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Racing Chat - Thursday 22nd July


Darran
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One of the most frustrating bets I have put up this year was Royal Chant at Worcester 3 weeks ago. I thought he had potential to be well handicapped based on his pointing and hunter chase form and that a wind op could be just what he needed as he had finished weakly in his last two hunter chase at Southwell and Cartmel. He went off 16/1 and was cruising into contention entering the home straight when he was hampered at 4 out and came down. Not only was it frustrating for that bet, but we also didn't find out if the wind op had worked or not. He could just as easily found nothing for pressure as he could have ended up winning the race. I have to back him again in the Worcester opener and although it is a larger field and he is a shorter price, it is still a terrible race he is capable of winning if the op has worked. 
 
Given only 2 of these have won over fences before that does sum up what we are dealing with here. Write It Down is one of those and he ran OK when 3rd last time, but he is hardly one to trust. Freddie Darling makes his debut for Peter Bowen. It is also his chasing debut, but he didn't show much in three handicap hurdles for Harry Fry last season. I'd be wary of him, but at the same time you have to take a bit of a leap of faith to back him. Train Hill is making his chasing debut and ran well enough last time over hurdles which was his best effort in 5 starts over hurdles. Yaazaain ran well enough on his chasing debut 3 weeks ago and that was his first run since April so he would be a danger. The biggest danger could be Ardbruce though. He ran really well at Stratford last time given he made a terrible mistake at 3 out. He fell the time before that, but had been a close 2nd 3 starts back. If he can avoid any costly errors he would be my idea of the winner if Royal Chant didn't do it. 
 
Ultimately though I have to give Royal Chant another chance to prove the wind op has worked and if it has then he will go very close to winning this.
 
Royal Chant e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 (15/2 with them to 4 places other bookies going 4 and 5 places as well)
 
In the 4.35 Go On Chez is back out after his win last week and it looks a superb bit of placing. First of all its a hurdle race so he doesn't have to carry a penalty. Secondly it is an amateur riders race so if he wins he won't have to carry a penalty next time either. He is well in as his hurdle mark has gone up 6lbs and his chasing mark went up 11lbs for that win last week. This is a shockingly weak contest and although his hurdle form was poor last season, he clearly is a much improved horse now. Also the brush hurdles here are like mini point-to-point fences anyway so I don't see that being an issue. Toby Wynne is a decent amateur and he takes off 7lbs so he will only have 9-13 to carry. Obviously he's a much shorter price than last week, but if he is in the same form then he ought to win again.
 
Go On Chez @ 6/4 with everyone except Bet365
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Sandown
2.10 Inspiral 15/8

3.20 Old News 7/2

Worcester
2.55 Galsworthy 13/8

3.30 Forthegreatergood 10/11

Yarmouth
3.10 Smokey Malone 5/2

3.45 Fen Tiger 15/4

4.50 Castana Dia 4/5

Good luck all, too many seconds for my liking, CNBB.

Damn it I had £129 coming of that Old News just for the double.

Edited by cannotbebeat
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speed figures for the 2yo listed 2:10 race at sandown

could be interesting, we will see.

don't put your granny's pension on though.

1 qipao                            121                     7/1

2 fabiosa                         117                      25/1

3 almohandesah              113                    20/1

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Only looked at one race so far today and unfortunately most of the Class 1 -4 are in the earlier part of the day so I may miss a lot whilst out at lunch

Anyway looked at the class 1 event 2.10 Sandown.   Inspiral looks to be the top form horse trained by the mighty Gosden team.  You could get 2/1 about this one last night and will be lucky to get 7/4 today.  It even seems to have an advantage over Wild Beauty in as much as Wild Beauty has to prove it as good over a firm surface.  I think that @Zilzaliancould well be OK with Qipao as Mark Johnston's runners always have to be respected.

However I have had £2 to win on Allyaali at 13.5 = £24.50 profit if it wins.  Had I had a few more favourite selections to choose from I would have included Inspiral in my Trixie

 

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22 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

...Inspiral looks to be the top form horse trained by the mighty Gosden team.  You could get 2/1 about this one last night and will be lucky to get 7/4 today.

