent that match. Daria hasn't played since SW19 second round. She doesn't make me feel confident so I think Caroline to win this is possible.

Reilly Opelka to beat (-1.5 sets) Daniel E Galan at 1.98

I guess Reilly can be taken to a tie-break but I still think he is the stronger player in a breaker and should get the win in two.

Kei Nishikori to beat Alexander Bublik at 1.56

Kei looked very good in the olympics till he faced Nole and betting on Bublik who's best result in Washington is one appearance in second round and it's his only appearance here. Kei has been in Washington plenty of times and he should have something to say here.

Magda Linette/Petra Martic over 2.5 sets at 2.38

Two meetings in their head-to-head and Magda won both in 3 sets. I think this could go to 3 sets again.

Fourfold at 18.75 with Unibet

[four-leaf]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, that was bloody awful from Nick, just the worst side of him turned up again. I was impressed by Berankis, though. If he gets good odds or the right opponent for the next round, I'll be on board.

I hope you don't consider Ric Berankis to win because he will likely face De Minaur.

Edited August 4, 2021 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

Well, depends on what happens in Johnson-De Minaur, how they play, etc. No point in guessing beyond that.

[Torque]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

I hope you don't consider Ric Berankis to win because he will likely face De Minaur.

Berankis can beat De Minaur. If Elahi Galan can beat De Minaur - which he did in Miami - then Berankis can beat De Minaur.

[CzechPunter]

I'd rather be on Berankis than Johnson, but the odds look fair to me. No bet.

[four-leaf]

Ricardas Berankis to beat Steve Johnson at 2.10 with Unibet

Ric seems to be pretty solid this week. I think he will have something to say tonight. 

Seb Korda to beat Jannik Sinner at 2.07 with Unibet

Seems to be that Seb is the one playing lights out tennis this week. Unless Rafa stops him in the final i don't know who can stop him. 

 

[CzechPunter]

Good luck with Berankis!

[Robinnho]

Berankis lost 2-6, 1-6!

[CzechPunter]

Quite some madness in Harris-Nadal, definitely a bad omen for Nadal's US Open chances.

[four-leaf]

Juan Pablo Varillas to beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry at 2.31 with local bookie

I think this looks like a strange choice by the bookies making Varillas such an underdog.

[Torque]

13 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Quite some madness in Harris-Nadal, definitely a bad omen for Nadal's US Open chances.

I think he's lost some confidence in his game. Whether it's injuries or age or a higher number of players able to compete with him I'm not sure, but what's noticeable to me is his break points saved numbers seem to be way down on what they were even a few years ago. If you're feeling invincible - which Nadal certainly has in the past - then you swat away break points without any trouble and that's what Nadal always used to do. If you're low on confidence, those break points take on a much higher level of pressure because you start to think you might not save them and it seems like Nadal is increasingly buckling under that pressure.

I don't think he's got much chance at the US Open, but I'd never write him off completely because he always has a great attitude and you know he'll give everything he has to try to win. As far as losing to Harris goes, the writing was on the wall when he beat Sock in the last round. He wasn't convincing and he should have lost and where Sock came up just short, Harris was able to get over the line - although it would have been interesting to see if he could have served it out, rather than breaking for the win.

[CzechPunter]

I noticed that Sock played quite well in that match, certainly getting back to his game. Could be dangerous to many favorites on US soil.

[darko08]

18 hours ago, Torque said:

I think he's lost some confidence in his game. Whether it's injuries or age or a higher number of players able to compete with him I'm not sure, but what's noticeable to me is his break points saved numbers seem to be way down on what they were even a few years ago. If you're feeling invincible - which Nadal certainly has in the past - then you swat away break points without any trouble and that's what Nadal always used to do. If you're low on confidence, those break points take on a much higher level of pressure because you start to think you might not save them and it seems like Nadal is increasingly buckling under that pressure.

I don't think he's got much chance at the US Open, but I'd never write him off completely because he always has a great attitude and you know he'll give everything he has to try to win. As far as losing to Harris goes, the writing was on the wall when he beat Sock in the last round. He wasn't convincing and he should have lost and where Sock came up just short, Harris was able to get over the line - although it would have been interesting to see if he could have served it out, rather than breaking for the win.

It's pretty obvious you havent seen him playing. He has been playing with physical problems... To be more exact, he's having problems with his foot, again. It was very noticeable  when he played against Sock and he confirmed that after the match. So now im wondering, what's the point of doing statements like that when you even haven't seen him playing..?

[Torque]

2 hours ago, darko08 said:

It's pretty obvious you havent seen him playing. He has been playing with physical problems... To be more exact, he's having problems with his foot, again. It was very noticeable  when he played against Sock and he confirmed that after the match. So now im wondering, what's the point of doing statements like that when you even haven't seen him playing..?

