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Super Bowl Finalists 2021/22


PercyP
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The NFL preparation for the new season is underway. Some teams have strengthened their squads whilst others have regressed.

My early predictions for the super bowl final combine 4 teams from the AFC and 4 teams from the NFC (prices Sky Bet)

 

1 Kansas Chiefs 49 Ers   22/1
2 Kansas Chiefs LA Rams   22/1
3 Kansas Chiefs Tampa Bay   14/1
4 Kansas Chiefs New Orleans Saints   55/1
5 Cleveland Browns 49 Ers   55/1
6 Cleveland Browns LA Rams   55/1
7 Cleveland Browns Tampa Bay   33/1
8 Cleveland Browns New Orleans Saints   130/1
9 Indianapolis Colts 49 Ers   85/1
10 Indianapolis Colts LA Rams   85/1
11 Indianapolis Colts Tampa Bay   55/1
12 Indianapolis Colts New Orleans Saints   200/1
13 New England Patriots 49 Ers   100/1
14 New England Patriots LA Rams   100/1
15 New England Patriots Tampa Bay   60/1
16 New England Patriots New Orleans Saints   225/1

These bets 16 bets @ 1 point = 16 points staked take the pre-season 2021/22 bets to -31 points.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Hi Charon84

Patriots Invested heavily in close season. Great defence ( best in league).
Competition at quarterback this season will drive better performances from Cam.

I am monitoring the Patriots training camp. All vibes are positive.

I look forward to reading your views on the 2021/22 season.

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I Would love to see the Bills go well again , Chiefs will be the obvious favourites to win, Steelers hoping wasnt a 1 season fluke

would be nice to see someone different though again go better than anyone expects

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The great thing about American football is the draft process. The worst teams get first picks of the new talent. Injuries and transfers also impact teams. This makes previous seasons form unreliable.

So far Improved teams include,

LA Rams, 49 Ers, Patriots, Titans, and Baltimore

Great squads,

Chiefs, Bills, Tampa and the Browns

Dark horses,

Vikings, Washington, Panthers

Not long to go now. Can’t wait.

 

 

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Titans I don't agree. They didn't improve that much to be worth mentioning.

Browns do have a great squad, but question marks are still with QB Mayfield. Can he be consistent? Was last year an exception? Don't know. Somehow I want to see it first before I can believe.

I read more people are marking Panthers as a dark horse. I think it's still a team that needs 1-3 years to be a dark horse. They did improve though.

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Hi Charon84,

The reason I believe the Titans have improved is the signing of Julio Jones and Bud Dupree. Titans rely to much on Dererk Henry smashing his way through. Julio will keep the defence guessing. Improvements were needed to the Titans defence, Dupree will help. Injury to colts qb will also help Titans record (expect 10-7) and reach play offs.

Fully agree with your comments on Browns, great to watch need to see the grit to win the Super Bowl.

The panthers were unlucky last year, losing key player Colin McCaffrey early and losing 5 games by 5 points or less including losing at the Chiefs by just 2 points. If they can repeat that form with McCaffrey back they will improve on their 5-11 record. Expect 7/9 wins.

Charon keeping your comments coming. Always keen to see other views. If you were to pick 4 from each division to reach the Super Bowl who would you choose?

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On 8/19/2021 at 1:35 PM, PercyP said:

Hi Charon84,

The reason I believe the Titans have improved is the signing of Julio Jones and Bud Dupree. Titans rely to much on Dererk Henry smashing his way through. Julio will keep the defence guessing. Improvements were needed to the Titans defence, Dupree will help. Injury to colts qb will also help Titans record (expect 10-7) and reach play offs.

Fully agree with your comments on Browns, great to watch need to see the grit to win the Super Bowl.

The panthers were unlucky last year, losing key player Colin McCaffrey early and losing 5 games by 5 points or less including losing at the Chiefs by just 2 points. If they can repeat that form with McCaffrey back they will improve on their 5-11 record. Expect 7/9 wins.

Charon keeping your comments coming. Always keen to see other views. If you were to pick 4 from each division to reach the Super Bowl who would you choose?

Do Titans have enough firepower with one X-reciever? Don't know, but I agree they will win division since Wentz injury. From there on it depends on a whole lot of factors.

Do you think Panthers are a dark horse just because McCaffrey will be back? It isn't enough for me :)

NFC: Buccs, Packers, WFT, Rams (but here there is a little bit of bias ;) )

AFC: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Patriots

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Abit late to the party so I’m playing catch up, I’ve adapted my football ratings to NFL. 
 

