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Racing Chat - Saturday 26th June


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Northumberland Plate day supplemented by some quality racing from Newmarket where despite a few showers around the ground appears to likely  ride on the fast side. We’ve also got the Irish Derby which this year is run at an earlier time. Here’s my thoughts on the 8 ITV races – 

Newcastle 145

A tight knit sprint handicap where bets should be kept to a minimum. Ejtilaab landed a gamble at Epsom last time and despite a 4lb rise comes into the equation. The only three year old in the race is James Tate’s Victory Heights who has a good record at the track (2/3) and is also a player though is drawn on the flank. Tim Easterby’s Staxton won this contest two years ago and is a pound lower now. He flopped at York last time for some reason (possibly ground related?) and to me has as good a chance as any. I’ll take him here each way to small stakes. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 205

The Simon and Ed Crisford filly Najat was visually very impressive when winning at Thirsk on her debut by 4 1/2L but I’m not sure she beat much that day (the thirds been beaten since) and I would rather be with the proven form of the George Boughey trained Cachet who was so impressive here at the Rowley mile track in May and was certainly not disgraced when 5th in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last week beaten 3 1/4L by Sandrine. This represents a drop back in grade and with Nicola Currie, who’s ridden her on both her starts, on top looks good value here. The best outsider may well be Rock Melody who hails from the very capable Kevin Philipport De Foy stable and the form of her win has been franked by the runner up winning since. 

CACHET 2 points each way  @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newcastle 220

The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes is run over the straight 6F of the North East track. Roger Varian’s Khuzaam’s form figures on turf are 524 whilst on synthetic surfaces is 21122211 which probably shows why he didn’t perform up to his best at Sandown on the green stuff last time when last of 4 behind Palace Pier beaten a long way. He’s the best in here at these weights and back on a surface that suits looks sure to run a big race as long as the drop back in distance is no hinderance to him. He’s never actually raced at 6F in his career starting out at a mile but connections obviously feel he has enough pace for this trip and with Shadwell retained jockey Jim Crowley picking him over Tabdeed and Khaadem is my pick here. Diligent Harry is the only three year old in the race and his form ties in with Rohaan. Clive Cox is a dab hand with sprinters and he can battle it out with Khuzaam with preference marginally for the latter. 

KHUZAAM 2 points win @ 9/2 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 240

John and Thady Gosden’s 2019 St Leger winner Logician is a confident selection to take this listed Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes. He was fancied for the Hardwicke Stakes last Saturday but was pulled out at the eleventh hour due to the very soft ground. I’m led to believe his recent work under Martin Harley has suggested that this classy grey is somewhere near back to his best. He had a near death experience following his Leger win and he can finally start to show how good he is. Rab Havlin is in the saddle and rates a good bet. 

LOGICIAN 4 points win @ 6/4 Bet365

 

Newcastle 255

The Northumberland Vase Handicap is a consolation race for those who missed out on a place in the Plate and this year has attracted a maximum field of 20. East Asia looks sure to be thereabouts having racked up a hat trick of victories for Ian Williams since coming over from the UAE. They’ve all been on slow turf though with 12 runs on a synthetic surface yielding no wins. Indigo Times on the other hand has won 6 of his 12 runs on the all-weather but he has to defy a career high handicap mark today. Roger Varian’s Zeeband is an interesting runner stepping up to 2 miles  for the first time. He’s lightly raced but has no experience of racing on a synthetic surface. The one that I feel will run a very big race is the Venetia William’s trained Bellatrixsa. She was last seen on the level when comfortably winning over course and distance for Michael Dods last October and was subsequently sold at the Horses In Training sales for 80,000 Guineas to go hurdling. She’s won two of her four starts over timber and was not disgraced when runner up to subsequent winner The Wrekin at Warwick in May. She’s attained a handicap mark between the sticks of 122 and can race today off of a flat mark of 77 which to my eyes looks lenient. She smacks a bit like the profile of Venetia William’s recent gambled on Chester Cup consolation race winner Green Book. Connor Beasley is a decent enough jockey booking as is her draw in stall 4. I expect a big each way run from this lightly raced grey filly. 

