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Racing Chat - Wednesday 21st July


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Been out most of the day so couldn't look at much today

7.35 San Coul Kat (OM) £7.50 win at 3.8 = £18.62 if it wins. most of the runners in this race are trying to redeem their reputations.  I believe this one was at the wrong distance last time. I  hope it handles the firmer surface.  Lyndon B £2 win at 16.00 = £22.05 if that wins.  a drifter with a chance

8.10 San Barn Owl (JD) £3.20 win at 13/2 = £24 Return if it wins.  Looks to be top rated, though it is only a class 5 winner; well bred son of Frankel.  Drifted like a barge overnight

£12.70 staked

 

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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Sandown 6.00

C'MON KENNY 7/4

Due to the number of restricted accounts I have decided to now place these bets at BSP.

 

bookie shop lol. annoying how bookie doesnt play fair. why im only doing acca on them now save em.

Edited by Wildgarden
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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Been out most of the day so couldn't look at much today

7.35 San Coul Kat (OM) £7.50 win at 3.8 = £18.62 if it wins. most of the runners in this race are trying to redeem their reputations.  I believe this one was at the wrong distance last time. I  hope it handles the firmer surface.  Lyndon B £2 win at 16.00 = £22.05 if that wins.  a drifter with a chance

8.10 San Barn Owl (JD) £3.20 win at 13/2 = £24 Return if it wins.  Looks to be top rated, though it is only a class 5 winner; well bred son of Frankel.  Drifted like a barge overnight

£12.70 staked

 

RESULTS UPDATE

A profit for once!!  Very interesting although I only played two races. I almost didn't play the 7.35 at Sandown because of time pressure at home.  Even after I backed Lyndon B along with Coul Kat and when I found it had won I was wondering how I came to back it.  Luckily I still had the RP Racecards available and because I screen capture the ATR Racecards I could look back at them too.   This was the RP's take on Lyndon B: Slipping down the weights and last two runs more promising; not ruled out down in class.  Timeform was not so generous but at least gave the horse 3 stars.  Now what is more surprising is that last night this horse was being quoted by most bookmakers at being between 6/1 and 13/2 with Bet365 pushing for business at 7/1. "What did you learn Grasshopper?".  Many of us are drawn towards the first two in the market because they appear to usually have the best recent form.  However, all horses in a race have some chance of wining it.  Therefore it pays to check out other horses at the bigger prices that may well come and win the race.  What a waste of my £7.50 bet on Coul Kat with the champion aboard, finished 5th beaten 8 lengths at 11/4.  Now contrast this with my other bet of £3.20 on Barn Owl at 13/2.  Sure it ran well to finish second at reduced odds of 9/2 but was beaten by the favourite with Ryan Moore aboard at a price of 11/4.  Should have backed the favourite shouldn't I?  This is the perennial question isn't it? Having lost chunks of money over the last couple of days on first and second favourites I have decided that the best way to approach this from now on is to put the so called hot pots into a Trixie, after all, they do sometimes win and do so strung together, for a modest sum e.g. £4, £6. £8 etc BUT then look for a horse in the same race that can realistically spring a surprise and win.  These will be modest singles bets aiming to win about £20 should they oblige.  With the Trixie I will still wait for the last leg and if no winner then put sufficient stake on the third selection so as to recoup my original stake.  No Trixie selection will ever be put in at odds on.

I thought these thoughts may be worth sharing with other forum members

My new balance is £747.94 (Bank £1056.22) after making a net profit of £18.85 today

One class 1 and one class 3 race at Sandown with the top two in the market in both races being at around 2/1.  Quite a few class 4 events mainly at Worcester.  Hopefully I can screen capture most of the ATR cards soon but its getting late.

 

 

 

 

 

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Well done with the profit. 

Personally I'm not too bothered about the price, although the favourite / longshot bias would suggest you are better off backing the shorter odds selections.

You do seem to chop and change your approach a lot, I would paper trade a strategy until I was confortable with it and then stick with it, you really need a large number of bets before you can really draw any conclusions.

