Racing Chat - Saturday 17th July

[Wildgarden]

7 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Summer Jumps .

230 Cartmel - Alqmar 6/4 paddy power  1st 13/8

240 MRas - Royal Village 40/1 eway Betfair 5 places 

310 MRas - Taste The Fear 10/3 Bet365 1st 10/3

450 Cartmel - Breaking The Ice 6/1 eway sky bet 4 places  1st 8/1 ( no b.o.g )

great work today

[calva decoy]

Oh dear Mark Crehan , can't see Sir Michael giving you many rides after that absolute cock up in Donny's 7.35 ?

[Wildgarden]

5 hours ago, Bang on said:

Way too much racing, makes it very time consuming. Anyway, todays selections.

2 x EW doubles

4.10 Newb - Ready to Venture (10/3) -Beaten fav LTO but the warm weather and drying ground will be better for her. 5.25 Cart - Millie the Minx (3/1) - Trainer Dianne Sayer in good form at the moment and seems to like Cartmel.

5.15 Nmkt - Star of Orion (3/1) - Well beaten last time, but that was Royal Ascot, this a definite drop in class and has some back form. 6.10 Ripon - Symbol of Hope (10/3) - this seems a little easier than recent tests, trainer in decent form and a jockey I like.

Also 1 x short price WIN double.

3.50 M.ras - Saint de Reve (8/11)- Paul Nicholls runner is the selection in a 3 runner contest. 7.35 Donc - Aerion Power (6/4) - Drawn on the wrong side at Ascot last time, he can resume progress. (Pays around 10/3)

 

how dodgy was 735 did mark think it was end of race! i had this not happy.

[MCLARKE]

20 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Newmarket 1.40

VALUE THEORY 11/4

Won at 2/1.

22 / 66 + 26.19 lsp.

+15.92 lsp for the month so guaranteed a profit this month.

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

No luck with the Trixie

3.10 M/R Taste The Fear £7 win at 4.3 = £20.04.  Ins bet on Giovanni change £2.65 win at 3.65 = 2p profit if it slams my selection.  Total stakes = £9.65

 

RESULTS UPDATE

My Trixie failed after getting the first leg.  I was a bit unlucky with Adnaan.  It came 5th at 100/1 when I had a place bet for 4 places.  At least Taste The Fear won which created a net profit on the day of £13.04.  This makes my new balance £807.07 (Bank £1056.22)

It looks as though trying to find races with just two main rivals could be a good winning strategy.  I quite like the insurance bet angle rather than dutching because at least one is going for one's selection and just taking a wise precaution to offset the liability if the other rival wins.  It was good to see that Real world won and gave strength to the theory that the horse was pounds in with Movin TIme based upon the differences between their revised marks and the current RPR/Timeform ratings on the day.  I was trying to find a comparison with Captain Tom Cat but all the info has gone.  All the pundits were saying that the horse had shot up in the weights.  However when I looked it had only gone up 3lbs since its last run but had gone up 22 lbs since two months ago.  All tricky stuff to build into calculations.

Quite a few class 3 races tomorrow and one class 2.  I will try and capture the ATR data today as I don't like it when all the info just disappears within a couple of minutes when a race is over

 

 

 

[The Brigadier]

On 7/16/2021 at 5:24 PM, The Brigadier said:

Standard wise its not the strongest of Saturday’s but we have 8 races on ITV from Newbury, summer jumpers at Market Rasen and the Irish Oaks from The Curragh. The weather’s set fine so we’ll be looking at drying fast ground for all meetings.  So here we go with my run through for Saturday:- 

 

Newbury 150

The 10F Steventon Stakes is a listed race contested this season by 10 runners. It has an open feel about the race with only 8lb on official ratings covering the entire field although having been with Saeed Bin Suroor’s Real World at Royal Ascot when he annihilated the field on the far side in the Royal Hunt Cup I’m loathe to jump ship now  and he would be a small stakes selection here with Marco Ghiani again in the saddle (although he can’t claim here like he did at Ascot as he’s since lost his claim). With future group entries in the Lennox Stakes and Celebration Stakes at Goodwood he looks sure to go close. Movin Time is an interesting runner having been well backed in the Hampton Court Stakes at Ascot when finishing 5th beaten 5L by Mohaafeth and has claims along with the Wolferton Stakes 3rd Solid Stone and 4th Blue Cup. A tight race but preference is for Real World. 

REAL WORLD 1 1/2  points win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Market Rasen 205

The 2 mile Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle has attracted a competitive field of 15 with Nicky Henderson training the current favourite Hooper who’s mopped up his last 5 races, the last three under Ben Ffrench Davis who claims 7lb and retains the ride here. Ffrench Davis has only won three races in his short career all on Hooper and this will be his biggest test to date. The horse I like here is the JP McManus owned, Philip Hobbs trained Camprond. He has a progressive profile in his short hurdles career having not been out of the first three in his 6 starts over timber including placing in a valuable Aintree handicap at the National meeting and the Swinton Handicap at Haydock. He looks excellent each way value today with Tom O’Brien, who’s been in the saddle on his last two starts again on board. 

