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Racing Chat - Tuesday June 15th


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Royal Ascot 2021 should be more atmospheric than last year’s renewal with 12,000 in attendance and with dry weather likely the ground for Day one will ride pretty fast.Here’s my thoughts on the first day:- 

Ascot 230 

The week’s banker Palace Pier kicks the 2021 Royal meeting off and he will be incredibly hard to beat. The one nagging doubt that lingers with me is the fact that he has yet to run on very fast ground. No doubt he’ll probably win for Messr’s Gosden and  Dettori as his odds suggest but from a punting angle I’m happy to look elsewhere and take one at an each way price. One horse who will relish the slick ground is the James Tate trained Top Rank. A progressive 5 year old who is only racing in his 10th race today may still be on the upgrade. He was a 7L 3rd in the Lockinge to Palace Pier last time with the likes of Lope Y Fernandez, Pogo and Lord Glitters behind and will appreciate the much faster surface today. PJ McDonald knows him well as his regular pilot and he can hit the frame and is also maybe worth an each way bet in the ‘without the fav’ market. 

TOP RANK 1 point each way @ 16/1 BetVictor 1/5 123

                    1 point each way @ 5/1 Bet365 (without Palace Pier) 1/5 123

 

Ascot 305 

A wide open renewal of the Coventry Stakes with Wesley Ward throwing in the googly by declaring his smart filly Kaufymaker. She looked good on her only run in America over 4 1/2F but the trainer has yet to have a winner at the Royal meeting over 6F and with her cramped odds is overlooked here. Dhabab is the one that takes my eye. He impressed me when winning at Leicester a fortnight ago in the style of a decent animal and his trainer John Gosden won this event with the smart Calyx three years ago. There are many others with chances with honourable mentions going to Ebro River (though he has looked a bit quirky) and Gisburn (though his impressive Newbury win was gained on good to soft ground). 

DHABAB 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet365 1/5th odds 1234

 

Ascot 340 

Charlie Hills stable star is one of the fastest horse we’ve seen in a while and although he has a 298 day absence to overcome and has had a few issues he’s taken to win on his seasonal debut just like he did last season. He’s 7 years old now but that doesn’t appear to stop these old sprinters and on official figures is 8lb and upwards ahead of his rivals here, meaning he could even run below par and still take this with his blistering pace. Second favourite is Winter Power who blitzed her field at York in May with the runner up Atalis Bay boosting the form by winning at Sandown over the weekend. American runner Extravagant Kid has the services of Frankie Dettori and is the unknown one in the race but it’s all about Battaash for me and I’m hoping he takes a walk in the market and drifts out to a decent price. 

BATAASH 2 point win @ 9/4 BetVictor

 

Ascot 420 

Charlie Appleby has been in irresistible form this season, winning the Derby with Adayar and can take the Group 1 St James Palace with his Dubawi colt who has been working extremely well at home since his 2nd to the re-opposing Mostadhaf at Sandown in the Heron Stakes. He Was giving John Gosden’s unbeaten colt 3lb that night and also raced on the slower part of the track. Today’s better ground will be much more in his favour and under William Buick should run a big race. The only negative fact is that he is drawn 12 of 13 which is not ideal but no doubt the wily Buick will have a plan. The aforementioned Mostadhaf looks a threat along with Poetic Flare who is running in his fourth Group one contest in 43 days. Ryan Moore has chosen Battleground of the 3 Aidan O’Brien runners but he has to put a shocking effort in our 2000 Guineas behind him. Maximal looks an interesting outsider and is worth a cover bet. 