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4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Well done with the profit. 

Personally I'm not too bothered about the price, although the favourite / longshot bias would suggest you are better off backing the shorter odds selections.

You do seem to chop and change your approach a lot, I would paper trade a strategy until I was confortable with it and then stick with it, you really need a large number of bets before you can really draw any conclusions.

Many thanks for being helpful.  This is a hobby for me and even when I had a go at Forex trading I could not paper trade that either .  As far as I'm concerned I will keep plugging on at trying to find a winning strategy for myself using open published information so that other people may take advantage of it if/when it proves to be fruitful.  I truly suspect that the general public are being duped into placing bets on false favourites as promoted by the likes of Timeform who are I believe are owned by the bookmakers so as to ensure that the great roller coaster of profits continue to be sustained.  I like the idea of still choosing the so called favourites and combining them in multiple bets so as to win when they do oblige but I have to agree with most of the forum pundits such as @Villa Chriswho buys the Weekender each week so as to laugh at all the failed favourites over the past week that the only way to win real money in this game is to have the ability to spot selections at the bigger prices that are just as likely to run their their race even though they are too readily dismissed by the sporting press and shunned in the daily market moves.  Nice winner you got yesterday 🙂

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12 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for being helpful.  This is a hobby for me and even when I had a go at Forex trading I could not paper trade that either .  As far as I'm concerned I will keep plugging on at trying to find a winning strategy for myself using open published information so that other people may take advantage of it if/when it proves to be fruitful.  I truly suspect that the general public are being duped into placing bets on false favourites as promoted by the likes of Timeform who are I believe are owned by the bookmakers so as to ensure that the great roller coaster of profits continue to be sustained.  I like the idea of still choosing the so called favourites and combining them in multiple bets so as to win when they do oblige but I have to agree with most of the forum pundits such as @Villa Chriswho buys the Weekender each week so as to laugh at all the failed favourites over the past week that the only way to win real money in this game is to have the ability to spot selections at the bigger prices that are just as likely to run their their race even though they are too readily dismissed by the sporting press and shunned in the daily market moves.  Nice winner you got yesterday 🙂

most my winners are 3-1 plus. favs win 30% of time so wouldnt say stay away would be interesting how many that arent top rated etc on timeform win compared to what are.

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There’s plenty of false favourites and I find a lot of them are easy to notice. A win is a win though, so if my selection is 5/4 then so be it. I usually rate a race to get my selections, although I could do with reviewing how I do my ratings. Good runs bad runs is all part of betting, but I’m not fully happy yet, and I’ve only just started betting again after a few months off which wasn’t planned, I just didn’t have the head for it. I’m kind of struggling to get into the flats at the moment. 

Edited by Villa Chris
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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for being helpful.  This is a hobby for me and even when I had a go at Forex trading I could not paper trade that either .  As far as I'm concerned I will keep plugging on at trying to find a winning strategy for myself using open published information so that other people may take advantage of it if/when it proves to be fruitful.  I truly suspect that the general public are being duped into placing bets on false favourites as promoted by the likes of Timeform who are I believe are owned by the bookmakers so as to ensure that the great roller coaster of profits continue to be sustained.  I like the idea of still choosing the so called favourites and combining them in multiple bets so as to win when they do oblige but I have to agree with most of the forum pundits such as @Villa Chriswho buys the Weekender each week so as to laugh at all the failed favourites over the past week that the only way to win real money in this game is to have the ability to spot selections at the bigger prices that are just as likely to run their their race even though they are too readily dismissed by the sporting press and shunned in the daily market moves.  Nice winner you got yesterday 🙂

Further to this I do agree that I chop and change quite a bit; it must be the "airies" star sign at work.  However, I will pledge to keep to the strategy of puting favourites only in Trixies and non favourites backed in singles possibly in the same race(s) right through until the end of December this year.  The only minor difference maybe choosing one of my favourite jockeys/apprentices over another in either category

 

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