BELLATRIXSA (pictured below) 1 ½ points each way @ 12/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345  

 

Newmarket 315

If you were take the outsider Apollo One and Tinker Toy out of the race there is officially only 5lb between the other 9 runners here in this Group 3 Close Brothers Criterion Stakes. Kinross bounced back to his best last time (Glorious Journey back in 3rd) at Haydock but he does have to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory here and ideally may need ease in the ground. My fancy is the Richard Hannon trained Motakhayyel who is two from two at the July course here including last years Banbury Cup. He’s flopped twice this season but in the hope that this track and a 7 week break has helped I’ll take him at decent odds under Dane O’Neill. 

MOTAKHAYYEL 1 point each way @ 9/1 Boyles 1/5th 123

 

Newcastle 330

This year’s renewal of the Northumberland Plate is as open as ever with top weight Trueshan topping the market at around 5/1. It’s a big ask to win such a handicap off of such a big weight despite the fact that Rhys Clutterbuck is claiming 5lb off of him. Dubious Affair (one for the Matt Hancock supporters maybe!) ran a stormer in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot last week and if that hasn’t left it’s mark looks sure to run well stepping up a couple of furlongs here and 4lb well in.  The best each way value in my eyes (especially with those firms paying additional places, Skybet, William Hill, Unibet and Betway are all 6 places) lies with Dr Newland’s Galata Bridge who actually ran behind Dubious Affair at Ascot last week finishing 3 1/4L behind having taken a keen hold and forcing the pace. He’s got an extra 2F to travel today which may well suit if given a more conservative ride. I can see him going well each way under Luke Morris and is worth a small ew saver with the main bet going to the Charlie Fellowes trained Dubious Affair who was flying at the end of the 1m 6F race last time and can improve for the step up to 2 miles if this race doesn’t come too soon. 

DUBIOUS AFFAIR 1 ½ points each way @  6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

GALATA BRIDGE 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

 

 

Curragh 345

The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is run over 12F and as always the first factor to look for is the Aidan 0’Brien one. The master of Ballydoyle has won it a record 14 times including 6 of the last 10 runnings and saddles 5 of the 11 runners this season. His main hope and pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore is High Definition who ran with plenty of promise in the Dante when 2L third to rival Hurricane Lane at York in May. He came from a long way back and stepping up in trip here should suit this son of Galileo. Does he warrant being as short as he is? Probably not in my book and although it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to blitz this field I’m happy enough to look elsewhere for some each way value. His York conqueror the Charlie Appleby trained Hurricane Lane fits the bill. He went on from the Dante to run an excellent third in the Epsom Derby and the vibes are that he has thrived since. Maiden Mojo Star finished 3 1/4L ahead of him at Epsom when a 50/1 chance and has to be taken seriously here having been supplemented for the race. Mac Swiney was 3 1/4L behind the selection at Epsom and has to prove he truly stays a mile and a half but at the prices I’ll take the Godolphin colt to turn the tables on Mojo Star and upset the O’Brien battalion. 

HURRICANE LANE 1 ½ points each way @ 6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

Bellatrixsa.jpg

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1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:

Northumberland Plate day supplemented by some quality racing from Newmarket where despite a few showers around the ground appears to likely  ride on the fast side. We’ve also got the Irish Derby which this year is run at an earlier time. Here’s my thoughts on the 8 ITV races – 

Newcastle 145

A tight knit sprint handicap where bets should be kept to a minimum. Ejtilaab landed a gamble at Epsom last time and despite a 4lb rise comes into the equation. The only three year old in the race is James Tate’s Victory Heights who has a good record at the track (2/3) and is also a player though is drawn on the flank. Tim Easterby’s Staxton won this contest two years ago and is a pound lower now. He flopped at York last time for some reason (possibly ground related?) and to me has as good a chance as any. I’ll take him here each way to small stakes. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 205

The Simon and Ed Crisford filly Najat was visually very impressive when winning at Thirsk on her debut by 4 1/2L but I’m not sure she beat much that day (the thirds been beaten since) and I would rather be with the proven form of the George Boughey trained Cachet who was so impressive here at the Rowley mile track in May and was certainly not disgraced when 5th in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last week beaten 3 1/4L by Sandrine. This represents a drop back in grade and with Nicola Currie, who’s ridden her on both her starts, on top looks good value here. The best outsider may well be Rock Melody who hails from the very capable Kevin Philipport De Foy stable and the form of her win has been franked by the runner up winning since. 