HIGHLAND AVENUE 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234

MAXIMAL ½ point each way @ 25/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 500 

Willie Mullins has farmed this 2m 4F handicap over the past 10 years winning 4 of them, three with Ryan Moore in the saddle so the first place to look at has to be their runner M C Muldoon who comes here on the back of a hurdling campaign. Previously trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam he has never raced beyond 10F on the level and win or lose looks poor value at around the 4/1 to my eyes. Mullins also saddles Royal Illusion and Rayapour who also holds chances of sorts. My two against the field however are both 100% certain to stay this marathon trip. Last year’ winner Coeur De Lion from the dual purpose stable of Alan King is only 3lb higher this year and Just Hubert who won the 2m 5F Goodwood handicap last Summer for the racing partnership of William Muir and Chris Grassick. Preference would just be for the former although I will be having a saver on Just Hubert. 

COEUR DE LION 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 ¼ odds 1234

JUST HUBERT ½ point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 ¼ odds 1234

 

Ascot 535 

The Wolferton Stakes is a listed race run over 10F and has attracted 13 runners in the absence of mudlark Stormy Antarctic. It has an open look about it with Patrick Sarsfield, Solid Stone and Felix among the market leaders. All have some sort of chance but I’ll take a chance each way on the David Menuisier trained Blue Cup who came from way back under a masterful Oisin Murphy ride to win a grade 2 handicap at Epsom earlier in the month. He can be a bit quirky and lost his previous race at York by getting over excited before the race. William Buick takes over from Murphy here and looks decent each way value. 

BLUE CUP 1 point each way @ 15/2 BetVictor 1/5th odds 1234

 

Ascot 610 

Day one concludes with the 1m 6F Copper  Horse Stakes Handicap which has a short priced favourite in the Willie Mullins trained, Ryan Moore ridden Saldier. A decent hurdler he won well on the level at Listowel earlier in the month and despite a big weight here could be well handicapped. Very fast ground though may not be ideal and he’s also a short enough price so I’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet. Global Storm is my idea of the winner and at just around an each way price can take this. A winner over this trip at Newmarket in May he’s been raised 4lb for that and apparently is working very well at Newmarket. Charlie Appleby trains and that man William Buick rides. I acn pass on a tip for the Roger Varian runner Gold Maze and hes worth a small saver bet. . 

GLOBAL STORM 1 ½ points each way @ 9/2 William Hills 1/5 odds 12345

GOLD MAZE 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 Bet365 1/4 1234

 

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Royal Ascot 3-05

The Acropolis is Aidan OBrien's sole reprasentative in this seventeen strong field.The master of Ballydoyle has won this race seven times in the last twenty years including with the likes of Arizona, Carravagio, War Command, Power and Landseer. It is clearly a race he targets especially with those juveniles who have won for the yard on their previous start. The Acropolis improved significantly from his debut to record a relatively easy win over Thunder Eclipse at Listowel just a few weeks ago. He travelled comfortably throughout the race and answered every question that Wayne Lordan put to him.

Natural progression is likely and this stoutly bred son of Churchill is now partnered by Ryan Moore. He bids to win the race for an incredible fourth time for Ballydoyle inside the last decade. The yard will be in buoyant mood having won with two of their last three runners over the weekend, showing the well-being of the string. The trip and ground ought to pose little in the way of an inconvenience and this three-year-old commands respect.

3-40 Royal Ascot

The slick performance of Winter Power at York last time caught the eyes of many. As a three-year-old filly she gets weight from all of her rivals as she bids to emulate the likes of Lady Aurelia and Dominica who also won with similar favourable conditions. The speedily bred daughter of Bungleinthejungle likes to sit handy or set the pace and Ascot is a track that lends itself well to runners with that particular running style. Silvestre De Sousa has partnered her to three of her five career wins and no surprise if they hold all the aces here. It would be some performance from Battaash if he were to win this on his seasonal debut. He has gone well fresh in the past, but he is now a seven-year-old and he may find Tim Easterby's filly a tougher nut to crack.

