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US Open 2021


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Having lived in San Diego for 5 years, I spent a lot of time enjoying my golf (mostly on Torrey Pines North and South courses).. Probably played 50 rounds or more on each. I was a good golfer in the scratch to 3 handicap range.

There are few courses around the world that will set up as difficult as Torrey pines South, in US open conditions. Three main factors;

1) The length. Even for big hitters, it is damn long, and it's at sea level.

2) The rough. They used to play the Buick Invitational at Torrey (now the Farmer's Insurance), but when they grow that rough, the difficulty level goes through the roof. The week after the Buick, people camp in the parking lot to be first to play a 'PGA' layout/conditioned course. Rounds take 6 hours, because nobody can find their ball when they hit it in the rough. It's insane, 6 inch rough, over seeded (like strands of thick string). Much tougher rough than in Dubai, Leopard creek, Augusta. In the rough you are probably dropping a stroke.

3) The sea breeze. Torrey is right on the Pacific. The wind rolls in, hits the cliffs at Black's beach, and creates a tough wall to penetrate. The low stroke holes (into that breeze) are brutal (hole 1, and hole 12 especially). The cross wind holes like #2, #4, #5 require ball shaping to counter the wind. I did watch Tiger play one year, and he made mincemeat of the wind, but he was a reasonably good golfer ... But until you see it, you can't actually believe how well/hard they strike the ball.

So with this in mind, this course is an accurate, medium to low, BIG ball strikers paradise. Guys that can't average 285 yards or better off the T have zero chance to win here. They will be 60 - 75 yards behind a big bomber.

An example Brendon Todd, who leads in accuracy off the Tee, but 'only' hits it 275 yards won't even make the cut. Long irons into greens are a disaster, because the green side rough is right in play all day.

I like DeChambeau, McIIroy, Champ, Johnson, Finau, Hovland, Rahm, Koepka as big ball hitters. I like Johnson as a ball striker the best, but his putting gibbers have come back.  Koepka, the knees are still not 100%, Mcllroy can't putt and has a double/triple bogey hand grenade in his pocket..  So DeChambeau  ...does drive and gouge work again, or Rahm?

I would add San Diego native, Schauffele (who would have played a ton of golf on that course). Mickelson won't get away with hitting it in the rough on this course and he probably misses the cut for me.

Five Saffers could be in the mix. Oosthuizen, Higgo, van Rooyen, Grace and Nienaber.    

Grace because of his low ball flight, Oosthuizen because he is ridiculously good (and #1 in putting) for a small guy (also grew up playing in the wind on the coast)., Higgo the hottest golfer on the planet (the guy has seriously impressive mindset, and maturity for a 21 year old). He also has this crazy  easy power.

Nienaber who's gonna send DeChambeau to the funny farm with his 365 yard drives and swing speed.  But mentally he is not ready to win. The tournament he blew (I think between Higgo's wins on the Euro tour is a prime example).

Top Saffer ... Higgo.

For the others ... (Fritelli no form, Schwartzel's temper will let him down, Bezuidenthout close but nothing brilliant, Aiken short hitter)

My feeling is that Torrey wipes the floor with the field. Forget 10 under, the winner will be closer to even par. Whoever handles this mental challenge  the best, and keeps himself under control will triumph. Cut is probably +6 and playing + golf is a weird head space for pro golfers. This could be carnage!!!

Winner comes from DeCHAMBEAU, FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN for me

 

 

Edited by neilovan
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Torrey south only has 3 par 5's. This is important, as it is one less hole where the big bombers can pick up strokes.  I think the 6th hole has been converted to a par 4, but this hole really favors a left hander, as they don't have to hit the drive over the edge of the canyon (hole dog legs left to right).

There are 4 par 3's, and all of them are difficult. The third hole, down to the sea, in the corner, has about 8 different tee'ing boxes, and they can make it super tricky. Small green, cross wind, elevation change... good luck. The 8th hole is another tricky one, with a double tier, blind green, bunkers behind. Go too long you will not get up and down.. The 11th is a brute into the sea breeze. The 16th ringed with danger, requiring great shot. Too long, it's double bogey time. Left and right are bunkers playing onto a sloping green. The back of the green falls away, and the Tee box is lower than the green, making the wind unpredictable. Nasty hole. Par is good.

These par 3's  will definitely favor a great iron player (Morikowa and Rahm) ranked 1 and 2 in shots gained Tee to Green. A lot will also depend on how well a hole fits a players natural distance/shot. So some may have a full club into a hole. So look at the results on the par 3's because the guys that are even or under par each round here have a perfect distance. 

Looking closer at the stats. A few combinations of stats stand out.

