2020 European Championship Group E Predictions

[StevieDay1983]

Please post your predictions and bets for the Group E games that are set to be played in the 2020 European Championship right here. I'll be posting all the previews for matches in this group in this thread. 

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

Spain

Luis Enrique Martinez Garcia plays new ones instead of players of Real Madrid. It does strengthen their offensive. But it is unsure that they will play well as they lack experience.

 

Sweden

It is a pity that Zlatan Ibrahimovic will not be in the Tournament because of injuries. They are in form, getting a three-match winning streak with 6 scoring goals but only 1 conceding goal.

 

Verdict:

Spain is taking a new step at present. It is hard to say whether their new formation will make a good effect. Sweden are in high morale. They stand the chance to win. So the result of the game is suggested to be a draw.

 

Prediction: 1-1, 2-2

[StefanBB]

Poland vs Slovakia

Only one win from the last seven games cannot provide too much optimism for the Polish fans. Knowing that the victory came against minnows Andorra, it’s clear that Poland struggles recently. They had a mixed start in the World Cup Quals, picking four points from the first three rounds. Paulo Sousa’s side has been searching for a victory against a top national team for a very long time. Their games against equally-ranked sides were mostly ended in draws. Although Robert Lewandowski and the lads are pretty productive in the front, Poland struggles to keep its net intact. They failed to score only once on the previous nine occasions but conceded in six out of the last seven matches. Poland needs to do much better in the back on this tournament to have a good chance of qualifying for the knockout stage.

Slovakia is not in much better form, as they booked only one win in the previous six games. Stefan Tarkovic’s side drew four times on the last five occasions, while they beat only Russia during that period. Their start in the World Cup Quals wasn’t too convincing, as Slovakia failed to win against Cyprus and Malta. Like their opponents, Milan Skriniar and the lads have trouble keeping the clean sheet. They managed to do that only once in the last four games, and it was in their most recent prep match against Austria. They need to be much more disciplined, as all rivals in the group have great players in the final third.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

It is going to be a tight clash, but Poland is a slight favorite in this one. We believe they will meet the expectations and pick up all three points from this clash. With a potential victory, Poland can hope for a place in the knockout stage.

Goals Market Prediction

Poland has been clinical in front of the oppositions’ goal, but their defense is pretty leaky. Slovakia could exploit their rival’s weaknesses in the back and manage to score in this encounter.

Poland to Win @ 1.80 

BTTS Yes @ 2.20 

Correct score 2:1 @ 8.50

[StefanBB]

Spain vs Sweden

When taking a look at the hosts’ stats, it seems they have been pretty good lately, as they haven’t lost eight times in a row. However, besides trashing Germany in the UEFA Nations League 6:0, Spain hasn’t been impressive at all. Draws against Switzerland and Greece seemed to be unlikely possible just a few years ago. Luis Enrique’s side barely managed to beat Georgia on the road, while they booked “only” a 3:1 win against Kosovo*. During the warm-up for EURO 2020, La Furia Roja played a goalless draw against Portugal and celebrated against Lithuania 4:0. Nevertheless, Spain is still among the favorites to win the tournament, but they need to be much more confident. Sergio Busquets and Diego Llorente will be sidelined for this match and won’t be able to help their teammates.

Sweden didn’t enjoy its UEFA Nations League campaign, as they got relegated from the top division. However, their start into the World Cup Quals looks promising. Although their opponents are not among the strongest ones, Sweden managed to book six points from the opening two rounds. Janne Andersson’s side is on a hot run of five straight wins, and they want to continue in the same fashion. However, their opponent is much stronger than the ones before. Emil Forsberg and the lads celebrated in all three prep matches and head to this game in positive momentum. They need an excellent performance to pick up something from this clash.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

With Spain being unimpressive lately, we believe bookies severely underestimated Sweden. They are more than capable of surprising the hosts, but we’ll dip our fingers into the Asian Handicap market. Sweden shouldn’t lose by more than one goal, and we find the odds pretty generous.

Goals Market Prediction

Despite keeping the clean sheet in the last two games, Spain hasn’t been too confident in the back. They conceded against much weaker teams than Sweden, and we believe the visitors could find the back of the opposition’s net at least once in this encounter.

Sweden AH +1.5 @ 1.75 

BTTS Yes @ 2.40 

Correct score 1:1 @ 10.00

Edited June 14, 2021 by StefanBB

[peanut peanut]

2-1 Spain @ 17/2

2-1 Sweden 35/1

[peanut peanut]

2-1 Poland @ 9/1

2-1 Slovakia 18/1

[harry_rag]

Poland v Slovakia: 20 points on a header scored at 21/10 Hills

Klich and Bednarek interesting for a card at 7/2 each, might swerve though.

