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2020 European Championship Specials, Totals and Spreads


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I'm sure @StevieDay1983 meant to start this thread in anticipation of some off-piste witterings from me ahead of the tournament! ;)

I've just had a quick browse around the firms and spotted a few things of potential interest, including one possible "totals" bet.

I'll add posts over the next few days, all views and contributions welcome.

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Here's a link to the pages with the totals spreads on SPIN and SX, e.g. total tournament goals, penalties, cards etc. Might be some betting opportunities or can help flag value with fixed odds bets. If anyone's interested please take a look and let me know if you spot any lines that strike you as too high or too low. I've already spotted a probable bet and will be ploughing through the markets today and tomorrow. 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/international-euro-2020-all-markets/group_a.b05493c8-e044-4d1b-bd20-1e7cf56a1d2a/euro-2020-tournament-totals-markets

https://www.spreadex.com/sports/en-GB/spread-betting/football/uefa---euro-2020/tournament-totals/spr/p1797053

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My first bet is to buy total substitute goals for 12 points at 17.5 with SPIN (based on all 51 games and includes extra time).

Obviously there's the whole 5 subs allowed thing to factor into the equation, which can only increase the expected number of goals scored by replacements (though I'm not aware of the precise stats for the effect of this change).

There were 19 goals scored by subs in Euro 2016 (14 in the group stages). That equates to 17.6% of all goals scored in what was a low-scoring tournament with an unusual tendency for late goals. There were 11 in 2012 (when there were fewer games) equating to 14.5% of all goals and 13 in 2008 equating to 16.9%. With around 130 goals expected this year we're targeting a percentage of around 14% for profit which seems achievable give the increased number of changes allowed.

Going backwards, the percentage of sub goals in the last 6 World Cups has been as follows; 8.8%, 18.7%, 10.3%, 15.6%, 13% and 8.8% (giving an average of 12.5%).

Had the World Cup stats been more encouraging I'd probably have gone 20 points on this bet but, with the cautionary note struck by some of those low numbers, I'm being a bit more cautious. Still seems like a modest risk to take to me though. I'll post if I spot any decent fixed odds options for this market.

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Kevin Pullein one of 6 writers asked for an opinion on various markets in the RP pullout. I'd take these as his selection if having a bet rather than something he'd recommend staking real money on.

Outright: Italy 11/1

Dark Horses: Holland: 14/1

Top Goalscorer: Werner 29/1

Player of the Tournament: van de Beek 150/1

Group Nap: Italy to win Group A 8/13

Scotland v England: England 2-0 11/2

I may follow one or two for an antepost interest in the absence of any strong views myself. Perhaps Italy and Werner. I've already had the 20p allowed on van de Beek at what is a standout price.

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2 points on Lukaku most assists at 100/1 Uni

This went from looking like a great bet (when I briefly ranked the squad on goals scored rather than assists) to an ok to muggish one but, having gone so far down the road with it, I decided it was worth a couple of quid.

Hills the only other firm to price the market and they go 28/1. His tournament assists can be bought at 0.9 with only a few players meriting a quote >1 (De Bruyne at 1.6 being market favourite). 3 or 4 assists could well be enough to win this market. Admittedly he'll probably shoot even when passing is the right thing to do but the price feels a little generous for an attacking player for one of the favourites. 

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40 points on any player to score in the first 66 seconds of a match at 9/4 with Hills

Basically a bet that the record of fastest goal in the Euros will be broken this year. Doesn't look like a great bet if you just focus on past Euros but there have only been 15 renewals so far and most with fewer games so it's a small sample size. By my reckoning, 4 of the last 6 World Cups gave seen at least one goal in the first minute of a game and it happens about 4 times in a Premier League season. 

The spread for fastest goal is set at 80-86 seconds and the same market is only 6/4 elsewhere (with 2/1 for a goal in the first minute).

Fastest goal time is a market I've looked at ahead of Euros and World Cups for years now, with some past success but no bets for a few years. I'd say the absence of a 1st minute goal in the Euros is slightly freakish and that the chance of there being one this year is greater than those odds imply.

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6 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

That record for fastest goal bet is one I'm keen to see unfold.