Driving Accuracy and driving distance. Obviously straight and long is a winner.  I almost think you can exclude anybody who does not keep it in the fairway at least  55% of the time. With 14 drives you are in the rough 7 times. Good luck with that!  The rough/distance to green will crush them. Out of the big guns it includes Mickelson, Gary Woodland, Speith and weirdly enough DeChambeau. I have a weird feeling that bomb and gouge will not work here, as there are too many bunkers guarding the front of the greens  (see the stats here https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.102.html).

To me, the best holes to watch will be the par 4 2nd hole (almost reachable) 389 yard (somebody is gonna pound one close), and the par 5 13th.  621 yards, but they should have some sea breeze assistance. A big bomber with  365+ yards off the Tee will find this monster in 2.  

Tee to green and approach to green look very important. So I am making an adjustment to the above posts prediction.

At least 3 of these 5 (Dechambeau, Speith, Mcllroy, Mickelson and Koepka) don't make the cut. Prob the 3 others and one of DeChambeau and Koepka.

Winner from

FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN  SCHAUFFELE and MORIKOWA.  Can Rahm just keep his cool, and not blow up. The guy has so much game!

 

For me a couple of bets I do like.

NO HOLE IN ONE at odds of even money (the par 3's are just too difficult)

Mcllroy not to make cut 3.75

Spieth not to make cut 3.75

Mickelson not to make cut 2.2 for me this bet is a gift. I expect him to shoot mid /high 70's both rounds.

 

FOR ME the worst bet is a 3 ball bet. You are just not getting the odds to find a winner here. If you can find matchups, ie player A v player B its much better.

1st round Head to head match ups for me ....

John Rahm to beat Rory at 1.7   I think this one is a slam dunk. I expect Rory to shoot 4+ over 1st round. 

Schauffele to beat Koepka 1.9

Ootshuizen to beat Casey 1.9

Higgo to beat Lieshman also 1.9

Edited by neilovan
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Schauffele is a stand out each way bet, 5th-6th-3rd-5th in his 4 attempts at the US Open so obviously suited by this type of layout. Has recent course form having finished 2nd on this course in January and he's from San Diego too.

Hills go 18/1 paying 9 places 👍 

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Very nice write ups Neilovan...I also used to live in San Diego for 5 years, between 2002 -2007 in Ocean Beach..Thats why im a mad Chargers fan, even though they have since bloody moved to L.A.now.. Cest la vie, i used to love my sundays down at the Q Stadium watching L.T., Gates and Rivers do their thing...Anyways,getting back to Golf, a fun bet i always do to get me involved is "10 Players to make the cut"..I normally hit 1 out of the 4 but so far this year ive missed out by just 1 selection on both times..So hopefully third time lucky this week... COLIN MORIKAWA, WILL ZALATORIS, XANDER SCHAUFFELE, VICTOR HOVLAND, PATRICK REED, JASON KOKRAK, TONY FINAU, LOUISE OOSTHUIZEN, GARRICK HIGGO & TAYLOR PENDRITH all To Make The Cut....Parley Pays 25/1 ..... Good Luck Everyone.

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13 minutes ago, bookiebasher said:

Very nice write ups Neilovan...I also used to live in San Diego for 5 years, between 2002 -2007 in Ocean Beach..Thats why im a mad Chargers fan, even though they have since bloody moved to L.A.now.. Cest la vie, i used to love my sundays down at the Q Stadium watching L.T., Gates and Rivers do their thing...Anyways,getting back to Golf, a fun bet i always do to get me involved is "10 Players to make the cut"..I normally hit 1 out of the 4 but so far this year ive missed out by just 1 selection on both times..So hopefully third time lucky this week... COLIN MORIKAWA, WILL ZALATORIS, XANDER SCHAUFFELE, VICTOR HOVLAND, PATRICK REED, JASON KOKRAK, TONY FINAU, LOUISE OOSTHUIZEN, GARRICK HIGGO & TAYLOR PENDRITH all To Make The Cut....Parley Pays 25/1 ..... Good Luck Everyone.

Thanks,

I used to love going to Qualcomm for baseball. So easy ... have a breakfast with some friends, catch the shuttle train, walk across the road and into the Stadium. My best memories were of Tony Gwynn, switch hitting homers, and Trevor Hoffman pitching the craziest breaking ball!!! . Holy crap, they were so damn good ! 

I just like Oosthuizen and Higgo because the just have some serious inner calm. You wouldn't know if they are shooting 80 or 65 

 

Edited by neilovan
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Before my time im afraid..But i was lucky to be at the new Petco Park stadium when it opened,and i even got a job there for something to do in the evenings for a short time so got to see and learn the game of Baseball..And Trevor Hoffman would walk out to the "Hells Bells" music, a brilliant spectacle. Ive still got a signed baseball of his somewhere. Great times in a great city.

