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  • 4 weeks later...

Leandro Riedi (+6.5) to beat Federico Delbonis at 1.91 with Unibet

Swiss tennis will have to start working without Federer and Wawrinka soon, with Stricker and Riedi being the most promising talents at the moment. Stricker has already made a name for himself, while Riedi needs to step out of the juniors and do some damage. He's just 18, but I've seen him twice this year and he's a good prospect. In front of his home crowd, I think the handicap can be taken care of.

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Dominic Stephan Stricker to beat Arthur Rinderknech at 2.20 with Unibet

I'll also go for the other big Swiss prospect. We all know what he's capable of in Switzerland, so I wouldn't read into his average form that much. That's how youngsters tend to play, do well when faced with a challenge and then lose to someone worse in a Challenger. 

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Danilovic - Rakhimova ,

anyone understands why Rakhimova odds is 1,95 ? h2h is 3-0 including twice this year , 2 months ago on clay she won 6-2 6-4  , so why are her odds so high? you would expect her to be favorite at around 1,6, no?

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Marc Polmans (+5.5) to beat Christian Garin at 1.73 with Pinnacle

Garin has been off the boil a bit lately and he's got some history with Polmans as well. Two tight Grand Slam matches, with one coming in this past Wimbledon. Polmans was trying to make a big comeback there and wasn't too far, I bet he will be pumped up for this. If Garin starts slow or isn't on the top of his game, that could very well spell trouble. It's not often that we get 5.5 or 6.5 lines in men's tennis, but I'm happy to take them if the circumstances look right. Riedi delivered, let's hope Polmans can do as well.

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Emilio Nava to beat Matteo Viola at 1.60 with Pinnacle

I liked Viola back in the day, but he's going downhill, while Nava is a decent prospect. Not too exciting, but he played an excellent match against Maden and the faster conditions should suit him way more than Viola. The Italian feels at home on clay, as you'd expect, and he's been struggling to get his season off the ground. Nava's done much on hard courts in 2021 in any case and I expect that trend to continue here.

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14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Emilio Nava to beat Matteo Viola at 1.60 with Pinnacle

I liked Viola back in the day, but he's going downhill, while Nava is a decent prospect. Not too exciting, but he played an excellent match against Maden and the faster conditions should suit him way more than Viola. The Italian feels at home on clay, as you'd expect, and he's been struggling to get his season off the ground. Nava's done much on hard courts in 2021 in any case and I expect that trend to continue here.

I wouldn´t expect Viola feels at home on clay at all, but anyway I checked the data. Just not to be ´´smartass´´ and then be wrong at the end. As you can see below, Viola has better win ratio on hard (51%) than on clay (42%).

Matches (122-119) > Time Span: Career; Surface: Hard; Level: All ATP, Qualifying, Challengers, CH Qualies

Matches (106-144) > Time Span: Career; Surface: Clay; Level: All ATP, Qualifying, Challengers, CH Qualies

As I watched his match also in Umag few years back, I can say he has bad defence, he relys on his strong serve mostly and ends up points after few shots. This is the only match caught in my eyes today, before I checked forum hehe :) Viola had some hard matches in last weeks, so I think he can keep it close, and line is pretty low.

over 21.5 games @1.77 with WWin

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Steve Johnson (+1.5 sets) to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.76 with Pinnacle

I backed Johnson against Fritz back in Wimbledon and I'm willing to do the same here. Fritz played an epic against Marchenko that also finished late in the night. He looked tired, ready to go to the deciding tie-break, but Marchenko spared him that and produced two double faults in a row to get himself broken. Johnson has a decent record against guys with big serve and should be fresh here. Also wanting to get some revenge for Wimbledon for sure. Fritz is the favorite no doubt, but the odds for Johnson not to lose 0-2 look juicy to me.

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9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I saw plenty of his matches and I remember him playing well even indoors a couple of times. He's ageing, though, and the last few times I've seen him, he was poor. Interesting stats, though, thanks for bringing that up!

this is true, well for now he somehow stays on some level. it's good to see we both won 👍

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On 7/20/2021 at 8:51 PM, CzechPunter said:

Marc Polmans (+5.5) to beat Christian Garin at 1.73 with Pinnacle

Garin has been off the boil a bit lately and he's got some history with Polmans as well. Two tight Grand Slam matches, with one coming in this past Wimbledon. Polmans was trying to make a big comeback there and wasn't too far, I bet he will be pumped up for this. If Garin starts slow or isn't on the top of his game, that could very well spell trouble. It's not often that we get 5.5 or 6.5 lines in men's tennis, but I'm happy to take them if the circumstances look right. Riedi delivered, let's hope Polmans can do as well.