Spain v Sweden: 20 points on a header scored at 9/5 Hills

3 points on the header scored treble in today’s games at 30.46

[StevieDay1983]

Poland vs Slovakia

Group E kicks off on Monday afternoon in the European Championship with the 5pm BST kick-off when Poland play Slovakia at the Krestovsky Stadium in St Petersburg. Many people consider Spain the favourites for this group but does that mean the 2nd automatic qualification spot is wide open? Or will we see one of these two sides step forward as main rivals for the top spot?

Poland will be coming into this group feeling that they have more than enough to take one of the top two qualification spots and will be keen to begin their campaign with a win. Head coach Paulo Sousa has seen his team experience a tricky run-in to this tournament having won just 1 of their last 7 games and that was against minnows Andorra in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. Defeats against Italy, Netherlands, and England have left me thinking they'll struggle to topple Spain but they've also showed with draws against the likes of Italy, Russia, and Iceland over the past year or so that they remain a difficult side to break down. Robert Lewandowski is undoubtedly their biggest threat but they'll be reeling from the injury to Arkadiusz Milik. Scoring goals hasn't been an issue for Poland having hit the opposition net 11 times in their last 6 games but they've also only kept 1 clean sheet during that time.

Slovakia are one of those teams you can never write off. Even after the opening game defeat to Wales at the 2016 European Championship they still managed to navigate their way out of that group into the last 16. Stefan Tarkovic is the man tasked with getting the national team out of this group and after a poor UEFA Nations League campaign that saw Slovakia relegated to League C the team managed to qualify for the 2020 European Championship through the play-offs after wins over Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. One win and two draws from their first three matches in 2022 World Cup qualification means they are 3rd in their group and just 1 point off the top spot. It also means the team is unbeaten in their 5 matches played in 2021. However, scoring goals is a problem for Slovakia with them failing to register a goal in 3 of their last 6 matches. An over-reliance on the back-line can be a high pressure approach to take in a major tournament. The fact centre back Milan Skriniar has also been a frequent scorer of late suggests that if Slovakia lose him to injury or he isn't performing to his best ability then they could suffer real problems.

Before writing this preview I had this down as a solid Poland win but Slovakia have picked up enough gritty results recently to leave me feeling they will be a tough proposition for their opponents here. I still think the top two in this group should be Spain and Poland. Will Poland begin their campaign with a win? I think they will and it will simply be because they have a clinical finisher in Lewandowski that Slovakia lack.

Poland to Win @ 1.75 with SBK

Anytime Scorer: Robert Lewandowski @ 2.12 with SBK

 

[StevieDay1983]

Spain vs Sweden

The second game in Group E kicks off at 8pm BST on Monday night when one of the pre-tournament dark horses Spain take on underdogs Sweden at La Cartuja in Seville. Will it be the perfect start for the one of the host nations as they look to take a big step towards the last 16 despite being plagued by covid-19 issues or will the Scandinavians take full advantage to spring a shock?

Spain might not be the force they were in the late 2000s and early 2010s but this is still a squad that possesses an abundance of talent. Head coach Luis Enrique made the bold decision of not including any Real Madrid players in his squad including the experienced Sergio Ramos. Even with such surprise omissions, you look at this Spanish squad with the likes of David De Gea, Aymeric Laporte, Sergio Busquets, Koke, Rodri, Mikel Oyarzabal, and Ferran Torres and you realise how packed with ability this squad is. The only problem is Busquets' positive covid-19 test and it remains to be seen how many of the players isolating due to that test will be available come kick-off. In terms of form, Spain have been progressing well reaching the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League and topping their 2022 World Cup qualification group after being unbeaten for their first three matches. It's just 1 loss in their last 24 matches and 3 wins from their last 4 games.

Sweden have also endured their own covid-19 strife in the lead-up to this game. The highly-rated Dejan Kulusevski and Mattias Svanberg have both tested positive with the former already being ruled out of this game by head coach Janne Andersson. The Blue and Yellows form had been looking a bit dodgy coming into 2021 with 6 defeats from 8 games in 2020. That could mainly be attributed to a tough set of fixtures in their UEFA Nations League group. However, it's been a lot more positive this calendar year with 5 wins from 5 games including 4 clean sheets. Although it should be noted that as tough as the fixtures were in 2020, the 2021 opponents haven't, with all due respect, been world beaters in the shape of Georgia, Kosovo, Estonia, Finland, and Armenia. You can only beat what's in front of you though. Andersson is likely to continue with the 4-4-2 that has seen his side grind out these results with the up front pair of Marcus Berg and Alexander Isak.

