Racing Chat - Friday 18th June

[The Brigadier]

Day 4 of Royal ascot and having missed the majority of the rain the ground was riding good to firm today but once again we have the threat of overnight thunderstorms so there is the realistic possibility of the ground changing overnight. Here my thoughts on the 7 races.

 

Ascot 2.30

The 6F Albany Stakes for 2yo fillies kicks off Day 4 with the possibilty of some dig in the ground. Flotus looked particularly smart when hosing up at Goodwood on her debut 27 days ago. The ground that evening was soft and with Dettori booked must go well for the Crisford’s. She looks the main play to me here although it may also be worth a small investment in the George Boughey trained Cachet who won by 5L on her debut at Newmarket in the style of a decent juvenile. Hello You is the other filly here who was visually impressive on her debut all be it it on the all weather at Wolverhampton. Throw in a well bred winner of Aidan O’Briens in Prettiest and we have some race. Flotus is my main pick with a saver on Cachet. 

FLOTUS 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365         

CACHET 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

 

Ascot 3.05

A disappointing turn out for this year’s renewal of The King Edward Vll Stakes with only 8 going to post and with the top rated only 108 the standard is not set too high. The one to beat has to be William Haggas’s Alenquer who was last seen winning the Sandown Classic Trial by 1/2L in April from none other than this year’s Derby winner Adayar with Yibir who re-opposes here only a neck away in third. He’s a winner in soft ground so will handle any juice in the ground and can take this. Yibir may be the one to chase him home having been gelded since last seen. Title is a good ground Yarmouth maiden winner who will need to step up to take this whilst Aidan O’Brien saddles The Mediterranean who was runner up in a listed contest last time at Leopardstown. 

ALENQUER 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.40

A bumper field of 21 go to post for the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup over 6F for three year olds. A case can be made for plenty with the French raider Suesa coming here unbeaten in 4 outings in her native country on soft ground so the softer the conditions the better for her. Whether stall 8 is a good draw or not is debatable. Campanelle is over from America for Wesley Ward and is 3 from 3 over sprint trips having failed to stay a mile in last season’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, with Dettori in place she can be a big runner. Dragon Symbol is a horse I have a lot of time for and is another with a chance.  My best outsider is the Ken Condon trained Miss Amulet who had some smart juvenile spring form but flopped on her re-appearance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she may not have stayed, back in trip here she looks fair ew value. A wide open contest but I’m going to stick with last year’s form of Campanelle and give Wesley Ward his first 6F winner at the Royal meeting with a small saver on Miss Amulet. 

CAMPANELLE 2 points win@  9/2 Bet365

MISS AMULET ½ point each way @ 25/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345 

 

Ascot 4.20

The Group 1 Coronation Stakes is run over 1m for 3 year old fillies and has attracted a field of 13 runners. Aidan O’Brien saddles two, his Irish 1000 Guineas winner Empress Josephine and English 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth. The latter is the pick of Ryan Moore and followed up her 1000 win by finishing runner up in the French version a fortnight later. She’s the form horse here and the one they all have to beat. Alcohol Free raced on the slower part of the track in the English 1000 Guineas and did well to get to within 2L of Mother Earth and it wouldn’t be a shock to see her get closer although any further rain probably wouldn’t suit her. An interesting runner is the Sir Michael Stoute runner Potapova who will need to step up considerably on her Redcar win and is unproven  on slow ground, she is very exciting mind. The German 1000 Guineas winner Novemba is also of interest as she made all to win comfortably by 7L and although this will be tougher comes here as the highest rated horse in the race and also top on Timeform ratings. She’s drawn still 1 and will surely go forward from there and attempt to make all.  

MOTHER PEARL 3 points win @ 4/1 Paddy Power

 

Ascot 5.00

A maximum field of 30 fillies will hurtle down the straight mile here in the Sandringham Handicap which looks as hard a handicap as I’ve seen all week. Bets should really be kept a minimum here with my shortlist comprising of top weight Friendly of Aidan O’Briens who ran 6th in the Irish 1000 Guineas although his mark of 102 seems rather high. Lucid Dreamer of Roger Charlton’s making his handicap debut off of 90 which looks a workable mark though a stall position of 9 doesn’t excite and Belief a lightly raced Cheveley Park Stud owned filly trained by William Haggas and Star Of Emaraaty who maybe well drawn in stall 2 on the far side and was last seen running 9^th in the 1000 Guineas. A real head scratcher with stakes split small ew on Lucid Dreamer and Star Of Emaraaty. 