I have seen him play. I know he's got a foot problem. I still stand by what I said, which is my opinion. Yours may be different and that's fine. Also, I wasn't just talking about his last couple of matches - I was talking about what looks to me to be a decline in what used to be a key metric in his success which is saving break points.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Torque

[darko08]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

I have seen him play. I know he's got a foot problem. I still stand by what I said, which is my opinion. Yours may be different and that's fine. Also, I wasn't just talking about his last couple of matches - I was talking about what looks to me to be a decline in what used to be a key metric in his success which is saving break points.

Well, you talked about his last 2 matches but you did not mention anything about his foot problems. Without counting his last match he only has been defeated by Rublev, Tsitsipas, Sascha and Djokovic during this year. He won in Barcelona and Rome and only the best Nole I have seen in the last years separated him from winning the FO. That being said, I have to say that I found really odd the reason you gave to explain Nadal's decline (the break points saved thing). When you play against the best players crucial points usually decide the outcome of the match but you only mention the break points saved..., what about the break points converted? Or what about all the other important aspects as 1st serves in play, 1st and 2nd serve points won,etc.? Anyways, let's see how Nadal has done in that aspect (BP's saved) during this year (only against the best players he has played).

Tsitsipas - AO - 3/5 (60%) 
Rublev - Montecarlo - 8/15 (53%) 
Tsitsipas - Barcelona - 11/13 (85%)
Sascha - Madrid - 3/6 (50%)
Sascha - Rome 9/10 (90%)
Nole - Rome 5/8 (63%)
Nole - FO 14/22 (64%)

Honestly, I don't think these stats are bad (and notice that 4 of those 7 matches were matches that Nadal lost). Actually, in ALL those matches his opponent had worse stats than him on BP's saved (except for the match he played against Sascha in Madrid were both players have a 50%).

Nadal's decline will be a matter of age, not " a bad % of BP's saved..."

[Torque]

Interesting stats - however, not relevant to the point I was making. My point was that his break point saved numbers seem lower than they used to be - although as I said I have not checked, it's just a 'feel' I get from watching his matches (which is ironic as you suggested I haven't been watching his matches). 

The stats that would be relevant are a comparison between Nadal's break point saved numbers from two or three years ago and now. Also, not all break points are created equal. Some carry a great deal more pressure than others, for example Nadal failed to save break point against Harris and that break point was also match point and it seems to me that he's losing more 'key' break points than he used to. 

Finally, I never said Nadal's decline would be exclusively on account of declining break point saved numbers - It will be a part of the picture, but only a part and you're right to say that other stats like first serve percentage and break points converted are also important.

[darko08]

On 8/7/2021 at 6:15 PM, Torque said:

it's just a 'feel' I get from watching his matches (which is ironic as you suggested I haven't been watching his matches).

Obviously, I was talking about the matches that Nadal played in Washington (vs Sock and Harris)... You used them as a part to defend your decline theory but neither you nor Czech mentioned that he was carrying foot problems during those matches. Honestly, I still think that none of you saw him in Washington, otherwise you wouldn't consider those matches as an indicator to evaluate his chances on future events or use them as a part to defend a possible decline of the player.

On 8/7/2021 at 6:15 PM, Torque said:

Also, not all break points are created equal. Some carry a great deal more pressure than others

Well, that's reason why I picked the most important matches that Nadal has played during this year. QFs of the AO (6-3, 6-2, 6-7, 4-6, 5-7), QFs of Montecarlo (2-6, 6-4, 2-6), Final of Barcelona (6-4, 6-7, 7-5), QFs of Madrid (4-6, 4-6), Final of Rome (7-5, 1-6, 6-3) and SFs of RG (6-3, 3-6, 6-7, 2-6). As you can see, all of them were important matches (vs. top 5 players) and all of them were really tight so the pressure he felt during all those BPs had to be really high (more than in any other match he played this year). As I said on my previous post, I think his % on BPs saved is quite good and he had a better % than his opponents in all those matches, which is pretty impressive cause all those players are so much better servers than Nadal (especially Sascha and Nole, of course), and that means they had more "free points" than Nadal... At first sight, that suggest me that he's not having pressure problems to save BP's. And the fact that he has a better % than his opponents also suggest me that he's not having pressure problems to convert his break opportunities (well..., or maybe are his opponents who can't handle the pressure of facing a BP when they play against him...).

On 8/7/2021 at 6:15 PM, Torque said:

for example Nadal failed to save break point against Harris and that break point was also match point and it seems to me that he's losing more 'key' break points than he used to.

Not relevant because, as I said before, Nadal was carrying physical problems.

Well, I won't go more further on this. Just let's see how he does on future events.

Edited August 9, 2021 by darko08

[Torque]

Pointless to continue as you say. I'm talking about the long-term, you're talking about the short-term. I'm sure there's some agreement in there somewhere, but I'm not in the habit of conversing with anyone that calls me a liar.

[CzechPunter]

This is no place for personal insults, @darko08! Thank you!