Yeah, it's an odd one in terms of the interest it gives you, all loaded into the first minute or so! I'd sold the time of fastest goal at the 2002 World Cup when Sukur broke the record in the 3rd place game. I'd got up early to watch a nothing match, pretty much given up on the bet and wasn't thinking about it. I think I was on the guy who passed to him to score first or anytime so I was just shouting "don't pass it" when I remembered the bet just as the ball went into the net. I went crazy running round the living room celebrating!

That was also the tournament where I came 3rd in a spread firm's fantasy style competition where the prize was 1000 units of the 3rd placed team's currency. Unfortunately, 1000 Turkish Lira literally wouldn't butter any parsnips! :eyes

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26 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

That was also the tournament where I came 3rd in a spread firm's fantasy style competition where the prize was 1000 units of the 3rd placed team's currency. Unfortunately, 1000 Turkish Lira literally wouldn't butter any parsnips! :eyes

:lol Love that! Turkey were a lucky streak for my mate during that 2000-2008 period where they caused so many upsets at major tournaments. I remember we were at a Glamorgan T20 cricket match when Kahveci Nihat scored twice in the last 3 minutes to seal a 3-2 win over Czech Republic to see them pip their opponents to that second qualification spot in that group to earn him his qualification from group payout. He'd also backed them to go far at the 2002 World Cup. What a team they had back then though!

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Unibet have a list of player goals prices for quite a few players, either >0.5 or >1.5 lines. Might be worth a look for anyone not maxed out on their antepost bets. I saw 3 odds against >0.5 bets that interested me but, as it's singles only, I'm not going to bother.

Soucek at 11/10, Yarmolenko at 6/5 and Pandev at 21/20 were the platers in question.

Pukki for 2+ group goals at 3/1 also didn't seem bad but I'm already on him in the GB index. He's 9/2 to score against Denmark which may tempt me in.

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On 6/7/2021 at 2:53 PM, harry_rag said:

40 points on any player to score in the first 66 seconds of a match at 9/4 with Hills

Sky Bet now up with 5/2 for this record to be broken. I think I'll resist the temptation of a small top up.

Big movement in the price for 2+ cards in every game; this was initially 100/1 with PP and 125/1 with Hills. It's now 33/1 best. Personally I was tempted to have a couple of quid on the 125/1 but, mathematically, it's poor value based on a 51 game event with an expectation of around 4 cards per game. 1+ card in every game was 6/10 with Hills but 2/1 elsewhere. If Hills were going odds against on at least one game with no cards that would probably have been my bet of the tournament! Lads' offer of 10/3 for 15+ bookings points in every game has to be a candidate for the worst!

I'm currently trying to work out the true odds of a keeper scoring a goal in any game (shootouts excluded). :eyes

 

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54 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I'm currently trying to work out the true odds of a keeper scoring a goal in any game (shootouts excluded). :eyes

It's about 36/1 apparently, give or take! That's based on me furiously stabbing a calculator to process the fact that there have been 6 goals by keepers in Premier League history! You could argue it's slightly shorter in a tournament where extra time is a possibility and there may be more "sudden death" scenarios. Essentially I've worked out the odds of a keeper not scoring in a PL game and multiplied it out as a 51 game acca! So, with that in mind, my final pre-tournament bet is:

3 points on any keeper to score a goal (excludes penalty shootouts) at 50/1 with Skybet.

A bit "mug" maybe but there's at least a prima facia case for it being value if very unlikely and it gives me a bit of excitement should a keeper make his way to the opposition's box.

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On 6/10/2021 at 2:43 PM, harry_rag said:

Unibet have a list of player goals prices for quite a few players, either >0.5 or >1.5 lines. Might be worth a look for anyone not maxed out on their antepost bets. I saw 3 odds against >0.5 bets that interested me but, as it's singles only, I'm not going to bother.

Soucek at 11/10, Yarmolenko at 6/5 and Pandev at 21/20 were the players in question.

Shame I couldn’t get that treble on as 2 of them scored at the first time of asking! Soucek is actually 6/4 with Sky Bet but, despite the risk of Sod’s Law kicking in, I’m backing at 7/1 to score v Scotland today.

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