LUCID DREAMER ½ point each way @ 22/1William Hill 1/5^th 123456

STAR OF EMARAATY ½ point each way 33/1William Hill 1/5^th 123456

 

Ascot 5.35

Another maximum field of 19 go to post for the 1m 4F Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap run on the round course. The two current favourites Aaddeey and Quickthorn come here in fine form having won impressively last time but both have been re-assessed to the  tune of 13lb. I’m a fan of the former who is trained by the Crisford’s and he should run a big race. Last year’s winner Scarlet Dragon is back for another go from a 4lb higher mark and will appreciate any easing of the ground whilst Ryan Moore is on the same stables Tritonic who we know from his winter hurdling exploits. Yet again a tough handicap but I’ll stick with Aaddeey who is still improving and won’t mind slowish ground. 

AADDEEY 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet365 ¼ 1234

 

Ascot  6.10

The final race of the day is one of the newest handicaps on the card, the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes Handicap. A 5F handicap for three year olds only won last year by the 6/4 fav Art Power. Looking at the races over the minimum trip so far this week it appears that either very high or very low seems the place to be. Warrior Brave is 7lb well in for his 2nd to Atalis Bay at Sandown last weekend and looks sure to run well for The Horsewatchers in first time blinkers. He’s one of best handicapped horses in the field though has a middle draw. Significantly looks an interesting runner from stall 24. Karl Burke’s speedster has bumped into two potential Group horses on his last two starts in Creative Force and Dragon Symbol, has form on all types of ground and can run well. Roger Varian’s Boomshalaa makes his handicap debut winning twice at 6F and is dropping back a furlong here and is well fancied Mo Celina is looking for his 6th win on the spin and he’s one who would appreciate any more rain. A competitive race but I will split my stakes between Significantly and Warrior Brave with slight preference for the former as he appears to be better drawn. 

SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5^th 12345

WARRIOR BRAVE ½ point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5^th 123456

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:

Day 4 of Royal ascot and having missed the majority of the rain the ground was riding good to firm today but once again we have the threat of overnight thunderstorms so there is the realistic possibility of the ground changing overnight. Here my thoughts on the 7 races.

 

Ascot 2.30

The 6F Albany Stakes for 2yo fillies kicks off Day 4 with the possibilty of some dig in the ground. Flotus looked particularly smart when hosing up at Goodwood on her debut 27 days ago. The ground that evening was soft and with Dettori booked must go well for the Crisford’s. She looks the main play to me here although it may also be worth a small investment in the George Boughey trained Cachet who won by 5L on her debut at Newmarket in the style of a decent juvenile. Hello You is the other filly here who was visually impressive on her debut all be it it on the all weather at Wolverhampton. Throw in a well bred winner of Aidan O’Briens in Prettiest and we have some race. Flotus is my main pick with a saver on Cachet. 

FLOTUS 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365         

CACHET 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

 

Ascot 3.05

A disappointing turn out for this year’s renewal of The King Edward Vll Stakes with only 8 going to post and with the top rated only 108 the standard is not set too high. The one to beat has to be William Haggas’s Alenquer who was last seen winning the Sandown Classic Trial by 1/2L in April from none other than this year’s Derby winner Adayar with Yibir who re-opposes here only a neck away in third. He’s a winner in soft ground so will handle any juice in the ground and can take this. Yibir may be the one to chase him home having been gelded since last seen. Title is a good ground Yarmouth maiden winner who will need to step up to take this whilst Aidan O’Brien saddles The Mediterranean who was runner up in a listed contest last time at Leopardstown. 

ALENQUER 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.40

A bumper field of 21 go to post for the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup over 6F for three year olds. A case can be made for plenty with the French raider Suesa coming here unbeaten in 4 outings in her native country on soft ground so the softer the conditions the better for her. Whether stall 8 is a good draw or not is debatable. Campanelle is over from America for Wesley Ward and is 3 from 3 over sprint trips having failed to stay a mile in last season’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, with Dettori in place she can be a big runner. Dragon Symbol is a horse I have a lot of time for and is another with a chance.  My best outsider is the Ken Condon trained Miss Amulet who had some smart juvenile spring form but flopped on her re-appearance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she may not have stayed, back in trip here she looks fair ew value. A wide open contest but I’m going to stick with last year’s form of Campanelle and give Wesley Ward his first 6F winner at the Royal meeting with a small saver on Miss Amulet. 