4-20 Royal Ascot

Poetic Flare will think he has just returned from his holidays having not had a race in three weeks. The 2000 Guineas winner went on to contest the Poule D'Essai at Longchamp and then the Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh with a six day gap in between. He was unfortunate to find only his stablemate Mac Swiney a short head too strong in the latter. Poetic Flare is a talented son of Dawn Approach who won this for the same connections back in 2013. The classic winner sets the standard here and can confirm recent form with Lucky Vega. Unlike a few of these runners, he is at least proven at this level. He acts on good to firm surfaces and should go extremely close.

5-00 Royal Ascot

Just Hubert represents an in form stable at the moment and was far from disgraced when third to Frankenstella on his seasonal reappearance. He was doing all of his best work in the closing stages in that two miler at Haydock last time. A return to this better ground is likely to suit the William Muir and Chris Grassick trained five-year-old. He won over two-and-a-half miles at Goodwood in a Class 2 handicap last year, so he certainly has the stamina reserves to see out this marathon. Danny Tudhope keeps the ride and they look to have solid each way claims here.

5-35 Royal Ascot

Forest Of Dean has proven himself at Group Three level in the past and this race should be well within his scope. He ought to be more than capable of olaying a leading role here. Frankie Dettori is a notable jockey booking for Team Gosden as they bid to repeat their win in this race having won it with Monarchs Glen back in 2018. Good ground suits this son of Iffraaj and he is fully effective at the trip. Frankie bids to enhance his 100% strike rate on the gelding having won on him at York on the Knavesmire last summer. They have to be rate as dangers to all here.

6-10 Royal Ascot

It is exceedingly difficult to ignore the claims of Saldier in the finale as he remains fully unexposed on the flat. He gained a morale boosting win in this sphere when hacking up under a seven pound claimer at Listowel just nine days ago. Whilst any rain would only boost his chances, the eye-catching booking of Ryan Moore is a massive plus for the seven-year-old. Many of these runners have shown their true colours well before now, but Saldier is very much an unknown quantity on the level. If he progresses again from that recent start, he could well catch a few of these off guard.

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8 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

May look tomorrow but just used PP free bet and another horse free bet I had for the 2.30 at Ascot. 

Probably should have done e/w but went win with Regal Reality at 16/1 and Order of Australia at 6/1.

Bet365 gave me a free £5 bet in which I went £2.50 each way on HIGHLAND AVENUE in the 4.20 @ 8/1 .

Buicks choice of the Godolphin runners , has won 3 & been 2nd twice from 5 career starts albeit probably the toughest race on the day to call where I reckon 7/8 could win.

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I'm out for most of the day today but will try to look for some proper bets later on for the evening flat meetings.

Meanwhile, so as to join in the Royal Ascot fun I have selected and backed the following horses for fun

3.05 Ebro River (JD) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46

3.40 Winter Power (SDS) £2 win at 6.52 = £10.81 if win

4.20 Battleground (RM) £2 win at 7.0 = £11.76 if win

5.00 Postileo (AA) £2 win at 18.5 = £34.30 if win

5.35 Patrick Sarsfield (TM) £2 win at 5.6 = £10.14 if win

6.10 Global Storm (WB) £2 win at 6.4 = £10.58 if win

A feast of entertainment for just £12 🤣

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All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

Have a good one folks...

2.30 Ascot - Regal Reality @ 20/1

Palace Pier is clearly the most likely winner but I'm surprised at the price of Regal Reality. He's 4th in here on official ratings and has done little wrong in recent seasons. Ran well fresh at the meeting last year which alleviates some concerns about the absence this season and a strongly-run mile is ideal for him. Split Kameko and Benbatl when he was last seen - form which would see him in the mix here - and I think has solid claims of making the frame at a price.

3.05 Ascot - Berkshire Shadow @ 12/1

Wide open race in reality but I was taken by the performance of Berkshire Shadow on debut at Newbury - blew the start, giving his main rivals a 4 or 5 length head start over the minimum trip but still showed a good turn of foot to get on top late in the day. The fact he went off at 9/2 yet hit 70/1 in running tells you a lot about its winning effort and although some horses haven't franked the form, he had the second favourite for this race in behind him that day. 6f shouldn't be an issue on that evidence and clearly has some tactical speed so looks a lively contender. 