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Very seldom golfers win 2 tours in a row, so wouldn't be going near Higgo. 

I've went Reed and Speith, did think of Berger and Simpson. 

Rahm is fav and just wonder if the recent covid incident it could be written in the stars for him. 

Got a few freebie bets that I put on a few other golfers due to the odds. 

 

Edited by fd1972uk
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2 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Very seldom golfers win 2 tours in a row, so wouldn't be going near Higgo. 

I've went Reed and Speith, did think of Berger and Simpson. 

Rahm is fav and just wonder if the recent covid incident it could be written in the stars for him. 

Got a few freebie bets that I put on a few other golfers due to the odds. 

 

I think Higgo was 'given' the Palmetto but with 3 wins in his last 6 starts he has to be an outside shot. 

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So, some thoughts on the first round. What I am looking for are the good players that had bad days, and the average picks that had great days. Very strange to see short hitters doing well. F Molinaria and Cabrera Bello both at 3 under. I don't think Russel Henley can repeat yesterdays round (-4). I would be looking to bet against him.

5 most impressive players on the course yesterday. Koepka, Oosthuizen, Schauffele, Wolff and Rahm.

Koepka was solid, but a crazy shot on the par 3 3rd hole torpedoed him.  

Wolff was only 1 under par, but he made 8 birdies. The par 3's don't fit his eye, as he was 3 over on those 4 holes.

Schauffele had a very solid card. 4 birdies and 2 bogeys for 2 under.

Oosthuizen was insanely good. 1 Bogey on the card, and in absolute cruise control. He will definitely benefit today from the early start. He must finish his round on the 8th and 9th hole, which is great for him. Groove the shot you want to hit into the 8th on the range, and he will probably make birdie on the 9th hole. Even on the par 3's, he was puttng for birdie all day.

I would add one player to my outright winner bets. Hideki Matsuyama hit the ball great. He has some game.

Has big advantage in going out early when the greens are pristine.On the flip side, I don't think Rory is gonna shoot lights out today. He had bad luck on 13 hole, when his foot slipped, but he made birdie on 12 and chipped in as well. One guy I think is going to do miles better today is Bryson deChambeau. He was actually really unlucky on the 13th hole, where he missed his 2nd to the green and it rolled back into a filled divot. He would be thinking 'eagle' or 'birdie' and come up with a 6.

Head to head I am taking;

Fransesco Molinari to beat Russel Hendley at 1.9

Again Rahm to beat Rory at odds of 1.7 (Rahm has just got so much more game, and is fantastic around the greens)

Mathew Fitzpatrick to beat Daniel Berger at 1.9

 

 

 

Edited by neilovan
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On 6/14/2021 at 5:26 PM, Striker said:

Starts Thursday

Will keep the faith with Viktor Hovland

Who likes this test of golf finishing 13th & 12th in the two Opens he has played

Each Way [7 places] @ 28-1 with Unibet

Any other opinions?

Withdrew due to pain in his left eye during second round....

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My main bets made the cut but have no chance. 

Tbh although a few big hitters on evens I only see a winner from anyone on minus. 

Got a couple.of free bets who are among it and have a chance. 

My Dad was backing Wolff traditionally until recently and switched to Conners and Zalatoris for last couple. Mind you Wolff starts well and seems to run out of juice. 

 

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A strange day of golf, with all my cut bets losing. In the head to heads I just need one runner to land. Oosthuizen would be best at 56 to 1. Think Wolff or Watson could sneak in. Both playing well.

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Wow my 10 to make the cut turned out horribly..Only 4 made it...My worst ever at that kind of bet..Im on Oosthuizen and Morikawa outright at 45/1 e/w and 22/1 e/w so hopefully i can claw some money back. Good luck everyone.

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35 minutes ago, bookiebasher said:

Wow my 10 to make the cut turned out horribly..Only 4 made it...My worst ever at that kind of bet..Im on Oosthuizen and Morikawa outright at 45/1 e/w and 22/1 e/w so hopefully i can claw some money back. Good luck everyone.

For me the danger men are Bubba Watson and Mathew Wolff. Playing really well. Bubba at 22-1 is a decent bet and I took some cover on Wolff as well.

Don't know what happened with Oosthuizen yesterday. At one stage his approach irons went to pieces. Missing simple 9 irons to the green. 

Edited by neilovan
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Put a small free bet on Rahm, so at least got something back. 

At 9/1 just isn't worth it and don't like lumping on money on the favourite. 

As said felt the whole Covid issue was going to be the story of the tournie for him. My guy actually won that tournie when he had to pull out. 

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