CAMPANELLE 2 points win@  9/2 Bet365

MISS AMULET ½ point each way @ 25/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345 

 

Ascot 4.20

The Group 1 Coronation Stakes is run over 1m for 3 year old fillies and has attracted a field of 13 runners. Aidan O’Brien saddles two, his Irish 1000 Guineas winner Empress Josephine and English 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth. The latter is the pick of Ryan Moore and followed up her 1000 win by finishing runner up in the French version a fortnight later. She’s the form horse here and the one they all have to beat. Alcohol Free raced on the slower part of the track in the English 1000 Guineas and did well to get to within 2L of Mother Earth and it wouldn’t be a shock to see her get closer although any further rain probably wouldn’t suit her. An interesting runner is the Sir Michael Stoute runner Potapova who will need to step up considerably on her Redcar win and is unproven  on slow ground, she is very exciting mind. The German 1000 Guineas winner Novemba is also of interest as she made all to win comfortably by 7L and although this will be tougher comes here as the highest rated horse in the race and also top on Timeform ratings. She’s drawn still 1 and will surely go forward from there and attempt to make all.  

MOTHER PEARL 3 points win @ 4/1 Paddy Power

 

Ascot 5.00

A maximum field of 30 fillies will hurtle down the straight mile here in the Sandringham Handicap which looks as hard a handicap as I’ve seen all week. Bets should really be kept a minimum here with my shortlist comprising of top weight Friendly of Aidan O’Briens who ran 6th in the Irish 1000 Guineas although his mark of 102 seems rather high. Lucid Dreamer of Roger Charlton’s making his handicap debut off of 90 which looks a workable mark though a stall position of 9 doesn’t excite and Belief a lightly raced Cheveley Park Stud owned filly trained by William Haggas and Star Of Emaraaty who maybe well drawn in stall 2 on the far side and was last seen running 9^th in the 1000 Guineas. A real head scratcher with stakes split small ew on Lucid Dreamer and Star Of Emaraaty. 

LUCID DREAMER ½ point each way @ 22/1William Hill 1/5^th 123456

STAR OF EMARAATY ½ point each way 33/1William Hill 1/5^th 123456

 

Ascot 5.35

Another maximum field of 19 go to post for the 1m 4F Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap run on the round course. The two current favourites Aaddeey and Quickthorn come here in fine form having won impressively last time but both have been re-assessed to the  tune of 13lb. I’m a fan of the former who is trained by the Crisford’s and he should run a big race. Last year’s winner Scarlet Dragon is back for another go from a 4lb higher mark and will appreciate any easing of the ground whilst Ryan Moore is on the same stables Tritonic who we know from his winter hurdling exploits. Yet again a tough handicap but I’ll stick with Aaddeey who is still improving and won’t mind slowish ground. 

AADDEEY 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet365 ¼ 1234

 

Ascot  6.10

The final race of the day is one of the newest handicaps on the card, the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes Handicap. A 5F handicap for three year olds only won last year by the 6/4 fav Art Power. Looking at the races over the minimum trip so far this week it appears that either very high or very low seems the place to be. Warrior Brave is 7lb well in for his 2nd to Atalis Bay at Sandown last weekend and looks sure to run well for The Horsewatchers in first time blinkers. He’s one of best handicapped horses in the field though has a middle draw. Significantly looks an interesting runner from stall 24. Karl Burke’s speedster has bumped into two potential Group horses on his last two starts in Creative Force and Dragon Symbol, has form on all types of ground and can run well. Roger Varian’s Boomshalaa makes his handicap debut winning twice at 6F and is dropping back a furlong here and is well fancied Mo Celina is looking for his 6th win on the spin and he’s one who would appreciate any more rain. A competitive race but I will split my stakes between Significantly and Warrior Brave with slight preference for the former as he appears to be better drawn. 

SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5^th 12345

WARRIOR BRAVE ½ point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5^th 123456

 

 

 

I really fancy lucid dreamer but like you say the track is a nightmare, personally i wish they would leave well alone and stop the watering, if its firm so be it, if its got a good covering of grass would be fine but now if it chucks it down it will be heavier than it should be. We have seen races this week where half the field have had no chance.

