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Racing Chat - Saturday 17th July


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Standard wise its not the strongest of Saturday’s but we have 8 races on ITV from Newbury, summer jumpers at Market Rasen and the Irish Oaks from The Curragh. The weather’s set fine so we’ll be looking at drying fast ground for all meetings.  So here we go with my run through for Saturday:- 

 

Newbury 150

The 10F Steventon Stakes is a listed race contested this season by 10 runners. It has an open feel about the race with only 8lb on official ratings covering the entire field although having been with Saeed Bin Suroor’s Real World at Royal Ascot when he annihilated the field on the far side in the Royal Hunt Cup I’m loathe to jump ship now  and he would be a small stakes selection here with Marco Ghiani again in the saddle (although he can’t claim here like he did at Ascot as he’s since lost his claim). With future group entries in the Lennox Stakes and Celebration Stakes at Goodwood he looks sure to go close. Movin Time is an interesting runner having been well backed in the Hampton Court Stakes at Ascot when finishing 5th beaten 5L by Mohaafeth and has claims along with the Wolferton Stakes 3rd Solid Stone and 4th Blue Cup. A tight race but preference is for Real World. 

REAL WORLD 1 1/2  points win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Market Rasen 205

The 2 mile Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle has attracted a competitive field of 15 with Nicky Henderson training the current favourite Hooper who’s mopped up his last 5 races, the last three under Ben Ffrench Davis who claims 7lb and retains the ride here. Ffrench Davis has only won three races in his short career all on Hooper and this will be his biggest test to date. The horse I like here is the JP McManus owned, Philip Hobbs trained Camprond. He has a progressive profile in his short hurdles career having not been out of the first three in his 6 starts over timber including placing in a valuable Aintree handicap at the National meeting and the Swinton Handicap at Haydock. He looks excellent each way value today with Tom O’Brien, who’s been in the saddle on his last two starts again on board. 

CAMPROND 2 points each way @ 4/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234 

 

Newbury 225

A valuable 2 mile handicap with a warm favourite in Zeeband who was a comfortable enough winner of the Northumberland Vase last time having been raised 8lb and has a lot to like here although his price of around 5/2 is a bit short. He’ll be part of my staking plan however as I think he’s the most likely winner. Withhold is a veteran who plundered this race a couple of years ago and can now race off of a 2lb lower mark and is not out of this. Second favourite Rodrigo Diaz has to prove his stamina (although it should really suit him).  Margaret Dumont was runner up in the Northumberland Vase to Zeeband and re-opposes here on 5lb better terms for a 2 1/2L beating so also has a chance. Scaramanga arrives here having won twice over hurdles in the spring and is now rated as high as 151 in that sphere compared to a flat mark today of only 86. I’m not sure why the trainer’s daughter Megan Nicholls, who’s my favourite female jockey is not on board as she has been previously with her place taken by Hayley Turner but at an each way price I’ll be backing him as well as Zeeband. 

ZEEBRAND 2 points win @ 11/4 Paddy Power

SCARAMANGA 1 point each way @ 14/1 Bet365 !/4 123

 

Market Rasen 240

A highly competitive maximum field of 16 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Summer Plate run over 2m 5F 89yds. A case can be made for plenty though the one to beat is the Dr Newland trained Captain Tom Cat who’s unbeaten over fences in three outings at Aintree and twice at Worcester when going off odds on on all three starts. He’s made all for those wins so expect Sam Twiston-Davies, who’s been on board for his hat trick of wins, to force the pace and hopefully get some of these out of their comfort zone early although there are quite a few pace setters in the field who might fancy a piece of the action up front as well. Laura Morgan’s Fire Away is on a hat trick and should run well along with Lord Bryan who’s another that likes to go forward. 

CAPTAIN TOM CAT 2 points each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

 

Newbury 300

2020 winner Tabdeed can follow up here for trainer Owen Burrows and jockey Jim Crowley for owners Shadwell Estate. The best in at today’s weights by 3lb from three others he was a 9/2 winner from the subsequently retired The Tin Man last year and ran a nice race three weeks ago when 4th beaten 2L in the Chipchase Stakes on Northumberland Plate day at Newcastle on the tapeta surface. That should have primed him up nicely for this. Kings Lynn found trouble in both his races at Royal Ascot but should run his usual race today whilst Diligent Harry (who was just ahead of the selection at Newcastle) has to prove he can be as effective on the turf as he’s never actually raced under rules on it. They’re the three obvious players here but my selection has to be Tabdeed to win this for the second successive year. 

