Racing Chat - Tuesday 20th July

[roger2256]

July - 11

1pt level stakes win only 

15.20 Wol Nacho 7/1 Won 8/1

17.55 Bal Mullaghmore Wave 12/1 Won

18.05 Che San Juan 16/1 Nr

Prices as of now b365 

18.45 Not Theocrat 7/1 BF Lost

+19

July +8

Edited July 21, 2021 by roger2256
Result

[Villa Chris]

4.45 Ffos Las 

Temple Bruer 4/1 10 points 

4.55 Ballingrobe 

Persia 13/8(now 11/8) 10 points win 

[cannotbebeat]

Wolverhampton
1.00 Russco 2/1

2.10 Right Action 7/4

2.45 Tarroob 5/2

3.20 Kodiak Attack 9/4

Ffos Las
1.55 Whistledown 6/5

2.30 Neenees Choice 7/4

4.15 Hesperis 5/4

4.45 Asadjumeirah 15/8

Good luck all CNBB.

Edited July 20, 2021 by cannotbebeat

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Nottingham 6.45

DE MAZZARO 11/4

[alexcaruso808]

1:00 wolv - Valentinka 9/2 - 4th 

1:35 wolv - Camerily Joe - 6/1 - 1st ?

3.20 wolv - Captain Ryan - 9/1 8th ?

3:55 wolv - Trusty Rusty - 9/2 - 1st ?

 

2:30 Ffos - Eagle's First - 140/1 - Long shot of the day. -  5th

2:30 Ffos - Moqadama - 4/1 3rd  paid out on EW extra on bet365

2:30 Ffos - Chifa - 8/1 - 4th - paid out on EW extra on bet365

3:05 Ffos - One Night in Milan - 14/1 - last - what a disaster!  ??

4:15 Ffos - Beowulf - 3/1 1st ?

 

6:05 Chelms - Irish Times - 15/4 - 1st ?

7:35 Chelms - Coupe de Champagne - 14/1 7th ?

8:10 Chelmsford - Long Tradition 8/11 - 1st ?

8:40 Chelms - Chief of Staff 11/8 - last ?

All odds with bet365 - E/W bets for all horses.

Good luck!

 

Not a bad day with some winner and some EW winners.  Hopefully some of you found success with my picks too.  I'm not going to place any more bets until Saturday, I think I'll quit while I'm ahead.  ?

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[The Equaliser]

Decided to primarily follow overnight market movers today; got too bogged down in ratings yesterday

7.05 Chelm Best class race of the day but can see why most of my fellow forum members have passed it by as it looks to be a very open race.  I have put £5.50 to win on Aljady at 4.8 = £20.48 if it wins.  It is 5lbs better off with Maysonic for a nose beating in May.  It has been running at the wrong distance since. C&D form in a similar class 2 event can't be ignored imo.  Also Maysonic price has drifted from a strong overnight position

2.45 Wolv Badlands £4 win at 6.00 = !9.60 if it wins.  This one's price has shortened from 15/2 to around 4/1 (5/1 Bet365).  The top two in the market have drifted somewhat so I'l go with the market mover

4.45 Ffos Asadjumeira £9.50 win at 3.15 = £20.02 profit if it wins.  This has been very strong in the market overnight and I struggled to get my price matched.  Looks a worthy favourite

6.35 Chlm Mystery Fox Promising 7th in a class 3 event.  This horse has been very strong in the market 6/5 overnight and now slightly odds on.  I am not backing it as their are quite a few others that may run well in this race

7.15 Nott.  I got stuffed on this type of bet yesterday but I'll give it another go today.  Celtic Express (DT) £15 win at 2.84 = £18.50 if it wins and £8.65 win on Professional Widow at 2.74 = 9p ins bet.  Total stakes £23.65

7.35 Chelm Epidemic was around 6/4 last night and has drifted to around 2/1.  Top Brass was around 3/1 last night and is vying for favouritism at around 2/1 now.  However, Top Brass, despite being a Gosden horse has not been exactly inspiring so I'll leave the race alone

8.10 Chelm Long tradition has been smashed into around 8/1 for this race.  Not for me

8.40 chelm Frantohio £3 win at 9 =£23.52if it wins.  This is a drifter but I feel that chief Of staff is risky.  there is money for Headingly but I don't like it

 

[Wildgarden]

35 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Decided to primarily follow overnight market movers today; got too bogged down in ratings yesterday

7.05 Chelm Best class race of the day but can see why most of my fellow forum members have passed it by as it looks to be a very open race.  I have put £5.50 to win on Aljady at 4.8 = £20.48 if it wins.  It is 5lbs better off with Maysonic for a nose beating in May.  It has been running at the wrong distance since. C&D form in a similar class 2 event can't be ignored imo.  Also Maysonic price has drifted from a strong overnight position