CACHET 2 points each way  @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newcastle 220

The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes is run over the straight 6F of the North East track. Roger Varian’s Khuzaam’s form figures on turf are 524 whilst on synthetic surfaces is 21122211 which probably shows why he didn’t perform up to his best at Sandown on the green stuff last time when last of 4 behind Palace Pier beaten a long way. He’s the best in here at these weights and back on a surface that suits looks sure to run a big race as long as the drop back in distance is no hinderance to him. He’s never actually raced at 6F in his career starting out at a mile but connections obviously feel he has enough pace for this trip and with Shadwell retained jockey Jim Crowley picking him over Tabdeed and Khaadem is my pick here. Diligent Harry is the only three year old in the race and his form ties in with Rohaan. Clive Cox is a dab hand with sprinters and he can battle it out with Khuzaam with preference marginally for the latter. 

KHUZAAM 2 points win @ 9/2 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 240

John and Thady Gosden’s 2019 St Leger winner Logician is a confident selection to take this listed Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes. He was fancied for the Hardwicke Stakes last Saturday but was pulled out at the eleventh hour due to the very soft ground. I’m led to believe his recent work under Martin Harley has suggested that this classy grey is somewhere near back to his best. He had a near death experience following his Leger win and he can finally start to show how good he is. Rab Havlin is in the saddle and rates a good bet. 

LOGICIAN 4 points win @ 6/4 Bet365

 

Newcastle 255

The Northumberland Vase Handicap is a consolation race for those who missed out on a place in the Plate and this year has attracted a maximum field of 20. East Asia looks sure to be thereabouts having racked up a hat trick of victories for Ian Williams since coming over from the UAE. They’ve all been on slow turf though with 12 runs on a synthetic surface yielding no wins. Indigo Times on the other hand has won 6 of his 12 runs on the all-weather but he has to defy a career high handicap mark today. Roger Varian’s Zeeband is an interesting runner stepping up to 2 miles  for the first time. He’s lightly raced but has no experience of racing on a synthetic surface. The one that I feel will run a very big race is the Venetia William’s trained Bellatrixsa. She was last seen on the level when comfortably winning over course and distance for Michael Dods last October and was subsequently sold at the Horses In Training sales for 80,000 Guineas to go hurdling. She’s won two of her four starts over timber and was not disgraced when runner up to subsequent winner The Wrekin at Warwick in May. She’s attained a handicap mark between the sticks of 122 and can race today off of a flat mark of 77 which to my eyes looks lenient. She smacks a bit like the profile of Venetia William’s recent gambled on Chester Cup consolation race winner Green Book. Connor Beasley is a decent enough jockey booking as is her draw in stall 4. I expect a big each way run from this lightly raced grey filly. 

BELLATRIXSA (pictured below) 1 ½ points each way @ 12/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345  

 

Newmarket 315

If you were take the outsider Apollo One and Tinker Toy out of the race there is officially only 5lb between the other 9 runners here in this Group 3 Close Brothers Criterion Stakes. Kinross bounced back to his best last time (Glorious Journey back in 3rd) at Haydock but he does have to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory here and ideally may need ease in the ground. My fancy is the Richard Hannon trained Motakhayyel who is two from two at the July course here including last years Banbury Cup. He’s flopped twice this season but in the hope that this track and a 7 week break has helped I’ll take him at decent odds under Dane O’Neill. 

MOTAKHAYYEL 1 point each way @ 9/1 Boyles 1/5th 123

 

Newcastle 330

This year’s renewal of the Northumberland Plate is as open as ever with top weight Trueshan topping the market at around 5/1. It’s a big ask to win such a handicap off of such a big weight despite the fact that Rhys Clutterbuck is claiming 5lb off of him. Dubious Affair (one for the Matt Hancock supporters maybe!) ran a stormer in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot last week and if that hasn’t left it’s mark looks sure to run well stepping up a couple of furlongs here and 4lb well in.  The best each way value in my eyes (especially with those firms paying additional places, Skybet, William Hill, Unibet and Betway are all 6 places) lies with Dr Newland’s Galata Bridge who actually ran behind Dubious Affair at Ascot last week finishing 3 1/4L behind having taken a keen hold and forcing the pace. He’s got an extra 2F to travel today which may well suit if given a more conservative ride. I can see him going well each way under Luke Morris and is worth a small ew saver with the main bet going to the Charlie Fellowes trained Dubious Affair who was flying at the end of the 1m 6F race last time and can improve for the step up to 2 miles if this race doesn’t come too soon. 