Anyone get 3/1?

Inspiral carpet.

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33 minutes ago, Offramp said:

Could someone edit the heading from 

Racing Chat - Thursday 23rd July 

to 

Racing Chat - Thursday 22nd July

 

 

 

 

 

That was my fault as completely forgot we were already on the 22nd when I started the thread

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  • MCLARKE changed the title to Racing Chat - Thursday 22nd July

3.55 Sandown 

Lawn Ranger 8, 25/1

Civil Law 7.75, 7/2

Sweet Reward 6.65, 11/2

I’ll start with Lawn Ranger. Out of sorts this year but usually does hit running in higher classes. Runs off 85, but most of his RPRS last year were in the 90s with 4 of them pushing the 100 mark. If he could manage to recapture that form here, then he’d probably be very hard to stop. Civil Law is running well and can win off this mark. Sweet Reward loves it at Sandown but I fear the ground is too fast for him. 
 

Lawn Ranger £5 free bet to win 

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3.55 San Sweet Reward £3.20win at 7.8 = £21.32.  Looks to have a good chance on present form although shunned in the market.  Have also had £2 on Lawn Ranger 3TBP at 6.4 = £10.58 should it run up to top rated RPR expectations

Will try to look at other 3 later runners now

 

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46 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

3.55 San Sweet Reward £3.20win at 7.8 = £21.32.  Looks to have a good chance on present form although shunned in the market.  Have also had £2 on Lawn Ranger 3TBP at 6.4 = £10.58 should it run up to top rated RPR expectations

Will try to look at other 3 later runners now

 

Haha, chose the wrong top rated horse.  TImeform had Andaleep which won at 16/1

4.50 Yar Invincible Larne (LM) £2.10 at 11.00 = £20.58 if it wins. 

7.20 Don Tom's Reignbeau £2.50 win at 9.6 = £21.56 if it wins.  Well fancied in the sporting press

7.35 Nb Stellar Queen (HD) £3.80 win at 6.4 = £20.11 profit if wins

No Trixie as some favourites odds on

Total stakes so far £15.60

 

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Haha, chose the wrong top rated horse.  TImeform had Andaleep which won at 16/1

4.50 Yar Invincible Larne (LM) £2.10 at 11.00 = £20.58 if it wins. 

7.20 Don Tom's Reignbeau £2.50 win at 9.6 = £21.56 if it wins.  Well fancied in the sporting press

7.35 Nb Stellar Queen (HD) £3.80 win at 6.4 = £20.11 profit if wins

No Trixie as some favourites odds on

Total stakes so far £15.60

 

RESULTS UPDATE

No winners today but the day did not pass without future hope.  Looking back I missed the Timeform top rated Andaleep which won at 16/1.  On reflection although this horse was a top rated Timeform horse, Timeform did have the guts to put it up as a selection too.  On this basis it was a better bet than my wasted 3TBP bet on Lawn Ranger.  Also, I backed the glitzy Hollie Doyle in the 7.35 at Nb.  She rides better on the All weather and I got taken in by the guff written about the horse.  Again, looking back Rolling The Dice looked to be a better prospect as it had already ran and had at least one promising run.  But as they say, hindsight is no sight so I must focus a bit more to spot opportunities.

I have pledged today to operate the following strategy on Punters Lounge Forum until 31.12.21

HORSE RACING SELECTION RULES FOR TRIXIES AND SINGLE BETS 22.7.21

This is to only back favourites in a Trixie or perhaps a double if three can't be found.  I will try to get out at B/E should the first leg(s) fail and then back the remaining horses in a single bet. No selections in my Trixie's will be odds on.  All my other bets will not be on a favourite, or at least it won't be favourite when my bet is struck.  These selections can be any price and my aim is to vary my stake so as to try and win a £20 profit should one of them win. I feel I will be in with this strategy for the long haul.  The only deviations to the above rules will be that I will sometimes choose one horse over another with regard to one of my favourite top jockeys/apprentices in either of the above categories.