3.40 Ascot - Stone of Destiny @ 20/1

Has a mountain to climb on figures but I'm not overly strong on any of those at the head of the market and this looks like it's going to be run at an insane gallop with an abundance of blastaway types in the field. Whilst the competition may be too much for this one, the way the race is run might just help him raise his game as he'll thrive coming off an all out pace. Has been an eyecatcher on just about all of its runs this season, goes well here and could run on late in the day to make the frame.

4.20 Ascot - La Barrosa @ 20/1

This horse has been weak in the market but I'm not entirely sure why. He's twice been beaten on soft ground but his dam didn't like the surface either and it's hard to knock his form otherwise. Won pretty impressively on his first two starts before failing on bottomless ground in France but bounced back to be narrowly denied by Master of the Seas at Newmarket on seasonal reappearance. The pair were 3 lengths clear and the winner was short headed out of the 2000 Guineas next time out. On that evidence, there's little between Poetic Flare and La Barrosa (for all the former finished ahead on deep ground in Ireland) on their runs on decent ground so with one at 4/1 and the other 20s, I'll happily put some faith in La Barrosa back on this surface.

5.00 Ascot - Solo Saxophone @ 33/1

There's no getting away from the fact that this horse is slow but the extra four furlongs here really ought to suit and he should be staying on at the finish. Could never get involved over 2 miles last time on decent ground (probably needs slow ground over that trip) but was plugging on past beaten horses and should be fully fit now. The ground may not be ideal but stamina will be drawn out even more today and he remains on a decent enough mark on last year's excellent form and just looks an interesting outsider.

5.35 Ascot - Juan Elcano @ 20/1

Usually runs his race without winning in decent company but this would be one of its less demanding assignments and could improve for wind surgery. Ran a bit fresh on his seasonal reappearance in the Doncaster Mile but still wasn't beaten that far by Top Rank and bits and pieces of his form from last season would give him solid hopes here. Did best of those on the pace at this meeting last year and if settling a bit better today back at 1m2f, I think he's likely to run his race and potentially make the frame.

6.10 Ascot - Hochfeld @ 25/1

Typical Mark Johnston type who can throw in the odd stinker but most of those (including last time out) have come on soft ground and I'm prepared to give him the chance to bounce back on a sounder surface here. Was previously in good form and will relish an end-to-end gallop under these conditions. Is well drawn in stall 5 to get a decent position and whilst he doesn't hold anything from the handicapper, is weighted to be bang there if on a going day and looks a big price if forgiving him his last run. 

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Ascot

2.30 sir busker 20/1 1pt ew 

3.05 the organisor 22/1 1pt ew (6 places)

4.20 chindit 5/1 1pt win and Thunder moon 17/2 1pt ew (5 places)

5. Lostwithiel 16/1 1pt ew (7 places)

5.35 patrick sarsfield 5/1 2pt win

Beverley 7.10 kylie rules 100/30 3pt win

14 pts staked- all extra places with sky bet so wont be counting BOG on those selections, all others with bet 365

Good luck 🤙 

 

Edited by Ironjoe
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On 6/14/2021 at 5:51 PM, The Brigadier said:

Royal Ascot 2021 should be more atmospheric than last year’s renewal with 12,000 in attendance and with dry weather likely the ground for Day one will ride pretty fast.Here’s my thoughts on the first day:- 

Ascot 230 

The week’s banker Palace Pier kicks the 2021 Royal meeting off and he will be incredibly hard to beat. The one nagging doubt that lingers with me is the fact that he has yet to run on very fast ground. No doubt he’ll probably win for Messr’s Gosden and  Dettori as his odds suggest but from a punting angle I’m happy to look elsewhere and take one at an each way price. One horse who will relish the slick ground is the James Tate trained Top Rank. A progressive 5 year old who is only racing in his 10th race today may still be on the upgrade. He was a 7L 3rd in the Lockinge to Palace Pier last time with the likes of Lope Y Fernandez, Pogo and Lord Glitters behind and will appreciate the much faster surface today. PJ McDonald knows him well as his regular pilot and he can hit the frame and is also maybe worth an each way bet in the ‘without the fav’ market. 

