Racing Chat - Sunday 25th July

[alexcaruso808]

Here are my selections for this rather quiet day of racing.

Pontefract

1.55 Vieux Carre 4/1 2nd

2.30 Outback Boy 3/1 3rd 

3.35 Regal Mirage 11/2 1st ?

4.40 Alpha Cru 3/1 1st ?

5.10 Van Gerwen 16/1 1st ?

 

Muselburgh

3.55 Edward Cornelius 15/2 1st ?

6.40 Let Me Be 6/1 Unplaced.

 

All prices as per Bet365.  All bets are EW.

Edited July 25, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[The Equaliser]

13 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Here are my selections for this rather quiet day of racing.

Pontefract

1.55 Vieux Carre 4/1

2.30 Outback Boy 3/1

3.35 Regal Mirage 11/2

4.40 Alpha Cru 3/1

5.10 Van Gerwen 16/1

 

Muselburgh

3.55 Edward Cornelius 15/2

6.40 Let Me Be 6/1

 

All prices as per Bet365.  All bets are EW.

Very interesting that you have elected to select ALL these as each way bets; I tend to regard place bets as separate bets.  Good luck anyway Alex

 

[alexcaruso808]

1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:

Very interesting that you have elected to select ALL these as each way bets; I tend to regard place bets as separate bets.  Good luck anyway Alex

 

do you mean that you would back a horse to win and also place a separate bet for it to win?  

I've always done EW bets, not sure why. ?

Cheers!

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, alexcaruso808 said:

do you mean that you would back a horse to win and also place a separate bet for it to win?  

I've always done EW bets, not sure why. ?

Cheers!

Yes, if do so at all.  I don't usually like ew or even place betting but sometimes I will place a separate bet in the place market on the Betfair Exchange if I feel that a horse may well run into a place.  @MCLARKEis the king at getting ew bets, even at very short odds, when he gets generous extra place offers from the bookmakers, though I think that they are on to him now and he finds them scarce these days.  I don't really like place betting as the bookies seem to have sorted out the odds in their favour.  I once read that one could gain advantage in fields of 8 or 9 runners but I can't say that I ever really got into that one either.

[alexcaruso808]

1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes, if do so at all.  I don't usually like ew or even place betting but sometimes I will place a separate bet in the place market on the Betfair Exchange if I feel that a horse may well run into a place.  @MCLARKEis the king at getting ew bets, even at very short odds, when he gets generous extra place offers from the bookmakers, though I think that they are on to him now and he finds them scarce these days.  I don't really like place betting as the bookies seem to have sorted out the odds in their favour.  I once read that one could gain advantage in fields of 8 or 9 runners but I can't say that I ever really got into that one either.

Good points.  

Just thinking about this a little more - I should stop putting EW in my selections as it may reflect a lack of confidence in my selections, and put others off.  

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Good points.  

Just thinking about this a little more - I should stop putting EW in my selections as it may reflect a lack of confidence in my selections, and put others off.  

I think you should be more worried about whether it is making a whole in your wallet.  I forgot to say that my personal view in regard to ew betting is that I would rather back two horses to win than back one each way.  Results will humble anyone and I don't see why anyone should be so big headed so as to think that their wonderful selection method should exclude at least another contender in a race that could win it.  You can use up a lot of money of your betting bank for the place bet element of your bets if you are not careful in my humble opinion

[alexcaruso808]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

 You can use up a lot of money of your betting bank for the place bet element of your bets if you are not careful in my humble opinion

Could you please elaborate on this a little?  I would like to hear your thoughts.  I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm here to learn from you, and others,  who are more experienced.

Best wishes. 

[roger2256]

July -3

1pt level stakes win only 

16.20 Mus Overwrite 7/1

16.30 Utt Saintbury Lady 7/1

17.15 Mus Gowanbuster 40/1

Prices as of now b365 

[black rabbit]

Good Luck Fox   5 15  muss   1/2 pt  win   15/1  betfair

 

P/L  =  +   115 pt

 

[The Equaliser]

24 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Could you please elaborate on this a little?  I would like to hear your thoughts.  I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm here to learn from you, and others,  who are more experienced.

Best wishes. 

