Racing Chat - Thursday July 8th

[The Brigadier]

The Newmarket July meeting kicks off tomorrow with the ground currently good to firm but with plenty of showers around we will have to monitor the ground conditions throughout the week. There’s also a race from Carlisle on terrestrial TV and here’s my thoughts on the ITV quintet:- 

 

Newmarket 150

Charlie Appleby’s Yibir has some smart form which ties in with the likes of Derby winner Adayar, Royal Ascot winner Alenquer and Irish Derby runner up Lone Eagle from earlier in the season and looks to hold a decent chance here for the boys in blue. Gelded since last seen he missed his engagement at Royal Ascot in the Queens Vase due to the very soft ground and comes here a fresh horse. His main danger is probably the Gosden’s Stowell who is best known for giving Rab Havlin an enforced holiday on his debut when ridden with kid gloves behind stable companion Polling Day. He’s obviously a smart sort as he’s won since at Ascot and ran 3rd in the Queen’s Vase behind Appleby’s Kemari but the Godolphin operation have a line to that form and can take this with Yibir who wouldn’t want too much rain to fall as he appears best on fast/good ground. 

YIBIR 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

Carlisle 205

A rare visit for the ITV cameras to Carlisle racecourse and this 6F fillies only handicap may go to the well handicapped bottom weight Velocistar trained by Steph Hollinshead and ridden by Megan Nicholls. She travelled down from her Staffordshire base to run a credible second at Newbury last week in a similar standard handicap and can actually race here today off of a 2lb lower mark (she goes up 3lb in future handicaps). Gometra Ginty is two from three at the track but that was over further and isn’t certain to be suited by the sharper trip. 

VELOCISTAR 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill 

 

Newmarket 225

An excellent renewal of the Group 2 July Stakes with several of the Royal Ascot 2 year old races form lines represented. Bryan Smart’s Project Dante ran a stormer at the Royal meeting when chasing down Perfect Power and Go Bears Go in the Norfolk Stakes and that looks smart form now with the latter going in since in the Group 2 Railway Stakes at the Curragh. This is a step up in trip but that shouldn’t inconvenience this son of Showcasing and having won on good to soft wouldn’t mind a shower or two. Graham Lee has been in the saddle for both runs and is retained here. The Coventry Stakes form is represented by the 2nd Eldrickjones and the 5th Ebro River and both should run their races. The best outsider is maybe the Richard Hannon trained Lusail who drops back a furlong having won a 7F novices stakes race on this track from a well regarded Gosden horse. 

PROJECT DANTE 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Newmarket 300

A maximum field of 20 go to post for this 6F three year old only handicap which invariably throws up a decent sprinter although the last two winners were priced at 25/1 and 40/1. Likely favourite Boomshalaa has a lot going for him. Trained locally by Roger Varian he made his handicap debut in the 5F three year old handicap at Royal Ascot on heavy ground when beating all bar the winner Significantly. He’s up a furlong and 3lb here but looks sure to be in the mix especially if the ground eases a bit. Jumby was probably out his depth when running in the Commonwealth Cup last time and back in calmer waters Eve Johnson-Houghton’s top weight is not out of this. Neither is Karl Burke’s Spycatcher  who’s making his handicap debut here but has some smart form with the likes of Rohaan and Creative Force in the bag already. He looks the value each way play here but for the main selection it has to be Boomshalaa.

BOOMSHALAA 1 1/2 points each way @ 5/1 Betfred 1/5^th 12345

SPYCATCHER ½ point each way @ 16/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345

 

Newmarket 335

It’s hard to look beyond the Shadwell owned Al Aasy here in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes. Any showers will help this smooth travelling son of Sea The Stars  who is officially rated 7lb and upwards superior to his 4 rivals. Ultra impressive in two Group 3 victories at Newbury on easy ground in the Spring he was not disgraced when chasing home Pyledriver at Epsom in the Group 1 Coronation Cup, pulling some 7L clear of the remainder. He does seem best with some juice in the ground but I’m pretty certain if connections felt the ground was not to his liking the would pull him out. Sir Ron Priestley looks the pace angle here and his impressive victory from Pyledriver at the Rowley Mile course back in May looks decent form now. He has however flopped since and just maybe he was a it flattered by that form line with Pyledriver mak8ng his re-appearance. He still looks the main threat to the favourite whose price looks sure to contract further with every drop of rain at the July course. 

AL AASY 3 points win @ 4/6 William Hills

 

[yossa6133]

The owner of Popmaster emailed Ken Bruce to let him know it's running today (3:00 Newmarket), sounds like a tip to me! He's also in my tracker, so had a small bet @ 6/1 in an obviously competitive 18 runner race.