I watched the Garin today and he played like a clown to lose in 3 sets against Gaston. He was a 3 to 10 favorite.

Was 4-1 up in the 3rd and lost his serve 3 times in a row, and a 3rd set breaker 13-11. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 ft pole at the moment.

Yesterday watched Wimbledon semi-finalist Shapavalov lose to to Vit Kopriva (never heard of him!!!!!!!) . He was also a ridiculous low priced favorite.

I think a lot of players are treading water, keeping the ranking intact, and making money at the majors. Gstaad pays the winner 41K euros. A 1st round loser in the majors gets 60K euros. Just peak 4 times a year and maybe at the other masters 1000 and forget the rest. Hang out at home, wake up  next to the wife/GF, chill out with your mates .... or you could go taxi -- airport -- hotel -- practice --- match repeat endlessly.

Edited by neilovan
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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I watched the Garin today and he played like a clown to lose in 3 sets against Gaston. He was a 3 to 10 favorite.

Was 4-1 up in the 3rd and lost his serve 3 times in a row, and a 3rd set breaker 13-11. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 ft pole at the moment.

Yesterday watched Wimbledon semi-finalist Shapavalov lose to to Vit Kopriva (never heard of him!!!!!!!) . He was also a ridiculous low priced favorite.

I think a lot of players are treading water, keeping the ranking intact, and making money at the majors. Gstaad pays the winner 41K euros. A 1st round loser in the majors gets 60K euros. Just peak 4 times a year and maybe at the other masters 1000 and forget the rest. Hang out at home, wake up  next to the wife/GF, chill out with your mates .... or you could go taxi -- airport -- hotel -- practice --- match repeat endlessly.

Welcome to the world of tennis. 🙂 One of the rules I’ve learned, to never bet on a high-ranked player in small tournaments. Usually, they just mark their appearance for the sake of some money (their appearance being also good for the tournament itself).

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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I watched the Garin today and he played like a clown to lose in 3 sets against Gaston. He was a 3 to 10 favorite.

Was 4-1 up in the 3rd and lost his serve 3 times in a row, and a 3rd set breaker 13-11. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 ft pole at the moment.

Yesterday watched Wimbledon semi-finalist Shapavalov lose to to Vit Kopriva (never heard of him!!!!!!!) . He was also a ridiculous low priced favorite.

I think a lot of players are treading water, keeping the ranking intact, and making money at the majors. Gstaad pays the winner 41K euros. A 1st round loser in the majors gets 60K euros. Just peak 4 times a year and maybe at the other masters 1000 and forget the rest. Hang out at home, wake up  next to the wife/GF, chill out with your mates .... or you could go taxi -- airport -- hotel -- practice --- match repeat endlessly.

You won't be far off with that assessment @neilovan and it's incredibly frustrating to watch players going through the motions, or worse just not caring. There are supposed to be sanctions to prevent tanking but the fact is it goes on all the time. Shapovalov yesterday was a prime example. It was obvious he wasn't bothered about winning by the way he played - rushing to the net all the time even if that wasn't the right play, 10 double-faults, unforced errors all over the place. He certainly didn't play like that against Djokovic at Wimbledon and that's because he was fully motivated. With hindsight, fading him was a no-brainer. The Djokovic loss took a lot out of him and when you've lost and been disappointed on the biggest stage of all it's not hard to imagine that it's difficult to get up for a minor tournament like Gstaad. The real mystery for me is why he even turned up - he'd have been better served by having a break, recharging the batteries, taking the time to get over any physical niggles. Add in the limited money on offer at Gstaad and it's even stranger that he turned up at the tournament, although it's possible he was given an appearance fee and that's why he went - I've lost count of the amount of times over the years that a top player plays a 250 or a 500 and loses their first match.

With all that said though, I think if you're betting on tennis you need to accept that these are some of the realities of the sport and then factor them into your betting. The analogy that I use, and I've mentioned it on here before, is thinking about a tennis player in the same way that you think about anyone that does a job. What I mean by that is that in any job, people have good days and bad days, days where they don't want to be at work and days where motivation is low. The idea that playing tennis for a living is a privileged position to be in and so therefore if you're lucky enough to do it then you'll always try your best just isn't realistic. Ultimately, and many players will admit to this even if only off the record, tennis is just a job and any job can become monotonous.

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