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Racing Chat - Wednesday 30th June


Darran
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The 1.55 at Worcester is a terrible contest and I have to give Royal Chant a decent chance as he makes his handicap debut off a mark of 92. He wouldn't be obviously well handicapped on the basis of his hunter chase form although he did get an RPR of 94 for his Musselburgh 4th and that is probably about right I would say. His last two efforts within a few days of each other at Southwell and Cartmel weren't as good, but his jockey reported that he stopped quickly at Southwell and he looked to do the same on the long run-in at Cartmel behind Dressedforsuccess. He has been given a wind op which you would think is what he needs based on those last two efforts. If it works then he really ought to be hitting the frame at the very least in this awful race which is certainly weaker than any hunter chase he's run in.
 
The only real danger I can see is Regaby who went off favourite last time but fell at the first on his chasing debut. The hurdles run prior to that was decent and he could be on a fair mark. Conceal has had a wind op as well, but he had gone the wrong way over hurdles. If the op works though he could be capable of winning this. I find it hard to make any sort of case for the others though so hopefully the wind op has done the trick because Royal Chant looks over priced at 10-1. The Bowen horse was well backed last night, but he has shown little worthwhile form including when going off favourite last time. Maybe there was an issue that day and the yard are in much better form of course, but he wouldn't be for me.
 
Royal Chant e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
 
The 3.05 looks like being a fairly strong race for the grade, but I think Master Sunrise is worth a small e/w play again. He ran well enough when 2nd for us last time and the winner did it well. This is probably a stronger heat, but if he runs his race again then he could easily hit the frame and he's always the type of horse worth risking at a double figure price.
 
Master Sunrise e/w @ 10/1 with Bet35 (some bookies are going 4 places)
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My Trixie today is:

(A) 4.50 Worc Chasamax 6/4

(B) 7.05 Km Rodrigo Dias 6/4

(C) 7.25 Bath Siam Fox 85/40

£1.50 win Trixie = £6.00 = Poss Return £62.11

Singles: Classes 1-4

7.05 Km Taqarear (JC/JG) £2 win at 6.0

7.25 Bath Zoffarelli £3..00 win at 4.1

Insurance bets regarding Trixie

Outsiders: all classes

1.00 Thirsk Carbonardo (PH/RF) £1 win at 33/1

2.10 Thirsk Fliss Floss (LM/OP) £1 win at 20/1

2.45 Thirsk Regina George £1 win at 40/1

3.55 Thirsk Thegreatestshowman (SC5/AM) £1 win at 18/1

5.10 Muss Kittys Cove 50p win at 80/1 (only backed this as a stab at winning the Naps comp on the last day)

Total stakes = £15.50

Quite a number of outsiders to look at in the evening meetings; not sure if I will get around to it and I do have to temper my enthusiasm too

 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

(A) 4.50 Worc Chasamax 6/4

(B) 7.05 Km Rodrigo Dias 6/4

(C) 7.25 Bath Siam Fox 85/40

£1.50 win Trixie = £6.00 = Poss Return £62.11

Singles: Classes 1-4

7.05 Km Taqarear (JC/JG) £2 win at 6.0

7.25 Bath Zoffarelli £3..00 win at 4.1

Insurance bets regarding Trixie

Outsiders: all classes

1.00 Thirsk Carbonardo (PH/RF) £1 win at 33/1

2.10 Thirsk Fliss Floss (LM/OP) £1 win at 20/1

2.45 Thirsk Regina George £1 win at 40/1

3.55 Thirsk Thegreatestshowman (SC5/AM) £1 win at 18/1

5.10 Muss Kittys Cove 50p win at 80/1 (only backed this as a stab at winning the Naps comp on the last day)

Total stakes = £15.50

Quite a number of outsiders to look at in the evening meetings; not sure if I will get around to it and I do have to temper my enthusiasm too

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like I got a winner for the first leg of my Trixie.

A few more outsiders for tonight

5.35 Km Eddy May (HD) £1 win at 33/1

6.05 Km Elektronic (JS) £1 win at 12/1

6.35 Km Order Of Succession (HD) £1 win at 12/1

7.05 Km Wait Forever (RK) £1 win at 12/1

6.25 Bath Andronicus Beau (TM) £1 win at 16/1

An extravagant £5 added to my total stakes today.  Only time will tell if I should put 50p on selections over 20/1 and £1 on those under 20/1

 

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Looks like I got a winner for the first leg of my Trixie.

A few more outsiders for tonight

5.35 Km Eddy May (HD) £1 win at 33/1

6.05 Km Elektronic (JS) £1 win at 12/1

6.35 Km Order Of Succession (HD) £1 win at 12/1

7.05 Km Wait Forever (RK) £1 win at 12/1

6.25 Bath Andronicus Beau (TM) £1 win at 16/1

An extravagant £5 added to my total stakes today.  Only time will tell if I should put 50p on selections over 20/1 and £1 on those under 20/1

 

RESULTS UPDATE

I thought it was odds on that I would at least get a double or an insurance bet winner after having got the first leg up on my Trixie.  Not to be.  As @calva decoywrites, it is good to see the back of June

I will keep to my regime of betting throughout July and essentially up to the end of the year.  However, in order to keep a tighter rein on stakes I will restrict my stakes to 50p win on any of my outsider selections with odds of 21/1 and over.  All my other outside bets from the barest minimum of odds of 8/1 to 20/1 will be placed for £1 stakes.  

The loss today was £21.50 so my new balance is £726.25 (Bank £1056.22)

Five UK meetings tomorrow.  I counted 21 races including class 3 & 4 races; If i just wanted class 3 there were only 4 races and no class 1 or 2 races at all.

 

 

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