TABDEED 2 points win @ 3/1 Paddy Power

 

Market Rasen 310

The weakest of the three jump races on ITV this afternoon with top weight Giovanni Change trained by the more than capable Yorkshire based handler Mark Walford my fancy here. He has an excellent record at the track winning two of his three starts and was not disgraced when last seen over hurdles when third in a valuable Aintree handicap hurdle in May. He has had a pipe opener on the flat since when not sighted in a Catterick maiden and can bounce back to winning form here in what looks a very winnable contest. 

GIOVANNI CHANGE 1 point win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

 

Curragh 325

This is a no bet race as favourite Snowfall looks a certainty. She won the Epsom Oaks by the biggest distance ever of a Epsom classic and is un-opposable here. That day she had Divinely 18L back in 3rd , La Joconde 33L back in 11th and Willow last beaten some 40L. It’s impossible to see any of that trio turning the form around She’s currently a top,priced 2/7 and I could see her going off a 1/6 chance. Watch and enjoy.

 

Newbury 340

Chipotle is a strong fancy in the days biggest field. The old saying goes the bigger the field the bigger the certainty and I’m hoping that applies here with Eve Johnson-Houghton’s  Royal Ascot winner who has everything going for him. High numbers have been the place to be in the past in this Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes run over 5F and a draw of 20 looks ideal especially with pace around him. His only disappointing run came at Sandown on soft ground and with a warm and dry forecast the ground has come right for him. His usual jockey Charlie Bishop is serving a ban so David Probert comes in for the spare ride. There may be 21 rivals but only a couple can seriously be fancied against him. Vintage Clarets hails from the Richard Fahey stable who has won 3 of the last 8 runnings and his 3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot is comparable to Chipotle’s Windsor Castle Stakes win although the Coventry form has yet to be boosted and he has to cope with a drop back a furlong here. Richard Hannon is another trainer who does well in this race with 3 wins in the last 7 years and his Gubbas is the unexposed one at the head of the market that has to be respected. We haven’t seen him since winning at Leicester in April but with his trainers superb record in the race has to be considered. He may be a short price but I’m expecting a winning run from Chipotle and he’s my best bet of the day. 

CHIPOTLE (pictured below) 3 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor

 

 

Chipotle.jpg

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4.50 Cartmel

When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran awfully at Ffos Las on his first start after Chepstow, but there was much more promise at Uttoxeter earlier in the month when he was 4th over 2m4f. The step back up in trip should suit based on his Chepstow run and with his jockey claiming 3 I think he is down to a mark that he can run well off and possibly win off. It is a weak contest where another ex hunter chaser Dee Star would be one of the main dangers as he likes Cartmel although he hasn't added to his hunter chase win in 2019. Breaking The Ice seems to be getting his act together as well and looks another likely danger, but if the selection can run as well as he did last time and at Chepstow then he's over priced at double figures.

Blackjacktennessee e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

 

NB best price currently 15/2 with William Hill which is to 4 places

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Market Rasen 2.05 

Camprond 8.75

Mrs Hyde 8.5

Hooper 8.3

Hang In There 8.25

Valentino Dancer 7.75

big field and very competitive going by the ratings . I’ve put up the top 5 and I’ll note that Valentino Dancer has a trainer and jockey in red hot form, plus he’s Irish trained 😁 . Top 4 rated are all proven class wise so very hard to separate . 
 

Unsure what the bet is yet as top rated is skinny odds . Might be better going ew on a horse just below him in the ratings .

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Market Rasen 2.40

Thats A Given 7.8

Captain Tom Cat 7.75

Solomon Grey 7.65

Fire Away 7.25

Captain Tom Cat will be all the buzz here after winning his last 3 by big distances. He’s gone right up in the weights for that which may leave him vulnerable, but he’s obviously very classy . That’s A Given seems to travel well and wind surgery seems to have helped him. Watched a couple of his races back last night and I’d expect him to travel well throughout the race and try and land a blow near the end. He’s ran over further before so he’s got the stamina for this and this shorter distance won’t be a problem. Nice price too. 
 