DUBIOUS AFFAIR 1 ½ points each way @  6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

GALATA BRIDGE 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

 

 

Curragh 345

The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is run over 12F and as always the first factor to look for is the Aidan 0’Brien one. The master of Ballydoyle has won it a record 14 times including 6 of the last 10 runnings and saddles 5 of the 11 runners this season. His main hope and pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore is High Definition who ran with plenty of promise in the Dante when 2L third to rival Hurricane Lane at York in May. He came from a long way back and stepping up in trip here should suit this son of Galileo. Does he warrant being as short as he is? Probably not in my book and although it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to blitz this field I’m happy enough to look elsewhere for some each way value. His York conqueror the Charlie Appleby trained Hurricane Lane fits the bill. He went on from the Dante to run an excellent third in the Epsom Derby and the vibes are that he has thrived since. Maiden Mojo Star finished 3 1/4L ahead of him at Epsom when a 50/1 chance and has to be taken seriously here having been supplemented for the race. Mac Swiney was 3 1/4L behind the selection at Epsom and has to prove he truly stays a mile and a half but at the prices I’ll take the Godolphin colt to turn the tables on Mojo Star and upset the O’Brien battalion. 

HURRICANE LANE 1 ½ points each way @ 6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

Bellatrixsa.jpg

Best of luck , fantastic write up as usual 👍

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A few thoughts from this quarter.
i made quite a bit of money out of Trueshan last year even though marquand gave it a shocking ride in the Ebor, i had it at all rates from 33/1 down in that race but hey ho thats how it goes and i got it all back and much more when Holly gave it a peach in the long distance cup murdering the Ebor winner. But here's the thing, i have this little niggle, Kingo has got Rainbow dreamer in, is he keeping trueshan ticking over in this while using it to keep the weight down on the Dreamer? Okay call me a cynic.

205 newmarket i hate favs but Najat looks quite strong on my speed figures so will have to be a crossed f/c Najat/delmona/fabioasa (desert dreamer also close to these in ratings) one for the mug doublers there, Rainbow dreamer and Desert dreamer? 

145 i cant see past Streamline in this, its a very speedy aw geegee  8/1 says max bet to me, and the Coxman can get one ready.

315 tinker toy is quick and that 12/1 looks tasty i could go on but i wont.

 

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8 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Northumberland Plate day supplemented by some quality racing from Newmarket where despite a few showers around the ground appears to likely  ride on the fast side. We’ve also got the Irish Derby which this year is run at an earlier time. Here’s my thoughts on the 8 ITV races – 

Newcastle 145

A tight knit sprint handicap where bets should be kept to a minimum. Ejtilaab landed a gamble at Epsom last time and despite a 4lb rise comes into the equation. The only three year old in the race is James Tate’s Victory Heights who has a good record at the track (2/3) and is also a player though is drawn on the flank. Tim Easterby’s Staxton won this contest two years ago and is a pound lower now. He flopped at York last time for some reason (possibly ground related?) and to me has as good a chance as any. I’ll take him here each way to small stakes. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 205

The Simon and Ed Crisford filly Najat was visually very impressive when winning at Thirsk on her debut by 4 1/2L but I’m not sure she beat much that day (the thirds been beaten since) and I would rather be with the proven form of the George Boughey trained Cachet who was so impressive here at the Rowley mile track in May and was certainly not disgraced when 5th in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last week beaten 3 1/4L by Sandrine. This represents a drop back in grade and with Nicola Currie, who’s ridden her on both her starts, on top looks good value here. The best outsider may well be Rock Melody who hails from the very capable Kevin Philipport De Foy stable and the form of her win has been franked by the runner up winning since. 

CACHET 2 points each way  @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newcastle 220

The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes is run over the straight 6F of the North East track. Roger Varian’s Khuzaam’s form figures on turf are 524 whilst on synthetic surfaces is 21122211 which probably shows why he didn’t perform up to his best at Sandown on the green stuff last time when last of 4 behind Palace Pier beaten a long way. He’s the best in here at these weights and back on a surface that suits looks sure to run a big race as long as the drop back in distance is no hinderance to him. He’s never actually raced at 6F in his career starting out at a mile but connections obviously feel he has enough pace for this trip and with Shadwell retained jockey Jim Crowley picking him over Tabdeed and Khaadem is my pick here. Diligent Harry is the only three year old in the race and his form ties in with Rohaan. Clive Cox is a dab hand with sprinters and he can battle it out with Khuzaam with preference marginally for the latter. 

