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Racing Chat - Tuesday 1st June


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All prices Bet365:
 

1.00 Brighton - 1pt win Honey Pot @ 6/1

1.15 Redcar - 1pt e/w Martin's Brig @ 15/2

1.35 Brighton - 1pt win De Vegas Kid @ 13/2

1.45 Redcar - 1pt e/w Hoofs Happy Now @ 20/1

3.10 Leicester - 1pt e/w Kattani @ 25/1

3.20 Brighton - 1pt e/w Blairlogie @ 25/1

4.25 Brighton - 2pts win Spreadsheet @ 4/1

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A bold attempt at Leicester and Redcar with reduced profit if in-running prices gets matched and my selections win.  The idea is to save on stakes if the selection runs well, gets matched but doesn't win.  I do realise that for every winner I sacrifice say 50% profit then I need to retrieve more money on my losers to compensate but I think that this is worth a go

1.25 Leic Primo (JD) £3.70 win at 6.8 = £10.15 profit @ 4.0 I/R

2.00 Leic Neptune Legend (JD) £4 win at 6.2 = £10.58 @ 3.5 I/R

  2.35 Leic Sadies Day (HD) £2 win at 11.5 = £12.35 p @ 5.2 I/R

3.45 Leic Menai Bridge (KS not a top Jock but horse in good form) £2.50 at 10.0 = £11.52 at 5.3 I/R

4.50 Leic Ocean Eyes (JD) £2 win at 11.5 = £10.39 at 6.2 I/R

1.15 Red Blausee (DT) £2 win at 21 = £20.58 at 10.5 I/R

1.45 Red Cometh The Man (DT) £3 win at 8.2 = £10.88 at 4.5 I/R; Lochnaver (BC) £2 win at 27 = £20.58 at 15

2.20 Red May Punch (DA not a top Jock but horse looks good) £2 win at 13.5 = £12.35 at 7.2

2.55 Red Kentucky Rose (KS) £2 win at 12.0 = £11.37 at 6.2 I/R

4.35 Red Nastasia (DT) £3.50 at 7.2 = £11.15 at 3.95' Prison break (PH) £2 win at 18.5 = £14.01 at 9.6 I/R

5.05 Red Glenifer (BR5) £3 win at 8.6 = £11.47 at 4.7 I/R (I hope that Serena's horse doesn't win)

Total stakes = £33.70

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

A bold attempt at Leicester and Redcar with reduced profit if in-running prices gets matched and my selections win.  The idea is to save on stakes if the selection runs well, gets matched but doesn't win.  I do realise that for every winner I sacrifice say 50% profit then I need to retrieve more money on my losers to compensate but I think that this is worth a go

1.25 Leic Primo (JD) £3.70 win at 6.8 = £10.15 profit @ 4.0 I/R

2.00 Leic Neptune Legend (JD) £4 win at 6.2 = £10.58 @ 3.5 I/R

  2.35 Leic Sadies Day (HD) £2 win at 11.5 = £12.35 p @ 5.2 I/R

3.45 Leic Menai Bridge (KS not a top Jock but horse in good form) £2.50 at 10.0 = £11.52 at 5.3 I/R

4.50 Leic Ocean Eyes (JD) £2 win at 11.5 = £10.39 at 6.2 I/R

1.15 Red Blausee (DT) £2 win at 21 = £20.58 at 10.5 I/R

1.45 Red Cometh The Man (DT) £3 win at 8.2 = £10.88 at 4.5 I/R; Lochnaver (BC) £2 win at 27 = £20.58 at 15

2.20 Red May Punch (DA not a top Jock but horse looks good) £2 win at 13.5 = £12.35 at 7.2

2.55 Red Kentucky Rose (KS) £2 win at 12.0 = £11.37 at 6.2 I/R

4.35 Red Nastasia (DT) £3.50 at 7.2 = £11.15 at 3.95' Prison break (PH) £2 win at 18.5 = £14.01 at 9.6 I/R

5.05 Red Glenifer (BR5) £3 win at 8.6 = £11.47 at 4.7 I/R (I hope that Serena's horse doesn't win)

Total stakes = £33.70

 

 

 

you see tom marquand winners again hes on a hot streak!

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5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

you see tom marquand winners again hes on a hot streak!