TOP RANK 1 point each way @ 16/1 BetVictor 1/5 123

                    1 point each way @ 5/1 Bet365 (without Palace Pier) 1/5 123

 

Ascot 305 

A wide open renewal of the Coventry Stakes with Wesley Ward throwing in the googly by declaring his smart filly Kaufymaker. She looked good on her only run in America over 4 1/2F but the trainer has yet to have a winner at the Royal meeting over 6F and with her cramped odds is overlooked here. Dhabab is the one that takes my eye. He impressed me when winning at Leicester a fortnight ago in the style of a decent animal and his trainer John Gosden won this event with the smart Calyx three years ago. There are many others with chances with honourable mentions going to Ebro River (though he has looked a bit quirky) and Gisburn (though his impressive Newbury win was gained on good to soft ground). 

DHABAB 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet365 1/5th odds 1234

 

Ascot 340 

Charlie Hills stable star is one of the fastest horse we’ve seen in a while and although he has a 298 day absence to overcome and has had a few issues he’s taken to win on his seasonal debut just like he did last season. He’s 7 years old now but that doesn’t appear to stop these old sprinters and on official figures is 8lb and upwards ahead of his rivals here, meaning he could even run below par and still take this with his blistering pace. Second favourite is Winter Power who blitzed her field at York in May with the runner up Atalis Bay boosting the form by winning at Sandown over the weekend. American runner Extravagant Kid has the services of Frankie Dettori and is the unknown one in the race but it’s all about Battaash for me and I’m hoping he takes a walk in the market and drifts out to a decent price. 

BATAASH 2 point win @ 9/4 BetVictor

 

Ascot 420 

Charlie Appleby has been in irresistible form this season, winning the Derby with Adayar and can take the Group 1 St James Palace with his Dubawi colt who has been working extremely well at home since his 2nd to the re-opposing Mostadhaf at Sandown in the Heron Stakes. He Was giving John Gosden’s unbeaten colt 3lb that night and also raced on the slower part of the track. Today’s better ground will be much more in his favour and under William Buick should run a big race. The only negative fact is that he is drawn 12 of 13 which is not ideal but no doubt the wily Buick will have a plan. The aforementioned Mostadhaf looks a threat along with Poetic Flare who is running in his fourth Group one contest in 43 days. Ryan Moore has chosen Battleground of the 3 Aidan O’Brien runners but he has to put a shocking effort in our 2000 Guineas behind him. Maximal looks an interesting outsider and is worth a cover bet. 

HIGHLAND AVENUE 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234

MAXIMAL ½ point each way @ 25/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 500 

Willie Mullins has farmed this 2m 4F handicap over the past 10 years winning 4 of them, three with Ryan Moore in the saddle so the first place to look at has to be their runner M C Muldoon who comes here on the back of a hurdling campaign. Previously trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam he has never raced beyond 10F on the level and win or lose looks poor value at around the 4/1 to my eyes. Mullins also saddles Royal Illusion and Rayapour who also holds chances of sorts. My two against the field however are both 100% certain to stay this marathon trip. Last year’ winner Coeur De Lion from the dual purpose stable of Alan King is only 3lb higher this year and Just Hubert who won the 2m 5F Goodwood handicap last Summer for the racing partnership of William Muir and Chris Grassick. Preference would just be for the former although I will be having a saver on Just Hubert. 

