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Anytime Goalscorer Experiment


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Had this idea rattling around my head for a while, will try it out on here. Be easier to explain it in the process of listing the variables.

Spread Prices - I'll capture the best buy and sell prices with SPIN and SX and their midpoint, e.g. if a player can be bought at 26 and sold at 24 then the midpoint is 25. This gives me a notional "true" value for everything that follows. I'll stick to players in the 20-35 range which roughly equates to anytime odds between evens and 2/1.

Fair odds - I'll use the midpoint to assess the fair or "true" odds for each player via a poisson based calculation. I'll track the P/L for backing or laying at that price (I'd expect backing to be loss making).

Lay odds - I'll track the return from laying at the fair odds less a 10% edge. I'd expect this to be profitable which is not to say it would always be possible to get matched at that price.

Back odds - I'll track the return from backing at the fair odds plus a 10% edge. I'd expect this to be close to break even. You would probably be more likely to get matched on a back than a lay.

Best odds - I'll note the best available odds for each player on Oddschecker for reference (but ignoring any significantly larger odds with firms that I don't have accounts with).

Status - I'll note whether the player starts, comes on as sub or is a non-runner. I'll be getting these selections done early rather than waiting for line ups throughout the day.

Lay £ - I'll place a lay bet of £10 on each player at the lay odds (shorter if available) and record any matched stake and the cumulative return. This will help to establish whether laying would be viable (in terms of getting matched often enough) as well as profitable. I won't be doing the same for back bets as the player not starting would be a negative for backers.

Results - I'll record how many goals the players score and their actual goal minutes make ups to see how what happens compares to what the prices predicted.

Purpose is broadly to test the validity of a few theories that I have and see if there's a way to make a profit by using the spreads to identify value backs or lays. I'm aiming to run this until I've got a sample of at least 100 players who start. To anyone who's still reading, thanks and well done! :)

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Will get it started with 3 players in tonight's Copa America game. Neymar's priced up too highly on the spreads and is, indeed, odds on across the board with the fixed odds firms.

Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best
Brazil Peru Barbosa 28 31 29.5 2.24 2.02 2.47 2.2
Brazil Peru Richarlison 23 24 23.5 2.67 2.40 2.93 2.4
Brazil Peru Firmino 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 2.4

Hopefully that makes sense, e.g. the spread value of 21 for Firmino gives fair odds of 2.92 to score anytime. He would be a lay at 2.62, a back at 3.21 and is best priced 2.4 on Oddschecker. I can hopefully bed this in while there's not too much footy and have it running smoothly before the domestic season gets underway. Any questions, just read it all again! ;)

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Just Richarlison to account for so far, the other 2 were void. Nothing in the Euros game tonight but a couple in the Copa America.

Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best
Argentina Colombia Messi 28 29 28.5 2.30 2.07 2.53 2.5
Argentina Colombia Aguero 21 24 22.5 2.76 2.48 3.04 3.1
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Aguero void, Messi didn't score (not matched on the lay).

Today's selection is Kane. 27-29 on the spreads (midpoint 28) giving fair odds of 2.33, lay odds 2.1 (not much chance of being matched at that) and back odds of 2.57. Best price 2.5 thought that's beatable on the exchanges or using boosts etc.

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Too early for any meaningful conclusions but laying takes an early lead!

6 selections so far, 3 void and 3 starters, all of whom failed to score (Richarlison, Messi and Kane).

Richarlison the only one I was matched on. I'm not optimistic that the strike rate will remain as high as 1 in 3 for the lays being matched.

I was partly matched on Firmino but that was void as he took no part in the game.

At least I can get the spreadsheet fine tuned while there aren't many games.

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Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best
Brazil Argentina Neymar 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 2.8

 

Currently 2.9 to back and 3.4 to lay on BF so I'd rate your chances of getting matched at the back odds better than that of getting a lay matched.

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Another player who didn't score and wasn't matched on the lay.

The early narrative for this thread is don't back anytime goalscorers, laying them would be a profitable strategy but you'll hardly ever get matched at an acceptable price! :lol

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Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best
England Italy Kane 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 3.05

Kane currently 3.1-3.2 on BF so not much chance of getting the lay matched. Can he break the thread's duck and be the first player to score a goal?

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  • 2 weeks later...

That's 6 straight players failing to score so a good start if selling or laying and a wipeout if backing. Only one player matched at acceptable odds for the lay, most could probably have been backed at the "back" price. Obviously going to need a lot more data and we're going to see a player score eventually. At the best bookies odds it's around an 18/1 shot that they all failed to score.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best
Hearts Celtic Edouard 26 29 27.5 2.36 2.13 2.60 2.375

Another in the evening game. I've got the entire anytime market to myself at the moment but still doubtful I'll get matched at less than the best available odds.

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The quest goes on to find a striker capable of putting the ball in the back of the net! That's eight straight losers for backers and winners for layers. Fully matched on one lay and partially matched on another for a profit of 16.06 points.

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Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best
Bournemouth West Brom Solanke 22 22 22 2.81 2.53 3.09 3
Monaco Nantes Ben Yedder 32 34 33 2.07 1.86 2.28 2.4
Monaco Nantes Volland 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 2.6

Ben Yedder on offer at bigger than the back price, Volland looking the only one with a chance of being matched as a lay.

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Not matched on Solanke (have backed him anytime at 9/4). Ben Yedder on the bench, another qualifier starts in his place.

Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best
Monaco Nantes Boadu 24 26 25 2.54 2.29 2.80 2.25
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14 players who've started and still yet to find one who scores! Fairly obvious to say the returns would favour laying at this stage with a 100% strike rate. I've been fully matched on 2 of them and partially on another 2 for a return of 27.9 points so at least I've got something to show for my efforts.

6 players had best odds (on Oddschecker) better than the "back" odds. Obviously you'd have done your money had you backed them.

Need more data (preferably containing some player's who scored) but my gut feel is this may help identify a laying strategy that strikes a good balance between being profitable and getting a decent number of bets matched.

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Hallelujah, duck broken at last and I backed him to score as well! Unlikely to be matched on the lay of these two.

Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best
Man U Leeds Fernandes 24 25 24.5 2.58 2.32 2.84 2.375
Man U Leeds Greenwood 23 26 24.5 2.58 2.32 2.84 2.4
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