Premier League Ante Post Predictions 2021/22

[StevieDay1983]

The 2021/22 Premier League fixtures have been officially announced today so it's a good time to open up the traditional ante post thread where we can all put our pre-season predictions down and then look back at the end of the season to see how wrong or right we were! Manchester City have been installed as the heavy title favourites with Chelsea, Manchester United, and Liverpool their closest rivals.

There is then a big gap to the chasing pack with the bookies not seeing a lot between Tottenham, Leicester, and Arsenal. It's interesting to see that the bookies have also put Newcastle down with newly promoted trio Watford, Brentford, and Norwich. Amazing that Norwich, despite winning the Championship with relative ease last season are rated at almost twice as long as play-off winners Brentford.

What are your predictions for this upcoming season?

[yossa6133]

On 6/16/2021 at 9:51 AM, StevieDay1983 said:

mazing that Norwich, despite winning the Championship with relative ease last season are rated at almost twice as long as play-off winners Brentford.

I noticed that, bit weird. Wonder if there will be a match bet between the two, as I'd fancy Norwich to finish higher.

[StevieDay1983]

19 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

I noticed that, bit weird. Wonder if there will be a match bet between the two, as I'd fancy Norwich to finish higher.

Especially because Norwich have kept Daniel Farke who has Premier League experience. Granted, Brentford might be able to draw better quality players but Fulham were in a similar situation and it didn't work out for them... twice.

[harry_rag]

On 7/8/2021 at 2:58 PM, yossa6133 said:

I noticed that, bit weird. Wonder if there will be a match bet between the two, as I'd fancy Norwich to finish higher.

I suspect any match bet would probably be odds on for both teams, you might get evens Norwich at a push. Odds against for either team might offer a bit of value. While Norwich are 1500/1 in a couple of places, both teams are easy to back at 1000/1. The spread firms pretty much have both in for 36 or 37 points.

SX are up with their player goals/assists spreads, hopefully @waynecoyne might find something of interest there. I had a quick look at the Burnley player goals spreads where Wood is rightfully favourite at 9.5-11. I wondered if someone else might be value e.g. Barnes at 6.5 or Rodriguez at 5.5 but no-one else scored more than 3 in the league last season. Both of those 2 have scored in pre-season friendlies but Wood is at the Olympics and Vydra has had a break post-Euros. Vydra was the favoured partner for Woods at the end of last season but there's no quote for him. Might be of interest at a 5.5 or 6.5 line on spreads or fixed odds.

Last season I lost a bet on Havertz scoring 10+ goals at odds of 6/5. He didn't have the best debut season and I expect better this time. Might be a bet at a similar line and odds (SX quote him at 9.5-10.5).

I'm not much of a one for season long bets but I might have one or two if any appeal. Will have a trawl over the coming days.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

I suspect any match bet would probably be odds on for both teams, you might get evens Norwich at a push.

Saw it at odds on both in a couple of places. More firms offering top promoted team. Anyone not too keen on Brentford night like Norwich at 11/4 with 365 or Watford 23/10 with PP.

A few firms offering a most assists market with the favourite as short as 7/4 and as long as 6/1. Might be worth a peruse.

[harry_rag]

55 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

A few firms offering a most assists market with the favourite as short as 7/4 and as long as 6/1. Might be worth a peruse.

A few bets from that market for an interest.

12 points on De Bruyne at 6/1 Hills

5 points on Fernandes at 10/1 Sky Bet

1.5 points on Raphina at 33/1 Sky Bet

1 point on Ziyech at 80/1 Hills (or Sky Bet)

I've looked at actual assists gained, actual assists per 90 minutes played and expected assists per 90 minutes played. It remains to be seen how much value the "xA" data has but it should strip out some of the pure luck element (e.g. 3 players could all have "deserved" the same number of assists according to that data, one might have hit the mark, one exceeded it and one fallen short.) Thoughts on each.

De Bruyne - joint second for actual assists on 12 (with Fernandes) played less games and is clear top on the per 90 minutes data and joint top (again with Fernandes) on the xA numbers. I'm confident that 6/1 is too big a price for him, with fitness concerns the biggest threat to getting a run for your money. 7/4 and 3/1 elsewhere.

Fernandes - As per the above, on a par with De Bruyne for actual and expected assists, only 5th on the per 90 minutes stat but no reason to think he'll get less game time (fitness permitting). 5s and 8s elsewhere, I wouldn't take less than the 10/1.

The other 2 are obviously more speculative but that's reflected in the staking. Both look ok on the expected stats, Ziyech is backed with some regards to his figures for Ajax. Hopefully he gets a better actual return in his 2nd season for Chelsea.

 

[waynecoyne]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I suspect any match bet would probably be odds on for both teams, you might get evens Norwich at a push. Odds against for either team might offer a bit of value. While Norwich are 1500/1 in a couple of places, both teams are easy to back at 1000/1. The spread firms pretty much have both in for 36 or 37 points.