Essentially, you are using the same amount of stake money on a place bet as you are on a win bet.  Hence if you are comfortable with betting £20 per day on your win bets then you are now betting £40 per day for the benefit of having a place bet.  If you are uncomfortable with £40 and only feel comfortable with £20 then you are forced to halve your selections on any one day.  The way I look at it is that if a horse doesn't fire on the day then it is just as likely not to get placed either.  However, if you feel that a horse is going to run its heart out then although it may not win it could well get placed and depending on the odds obtained you may get your money back should it get beat.  I guess what I'm saying is that one needs to think about placing an each way bet rather than just routinely backing each way because you have  always done so

 

Edited July 25, 2021 by The Equaliser

[alexcaruso808]

3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Essentially, you are using the same amount of stake money on a place bet as you are on a win bet.  Hence if you are comfortable with betting £20 per day on your win bets then you are now betting £40 per day for the benefit of having a place bet.  If you are uncomfortable with £40 and only feel comfortable with £20 then you are forced to halve your selections on any one day.  The way I look at it is that if a horse doesn't fire on the day then it is just as likely not to get placed either.  However, if you feel that a horse is going to run its heart out then although it may not win it could well get placed and depending on the odds obtained you may get your money back should it get beat.  I guess what I'm saying is that one needs to think about placing an each way bet rather than just routinely backing each way because you have  always done so

 

Thanks for expanding on this.   Plenty for me to think about here, especially your last sentence.   

Good luck with your bets.  

[cannotbebeat]

Uttoxeter
1.10 Knotty Ash 4/6

2.15 Butte Montana 9/5

2.50 Nevilles Cross 7/2

Pontefract
4.40 Sea Oscar 7/5

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Equaliser]

Finding it difficult today

2.50 Uttx Friends Don't Ask £3.20 win at 7.6 = £20.70 if it wins.  Running well but seriously up in class.  Insurance bet on Nevilles Cross £ 1 win at 7/2.  Up 10lbs but should run very well

3.00 Ponte Afandem £2 win at 15.5 = £28.42 if it wins.  Was showing up as 4/1 last night and is now completely friendless.  A bit unreliable but the Easterby team are no slouches.  The favourite Corinthian Knight has drifted out over night and Zamarud doesn't look like a sure thing either

3.25 Uttx I think one has to be desperate to have a bet to back anything in this now the favourite has been withdrawn.  Shocking contenders for a class 3 event

Possibly back later

£6.20 total stakes so far

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Musselburgh 5.45

REAL TERMS 4/1

 

[Offramp]

Two horses running their big lungs out over 2 miles and they are separated by 20cm on the line. A tiny stutter at a hurdle can lose the race, or the jockey taking the wrong line... 

With WIN bets you win or get nothing. 

Each way bets you get some consolation. In accumulators they are crucial. 

[MCLARKE]

The basic rule is that each way betting only makes sense for 16+ runner handicaps.

There are some exceptions, principally when the favourite is odds on.

I cannot see any logic why you would use them in accumulators.

[Ironjoe]

Pontefract 3.35 where's Jeff 3/1 2pt win

Mussel 4.20 noble crusade 3/1 1pt win

Mussel 5.45 rising star 11/8 2 pt win

Good luck ?

[Villa Chris]

I’ve just gone through the 2.50 at Uttoxeter. Storm Home  comes out top rated. Won his first chase lto in 13 attempts , but his previous 3-4 runs were encouraging which is probably down to him being upped in distance and he’s rather unlucky he’s only got the 1 chase win to his name. Raised 10Ibs for his 9 length victory lto in a listed race and was eased towards the finish, so I’m confident enough he’s still winnable off this mark. 
 

10 points win at 9/2 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

Won that very well. It went off at 5/1 so 60 points returned. 

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Finding it difficult today

2.50 Uttx Friends Don't Ask £3.20 win at 7.6 = £20.70 if it wins.  Running well but seriously up in class.  Insurance bet on Nevilles Cross £ 1 win at 7/2.  Up 10lbs but should run very well

3.00 Ponte Afandem £2 win at 15.5 = £28.42 if it wins.  Was showing up as 4/1 last night and is now completely friendless.  A bit unreliable but the Easterby team are no slouches.  The favourite Corinthian Knight has drifted out over night and Zamarud doesn't look like a sure thing either

3.25 Uttx I think one has to be desperate to have a bet to back anything in this now the favourite has been withdrawn.  Shocking contenders for a class 3 event

Possibly back later

£6.20 total stakes so far

3.55 Muss Drawdown £1 win at 17/2 with Bet365.  Was 4/1 last night and drifted like a barge.  Money for Sherdi 9/4 to 7/4 & also money for Buckshaw Village too.  However, who knows what will happen until they race.  I'll go with the drifter

 

[Zilzalian]

My opinion on ew bets which is probably different than most is simple. They are the worst "Horse racing" bets on the planet next to odds on shots and i even struggle to force myself to do a 100/1 shot ew which is an act of stupidity on my part i concede. I avoid short priced horses like the plague so my betting theoretically should all be ew, i did an analysis on my betting book and ew cost me money simply because if i want to invest say £10 i would have had to split that in half to go ew. my analysis showed that the places i got would not beat the win. In other words the £10 win beat the £5ew win and place hands down over the season. So basically the problem for me is highlighted when the horse wins as opposed to being placed. Don't get me wrong here when a horse places at say 33/1 i say to myself i should have backed that ew, but i know from my analysis that is wrong "think" for the way i bet. @alexcaruso808 i think most would advise ew is best when it returns your whole stake for a place ie greater than11/2 @1/4 the odds, anything less and you lose money. I have mentioned elsewhere that if you are "scared of losing money" then that becomes prohibitive when your thinking about a race. Just to contradict myself here i often put ew lucky 15's on but only if the shortest price of the 4 horses is greater than 10/1.