COEUR DE LION 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 ¼ odds 1234

JUST HUBERT ½ point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 ¼ odds 1234

 

Ascot 535 

The Wolferton Stakes is a listed race run over 10F and has attracted 13 runners in the absence of mudlark Stormy Antarctic. It has an open look about it with Patrick Sarsfield, Solid Stone and Felix among the market leaders. All have some sort of chance but I’ll take a chance each way on the David Menuisier trained Blue Cup who came from way back under a masterful Oisin Murphy ride to win a grade 2 handicap at Epsom earlier in the month. He can be a bit quirky and lost his previous race at York by getting over excited before the race. William Buick takes over from Murphy here and looks decent each way value. 

BLUE CUP 1 point each way @ 15/2 BetVictor 1/5th odds 1234

 

Ascot 610 

Day one concludes with the 1m 6F Copper  Horse Stakes Handicap which has a short priced favourite in the Willie Mullins trained, Ryan Moore ridden Saldier. A decent hurdler he won well on the level at Listowel earlier in the month and despite a big weight here could be well handicapped. Very fast ground though may not be ideal and he’s also a short enough price so I’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet. Global Storm is my idea of the winner and at just around an each way price can take this. A winner over this trip at Newmarket in May he’s been raised 4lb for that and apparently is working very well at Newmarket. Charlie Appleby trains and that man William Buick rides. I acn pass on a tip for the Roger Varian runner Gold Maze and hes worth a small saver bet. . 

GLOBAL STORM 1 ½ points each way @ 9/2 William Hills 1/5 odds 12345

GOLD MAZE 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 Bet365 1/4 1234

 

Just a couple of returns today - 11.65 points on the day. We go again tomorrow 💪

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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I'm out for most of the day today but will try to look for some proper bets later on for the evening flat meetings.

Meanwhile, so as to join in the Royal Ascot fun I have selected and backed the following horses for fun

3.05 Ebro River (JD) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46

3.40 Winter Power (SDS) £2 win at 6.52 = £10.81 if win

4.20 Battleground (RM) £2 win at 7.0 = £11.76 if win

5.00 Postileo (AA) £2 win at 18.5 = £34.30 if win

5.35 Patrick Sarsfield (TM) £2 win at 5.6 = £10.14 if win

6.10 Global Storm (WB) £2 win at 6.4 = £10.58 if win

A feast of entertainment for just £12 🤣

Not good so far with just one second

(A) 6.50 Bri Kendergarden Kop (EM5) £4 win at 6/4

(B) 7.10 Bev Kentucky Kitten (SO5) £2 win at 9/2

(A) + (B) = £4 win double = Poss return £55.00

7.20 Bri Lady Susie (TH5) £1 win at 28/1

I couldn't find another horse at decent enough odds for a Trixie tonight

I hope that everyone enjoyed Royal Ascot, it looks like Rupert had a profitable day for his followers 🙂

 

 

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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not good so far with just one second

(A) 6.50 Bri Kendergarden Kop (EM5) £4 win at 6/4

(B) 7.10 Bev Kentucky Kitten (SO5) £2 win at 9/2

(A) + (B) = £4 win double = Poss return £55.00

7.20 Bri Lady Susie (TH5) £1 win at 28/1

I couldn't find another horse at decent enough odds for a Trixie tonight

I hope that everyone enjoyed Royal Ascot, it looks like Rupert had a profitable day for his followers 🙂

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Well, no good luck at all today, one second at Ascot and I feel a little unlucky that Kendergarden Kop got beat by a nose.

This meant a loss of £21.00 on the day.  My new balance is £865.28 (Bank £1056.22)

Looks like some interesting races at Royal Ascot tomorrow and I'm amazed that the Frankie (7 winners) factor is still in place after all this time.  I should once again be able to have some fun bets for my own entertainment.  Ben Curtis seems to dominate for Mark Johnston at Hamilton, whilst Mark Crehan has two outsiders at Chelmsford.  Paul Hanagan goes to Ripon on a short priced favourite for Richard Fahey and his only other ride is 16/1 for Ann Duffield in the 9.00.

 

 

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