[cannotbebeat]

Redcar

1.30 Tiger Beetle 15/8

3.15 Get Funky 3/1

4.25 Lilikoi 5/1

4.55 Albegone 5/2

Royal Ascot

3.05 Tasman Bay 14/1

Goodwood

5.40 Spirit Warning 4/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Goodwood 8.25

THOUSAND OAKS 7/4

[Wanderlust]

Looks like the ground at Ascot will be different today.

I have been watching the radar map on Accuweather. Its been raining non stop since 3am UK time 

The radar only shows present and about 90 minutes ahead. According to the radar the rain will be non stop until at least 7am.

Same for Goodwood and Newmarket. 

Redcar has been dry.

[Wanderlust]

1 hour ago, Wanderlust said:

Looks like the ground at Ascot will be different today.

I have been watching the radar map on Accuweather. Its been raining non stop since 3am UK time 

The radar only shows present and about 90 minutes ahead. According to the radar the rain will be non stop until at least 7am.

Same for Goodwood and Newmarket. 

Redcar has been dry.

Since 3am UK time (maybe before) it has been non stop rain at Ascot, with no sign of it relenting.

There has to be a strong chance of soft ground and unfortunately a slew of non runners.

Backing soft ground horses now means you will no doubt get a better price, but then that will be offset by Rule 4s with the doubtless non runners

[calva decoy]

Ascot races Twitter 3 minutes ago 

" The going is now soft " 

Think Suesa in the 3.40 will be hard to beat.

[Wanderlust]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

Ascot races Twitter 3 minutes ago 

" The going is now soft " 

Think Suesa in the 3.40 will be hard to beat.

It will be heavy by the time racing is on. Non stop rain for at least 6 hours, some of that heavy, with no sign of it stopping

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

2.30 - 1pt win Prettiest @ 7/1

3.05 - 2pts win The Mediterranean @ 9/2

3.40 - 1pt e/w Fivethousandtoone @ 18/1

4.20 - 1pt e/w Fev Rover @ 22/1

5.00 - 1pt e/w Camdeboo @ 20/1

5.35 - 1pt e/w Win O'Clock @ 11/1

6.10 - 1pt e/w Popmaster @ 12/1

 

[black rabbit]

Lipizzaner   3 40  asc    1/2 pt  win  @  50/1 

Ashaari   5  00  asc   1/2  pt  win  @  21  

Win O  Clock   5  35  asc  1/2  pt  win  @  14/1  

 

P/L  +  97.5   pt       another  2nd  yesterday 

[BBBC]

Ascot are now holding an inspection at 12:30

[Offramp]

I've had a right pig's ear of a week. I couldn't pick a winner if I woke up in Stradivarius's stable and spoke to him I'd still find a loser.

Did you see this one:

14:45 at Chelmsford

The Tide Turns at 2/5. Just three horses. This donkey dawdles in 2nd.

My own fault for backing that horse, but it was part of an accy.

I'm hoping that tomorrow will get better.

[Zilzalian]

Not really bothered about the rain/ground i am more bothered about the track bias, in effect there were 13 races yesterday they really do need to stop messing about with the course, like stop the watering a week before the first race, this its ridiculous, As long as there is a good covering of grass there is no need to water there are just as many horses go on GF than any other going. We pick horses that we think will win not horses that we think will do this or that. So today i will do what i did yesterday for the simple reason there are a multitude of excuses for a horse to get beat but only 1 for it to win and that is- it beat the others.

[alancraik]

todays top rated ascot selections



ASCOT 15:05 Yibir 7/1 2 Places e/w

ASCOT 16:20 Mother Earth 4/1 4 Places win

ASCOT 17:35 Scarlet Dragon 12/1 5 Places e/w

plus e/w trixie

[azzybear]

knotty Ash. 12.40 sapphires moon 1.00 once again staying clear of the ascot minefield 

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is

2.30 Asc Flotus 11/4

3.05 Alenquar 2/1

4.20 Pretty Generous 7/2

£1 win trixie = £4 = Poss £92.24 Return

Singles bets

2.30 Hello You £1 win at 7/1

3.05 the Mediteranian £1 win at 11/2

3.40 A Case Of You £1 win at 8/1

4.20 Mother Earth £1 win at 4/1

5.00 Glasga girl £1 win at 18/1

5.35 Zabeel Champion £1 win at 14/1

6.10 Mo Celita £1 win at 11/2

Total stakes £11.00 Howzatt for having fun and minimising stakes in these erratic Royal Ascot times ?