Don't I know it!! I just don't know how I missed Classy Dame in the 3.45.  I backed Menai Bridge and although my lay bet got matched my heart sank when I saw that Tom had done the business on his ride.   Racing Post narrative: "Classy Dame After two Class 6 wins she has struggled off higher marks in a pair of Class 5s".  Just goes to show that the right jockey on the right horse produced by the right trainer makes a mockery of what the form experts say. Frankie Dettorie said recently that Ryan Moore was the best jockey around at the moment but I reckon that Tom Marquand is up there with him. 😂  

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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

A bold attempt at Leicester and Redcar with reduced profit if in-running prices gets matched and my selections win.  The idea is to save on stakes if the selection runs well, gets matched but doesn't win.  I do realise that for every winner I sacrifice say 50% profit then I need to retrieve more money on my losers to compensate but I think that this is worth a go

1.25 Leic Primo (JD) £3.70 win at 6.8 = £10.15 profit @ 4.0 I/R

2.00 Leic Neptune Legend (JD) £4 win at 6.2 = £10.58 @ 3.5 I/R

  2.35 Leic Sadies Day (HD) £2 win at 11.5 = £12.35 p @ 5.2 I/R

3.45 Leic Menai Bridge (KS not a top Jock but horse in good form) £2.50 at 10.0 = £11.52 at 5.3 I/R

4.50 Leic Ocean Eyes (JD) £2 win at 11.5 = £10.39 at 6.2 I/R

1.15 Red Blausee (DT) £2 win at 21 = £20.58 at 10.5 I/R

1.45 Red Cometh The Man (DT) £3 win at 8.2 = £10.88 at 4.5 I/R; Lochnaver (BC) £2 win at 27 = £20.58 at 15

2.20 Red May Punch (DA not a top Jock but horse looks good) £2 win at 13.5 = £12.35 at 7.2

2.55 Red Kentucky Rose (KS) £2 win at 12.0 = £11.37 at 6.2 I/R

4.35 Red Nastasia (DT) £3.50 at 7.2 = £11.15 at 3.95' Prison break (PH) £2 win at 18.5 = £14.01 at 9.6 I/R

5.05 Red Glenifer (BR5) £3 win at 8.6 = £11.47 at 4.7 I/R (I hope that Serena's horse doesn't win)

Total stakes = £33.70

 

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

I didn't fare too bad.  On the day I lost £4.26. this is because Paul Hanagan won on Prison Break for me.   Unfortunately for me I retrieved £8 on matched bets where the  selections lost but sacrificed  £17.20 on Prison Break so I worse off by £9.20! I felt confident about backing more horses but not enough of the losers got matched to pay for the loss on my winner.  There is a place for the in running lay bets, I feel.  This is ironically best on the outsiders.  The way to do it is to find and outsider that one feels will run well.  Next check with oddschecker about the best available price, then request a much higher price on the Betfair Betting Exchange. Usually, outsiders just drift badly on the Exchange, especially in the run up to a race.  For example if you request a price of 17.00 about a horse and its best market price is 10/1, then by holding out for 17.00 and then putting in an In running lay bet at 6.4 means that you would be no worse off than had you taken the earlier 10/1 price.  This would have the additional comfort that if the horse runs really well and gets matched at 6.4 and doesn't win you would get your stake money back.     

I may play the outsiders like this tomorrow but the jury is still out on the shorter priced selections

My new balance is now £939.86 (Bank £1056.22)

Four UK flat meetings tomorrow.  The top jockeys are spread out.  Tom Marquand is riding at Ripon with quite a lot of fancied rides 

 

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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Don't I know it!! I just don't know how I missed Classy Dame in the 3.45.  I backed Menai Bridge and although my lay bet got matched my heart sank when I saw that Tom had done the business on his ride.   Racing Post narrative: "Classy Dame After two Class 6 wins she has struggled off higher marks in a pair of Class 5s".  Just goes to show that the right jockey on the right horse produced by the right trainer makes a mockery of what the form experts say. Frankie Dettorie said recently that Ryan Moore was the best jockey around at the moment but I reckon that Tom Marquand is up there with him. 😂  

Eureka !!! I got it now.  From now on I will look at all my top jockey rides and go through their day and select what I believe to be their best chances and back say one or two.  I will also look at the apprentices with allowances rides on the day.  I will look to favour rides at the greater prices and if  one top  jockey/apprentice is on the shorter priced selection I will look to see if value can be obtained from one of his/her rivals at a better price 🙂

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