Racing Chat - Saturday 5th June

[The Brigadier]

Derby Day! The unexpected rain fall on Friday morning/afternoon took many, myself included by surprise but it does seem that its dry from then on in and the ground for Saturday is likely to ride on the slow side. Here’s my early thoughts on the day’s seven races. 

Epsom 2.00

King Frankel was runner up in the London Cup to a potential Group horse in Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge though he has been raised 6lb for being beaten 4L and although that race is normally a good yardstick to future success has yet to been tested so although he must have a sound chance I’ll rather be with the form credentials of the Ralph Beckett trained Patient Dream who won here at the April meeting over 1m and should relish the step up 2F here with his dam a winner over 12F. He’s been shunted up 7lb for that success but the firm has worked out remarkably well with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th all winning since!. Add in the factor of a low draw and the booking of champion jockey Oisin Murphy and I feel we have ourselves a decent bet. 

PATIENT DREAM 2 points each way @  4/1 1/5th 123 BetVictor

Epsom 2.35

The Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes can go the way of the Martyn Meade trained three year old Statement who ran a stormer on his re-appearance when just beaten in a head bobbing finish by the smart Alcohol Free in the Fred Darling at Newbury. That form has worked out nicely with the winner and third finishing 5th and 6th in the 1000 Guineas and 4th Primo Bacio impressively winning the Michael Seeley Memorial race at York. Statement went on herself to finish a credible 8th (beaten 6L) in the 1000 Guineas and getting weight from the older mares looks the likeliest winner here under David Egan. The likes of Maamora, Posted and Nazuna all hold chances on the form book but we know how good they are and this may well go to an improver. 

STATEMENT 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

Epsom 3.10

Century Dream won this in 2018 on his only run at the track and is the highest rated horse in the race. Crisford’s classy 7 year old is best when the mud is flying and connections would of been over the moon to have seen the rain that fell on Friday and will be hard to beat. Bell Rock is stepping up in grade though has a chance .Sir Michael Stoute runs Maximal who has numerous Group 1 entries this Summer. The only three year old in the field he’s shown up well on both his starts this season in finishing runner up to two smart sorts in Hurricane Lane and El Drama. Drying ground would have been right up his street as all his relations thrived when encountering fast ground but the ground has maybe gone against him and in favour of Century Dream and with James Doyle in the plate can  take this Group 3 Cazoo Diomed Stakes run over 9F and 13 yards. 

CENTURY DREAM  3 points win @3/1 BetVictor

 

Epsom 3.45

The Dash Handicap run over one of the fastest 5F in the land is a sight to see and once again there is a maximum field of 20 going to post. The draw is a strange one as it always used to be the low numbers on the far side that had the call but there has been times in recent years when it’s totally flipped and high have come out on top. Personally I would prefer a low number and in an open handicap my pin has fallen on the 2019 winner Ornate who flashed home from stall 2 that year off of a handicap mark of 99 and races here today off of 98 so David C Griffith’s 7 year old could be well treated. He teed up for this with a credible 8th of 11 in listed company last Saturday in the race won by Kings Lynn at Haydock and will appreciate the better ground here today. Shop around with the bookmakers with William Hill paying 6 places and Skybet 7 places. His regular pilot Phil Dennis is in the saddle. 

ORNATE 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/4th 12345 Bet365

 

Epsom 430

This year’s Cazoo Derby has attracted 12 quality colts going for glory over 1m 4F of this unique track. Aidan 0’Brien throw a curve ball when announcing that he will only be running just the one in Bolshoi Ballet. The last time he was represented by just a sole challenger was when Bolshoi Ballet’s sire Galileo won 20 years ago. He’s unbeaten in two trials in Ireland this season and is undoubtably the most likely winner but at around 5/4 and many firms paying extra places it may be wise to look elsewhere for some each way value. Mac Swiney brings classic winning form to the table having won the Irish 2000 Guineas last time and as dual Group 1 winner in heavy ground connections would of been delighted to have seen the rain that fell during Friday. He’s stepping up to 1m 4F for the first time and trained by the maestro Jim Bolger can run a big race. Godolphin saddle three with the pick being Hurricane Lane who won the traditionally best Derby trial, the Dante at York last time. He looks sure to run well stepping up in distance. The William Haggas trained Mohaafeth was an easy winner of a listed race at Newmarket last month. This represents a big step up in grade, his form has yet to be tested and he would of been the pick if the rain hadn’t arrived as he’s a better horse on genuine fast ground. With extra places around with bookmakers the best value looks to be Mac Swiney Each Way. 

MAC SWINEY 2 points each way @ 11/2 1/5th 1234 Boylesports

 

Epsom 5.15

The key piece of form to un ravelling this handicap appears to be the City And Surburban Handicap run over course and distance back in April. Group One Power won that by 3/4L from Soto Sizzler and has since gone on to run well when runner up to Louganini at Ascot. He has a solid chance but it’s the runner up that day Soto Sizzler that appeals to me on 4lb better terms. He has an excellent record at the track with form figures of 112 including this event 2 years ago and maybe he just didn’t stay 1m 6F last time when flopping at Newmarket. Trained in West Sussex by David Menuisier he will be ridden by Oisin Murphy who won him here back in April 2019 and looks decent each way value. Top weight Lost Eden is the least unexposed in the field but appears to have plenty of weight for his handicap debut. 

SOTO SIZZLER 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power

 

Epsom 5.50

 

The configuration of the track means that low numbers are always going to be favoured with the winning draw over the last 9 years coming from 4,7,10,6,7,4,15,4 and 5 so as you can see it maybe wise to concentrate on those drawn low. Top weight Danzeno is in stall 2 but we haven’t seen him for awhile and he’s overlooked. David Menuisier’s Atalanta’s Boy appeared better than ever when winning on his re-appearance at his favourite track Goodwood and although he’s racing off of his highest ever handicap mark here of 95 following a 4lb rise for that victory he’s favourably berthed in stall 6 and with his regular pilot Thomas Greatrex riding looks set to run a big race. There’s many others with chances and as always shop around for the firms paying extra places here in this 14 runner 86-105 sprint handicap that concludes this year’s Cazoo Derby meeting.

 

ATALANTA'S BOY 1 point each way 6/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

 

[Zilzalian]

Here is a question given Snowfalls demolition job, was that pretty poor oaks? (look to snowfalls form)

Also an opinion for newcomers to the sport to consider. I rarely back O'Brien horses and never short price ones. Because i don't believe 1 word that comes out of his mouth. (again look at his form)