 

Edited June 18, 2021 by The Equaliser

[Zilzalian]

 winner yesterday following the fc weds so speed figures for 230 the Albany

1 sows          120+        33/1

2 hello you    117   aw     7/1

3 sandrine    115+          22/1

3 gypsy lady 115+ aw   66/1

[azzybear]

bally Crystal 2.50 ew should have a good chance at a price 

[roger2256]

June +15 

1pt level stakes win only 

17.35 Asc Favourite Moon 14/1 

17.50 New Pure Bubbles 14/1

Price as of now b365 

Edited June 18, 2021 by roger2256
Addition

[Tedthewolf]

Another tough day small e/w bets for me in the last 3 races at Ascot

5.00 BELIEF 20/1  6places 1/5 bog

5.35 TRITONIC 8/1  5places 1/5 bog

6.10 HAL HALA HALA  50/1 1/4 5places bog

Good Luck All

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

 winner yesterday following the fc weds so speed figures for 230 the Albany

1 sows          120+        33/1

2 hello you    117   aw     7/1

3 sandrine    115+          22/1

3 gypsy lady 115+ aw   66/1

140/1 forecast (365 bog) for this punter.  That's 2fcs and a 14/1 winner this week of my 2yo ratings from 4 races

[cannotbebeat]

Newmarket

5.50 Western Symphony 7/1

7.00 Piselli Molli 15/4

7.30 Divine Magic 7/4

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Brigadier]

23 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Day 4 of Royal ascot and having missed the majority of the rain the ground was riding good to firm today but once again we have the threat of overnight thunderstorms so there is the realistic possibility of the ground changing overnight. Here my thoughts on the 7 races.

 

Ascot 2.30

The 6F Albany Stakes for 2yo fillies kicks off Day 4 with the possibilty of some dig in the ground. Flotus looked particularly smart when hosing up at Goodwood on her debut 27 days ago. The ground that evening was soft and with Dettori booked must go well for the Crisford’s. She looks the main play to me here although it may also be worth a small investment in the George Boughey trained Cachet who won by 5L on her debut at Newmarket in the style of a decent juvenile. Hello You is the other filly here who was visually impressive on her debut all be it it on the all weather at Wolverhampton. Throw in a well bred winner of Aidan O’Briens in Prettiest and we have some race. Flotus is my main pick with a saver on Cachet. 

FLOTUS 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365         

CACHET 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

 

Ascot 3.05

A disappointing turn out for this year’s renewal of The King Edward Vll Stakes with only 8 going to post and with the top rated only 108 the standard is not set too high. The one to beat has to be William Haggas’s Alenquer who was last seen winning the Sandown Classic Trial by 1/2L in April from none other than this year’s Derby winner Adayar with Yibir who re-opposes here only a neck away in third. He’s a winner in soft ground so will handle any juice in the ground and can take this. Yibir may be the one to chase him home having been gelded since last seen. Title is a good ground Yarmouth maiden winner who will need to step up to take this whilst Aidan O’Brien saddles The Mediterranean who was runner up in a listed contest last time at Leopardstown. 

ALENQUER 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.40

A bumper field of 21 go to post for the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup over 6F for three year olds. A case can be made for plenty with the French raider Suesa coming here unbeaten in 4 outings in her native country on soft ground so the softer the conditions the better for her. Whether stall 8 is a good draw or not is debatable. Campanelle is over from America for Wesley Ward and is 3 from 3 over sprint trips having failed to stay a mile in last season’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, with Dettori in place she can be a big runner. Dragon Symbol is a horse I have a lot of time for and is another with a chance.  My best outsider is the Ken Condon trained Miss Amulet who had some smart juvenile spring form but flopped on her re-appearance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she may not have stayed, back in trip here she looks fair ew value. A wide open contest but I’m going to stick with last year’s form of Campanelle and give Wesley Ward his first 6F winner at the Royal meeting with a small saver on Miss Amulet. 