KHUZAAM 2 points win @ 9/2 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 240

John and Thady Gosden’s 2019 St Leger winner Logician is a confident selection to take this listed Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes. He was fancied for the Hardwicke Stakes last Saturday but was pulled out at the eleventh hour due to the very soft ground. I’m led to believe his recent work under Martin Harley has suggested that this classy grey is somewhere near back to his best. He had a near death experience following his Leger win and he can finally start to show how good he is. Rab Havlin is in the saddle and rates a good bet. 

LOGICIAN 4 points win @ 6/4 Bet365

 

Newcastle 255

The Northumberland Vase Handicap is a consolation race for those who missed out on a place in the Plate and this year has attracted a maximum field of 20. East Asia looks sure to be thereabouts having racked up a hat trick of victories for Ian Williams since coming over from the UAE. They’ve all been on slow turf though with 12 runs on a synthetic surface yielding no wins. Indigo Times on the other hand has won 6 of his 12 runs on the all-weather but he has to defy a career high handicap mark today. Roger Varian’s Zeeband is an interesting runner stepping up to 2 miles  for the first time. He’s lightly raced but has no experience of racing on a synthetic surface. The one that I feel will run a very big race is the Venetia William’s trained Bellatrixsa. She was last seen on the level when comfortably winning over course and distance for Michael Dods last October and was subsequently sold at the Horses In Training sales for 80,000 Guineas to go hurdling. She’s won two of her four starts over timber and was not disgraced when runner up to subsequent winner The Wrekin at Warwick in May. She’s attained a handicap mark between the sticks of 122 and can race today off of a flat mark of 77 which to my eyes looks lenient. She smacks a bit like the profile of Venetia William’s recent gambled on Chester Cup consolation race winner Green Book. Connor Beasley is a decent enough jockey booking as is her draw in stall 4. I expect a big each way run from this lightly raced grey filly. 

BELLATRIXSA (pictured below) 1 ½ points each way @ 12/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345  

 

Newmarket 315

If you were take the outsider Apollo One and Tinker Toy out of the race there is officially only 5lb between the other 9 runners here in this Group 3 Close Brothers Criterion Stakes. Kinross bounced back to his best last time (Glorious Journey back in 3rd) at Haydock but he does have to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory here and ideally may need ease in the ground. My fancy is the Richard Hannon trained Motakhayyel who is two from two at the July course here including last years Banbury Cup. He’s flopped twice this season but in the hope that this track and a 7 week break has helped I’ll take him at decent odds under Dane O’Neill. 

MOTAKHAYYEL 1 point each way @ 9/1 Boyles 1/5th 123

 

Newcastle 330

This year’s renewal of the Northumberland Plate is as open as ever with top weight Trueshan topping the market at around 5/1. It’s a big ask to win such a handicap off of such a big weight despite the fact that Rhys Clutterbuck is claiming 5lb off of him. Dubious Affair (one for the Matt Hancock supporters maybe!) ran a stormer in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot last week and if that hasn’t left it’s mark looks sure to run well stepping up a couple of furlongs here and 4lb well in.  The best each way value in my eyes (especially with those firms paying additional places, Skybet, William Hill, Unibet and Betway are all 6 places) lies with Dr Newland’s Galata Bridge who actually ran behind Dubious Affair at Ascot last week finishing 3 1/4L behind having taken a keen hold and forcing the pace. He’s got an extra 2F to travel today which may well suit if given a more conservative ride. I can see him going well each way under Luke Morris and is worth a small ew saver with the main bet going to the Charlie Fellowes trained Dubious Affair who was flying at the end of the 1m 6F race last time and can improve for the step up to 2 miles if this race doesn’t come too soon. 