SX are up with their player goals/assists spreads, hopefully @waynecoyne might find something of interest there. I had a quick look at the Burnley player goals spreads where Wood is rightfully favourite at 9.5-11. I wondered if someone else might be value e.g. Barnes at 6.5 or Rodriguez at 5.5 but no-one else scored more than 3 in the league last season. Both of those 2 have scored in pre-season friendlies but Wood is at the Olympics and Vydra has had a break post-Euros. Vydra was the favoured partner for Woods at the end of last season but there's no quote for him. Might be of interest at a 5.5 or 6.5 line on spreads or fixed odds.

Last season I lost a bet on Havertz scoring 10+ goals at odds of 6/5. He didn't have the best debut season and I expect better this time. Might be a bet at a similar line and odds (SX quote him at 9.5-10.5).

I'm not much of a one for season long bets but I might have one or two if any appeal. Will have a trawl over the coming days.

hi @harry_rag

just had a quick look josh dasilva a possible buy at 3.5 for brentford

kieran tierney 1.3 to buy for arsenal if playing wing back, (rather than centre back in a three) would be of interest

[harry_rag]

If Grealish signs for Man City it may take some of the edge of that KDB 6/1 most assists! Also might make the 16/1 for Jack look appealing.

[Mindfulness]

On 7/31/2021 at 7:40 PM, harry_rag said:

If Grealish signs for Man City it may take some of the edge of that KDB 6/1 most assists! Also might make the 16/1 for Jack look appealing.

Maybe not panic stations yet @harry_rag, let's not forget that Grealish draws a huge amount of fouls (I think he was most fouled person in EPL for 2020/2021). De Bruyne should still remain first choice set-piece taker for City so if anything Grealish may help to supply KDB with more assists by winning loads of free-kicks.

[harry_rag]

I like your glass half full outlook on that @Mindfulness 

KDB into 4s best now, Grealish still 16s with Sky Bet. Maybe the Hills odds compilers are thinking like you in trimming Kev's price, or maybe it's just the sheer weight of my money causing a bit of panic! 

[Mindfulness]

19 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

KDB into 4s best now, Grealish still 16s with Sky Bet. Maybe the Hills odds compilers are thinking like you in trimming Kev's price, or maybe it's just the sheer weight of my money causing a bit of panic! 

Haha possibly, I do think that most assists for De Bruyne at 7.00 and Fernandes at 11.00 was a good dutch at those prices. Not sure about KDB at 4s though as the added value may have gone now.

Sometimes you have to stay disciplined and not become overzealous in a market. We could end up backing all kinds of players in the assists market if we're not careful with a whiff of transfer rumour here or a snifter of set-piece training drone footage there but really I think your original selections were sound.

PS Don't kill me if Grealish gets most EPL assists this season

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

Sometimes you have to stay disciplined and not become overzealous in a market.

Very true generally and, for me, specifically in antepost markets (I don't like to have too many season long bets) and specifically when it comes to backing assists (it's my worst betting market this year so far). Unless something exceptional is flagged I'll settle for the current bets.

One other player worth a mention is Sancho who could steal some of Fernandes chances at Man U. He was 14/1.

On the spreads, Mbeumo and Toney could be cheap at 3.5 and 3 for Brentford. Both got 10 assists last season (according to Soccerway) and it may not be beyond them to combine for 7 this season. Probably not too much upside given the higher level they'll be playing at but not much downside for anyone who fancied an interest in Brentford's season.

[waynecoyne]

i'm going to try a relegation treble again

i got this wrong last year by selecting villa instead of sheffield united

The four obvious candidates to me (and four shortest in the betting)

are watford norwich brentford and crystal palace. Patrick Vieira was obviously a top class player but that might not translate into management.

He had a spell in the USA and then for Nice, where he was sacked after a 5 game losing run. He does not come across as particularly insightful in his tv appearances

and i think he will take Palace down. I'll add watford (who look the weakest) and Norwich on the basis that Brentford may just surprise people but this is probably a coin toss.

Relegation Treble

watford, norwich, palace 25/1 skybet

[harry_rag]

A couple of things to mention ahead of the first weekend. The RP previews are now free to view online if anyone wants a scan. Didn't bother buying the paper this year.

https://www.racingpost.com/sport/

Also, Hills have got an offer if you bet £10 win (or £5 e/w) on the outright market, you get a £2 free bet whenever Kane, Fernandes, Salah or Sterling score during August. With 3 rounds scheduled during August that's not a bad offer if you fancy a bet on the outright market and bet with Hills. I've stuck 10 points on Chelsea at 5/1. Hopefully that comes close to paying for itself in freebies that will be used on bets I'd have had anyway!

[harry_rag]

On 8/2/2021 at 4:02 PM, harry_rag said:

On the spreads, Mbeumo and Toney could be cheap at 3.5 and 3 for Brentford. Both got 10 assists last season (according to Soccerway) and it may not be beyond them to combine for 7 this season. Probably not too much upside given the higher level they'll be playing at but not much downside for anyone who fancied an interest in Brentford's season.

7 and 5 respectively according to Whoscored so would've made for a decent buy had I or anyone else put any money down. As for my actual bets, total wipeout. I think we all need to polish our crystal balls before the start of next season! 

The bookies were certainly right in their assessment of Brentford as the strongest promoted team.