CAMPROND 2 points each way @ 4/1 Betfred 1/5^th 1234 

 

Newbury 225

A valuable 2 mile handicap with a warm favourite in Zeeband who was a comfortable enough winner of the Northumberland Vase last time having been raised 8lb and has a lot to like here although his price of around 5/2 is a bit short. He’ll be part of my staking plan however as I think he’s the most likely winner. Withhold is a veteran who plundered this race a couple of years ago and can now race off of a 2lb lower mark and is not out of this. Second favourite Rodrigo Diaz has to prove his stamina (although it should really suit him).  Margaret Dumont was runner up in the Northumberland Vase to Zeeband and re-opposes here on 5lb better terms for a 2 1/2L beating so also has a chance. Scaramanga arrives here having won twice over hurdles in the spring and is now rated as high as 151 in that sphere compared to a flat mark today of only 86. I’m not sure why the trainer’s daughter Megan Nicholls, who’s my favourite female jockey is not on board as she has been previously with her place taken by Hayley Turner but at an each way price I’ll be backing him as well as Zeeband. 

ZEEBRAND 2 points win @ 11/4 Paddy Power

SCARAMANGA 1 point each way @ 14/1 Bet365 !/4 123

 

Market Rasen 240

A highly competitive maximum field of 16 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Summer Plate run over 2m 5F 89yds. A case can be made for plenty though the one to beat is the Dr Newland trained Captain Tom Cat who’s unbeaten over fences in three outings at Aintree and twice at Worcester when going off odds on on all three starts. He’s made all for those wins so expect Sam Twiston-Davies, who’s been on board for his hat trick of wins, to force the pace and hopefully get some of these out of their comfort zone early although there are quite a few pace setters in the field who might fancy a piece of the action up front as well. Laura Morgan’s Fire Away is on a hat trick and should run well along with Lord Bryan who’s another that likes to go forward. 

CAPTAIN TOM CAT 2 points each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5^th 12345

 

 

Newbury 300

2020 winner Tabdeed can follow up here for trainer Owen Burrows and jockey Jim Crowley for owners Shadwell Estate. The best in at today’s weights by 3lb from three others he was a 9/2 winner from the subsequently retired The Tin Man last year and ran a nice race three weeks ago when 4th beaten 2L in the Chipchase Stakes on Northumberland Plate day at Newcastle on the tapeta surface. That should have primed him up nicely for this. Kings Lynn found trouble in both his races at Royal Ascot but should run his usual race today whilst Diligent Harry (who was just ahead of the selection at Newcastle) has to prove he can be as effective on the turf as he’s never actually raced under rules on it. They’re the three obvious players here but my selection has to be Tabdeed to win this for the second successive year. 

TABDEED 2 points win @ 3/1 Paddy Power

 

Market Rasen 310

The weakest of the three jump races on ITV this afternoon with top weight Giovanni Change trained by the more than capable Yorkshire based handler Mark Walford my fancy here. He has an excellent record at the track winning two of his three starts and was not disgraced when last seen over hurdles when third in a valuable Aintree handicap hurdle in May. He has had a pipe opener on the flat since when not sighted in a Catterick maiden and can bounce back to winning form here in what looks a very winnable contest. 

GIOVANNI CHANGE 1 point win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

 

Curragh 325

This is a no bet race as favourite Snowfall looks a certainty. She won the Epsom Oaks by the biggest distance ever of a Epsom classic and is un-opposable here. That day she had Divinely 18L back in 3rd , La Joconde 33L back in 11th and Willow last beaten some 40L. It’s impossible to see any of that trio turning the form around She’s currently a top,priced 2/7 and I could see her going off a 1/6 chance. Watch and enjoy.

 

Newbury 340

Chipotle is a strong fancy in the days biggest field. The old saying goes the bigger the field the bigger the certainty and I’m hoping that applies here with Eve Johnson-Houghton’s  Royal Ascot winner who has everything going for him. High numbers have been the place to be in the past in this Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes run over 5F and a draw of 20 looks ideal especially with pace around him. His only disappointing run came at Sandown on soft ground and with a warm and dry forecast the ground has come right for him. His usual jockey Charlie Bishop is serving a ban so David Probert comes in for the spare ride. There may be 21 rivals but only a couple can seriously be fancied against him. Vintage Clarets hails from the Richard Fahey stable who has won 3 of the last 8 runnings and his 3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot is comparable to Chipotle’s Windsor Castle Stakes win although the Coventry form has yet to be boosted and he has to cope with a drop back a furlong here. Richard Hannon is another trainer who does well in this race with 3 wins in the last 7 years and his Gubbas is the unexposed one at the head of the market that has to be respected. We haven’t seen him since winning at Leicester in April but with his trainers superb record in the race has to be considered. He may be a short price but I’m expecting a winning run from Chipotle and he’s my best bet of the day. 

CHIPOTLE (pictured below) 3 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor

 

 

Another decent winning week - 2 winners @ 4/1 and 14/1 and two places giving me a profit on the day of 15.2 points. Shame Chipotle didn't get a clear run.

[Darran]

13 hours ago, DanV89 said:

Got you, cheers mate. Seems an extraordinary hike in the weights?!

That was the point. He was handicapped harshly on the Chepstow run because the handicapper had the winner running up to a mark of 114 which is mad and even after being beaten twice since in hunter chases his mark is currently 110 which is still about 20lbs too high. The handicapper doesn't have a clue how to handicap hunter chases and where he used to be too lenient he is now often too harsh. That Chepstow race was a very weak affair, especially as the odds on favourite ran a stinker, but the handicapper rated it as if it was a decent Class 4 chase. Didn't pay off yesterday with the bad mistake but he was very well backed and in the right race at the right price I'd give him another chance.