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Racing Chat-Friday 23 July


Zilzalian
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My Speed Figures- a few considerations.


The speed figures I submit on these chats have a few Proviso's

The nature of 2yo figures i produce means that they are incomplete until the end of the season or at least 3 runs and are therefore a bit fluid,
for example:- you may see a Plus (+) next to them this means it has only raced once and will inevitably improve its figure on its next start.

many races have small sample sizes, eg most horse at this time of year may only have had 1, 2, or 3 runs and many are first time out i only publish figures for listed races and upwards.

as the season progresses obviously horses step up in distance which one assumes rightly or wrongly that the trainer thinks it will suit but can often be a "tester"

we all know some horses have ground preferential  which is often unknown in 2yo

as the season progresses the figures by the very nature of the above comments become more accurate

always use the figures as an extra tool and not a definitive.

Royal Ascot was very successful, producing 2 anyways forecasts from 3 runners and a couple of good price winners (100/1+)
and i am looking forward to seeing  what Goodwood will produce.

In my case my Speed figures must pick the horse themselves that is the basic idea of them and that is to take away any bias i have, ie Trainers, Jockeys,  pretty names, ground, course etc so the price of the horse is irrelevant if the top Rated is 100/1 i will back it (can you imagine getting one right at 100/1 and not backing it)? That's how cats die and computer screens get smashed.

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4 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

@Zilzalian are there any races in which speed is the most important factor? I mean a race in which speed would be more important than jockey skill, or a top trainer? 

Well thats quite contentious for me to be honest its been my experience that jockeys and trainers are over rated, jockeys can never get a horse to run faster and neither can trainers, all horses have optimal limits which basically means jockeys can only get a horse beaten (how many times have you seen even "top" jockeys cock up?) i concede some trainers appear to be better than others but at the top level they can only train what they have, now there are some very good trainers that are very good handicappers so are expert at choosing "the right race" but then again they also know the races to get horses beaten in to get the handicap marks down and you and i are never privy to that information. that is why theoretically you/me should only back in listed/group races where they are primarily running for Breeding/prestige not prize money. So the answer to your question is yes speed is as in most sports the most primary/important factor. all other considerations are secondary. Again for me the worst killer of "banks" is the fear of losing money so punters stick to short price horses when all the evidence suggests thats the wrong thing to do, if i remember correctly only 30% of favs win (oddly similar for flat and jumps) which basically stating the obvious means that 70% don't win. (sideways tip-july is the most productive month for flat favs winning). So here is the hierarchy of my considerations ,            1 Speed, 2 distance, 3 course, 4 going. 5 draw. look what happened to henry cecil when the arabs took their horses away, he was still a brilliant trainer but couldnt get bad horses to win, this was proofed by what he did with the only owner that stuck by him Kalid Abdulla, Frankel et al. without Abdulla he would have been down to rag horses running round the flapping tracks (Cecils own words). Tom Queally has suffered the same fate, without Cecil, he is still a very good jockey but who uses him now? hope that helps Alex. these are just my opinions, you may like to ask @The Brigadier for his opinions and get a more balanced or different perspective all the evidence i have seen is that he knows the time of day when it comes to GG's

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14.20 Thirsk The Dunkirk Lads £2.70 win at 8.6 = £20.11 profit if it wins.  No bad reports on this one though it has drifted from 4/1 last night.  The favourite has a lot of weight which is largely offset by a 5lbs claimer.  Not confident about this one for a Trixie

14.30 Asc Blow Your Horn £6 win at 4.5 = £20.58 profit if it wins.  Looks like punters are relying on 3 year old records in this race for the favourite  to win. the media are banging on about its good second at Chester.  Well Chester is no where like Ascot so once again the favourite is not Trixie material

3.00 Asc Dreamloper (OM) £2.30 win at 10.00 = £20.29 profit if it wins.  Not far behind Lights On previously and seems a good bet to run a good race this time.  The favourite is from the mighty Gosden yard. Off 287 days and seems to take time to get into its races.  Not one for a Trixie on that basis.

3.35 Asc Valrian Steel.  I can't help feeling that I am being led like a lamb to the slaughter when I read such glowing accounts.  However, if all is true then this looks a worthwhile punt for £4.30 at 5.8 = £20.23 profit if it wins.  I couldn't resist having £1 to win on Pirate King at 20/1 as I don't think that this is a forlorn hope.  Can't find anything bad to say against the favourite but just don't fancy it.  I may rue the day of course going against the mighty Gosden team.