No winners today so a loss of £15.60 which gives me a new balance of £732.34 (Bank £1056.22)

A lot of classy races tomorrow, Ascot in particular.  I should be able to exclude all class 4 races as there are well enough classes 1 -3 available for betting purposes.

   

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11 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

any thoughts on if marco ghiani will continue to be consistent now he's lost his allowance which was giving some advantage imo?

ive backed beija flor betfair sp for interest today 345 yarmouth

ghiani no winners i dont think so leta watch thia space

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43 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

ghiani no winners i dont think so leta watch thia space

There are others to choose from

Apprentice Jockeys Championship

The Apprentice Jockeys Championship is decided on winners of both Flat and All Weather races taking place from 1 May 2021 to British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday 16th October 2021 .

Current Champion Apprentice Jockey: Cieren Fallon

An Apprentice Jockey can “claim” a weight allowance of 7lbs until they have 20 wins, 5lbs until 50 wins, 3lbs until 95 wins (special allowances apply in races for Apprentices only).

Current Standings as of 21st July 2021:

Marco Ghiani 33 151 22% +97.99 £213,534 £298,182
Mark Crehan 18 140 13% -38.14 £93,035 £186,886
Saffie Osborne 17 138 12% -43.62 £50,452 £107,769
Billy Garritty 15 93 16% +115.12 £65,103 £107,002
Ella McCain 14 66 21% +17.50 £43,391 £82,399
Stefano Cherchi 14 89 16% -6.75 £42,470 £82,748
Laura Pearson 14 117 12% -22.26 £78,368 £131,850
Mollie Phillips 13 55 24% +44.70 £36,908 £56,384
Thore Hammer Hansen 13 117 11% +41.00 £39,770 £122,471
Harry Russell 12 92 13% -15.47 £83,786 £115,990

I'm not too fussed who I pick as long as they are getting the winners.  Cieron Fallon has only 22 winners and a 13% strike rate now he can't claim anything; let's hope that Marco doesn't suffer the same fate..

 

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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

There are others to choose from

Apprentice Jockeys Championship

The Apprentice Jockeys Championship is decided on winners of both Flat and All Weather races taking place from 1 May 2021 to British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday 16th October 2021 .

Current Champion Apprentice Jockey: Cieren Fallon

An Apprentice Jockey can “claim” a weight allowance of 7lbs until they have 20 wins, 5lbs until 50 wins, 3lbs until 95 wins (special allowances apply in races for Apprentices only).

Current Standings as of 21st July 2021:

Marco Ghiani 33 151 22% +97.99 £213,534 £298,182
Mark Crehan 18 140 13% -38.14 £93,035 £186,886
Saffie Osborne 17 138 12% -43.62 £50,452 £107,769
Billy Garritty 15 93 16% +115.12 £65,103 £107,002
Ella McCain 14 66 21% +17.50 £43,391 £82,399
Stefano Cherchi 14 89 16% -6.75 £42,470 £82,748
Laura Pearson 14 117 12% -22.26 £78,368 £131,850
Mollie Phillips 13 55 24% +44.70 £36,908 £56,384
Thore Hammer Hansen 13 117 11% +41.00 £39,770 £122,471
Harry Russell 12 92 13% -15.47 £83,786 £115,990

I'm not too fussed who I pick as long as they are getting the winners.  Cieron Fallon has only 22 winners and a 13% strike rate now he can't claim anything; let's hope that Marco doesn't suffer the same fate..

 

marco was a star player as i had bonus points for him lol. he has two rides today. 

Edited by Wildgarden
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7 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

marco was a star player as i had bonus points for him lol. he has two rides today. 

Well maybe you should stick with him.  I don't think that he will be less good at riding now he has lost his allowance it is just that the trainers seeking to eak out their last bit of advantage for their runners may well use another claiming apprentice and he may not get the rides he has been enjoying of late

 

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48 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well maybe you should stick with him.  I don't think that he will be less good at riding now he has lost his allowance it is just that the trainers seeking to eak out their last bit of advantage for their runners may well use another claiming apprentice and he may not get the rides he has been enjoying of late

 

yeah depends what rides he has and what general betting public think of him as a jockey too ongoing.

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