DUBIOUS AFFAIR 1 ½ points each way @  6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

GALATA BRIDGE 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

 

 

Curragh 345

The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is run over 12F and as always the first factor to look for is the Aidan 0’Brien one. The master of Ballydoyle has won it a record 14 times including 6 of the last 10 runnings and saddles 5 of the 11 runners this season. His main hope and pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore is High Definition who ran with plenty of promise in the Dante when 2L third to rival Hurricane Lane at York in May. He came from a long way back and stepping up in trip here should suit this son of Galileo. Does he warrant being as short as he is? Probably not in my book and although it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to blitz this field I’m happy enough to look elsewhere for some each way value. His York conqueror the Charlie Appleby trained Hurricane Lane fits the bill. He went on from the Dante to run an excellent third in the Epsom Derby and the vibes are that he has thrived since. Maiden Mojo Star finished 3 1/4L ahead of him at Epsom when a 50/1 chance and has to be taken seriously here having been supplemented for the race. Mac Swiney was 3 1/4L behind the selection at Epsom and has to prove he truly stays a mile and a half but at the prices I’ll take the Godolphin colt to turn the tables on Mojo Star and upset the O’Brien battalion. 

HURRICANE LANE 1 ½ points each way @ 6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

Bellatrixsa.jpg

I couldn't agree more on Hurricane lane.

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All prices Bet365:

1.35 Newmarket - 2pts win Iconic Queen @ 6/1

1.45 Newcastle - 2pts win Fleeting Prince @ 7/1

2.05 Newmarket - 1pt win Rock Melody @ 11/2

2.20 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Brando @ 16/1

3.15 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Duke of Hazzard @ 10/1

3.30 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Island Brave @ 16/1

4.25 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Hotspur Harry @ 20/1

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My Trixie today is:

1.55 Win Epic Endeavour 11/4

4.05 Nc Hasty Sailor 15/8

745 Don Casilli 13/8

£1 win Trixie = £4 = £56.46 if all three win

Singles

3.45 Curragh Wordsworth £1 win at 12/1 (it is folly not to take an interest in other of AP O'Brien's horses when he has the favourite in the big races)

3.35 Win Century Dream £2 win at 11/4 (didn't quite make it for the Trixie)

3.30 Nc Dubious Affair £1 win at 6/1 

Total stakes £8.00

Hell of a lot of races to choose from today

 

 

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21 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

1.55 Win Epic Endeavour 11/4

4.05 Nc Hasty Sailor 15/8

745 Don Casilli 13/8

£1 win Trixie = £4 = £56.46 if all three win

Singles

3.45 Curragh Wordsworth £1 win at 12/1 (it is folly not to take an interest in other of AP O'Brien's horses when he has the favourite in the big races)

3.35 Win Century Dream £2 win at 11/4 (didn't quite make it for the Trixie)

3.30 Nc Dubious Affair £1 win at 6/1 

Total stakes £8.00

Hell of a lot of races to choose from today

 

 

Yes also done van gough e/w and matchless 7 places  gl 👍

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Newcastle 

2.20 pholas 50/1 1pt ew (4places)

2.55 red force one 33/1 1pt ew (4)

Newmarket 

2.05 najat 5/1 2pt win

3.15 the lir jet 13/2 2pt win

Windsor 4.10 mascat 13/2 2pt win

Curragh

2.30 amber kite 16/1 1pt ew

3.05 dr zempf 9/4 2pt win

3.45 mojo star 17/2 1pt ew

5.25 dream tale 11/1 1pt ew (4)

18 pts staked

Good luck 🤙 

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27 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Thoughts on Trueshan and the Plate. i would suggest you can't win a 2 mile race round there 3 wide all the way.

I didn't watch the race but Trueshan though 6th was only beaten under 4 lengths. In fact the first 11 were all within 5 lengths.  Tough race

 

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On 6/25/2021 at 4:45 PM, The Brigadier said:

Northumberland Plate day supplemented by some quality racing from Newmarket where despite a few showers around the ground appears to likely  ride on the fast side. We’ve also got the Irish Derby which this year is run at an earlier time. Here’s my thoughts on the 8 ITV races – 

Newcastle 145

A tight knit sprint handicap where bets should be kept to a minimum. Ejtilaab landed a gamble at Epsom last time and despite a 4lb rise comes into the equation. The only three year old in the race is James Tate’s Victory Heights who has a good record at the track (2/3) and is also a player though is drawn on the flank. Tim Easterby’s Staxton won this contest two years ago and is a pound lower now. He flopped at York last time for some reason (possibly ground related?) and to me has as good a chance as any. I’ll take him here each way to small stakes. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 205

The Simon and Ed Crisford filly Najat was visually very impressive when winning at Thirsk on her debut by 4 1/2L but I’m not sure she beat much that day (the thirds been beaten since) and I would rather be with the proven form of the George Boughey trained Cachet who was so impressive here at the Rowley mile track in May and was certainly not disgraced when 5th in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last week beaten 3 1/4L by Sandrine. This represents a drop back in grade and with Nicola Currie, who’s ridden her on both her starts, on top looks good value here. The best outsider may well be Rock Melody who hails from the very capable Kevin Philipport De Foy stable and the form of her win has been franked by the runner up winning since. 

