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Racing Chat -Monday 19th July


Villa Chris
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Three selections. One from the flats and two jumps . 
 

3.20 Ayr

Top two rated are...

Vintager 9

Maries Diamond 7.75

Vintager is the bet, 10 points 3/1 

4.10 Cartmel 

Top two rated are.....

Tontos Spirit 9.5

Ballyvic Boru 9

Tonto is the bet, 10 points 9/4

4.45 Cartmel 

Top two rated are .....

Dressedforsuccess 8.3

Licklighter/ William Of Orange 8.2

Dressedforsuccess is the bet, and is probably well  handicapped, 10 points 15/8

Edited by Villa Chris
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Only looked at two races so far using my revised selection worksheet

3.20 Ayr Shelir £8.15 win at 3.75 = £20.00 profit if win.  Ins bet is £2 win at 5.8 on Maries Diamond at 5.8 = £1.42 if that wins  Fascinating class 2 contest.  Any one of the top four market contenders may win this.  Strictly speaking should have got 4/1 about my selection(s).  Gone for top rated Timeform horse and the in form David O'meara team.  My insurance bet is on the Timeform selection and top RPR Nap rated horse 

4.10 Cart Tonto's Spirit £10.20win at 3.20 = £20.03 profit if it wins.  Had an insurance bet on Ballyvic Boru with Brian Hughes aboard.  I almost can't believe how its price has drifted. £2 win at 9.4 = £6.86 profit if it wins.  I don't like Lermoos Legend a class 5 winner up in  grade and up 9lbs.  Sword Of Fate looks like a risky proposition.

This increased analysis is more time consuming but I hope will be more rewarding in future

Possibly back later

Total stakes £22.35

 

 

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1 x EW double

5.15 Cart - Jackhammer (10/3) - Dianne Sayer has her runners in excellent form, a long time since over hurdles but does have a recent flat run. 7.15 Bev - Shine on Brendan (7/2) - Trainer Harvey Bastiman is suposedly on the cold list but he does have a 38% strike rate at Beverley, good jockey, well handicapped, and has attracted money.

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

 

4.10 Cart Tonto's Spirit £10.20win at 3.20 = £20.03 profit if it wins.  Had an insurance bet on Ballyvic Boru with Brian Hughes aboard.  I almost can't believe how its price has drifted. £2 win at 9.4 = £6.86 profit if it wins.  I don't like Lermoos Legend a class 5 winner up in  grade and up 9lbs.  Sword Of Fate looks like a risky proposition.

 

 

 

Very interesting little race! Sword of Fate has been in my tracker for a while and likes it round here, 2m4f on soft last time wouldn't have been ideal, still well handicapped on old form and should go close. 

The best bit of form for me though was Check My Pulse on chase debut here behind a Nicky Henderson hot pot, I think that will turn out to have been an impossible task off level weights...looks very well handicapped on that run and gets 13lb from the fav, wasn't as good at Southwell last time but if I had to bet on one it would probably be him.

A very different track for Lermoos Legend and up 20lb for the last few runs but you couldn't rule him out.

Fav obviously loves it round here and is sure to be in the mix.

Not had a bet but looking forward to watching it. 

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1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

Very interesting little race! Sword of Fate has been in my tracker for a while and likes it round here, 2m4f on soft last time wouldn't have been ideal, still well handicapped on old form and should go close. 

The best bit of form for me though was Check My Pulse on chase debut here behind a Nicky Henderson hot pot, I think that will turn out to have been an impossible task off level weights...looks very well handicapped on that run and gets 13lb from the fav, wasn't as good at Southwell last time but if I had to bet on one it would probably be him.

A very different track for Lermoos Legend and up 20lb for the last few runs but you couldn't rule him out.

Fav obviously loves it round here and is sure to be in the mix.

Not had a bet but looking forward to watching it. 

I totally agree with you that it is probably best to sit out his race and enjoy watching watching how it unfolds.  Having done the work on it I took a punt on what I felt were the best chances.  I didn't back Hatcher yesterday and regretted it.  Let's hope that I don't regret backing my two today 🙂

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3 hours ago, harrisman said:

Ayr 14.10

 

In an open looking 7f on good to firm I fancy the maiden Klopp of the Kop to be in contention. Both of its best RPR's have been recorded on good going and dropped into a lower grade must have a chance against similarly modest individuals. 11/2ew

Nice work Danny Tudhope indeed. Drifted out as well to 13/2!

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Came through end the end and drifted to 6/4 so increased the win to just under 9/4, unfortunately Vintager letting the treble down that would have been a very profitable return. 

Decent return though. 

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Only looked at two races so far using my revised selection worksheet

3.20 Ayr Shelir £8.15 win at 3.75 = £20.00 profit if win.  Ins bet is £2 win at 5.8 on Maries Diamond at 5.8 = £1.42 if that wins  Fascinating class 2 contest.  Any one of the top four market contenders may win this.  Strictly speaking should have got 4/1 about my selection(s).  Gone for top rated Timeform horse and the in form David O'meara team.  My insurance bet is on the Timeform selection and top RPR Nap rated horse 

4.10 Cart Tonto's Spirit £10.20win at 3.20 = £20.03 profit if it wins.  Had an insurance bet on Ballyvic Boru with Brian Hughes aboard.  I almost can't believe how its price has drifted. £2 win at 9.4 = £6.86 profit if it wins.  I don't like Lermoos Legend a class 5 winner up in  grade and up 9lbs.  Sword Of Fate looks like a risky proposition.

This increased analysis is more time consuming but I hope will be more rewarding in future

Possibly back later

Total stakes £22.35

 

 

Got my money back on Maries Diamond but Tonto blew out for Kemosabe in the next race

Have chanced £15 win on Companionship (TM) at 2.8 = £20.04 at Windors if it wins and £6.55 win at 3.3 on Betty Crean LA (WB) (6p ins bet) in the 8.40 at WIndsor = £21.55 outlay 

 

 

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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Got my money back on Maries Diamond but Tonto blew out for Kemosabe in the next race

Have chanced £15 win on Companionship (TM) at 2.8 = £20.04 at Windors if it wins and £6.55 win at 3.3 on Betty Crean LA (WB) (6p ins bet) in the 8.40 at WIndsor = £21.55 outlay 

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Two of my favourite jockeys in the last race at Windsor and they both got beat.  what a bummer.  This has dented my profits by £32.33 and my new balance is now £774.74 (Bank £1056.22).  It seems so difficult to build up and then so easy to take a knock. 

Mainly rubbish racing tomorrow. even though we have four meetings in the UK.  I counted just 7 class 4 events and only one class 2 event in the 7.05 at Chelmsford. this is a handicap with a 2/1 favourite

Sleep well, I know I will

 

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