£16.30 staked so far.

May come back later if I have time to do so

Good luck to everyone trying to win some money today

     

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Thank you for your reply @Zilzalian.  You certainly make some excellent points.  Speed isn't something that I really considered in the past, but I will look at it more over my next few bets this weekend.  I always started off looking at trainer and jockey, and then considered recent form, draw, what other horses are in the race etc. 

I will follow some of your bets over the weekend 👍

 

 

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I agree with @Zilzalian. Jockeys have little impact, I am sure that some are better than others but this is relected in the odds, although I do tend to exclude claiming jockeys in some of my systems. The draw is important but the market often over compensates for this and perversely the better value is often with badly drawn horses.

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7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I agree with @Zilzalian. Jockeys have little impact, I am sure that some are better than others but this is relected in the odds, although I do tend to exclude claiming jockeys in some of my systems. The draw is important but the market often over compensates for this and perversely the better value is often with badly drawn horses.

maybe some claimers are underbet by general public...

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

14.20 Thirsk The Dunkirk Lads £2.70 win at 8.6 = £20.11 profit if it wins.  No bad reports on this one though it has drifted from 4/1 last night.  The favourite has a lot of weight which is largely offset by a 5lbs claimer.  Not confident about this one for a Trixie

14.30 Asc Blow Your Horn £6 win at 4.5 = £20.58 profit if it wins.  Looks like punters are relying on 3 year old records in this race for the favourite  to win. the media are banging on about its good second at Chester.  Well Chester is no where like Ascot so once again the favourite is not Trixie material

3.00 Asc Dreamloper (OM) £2.30 win at 10.00 = £20.29 profit if it wins.  Not far behind Lights On previously and seems a good bet to run a good race this time.  The favourite is from the mighty Gosden yard. Off 287 days and seems to take time to get into its races.  Not one for a Trixie on that basis.

3.35 Asc Valrian Steel.  I can't help feeling that I am being led like a lamb to the slaughter when I read such glowing accounts.  However, if all is true then this looks a worthwhile punt for £4.30 at 5.8 = £20.23 profit if it wins.  I couldn't resist having £1 to win on Pirate King at 20/1 as I don't think that this is a forlorn hope.  Can't find anything bad to say against the favourite but just don't fancy it.  I may rue the day of course going against the mighty Gosden team.

£16.30 staked so far.

May come back later if I have time to do so

Good luck to everyone trying to win some money today

     

RESULTS UPDATE

I don't know what goes on in the brains of our professional jockeys but not a lot if the 2.30 at Ascot is anything to go by.  Admittedly this was a 2 miles race but what on earth were most of them thinking about by letting the favourite go off into over a 20 lengths lead for most of the race.  I wouldn't have minded if the leader had been a 50/1 outsider that could well be expected to come back to the field but this was a 6/4 favourite!! Absolutely shocking jockeyship for all those involved.

I did get one winner which was Dreamloper though I didn't expect it to win so easily as it did.  Pity I didn't give Speedo Boy another look. Anyway this gave me a net profit on the day of £6.29.  My new balance is £738.63 (Bank £1056.22)

Lots of classy racing again tomorrow so I won't have to bother with class 4 races again.  Hopefully I will get a chance to see what these monkeys get up to tomorrow, Bookies/Timeform, ATR and Racing Post.  I don't trust any of them

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

maybe some claimers are underbet by general public..

You could well be right but there is not enough data available for me to draw meaningful conclusions about an individual jockey.

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16 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

@Zilzalian how do you compile your own speed figures?  Are you rewatching old races or something like this?

all the race times are published in the Racing Post or on the website results for each race or alternatively buy the RP weekender they have a pullout with all the results for that week. to tell you how i use them would be to shoot myself in the foot. published speed figures affect the price, the bookies factor the successful ones in to the price.

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1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

all the race times are published in the Racing Post or on the website results for each race or alternatively buy the RP weekender they have a pullout with all the results for that week. to tell you how i use them would be to shoot myself in the foot. published speed figures affect the price, the bookies factor the successful ones in to the price.

Thanks buddy!!

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