Basically Attack/ Defence/ Supremacy ratings which are weighted and based on last seasons regular season (I’ve decided not include post season results in the ratings as to not punish any team who may suffer a heavy defeat after qualifying for them in the first place).

The below ratings are raw at the moment, and by that I mean are purely stats based and do not include any player movements.

I’m still building up a more intricate knowledge of teams, what I’m looking for is there anything in any of the ratings below that immediately stand out as to needing an adjustement one way or the other. 
 

I’ll be plugging the ratings into a model which can be used for the main day of match markets, as well as long term markets. Happy to share throughout the season in exchange for help on the initial ratings.

C59861D8-6C4E-4147-B18F-B0F418BAC635.thumb.jpeg.5fa53f7f97d52de97863d0f9461b17ea.jpegB203A0DD-312C-49CB-952F-B2FC68F4C519.thumb.jpeg.e1c6b87002734cc245fbe575817532eb.jpeg68B4ABC6-CDCB-45EC-BE1E-18EAD88A9B6C.thumb.jpeg.2ba304c4190ba62a9c8b4fa2e2bba853.jpeg

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I think you can relate the numbers to average points for (attack), points against (defence) and winning margin (supremacy), the latter essentially being attack minus defence. So high numbers are good except for defence where the opposite applies.

I don’t know if it might be worth breaking points down into how they are scored, e.g. TD v non-TD? A team who scores lots of TD might be expected to do better against a team that concedes a lot of them, rather than one that has more of a bias towards conceding field goals?

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23 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I think you can relate the numbers to average points for (attack), points against (defence) and winning margin (supremacy), the latter essentially being attack minus defence. So high numbers are good except for defence where the opposite applies.

Ah that makes sense. Knowing this there are no stand outs in points/rating.

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The spread firms have an outright index that awards points as follows. If you think a team can do better than expected you would buy them but if you think a team is overrated you would sell.

Winner = 100 pts, Runner-up = 70 pts, Lose Conference Championship = 50 pts, Lose Divisional Playoff = 33pts, Wild card = 20 pts. All others = 0.

The following table shows the teams ranked by the average spread price, e.g  Kansas are favourites at 44.5 so pretty much expected to at least make the Conference Championship. I've also shown each team's price as a percentage of the favourite's price and split the teams into 3 rough categories, say contenders, pretenders and time wasters! Be interested if anyone thinks any teams are particularly flattered or slandered by this ranking.

# Team Spread Spread %
1 Kansas City Chiefs 44.5 100.00
2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 39 87.64
3 Buffalo Bills 33.5 75.28
4 Baltimore Ravens 30 67.42
5 Green Bay Packers 29.25 65.73
6 San Francisco 49ers 28.5 64.04
7 Los Angeles Rams 26.5 59.55
8 Cleveland Browns 26 58.43
9 Tennessee Titans 22.75 51.12
10 Seattle Seahawks 20.5 46.07
11 Dallas Cowboys 19.5 43.82
12 Indianapolis Colts 17.25 38.76
13 New England Patriots 16.25 36.52
14 Miami Dolphins 16 35.96
15 Los Angeles Chargers 15 33.71
16 New Orleans Saints 14.5 32.58
17 Minnesota Vikings 14 31.46
18 Arizona Cardinals 13.75 30.90
19 Washington 13 29.21
20 Denver Broncos 12.5 28.09
21 Pittsburgh Steelers 12.5 28.09
22 Chicago Bears 9.5 21.35
23 Atlanta Falcons 9 20.22
24 New York Giants 8.5 19.10
25 Carolina Panthers 8.5 19.10
26 Philadelphia Eagles 6.75 15.17
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 12.36
28 Las Vegas Raiders 5.5 12.36
29 Cincinnati Bengals 2.75 6.18
30 New York Jets 2.25 5.06
31 Detroit Lions 1.75 3.93
32 Houston Texans 1.25 2.81
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I've had a fiver each way on the Cleveland Browns at 16/1 with Hills

They've got a promotion whereby you get a £2 free bet every time Kamara, Adams, Hill or Henry score a TD during September so hopefully the freebies will cover most if not all of the interest and it gives me an interest in proceedings. (A similar promotion on the Premier League got me 80% of my stake back on Chelsea to win.)

Worth bearing in mind if Hills are offering a decent price about a team you're considering backing win or each way.

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