CAMPANELLE 2 points win@  9/2 Bet365

MISS AMULET ½ point each way @ 25/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345 

 

Ascot 4.20

The Group 1 Coronation Stakes is run over 1m for 3 year old fillies and has attracted a field of 13 runners. Aidan O’Brien saddles two, his Irish 1000 Guineas winner Empress Josephine and English 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth. The latter is the pick of Ryan Moore and followed up her 1000 win by finishing runner up in the French version a fortnight later. She’s the form horse here and the one they all have to beat. Alcohol Free raced on the slower part of the track in the English 1000 Guineas and did well to get to within 2L of Mother Earth and it wouldn’t be a shock to see her get closer although any further rain probably wouldn’t suit her. An interesting runner is the Sir Michael Stoute runner Potapova who will need to step up considerably on her Redcar win and is unproven  on slow ground, she is very exciting mind. The German 1000 Guineas winner Novemba is also of interest as she made all to win comfortably by 7L and although this will be tougher comes here as the highest rated horse in the race and also top on Timeform ratings. She’s drawn still 1 and will surely go forward from there and attempt to make all.  

MOTHER PEARL 3 points win @ 4/1 Paddy Power

 

Ascot 5.00

A maximum field of 30 fillies will hurtle down the straight mile here in the Sandringham Handicap which looks as hard a handicap as I’ve seen all week. Bets should really be kept a minimum here with my shortlist comprising of top weight Friendly of Aidan O’Briens who ran 6th in the Irish 1000 Guineas although his mark of 102 seems rather high. Lucid Dreamer of Roger Charlton’s making his handicap debut off of 90 which looks a workable mark though a stall position of 9 doesn’t excite and Belief a lightly raced Cheveley Park Stud owned filly trained by William Haggas and Star Of Emaraaty who maybe well drawn in stall 2 on the far side and was last seen running 9^th in the 1000 Guineas. A real head scratcher with stakes split small ew on Lucid Dreamer and Star Of Emaraaty. 

LUCID DREAMER ½ point each way @ 22/1William Hill 1/5^th 123456

STAR OF EMARAATY ½ point each way 33/1William Hill 1/5^th 123456

 

Ascot 5.35

Another maximum field of 19 go to post for the 1m 4F Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap run on the round course. The two current favourites Aaddeey and Quickthorn come here in fine form having won impressively last time but both have been re-assessed to the  tune of 13lb. I’m a fan of the former who is trained by the Crisford’s and he should run a big race. Last year’s winner Scarlet Dragon is back for another go from a 4lb higher mark and will appreciate any easing of the ground whilst Ryan Moore is on the same stables Tritonic who we know from his winter hurdling exploits. Yet again a tough handicap but I’ll stick with Aaddeey who is still improving and won’t mind slowish ground. 

AADDEEY 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet365 ¼ 1234

 

Ascot  6.10

The final race of the day is one of the newest handicaps on the card, the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes Handicap. A 5F handicap for three year olds only won last year by the 6/4 fav Art Power. Looking at the races over the minimum trip so far this week it appears that either very high or very low seems the place to be. Warrior Brave is 7lb well in for his 2nd to Atalis Bay at Sandown last weekend and looks sure to run well for The Horsewatchers in first time blinkers. He’s one of best handicapped horses in the field though has a middle draw. Significantly looks an interesting runner from stall 24. Karl Burke’s speedster has bumped into two potential Group horses on his last two starts in Creative Force and Dragon Symbol, has form on all types of ground and can run well. Roger Varian’s Boomshalaa makes his handicap debut winning twice at 6F and is dropping back a furlong here and is well fancied Mo Celina is looking for his 6th win on the spin and he’s one who would appreciate any more rain. A competitive race but I will split my stakes between Significantly and Warrior Brave with slight preference for the former as he appears to be better drawn. 

SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5^th 12345

WARRIOR BRAVE ½ point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5^th 123456

 

 

 

3 winners on the day and a profit of 14.6 points. Saturdays selections just been submitted.

[MCLARKE]

8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

140/1 forecast (365 bog) for this punter.  That's 2fcs and a 14/1 winner this week of my 2yo ratings from 4 races

Excellent results. I might have a go at producing some speed figures myself, any tips ?

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is

2.30 Asc Flotus 11/4

3.05 Alenquar 2/1

4.20 Pretty Generous 7/2

£1 win trixie = £4 = Poss £92.24 Return

Singles bets

2.30 Hello You £1 win at 7/1

3.05 the Mediteranian £1 win at 11/2

3.40 A Case Of You £1 win at 8/1

4.20 Mother Earth £1 win at 4/1

5.00 Glasga girl £1 win at 18/1

5.35 Zabeel Champion £1 win at 14/1

6.10 Mo Celita £1 win at 11/2

Total stakes £11.00 Howzatt for having fun and minimising stakes in these erratic Royal Ascot times ?