That’s A Given 11/1 5 points ew 

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8 hours ago, Darran said:

4.50 Cartmel

When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran awfully at Ffos Las on his first start after Chepstow, but there was much more promise at Uttoxeter earlier in the month when he was 4th over 2m4f. The step back up in trip should suit based on his Chepstow run and with his jockey claiming 3 I think he is down to a mark that he can run well off and possibly win off. It is a weak contest where another ex hunter chaser Dee Star would be one of the main dangers as he likes Cartmel although he hasn't added to his hunter chase win in 2019. Breaking The Ice seems to be getting his act together as well and looks another likely danger, but if the selection can run as well as he did last time and at Chepstow then he's over priced at double figures.

Blackjacktennessee e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

 

NB best price currently 15/2 with William Hill which is to 4 places

@Darran thanks for the write up. You’ve mentioned that the horse was rated 68 and was then ‘dropped’ to 83?

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Bless Him   1 50 newb  1/4  PT win  40/1  betfair

Sleeping Lion   2 25  newb  1/2  pt  win  18/1  betfair 

Indianoplis   2  25  newb  1/2  pt  win   18/1  betfair

Desert  3 40  Newb  1/4  pt  win  44/1  betfair  

Method  3 00 newb  1/2  pt  win  12/1 betfair 

 

P/L  =  +  120  pt    error adjusted 

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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

 

Market Rasen 2.05 

Camprond 8.75

Mrs Hyde 8.5

Hooper 8.3

Hang In There 8.25

Valentino Dancer 7.75

big field and very competitive going by the ratings . I’ve put up the top 5 and I’ll note that Valentino Dancer has a trainer and jockey in red hot form, plus he’s Irish trained 😁 . Top 4 rated are all proven class wise so very hard to separate . 
 

Unsure what the bet is yet as top rated is skinny odds . Might be better going ew on a horse just below him in the ratings .

Mrs Hyde is the bet 16/1 ew. Makes sense paying 5 places. Will be thereabouts if can run to last years form where she knocked out consecutive listed wins . 

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Saturday 10pt Place double

1.50 Newbury 8 runners - 3 places 

Derab

2.55 Newmarket 8 runners - 3 places @ 5/6 

Really looking forward to seein Thore Hammer Hansen claim his 3lb on Beat Le Bon Bon and i will be there to see this run up the hill

It finishes well and will be running on at the end for sure

literally just under 2/1

good luck all today

time for a nice full english and a few beers

 

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All prices Bet365:

1.40 Newmarket - 1pt e/w First Crowd @ 9/1

1.50 Newbury - 2pts win Movin Time @ 4/1

2.05 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Voice of Calm @ 14/1

2.25 Newbury - 1pt e/w Just Hubert @ 11/1

2.40 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Topofthecotswolds @ 12/1

3.40 Newbury - 1pt win Gubbass @ 13/2

4.10 Newbury - 1pt e/w Dalanijujo @ 10/1

5.05 Ripon - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 9/1

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Have done some analysis and have not had much success so far.  I thought I had found a good factor to work with regarding ratings in the 1.50 at Newbury.  The Morning Line were banging on about Real World having gone up 14lbs for this race.  Yet Timeform & RPR have it as top rated Clear by 3 and two points. Ahah, I thought is the weak spot between top ratings and increased marks? I decided to look at the other two main rivals.  Derab doesn't seem to have ratings to work with.  On the other hand Movin Time who is -8 and -10 on ratings has gone up 13lbs.  Does this mean that Real World should easily beat Movin Time as it is only one pound higher than than its main rival and is so clear on the ratings?  Perhaps our ratings pundits can help me out here?

Anyway., no special bet from me so far, let's hope that I get a bit more time later.

I have decided on a small Trixie on the early races today.  I won't be backing these for win purposes, though I may well put in a cover bet on the last selection should the first two fail to fire: 

1.50 Nb Real World  9/4

2.05 M/r Camprond 7/2

2.25 Nb Zeeband 3/1

One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £104.12 with Bet365

I have backed a  couple of Jason Weaver's selections for fun

3.00 Nb Method with Tom Marquand aboard £1 win at 10/1

3.40 Nb Adnaan 4TBP £2 at 10.00 = £17.64 if it gets within the first four places

Off to prepare my homemade burger meal now.  Hopefully back later with a more solid option