2.45 Wolv Badlands £4 win at 6.00 = !9.60 if it wins.  This one's price has shortened from 15/2 to around 4/1 (5/1 Bet365).  The top two in the market have drifted somewhat so I'l go with the market mover

4.45 Ffos Asadjumeira £9.50 win at 3.15 = £20.02 profit if it wins.  This has been very strong in the market overnight and I struggled to get my price matched.  Looks a worthy favourite

6.35 Chlm Mystery Fox Promising 7th in a class 3 event.  This horse has been very strong in the market 6/5 overnight and now slightly odds on.  I am not backing it as their are quite a few others that may run well in this race

7.15 Nott.  I got stuffed on this type of bet yesterday but I'll give it another go today.  Celtic Express (DT) £15 win at 2.84 = £18.50 if it wins and £8.65 win on Professional Widow at 2.74 = 9p ins bet.  Total stakes £23.65

7.35 Chelm Epidemic was around 6/4 last night and has drifted to around 2/1.  Top Brass was around 3/1 last night and is vying for favouritism at around 2/1 now.  However, Top Brass, despite being a Gosden horse has not been exactly inspiring so I'll leave the race alone

8.10 Chelm Long tradition has been smashed into around 8/1 for this race.  Not for me

8.40 chelm Frantohio £3 win at 9 =£23.52if it wins.  This is a drifter but I feel that chief Of staff is risky.  there is money for Headingly but I don't like it

 

badlands 10-1 last night i had!

[Bang on]

1 x win double

6.35 Chelm - Mystery Fox (Ev) - beaten just under 3 lengths after messing up the start on debut, should improve  enough to go very close. 7.35 Chelm - Top Brass (2/1) - The Gosden team are starting to come into form again, the selection won its maiden over CD and again should go close.... (5/1 win double).

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

badlands 10-1 last night i had!

A bookies market stitch-up.  Drifted badly in price in the run up to the off and finished at 11/1.  Asdaa was about 15/2 to 8/1 last night and sent off by an adjusted 13/2 I'm sure.  Don't know if there was a stewards but Asdaa looks to have kept the race by a nose.  The canny Johnston team did the business in the end and although no one seemed to push that one's chances one can never underestimate Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning

   

[alexcaruso808]

@The Equaliser Maybe I am oversimplifying things, but you said you followed overnight market movers to make your bets, right?

Did you simply compare odds of horses this morning to what they were last night, and make your bets based solely on that?  

[fd1972uk]

Beaten straight away. 

Will look at tomorrow's card. 

[azzybear]

mummy bear 4.45 morty 5.15

[The Equaliser]

17 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

@The Equaliser Maybe I am oversimplifying things, but you said you followed overnight market movers to make your bets, right?

Did you simply compare odds of horses this morning to what they were last night, and make your bets based solely on that?  

No Alex, I use the overnight movements in relation to all the other factors such as Form etc.  Taroob was 6/4, 7/4 overnight and showing as 5/2, 11/4 this am when I looked.  Prioritise was showing as 15/8 to 2/1 last night and around 5/2. 3/1 this morning.  Badlands looked as though it could perform very well on its best form as highlighted in the Racing Post comments .  There looked to be an indication by way of market interest that the horse was spot on for the race today.  This being so I favoured risking £4 on Badlands as opposed to risking something like £8+ on Taroob which had drifted from around a 40% chance to around a 29% when I was checking.  Obviously the market move on Badlands was a false one because it drifted out to 11/1 at the off.  The glowing reports and wonderful ratings and comments from the media can be very persuasive in convincing me that one horse is superior to another.  By checking the overnight market moves I feel that I can choose the best of the highly promoted horses by eliminating the ones that the market has gone against.  Prioritise was well promoted by the Sporting Press.  It was the RP selection and second choice of ATR and Timeform.  It was only by checking on the prices that I could see that the market had moved it from about a 33% chance (2/1) to a 25% chance (3/1).  This horse came last beaten 28 lengths.  Obviously l;ate moves for Taroob brought it back to 7/4 and it ran a great race only just to be denied.  However, I don't have time to follow all the price moves throughout the day on individual horses so I have to make my mind up in the mornings as I have other things to do.  I hope this explains my thinking a bit better.

[alexcaruso808]

14 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

No Alex, I use the overnight movements in relation to all the other factors such as Form etc.  Taroob was 6/4, 7/4 overnight and showing as 5/2, 11/4 this am when I looked.  Prioritise was showing as 15/8 to 2/1 last night and around 5/2. 3/1 this morning.  Badlands looked as though it could perform very well on its best form as highlighted in the Racing Post comments .  There looked to be an indication by way of market interest that the horse was spot on for the race today.  This being so I favoured risking £4 on Badlands as opposed to risking something like £8+ on Taroob which had drifted from around a 40% chance to around a 29% when I was checking.  Obviously the market move on Badlands was a false one because it drifted out to 11/1 at the off.  The glowing reports and wonderful ratings and comments from the media can be very persuasive in convincing me that one horse is superior to another.  By checking the overnight market moves I feel that I can choose the best of the highly promoted horses by eliminating the ones that the market has gone against.  Prioritise was well promoted by the Sporting Press.  It was the RP selection and second choice of ATR and Timeform.  It was only by checking on the prices that I could see that the market had moved it from about a 33% chance (2/1) to a 25% chance (3/1).  This horse came last beaten 28 lengths.  Obviously l;ate moves for Taroob brought it back to 7/4 and it ran a great race only just to be denied.  However, I don't have time to follow all the price moves throughout the day on individual horses so I have to make my mind up in the mornings as I have other things to do.  I hope this explains my thinking a bit better.