[Villa Chris]

5.00 Uttoxeter 

Its a class 4 which is the lowest grade I bet on, and I don’t even usually bother with class 4s during peak jump season, but you’re limited this time of year. Demon D’ Aunuo is due to go up next week for his Stratford romp 7 days ago, so strike whilst the iron is hot? I also have him top rated and he always does his best running on good ground scoring some good RPRs . The favourite is yet to go over fences but is obviously fancied to do well, but he’s an unknown. I don’t mind taking him on with Demon D’Aunuo who’s a nice 10/3 as I post . Don’t Ask beat my selection lto in may but the selection made a significant mistake 2 out which may have cost him the race, Don’t Ask runs off 5Ibs higher today. 
 

10 points win on Demon D’Aunuo at 10/3 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Villa Chris

[ipswich45]

Sunday Series races

Today sees the start of 3 sunday series meetings live on ITV4   today comes from Musselburgh +1 at Pontefract 

1555 Musselburgh - 1 Buckshaw Village   Unplaced
1610 Pontefract - 2 Brunch  WON 7/4
1620 Musselburgh - 2 Asdaa  Unplaced
1645 Musselburgh - 6 Firebomb Unplaced
1715 Musselburgh - 2 The Bell Conductor Unplaced
1745 Musselburgh - 4 Real Terms 4th
1815 Musselburgh - 9 Lion Tower WON 4/1
1840 Musselburgh - 6 Red Missile Unplaced

Edited July 25, 2021 by ipswich45
results being added

[alexcaruso808]

Thanks @Zilzalian!  

I guess my habit of EW betting is from when I first started betting, about 20 years ago.  I was in my early 20s and a friend of mine, who I would go to the local Sean Graham bookies at lunch with, said something along the lines of "you should always bet each way, as that way you always get something back."  I suppose that this way of thinking is indeed ingrained!  

Tomorrow, I will make all my best win bets!

Thanks again everyone for your thoughts and advice.  

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks @Zilzalian!  

I guess my habit of EW betting is from when I first started betting, about 20 years ago.  I was in my early 20s and a friend of mine, who I would go to the local Sean Graham bookies at lunch with, said something along the lines of "you should always bet each way, as that way you always get something back."  I suppose that this way of thinking is indeed ingrained!  

Tomorrow, I will make all my best win bets!

Thanks again everyone for your thoughts and advice.  

just use ew wisely is the best advice set yourself a minimum say if ur horse is say 8/1 or above use ew. depends a lot on ur stake to be honest if its a few quid it doesnt hurt much but if u get into tenners and upwards then give it some thought.

[The Equaliser]

5.00  Uttx Euro Du Boulay £1 win at 12/1; Shentri £1 win at 6/1 & saver bet of £2 win at 4.8 = £7.45 if it wins.  Clear Timeform top rated = £4 staked

 

[Villa Chris]

Each to their own. Some people it pays to go ew, where as some are better having it straight on the nose. I’m guilty of not being overly confident sometimes so anything in double figures I usually go ew. My biggest ever single win was a 33/1 £20 on the nose a week before my wedding which was a great wedding present . I find it pays to go ew in the big handicaps where the bookies pay extra places. I see both sides of the coin though. You don’t have to split your ew 50/50 either, so 75% win and 25% ew is an option on big priced horses 

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

5.00 Uttoxeter 

Its a class 4 which is the lowest grade I bet on, and I don’t even usually bother with class 4s during peak jump season, but you’re limited this time of year. Demon D’ Aunuo is due to go up next week for his Stratford romp 7 days ago, so strike whilst the iron is hot? I also have him top rated and he always does his best running on good ground scoring some good RPRs . The favourite is yet to go over fences but is obviously fancied to do well, but he’s an unknown. I don’t mind taking him on with Demon D’Aunuo who’s a nice 10/3 as I post . Don’t Ask beat my selection lto in may but the selection made a significant mistake 2 out which may have cost him the race, Don’t Ask runs off 5Ibs higher today. 
 

10 points win on Demon D’Aunuo at 10/3 

The favourite hammered it home. Mine nowhere .

[The Equaliser]

37 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

The favourite hammered it home. Mine nowhere .

Wasn't that impressive ?

[Ironjoe]

5 hours ago, Ironjoe said:

Pontefract 3.35 where's Jeff 3/1 2pt win

Mussel 4.20 noble crusade 3/1 1pt win

Mussel 5.45 rising star 11/8 2 pt win

Good luck ?

Half a point profit on the day but feel quite hard done by after the ride given to wheres jeff