So many class races to choose from today, my head is spinning.  Good luck to all

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

1.40 Newmarket - 1pt e/w First Crowd @ 9/1

1.50 Newbury - 2pts win Movin Time @ 4/1

2.05 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Voice of Calm @ 14/1

2.25 Newbury - 1pt e/w Just Hubert @ 11/1

2.40 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Topofthecotswolds @ 12/1

3.40 Newbury - 1pt win Gubbass @ 13/2

4.10 Newbury - 1pt e/w Dalanijujo @ 10/1

5.05 Ripon - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 9/1

Great to see you back posting again 🙂

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Tough day but i'm on 2 e/w  over the jumps at Market  Rasen  the first one one is in  the 2.05  MRS HYDE looks a very generous 16/1  5places BOG & in the 2.40 i backed TOPOFTHE COTSWOLDS yesterday when market opened at 16/1  5places not bog i think NTD horse has a cracking e/w shot his son rides the fav for another trainer but  shrewd dad sticks a  3lb claimer on this horse.

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12 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Change the 2nd 68 to 95 and it makes sense! The horse's handicap mark went up from 68 to 95 after finishing runner up in a Chepstow hunter chase.

Got you, cheers mate. Seems an extraordinary hike in the weights?!

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30 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Tough day but i'm on 2 e/w  over the jumps at Market  Rasen  the first one one is in  the 2.05  MRS HYDE looks a very generous 16/1  5places BOG & in the 2.40 i backed TOPOFTHE COTSWOLDS yesterday when market opened at 16/1  5places not bog i think NTD horse has a cracking e/w shot his son rides the fav for another trainer but  shrewd dad sticks a  3lb claimer on this horse.

Just added a small e/w double  wiith betair  sb on above 2  horses  at 22/1 & 12/1 5places bog

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Way too much racing, makes it very time consuming. Anyway, todays selections.

2 x EW doubles

4.10 Newb - Ready to Venture (10/3) -Beaten fav LTO but the warm weather and drying ground will be better for her. 5.25 Cart - Millie the Minx (3/1) - Trainer Dianne Sayer in good form at the moment and seems to like Cartmel.

5.15 Nmkt - Star of Orion (3/1) - Well beaten last time, but that was Royal Ascot, this a definite drop in class and has some back form. 6.10 Ripon - Symbol of Hope (10/3) - this seems a little easier than recent tests, trainer in decent form and a jockey I like.

Also 1 x short price WIN double.

3.50 M.ras - Saint de Reve (8/11)- Paul Nicholls runner is the selection in a 3 runner contest. 7.35 Donc - Aerion Power (6/4) - Drawn on the wrong side at Ascot last time, he can resume progress. (Pays around 10/3)

 

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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Have done some analysis and have not had much success so far.  I thought I had found a good factor to work with regarding ratings in the 1.50 at Newbury.  The Morning Line were banging on about Real World having gone up 14lbs for this race.  Yet Timeform & RPR have it as top rated Clear by 3 and two points. Ahah, I thought is the weak spot between top ratings and increased marks? I decided to look at the other two main rivals.  Derab doesn't seem to have ratings to work with.  On the other hand Movin Time who is -8 and -10 on ratings has gone up 13lbs.  Does this mean that Real World should easily beat Movin Time as it is only one pound higher than than its main rival and is so clear on the ratings?  Perhaps our ratings pundits can help me out here?

Anyway., no special bet from me so far, let's hope that I get a bit more time later.

I have decided on a small Trixie on the early races today.  I won't be backing these for win purposes, though I may well put in a cover bet on the last selection should the first two fail to fire: 

1.50 Nb Real World  9/4

2.05 M/r Camprond 7/2

2.25 Nb Zeeband 3/1

One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £104.12 with Bet365

I have backed a  couple of Jason Weaver's selections for fun

3.00 Nb Method with Tom Marquand aboard £1 win at 10/1

3.40 Nb Adnaan 4TBP £2 at 10.00 = £17.64 if it gets within the first four places

Off to prepare my homemade burger meal now.  Hopefully back later with a more solid option

So many class races to choose from today, my head is spinning.  Good luck to all

 

 

 

 

 

 

No luck with the Trixie

3.10 M/R Taste The Fear £7 win at 4.3 = £20.04.  Ins bet on Giovanni change £2.65 win at 3.65 = 2p profit if it slams my selection.  Total stakes = £9.65

 

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