CACHET 2 points each way  @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newcastle 220

The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes is run over the straight 6F of the North East track. Roger Varian’s Khuzaam’s form figures on turf are 524 whilst on synthetic surfaces is 21122211 which probably shows why he didn’t perform up to his best at Sandown on the green stuff last time when last of 4 behind Palace Pier beaten a long way. He’s the best in here at these weights and back on a surface that suits looks sure to run a big race as long as the drop back in distance is no hinderance to him. He’s never actually raced at 6F in his career starting out at a mile but connections obviously feel he has enough pace for this trip and with Shadwell retained jockey Jim Crowley picking him over Tabdeed and Khaadem is my pick here. Diligent Harry is the only three year old in the race and his form ties in with Rohaan. Clive Cox is a dab hand with sprinters and he can battle it out with Khuzaam with preference marginally for the latter. 

KHUZAAM 2 points win @ 9/2 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 240

John and Thady Gosden’s 2019 St Leger winner Logician is a confident selection to take this listed Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes. He was fancied for the Hardwicke Stakes last Saturday but was pulled out at the eleventh hour due to the very soft ground. I’m led to believe his recent work under Martin Harley has suggested that this classy grey is somewhere near back to his best. He had a near death experience following his Leger win and he can finally start to show how good he is. Rab Havlin is in the saddle and rates a good bet. 

LOGICIAN 4 points win @ 6/4 Bet365

 

Newcastle 255

The Northumberland Vase Handicap is a consolation race for those who missed out on a place in the Plate and this year has attracted a maximum field of 20. East Asia looks sure to be thereabouts having racked up a hat trick of victories for Ian Williams since coming over from the UAE. They’ve all been on slow turf though with 12 runs on a synthetic surface yielding no wins. Indigo Times on the other hand has won 6 of his 12 runs on the all-weather but he has to defy a career high handicap mark today. Roger Varian’s Zeeband is an interesting runner stepping up to 2 miles  for the first time. He’s lightly raced but has no experience of racing on a synthetic surface. The one that I feel will run a very big race is the Venetia William’s trained Bellatrixsa. She was last seen on the level when comfortably winning over course and distance for Michael Dods last October and was subsequently sold at the Horses In Training sales for 80,000 Guineas to go hurdling. She’s won two of her four starts over timber and was not disgraced when runner up to subsequent winner The Wrekin at Warwick in May. She’s attained a handicap mark between the sticks of 122 and can race today off of a flat mark of 77 which to my eyes looks lenient. She smacks a bit like the profile of Venetia William’s recent gambled on Chester Cup consolation race winner Green Book. Connor Beasley is a decent enough jockey booking as is her draw in stall 4. I expect a big each way run from this lightly raced grey filly. 

BELLATRIXSA (pictured below) 1 ½ points each way @ 12/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345  

 

Newmarket 315

If you were take the outsider Apollo One and Tinker Toy out of the race there is officially only 5lb between the other 9 runners here in this Group 3 Close Brothers Criterion Stakes. Kinross bounced back to his best last time (Glorious Journey back in 3rd) at Haydock but he does have to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory here and ideally may need ease in the ground. My fancy is the Richard Hannon trained Motakhayyel who is two from two at the July course here including last years Banbury Cup. He’s flopped twice this season but in the hope that this track and a 7 week break has helped I’ll take him at decent odds under Dane O’Neill. 