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Only two favourites won and I had only one in the Trixie.  Not too bad, losing £11 for an afternoon's entertainment.  Many of these results are shocking this week and it's not just down to the bad weather today.  Horses beating other horses that that were well beaten by their challengers before on previous occasions.  It's almost as if one would have done better using a pin to make selections rather than going by form.  I think that the jockeys too have behaved badly such as Silvestre De Susa on Queen Power on Wednesday.  I backed the horse expecting it to be ridden prominently and lead most of the way and see off Lady Bowethorpe, however, it was slowly away and got going too late to have any chance of winning.  Don't know if that is the jockey's fault or the horse?  Very strange bits of riding from many of the jockeys this week at Ascot imo.

Anyway £11 loss means a new balance of £810.43 (Bank £1056.22)

I might do the same tomorrow.  i.e. only bet a small sum on Ascot.  I'm not sure what is worse, the time and effort spent on finding losers or the money that I lose.  I rather favour resenting wasted time and effort.  I'm not going to spend too much time or money on selections in the future unless I can turn this around somehow.

 

 

[Zilzalian]

29 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Excellent results. I might have a go at producing some speed figures myself, any tips ?

you need at least 20hrs (more in september/october) a week thats just to keep track of the 2yos, not many shortcuts im afraid, those 2yo figures are then good for when they get to 3yo, still interested? u can do them race by race but that takes up most of the evening before the day they run. im retired now so have time, the couple of years i did them when i was working i was mentally knackered, those  years i had dr devious 20/1 (derby) rodrigo de triano 2000 guineas 6/1 and marling at 50/1 who was the moral winner of the 1000 guineas (french horse got away with a stewards enquiry). jet ski lady 50/1 moonax at 66/1 st leger among many other winners, even my top rated handicapper won a group 2 at 25/1 but it really was hard work. and because u have to put the work in you really do have to do 3 x singles, 6x fc's and allways tc's it would be foolish not to. but small stakes produce big results so you dont need much on. as u can see i have over 300 points profit this week, so a good week, i have had bad weeks but never expensive ones due to the reasonable stakes. i cut the loses down by not using them for hcaps just listed and group races.

[fd1972uk]

Just a couple on Flotus and Empress Josephine, nowhere. 

Had Ballyhome on a small treble, however other 2 were at goodwood. 

Edited June 19, 2021 by fd1972uk

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

you need at least 20hrs (more in september/october) a week thats just to keep track of the 2yos, not many shortcuts im afraid, those 2yo figures are then good for when they get to 3yo, still interested? u can do them race by race but that takes up most of the evening before the day they run. im retired now so have time, the couple of years i did them when i was working i was mentally knackered, those  years i had dr devious 20/1 (derby) rodrigo de triano 2000 guineas 6/1 and marling at 50/1 who was the moral winner of the 1000 guineas (french horse got away with a stewards enquiry). jet ski lady 50/1 moonax at 66/1 st leger among many other winners, even my top rated handicapper won a group 2 at 25/1 but it really was hard work. and because u have to put the work in you really do have to do 3 x singles, 6x fc's and allways tc's it would be foolish not to. but small stakes produce big results so you dont need much on. as u can see i have over 300 points profit this week, so a good week, i have had bad weeks but never expensive ones due to the reasonable stakes. i cut the loses down by not using them for hcaps just listed and group races.

Thanks.

I'm also retired but already probably spend too much time on the horses. I'll have a go but will try some short cuts.

Is there any particular type of ground that produces more reliable speed figures?

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Thanks.

I'm also retired but already probably spend too much time on the horses. I'll have a go but will try some short cuts.

Is there any particular type of ground that produces more reliable speed figures?

well you have to take a position, mine which has worked well is that G and GF is the standard, i dont differentiate after that the highest figure is the highest figure irrespective of going based on the assumption its the same for all the horses, ascot probably proves this point, in truth the more you over think it the more you end up kicking yourself i dont usually include favs in my betting and didnt today even tho point lonsdale was my top rated there wasnt really enough data to be definitive so left the win alone and just did a small fc and tc bet which failed but that wasnt overthinking that was/is my strategy the returns dont justify the outlay over a season sounds odd i know but it works for me. when i have a little more time i will pm you a pretty useful use of race times on the assumption you will keep it to yourself and not publish.