Thanks for the detailed answer - very helpful!  There is so much to research before placing a bet that it can become a little overwhelming unless you have some kind of a routine or process by which you make your selections by.   

[cannotbebeat]

Nottingham

6.15 Fandabidozi 11/4

7.15 Professional Widow 7/4

8.20 Contrast 1/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Equaliser]

56 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks for the detailed answer - very helpful!  There is so much to research before placing a bet that it can become a little overwhelming unless you have some kind of a routine or process by which you make your selections by.   

The people who claim to make a living in horse racing very often say that they do so by watching and re watching previous races with regard to the race that they may be interested in.  They do not like the results commentaries given out by the racing press saying that they have too many errors.  However, carrying out such a task is beyond my interest in racing as it would be very time consuming.  This is only a hobby for me.  I like to think that I can come up with good selections and make a profit by using the available published information available.  As can be seen by my published balances each day I have failed to achieve this so far.  However, this still hold my interest for the time being.

 

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

A bookies market stitch-up.  Drifted badly in price in the run up to the off and finished at 11/1.  Asdaa was about 15/2 to 8/1 last night and sent off by an adjusted 13/2 I'm sure.  Don't know if there was a stewards but Asdaa looks to have kept the race by a nose.  The canny Johnston team did the business in the end and although no one seemed to push that one's chances one can never underestimate Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning

   

yes asdaa cost me my acca so i wasnt happy as i had fav too.

[Wildgarden]

18 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

The people who claim to make a living in horse racing very often say that they do so by watching and re watching previous races with regard to the race that they may be interested in.  They do not like the results commentaries given out by the racing press saying that they have too many errors.  However, carrying out such a task is beyond my interest in racing as it would be very time consuming.  This is only a hobby for me.  I like to think that I can come up with good selections and make a profit by using the available published information available.  As can be seen by my published balances each day I have failed to achieve this so far.  However, this still hold my interest for the time being.

 

ur getting a lot of my pixks u are in right direction now.

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Decided to primarily follow overnight market movers today; got too bogged down in ratings yesterday

7.05 Chelm Best class race of the day but can see why most of my fellow forum members have passed it by as it looks to be a very open race.  I have put £5.50 to win on Aljady at 4.8 = £20.48 if it wins.  It is 5lbs better off with Maysonic for a nose beating in May.  It has been running at the wrong distance since. C&D form in a similar class 2 event can't be ignored imo.  Also Maysonic price has drifted from a strong overnight position

2.45 Wolv Badlands £4 win at 6.00 = !9.60 if it wins.  This one's price has shortened from 15/2 to around 4/1 (5/1 Bet365).  The top two in the market have drifted somewhat so I'l go with the market mover

4.45 Ffos Asadjumeira £9.50 win at 3.15 = £20.02 profit if it wins.  This has been very strong in the market overnight and I struggled to get my price matched.  Looks a worthy favourite

6.35 Chlm Mystery Fox Promising 7th in a class 3 event.  This horse has been very strong in the market 6/5 overnight and now slightly odds on.  I am not backing it as their are quite a few others that may run well in this race

7.15 Nott.  I got stuffed on this type of bet yesterday but I'll give it another go today.  Celtic Express (DT) £15 win at 2.84 = £18.50 if it wins and £8.65 win on Professional Widow at 2.74 = 9p ins bet.  Total stakes £23.65

7.35 Chelm Epidemic was around 6/4 last night and has drifted to around 2/1.  Top Brass was around 3/1 last night and is vying for favouritism at around 2/1 now.  However, Top Brass, despite being a Gosden horse has not been exactly inspiring so I'll leave the race alone

8.10 Chelm Long tradition has been smashed into around 8/1 for this race.  Not for me

8.40 chelm Frantohio £3 win at 9 =£23.52if it wins.  This is a drifter but I feel that chief Of staff is risky.  there is money for Headingly but I don't like it

 

RESULTS UPDATE

No winners at all today so a £45.65 loss.  My new balance is £729.09 (Bank £1056.22)

5 UK meetings tomorrow.  I counted 3 class 3 races and 6 class 4 races.  Let's hope that I can find a winner or two ?

 

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Nottingham 6.45

DE MAZZARO 11/4

Won at 3/1.

23 / 69 + 27.19 lsp.