MOTAKHAYYEL 1 point each way @ 9/1 Boyles 1/5th 123

 

Newcastle 330

This year’s renewal of the Northumberland Plate is as open as ever with top weight Trueshan topping the market at around 5/1. It’s a big ask to win such a handicap off of such a big weight despite the fact that Rhys Clutterbuck is claiming 5lb off of him. Dubious Affair (one for the Matt Hancock supporters maybe!) ran a stormer in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot last week and if that hasn’t left it’s mark looks sure to run well stepping up a couple of furlongs here and 4lb well in.  The best each way value in my eyes (especially with those firms paying additional places, Skybet, William Hill, Unibet and Betway are all 6 places) lies with Dr Newland’s Galata Bridge who actually ran behind Dubious Affair at Ascot last week finishing 3 1/4L behind having taken a keen hold and forcing the pace. He’s got an extra 2F to travel today which may well suit if given a more conservative ride. I can see him going well each way under Luke Morris and is worth a small ew saver with the main bet going to the Charlie Fellowes trained Dubious Affair who was flying at the end of the 1m 6F race last time and can improve for the step up to 2 miles if this race doesn’t come too soon. 

DUBIOUS AFFAIR 1 ½ points each way @  6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

GALATA BRIDGE 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

 

 

Curragh 345

The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is run over 12F and as always the first factor to look for is the Aidan 0’Brien one. The master of Ballydoyle has won it a record 14 times including 6 of the last 10 runnings and saddles 5 of the 11 runners this season. His main hope and pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore is High Definition who ran with plenty of promise in the Dante when 2L third to rival Hurricane Lane at York in May. He came from a long way back and stepping up in trip here should suit this son of Galileo. Does he warrant being as short as he is? Probably not in my book and although it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to blitz this field I’m happy enough to look elsewhere for some each way value. His York conqueror the Charlie Appleby trained Hurricane Lane fits the bill. He went on from the Dante to run an excellent third in the Epsom Derby and the vibes are that he has thrived since. Maiden Mojo Star finished 3 1/4L ahead of him at Epsom when a 50/1 chance and has to be taken seriously here having been supplemented for the race. Mac Swiney was 3 1/4L behind the selection at Epsom and has to prove he truly stays a mile and a half but at the prices I’ll take the Godolphin colt to turn the tables on Mojo Star and upset the O’Brien battalion. 

HURRICANE LANE 1 ½ points each way @ 6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

Bellatrixsa.jpg

A disappointing day although Hurricane Lane winning meant the minus figure was only -5.1 points on day.

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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

1.55 Win Epic Endeavour 11/4

4.05 Nc Hasty Sailor 15/8

745 Don Casilli 13/8

£1 win Trixie = £4 = £56.46 if all three win

Singles

3.45 Curragh Wordsworth £1 win at 12/1 (it is folly not to take an interest in other of AP O'Brien's horses when he has the favourite in the big races)

3.35 Win Century Dream £2 win at 11/4 (didn't quite make it for the Trixie)

3.30 Nc Dubious Affair £1 win at 6/1 

Total stakes £8.00

Hell of a lot of races to choose from today

 

 

About 50p down on the day so I have been extravagant and had £1 to win on Casilli in the 7.45 at Donnie to try and recoup my loss

 

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

About 50p down on the day so I have been extravagant and had £1 to win on Casilli in the 7.45 at Donnie to try and recoup my loss

 

Screwed up by 50p

8.15 Don Going Underground £1 win at 11/4 = £3.75 return if it wins, will get me out of trouble too 🙂.  My bank can withstand an overall £2,50 loss on the day 🤣

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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Screwed up by 50p

8.15 Don Going Underground £1 win at 11/4 = £3.75 return if it wins, will get me out of trouble too 🙂.  My bank can withstand an overall £2,50 loss on the day 🤣

RESULTS UPDATE

The most interesting thing for me about the last bet was that the horse was napped by the RP, tipped by Timeform and recommended by ATR, where did it finish? Yep, you guessed it' stone bonking last at 3/1 favourite.  Hence it was not a desperate bet to get out of trouble but a bet based upon sound advice from our esteemed sporting press elite media.  Obviously one has to look a quite a bit beyond the glowing reports of our wonderful sports writers in order to find winners.

Anyway 6 bets today, I count my Trixie's as being one bet despite there actually being 4 component bets to it.  Despite the small stakes  I intend to become the Trixie king over the next few months with side bet strategies so as to try and protect losses accumulating.  Because Century dream one for me my loss was limited to £2.50 today so not too bad considering just one winner from a number of fancied runners.  My new balance is £776.25 (Bank £1056.22)

Just one UK flat meeting tomorrow and two jumps meetings.  Not sure how much time I can find to look at these as I have my son home this weekend and he takes quite a bit of looking after, as he did so today

 

 

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