Racing Chat - Sunday 25th July

[fd1972uk]

Successful day for me, I kept my money in my pocket. 

Few that I fancied were nowhere. 

Will wait to see how next week or so. 

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Wasn't that impressive ?

Never managed to watch it because we had guests. Just read  it won by a few lengths and won comfortable. 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Villa Chris

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Never managed to watch it because we had guests. Just read  it won by a few lengths and won comfortable. 

Yes but it made a hash of a jump and almost got rid of Tom O'Brien; You may well enjoy watching a rerun for future reference for the horse

 

[Villa Chris]

10 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes but it made a hash of a jump and almost got rid of Tom O'Brien; You may well enjoy watching a rerun for future reference for the horse

 

Just watched it. Fantastic recovery by horse and jockey. Apart from that blunder he jumped well enough. Seemed a bit keen, too. 

[hugo sanchez]

On 7/24/2021 at 7:44 PM, alexcaruso808 said:

Here are my selections for this rather quiet day of racing.

Pontefract

1.55 Vieux Carre 4/1 2nd

2.30 Outback Boy 3/1 3rd 

3.35 Regal Mirage 11/2 1st ?

4.40 Alpha Cru 3/1 1st ?

5.10 Van Gerwen 16/1 1st ?

 

Muselburgh

3.55 Edward Cornelius 15/2 1st ?

6.40 Let Me Be 6/1 Unplaced.

 

All prices as per Bet365.  All bets are EW.

 

[hugo sanchez]

fantastic tipping very well done hope you won plenty thanks for sharing

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

They are the worst "Horse racing" bets on the planet next to odds on shots

That appears to be a subjective view rather than one based on facts.

All my betting is based on logic and maths and this shows that EW betting on 16+ handicaps is logical.

As regards odds on shots these can sometimes represent excellent value so I wouldn't dismiss them completely.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

That appears to be a subjective view rather than one based on facts.

All my betting is based on logic and maths and this shows that EW betting on 16+ handicaps is logical.

As regards odds on shots these can sometimes represent excellent value so I wouldn't dismiss them completely.

Very interesting Michael, if 16+ handicaps can be profitable then why not put the place bet on Betfair Exchange when they run 4 & 5 places sometimes, possibly even in races fewer than 16? The win bet could be either arranged with a bookmaker or the betting exchange.  And, in the main would you be considering favourites for this type of bet?

 

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

5.00  Uttx Euro Du Boulay £1 win at 12/1; Shentri £1 win at 6/1 & saver bet of £2 win at 4.8 = £7.45 if it wins.  Clear Timeform top rated = £4 staked

 

RESULTS UPDATE

No winners today so a straight loss of £11.20 This makes a new balance of £721.43 (£1056.22)

Only two class 3 races tomorrow so I will have to look at class 4 events if I want some choice

[gbettle]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

That appears to be a subjective view rather than one based on facts.

All my betting is based on logic and maths and this shows that EW betting on 16+ handicaps is logical.

As regards odds on shots these can sometimes represent excellent value so I wouldn't dismiss them completely.

Indeed ... Wisdom of the Crowd, and especially so when the favourite is friendless \ un-tipped

[Zilzalian]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

That appears to be a subjective view rather than one based on facts.

All my betting is based on logic and maths and this shows that EW betting on 16+ handicaps is logical.

As regards odds on shots these can sometimes represent excellent value so I wouldn't dismiss them completely.

Yes you are indeed correct, what i wrote was my view based on the way i bet which i tried to emphasise, i fully accept that there are people that make good money betting odds on and or ew

[MCLARKE]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Very interesting Michael, if 16+ handicaps can be profitable then why not put the place bet on Betfair Exchange when they run 4 & 5 places sometimes, possibly even in races fewer than 16? The win bet could be either arranged with a bookmaker or the betting exchange.  And, in the main would you be considering favourites for this type of bet?

I don't think there is any advantage on the exchanges, the advantage is because of the each way terms that the bookmakers offer, i.e. the extra place offered when there are 16 runners compared to 15. The odds on the exhanges will reflect this.

I don't have any preference for backing favourites in these races but if I have a selection I will back it each way rather than to win.

 

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

16 hours ago, hugo sanchez said:

 

great tips i did have van gerwen 

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I don't think there is any advantage on the exchanges, the advantage is because of the each way terms that the bookmakers offer, i.e. the extra place offered when there are 16 runners compared to 15. The odds on the exhanges will reflect this.

I don't have any preference for backing favourites in these races but if I have a selection I will back it each way rather than to win.

 

 

I suspect that there is value to be had in checking the Betfair betting exchange for 4th and 5th places but as you say the odds are cramped when one looks.  I would need something like 2.02 which means I would be staking around £20 as I would on an even money shot.  For those who want to look and try and get a good price e.g. at least 1/4 the odds as they would get from the special offer bookmakers then this may suit them.  I am very apprehensive about puting £20 on even money shots anyway so with all the work involved for me it is not worth the effort.  Many thanks for your reply