It's a tough start for both teams here. Spain will be without their captain and wise head in midfield but they have enough quality to cover for Busquets. Sweden are likely to miss Kulusevski more but will still feel they can grind out a result here after experiencing matches against the very best teams in the world last year in the Nations League. I still think Spain will have enough to seal a solid win on home turf but it'll be a tricky game and they might need some fortune.

Spain HT/FT @ 2.28 with SBK

Anytime Scorer: Ferran Torres @ 3.35 with SBK

[harry_rag]

The RP suggest Glik as Poland’s “card magnet” but there are 3 players who strike me as being more attractive (if you’ll excuse the pun). On the basis that one is enough for profit I’ve had 10 points each on these 3 to be carded.

Bednarek at 4/1 Betway

Klich at 19/4 Betway

Krychowiak at 4.6 on BF

[slipkid]

11 hours ago, peanut peanut said:

2-1 Poland @ 9/1

2-1 Slovakia 18/1

Hmmm. I think this peanut's onto something... ?

 

Well done!

[harry_rag]

Well it worked in the first game so having a tilt at another trio of card magnets in the last game where one will show a profit.

12.5 points on Olsson at 3/1 PP (RP tip him as well)

12 points on Ekdal at 16/5 PP

12 points on Larsson at 3/1 365

I also think the Hills double up is value again (Depay goal short of a win last night) so 7 points on Spain to win, btts and > 7 corners at 7/1.

[StefanBB]

Sweden vs Slovakia

Blågult’s winning streak came to an end in their EURO 2020 opening match, but they won’t be too upset about it. Sweden managed to snatch a point against Spain and significantly increased their chances of going further. Janne Andersson’s side got what it came for and earned a goalless draw against one of the title contenders. Although they were pretty inferior, Sweden managed to neutralize the majority of La Furia Roja’s attacks. Mikael Lustig and the lads managed to keep their fifth clean sheet in the last six games, and Sweden looks very tight in the back. Nevertheless, those opponents were not among the top ones, this record can only provide a boost of confidence. Sweden wants to get back on the winning track and come very close to the knockout stage spot.

Slovakia also had an excellent start to the campaign, as they celebrated a vital 2:1 victory over Poland. However, despite having a half-time lead, Stefan Tarkovic’s side severely hanged over the cliff after Poland equalized. Nevertheless, when it seemed they won’t make it, Slovakia got generous help from their rivals and an extra player on the pitch. Marek Hamsik and the lads haven’t tasted a defeat on the previous six occasions, but they celebrated just twice during that period. Another three points could definitely seal their place in the knockout stage.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

It is going to be a tight clash that can go either way. However, we think Sweden is a slight favorite, and they could celebrate their first victory in EURO 2020. Sweden has also been more successful in their head-to-head clashes in this millennium.

Goals Market Prediction

Sweden has been pretty tight in the back recently, and they are looking forward to another disciplined performance. Slovakia had a lot of luck in the premier clash, and we believe this one will remain under a 2.5 margin.

Sweden to Win @ 1.85 

Under 2.5 FT @1.60 

Correct score 1:0 @ 6.00

[peanut peanut]

2-1 Sweden 17/2

2-1 Slovakia @ 16/1

[StevieDay1983]

Sweden vs Slovakia

The Group E action enters its second round of group games on Friday afternoon with Sweden playing Slovakia in a 2pm BST from the Krestovsky Stadium in St Petersburg. This is a golden opportunity for both teams to realistically book their place in the last 16 with a win but will either team be keen to go for the win at risk of suffering defeat when a loss could be so detrimental?

Sweden managed to defy belief in their opening game against Spain that ended in a 0-0 draw as they enjoyed just 15% of possession. It perhaps more showed the profligacy of Spain's attack than the prowess of Sweden's defensive capabilities. Head coach Janne Andersson knows his team can take a big step towards the last 16 with a win here but will also be aware that if his team loses then they face a must-win clash with a dangerous Poland in their final group game. The squad are likely to welcome back key duo Dejan Kulusevski and Mattias Svanberg after they both returned negative covid-19 test results. Mikael Lustig could miss out through injury though. History does bring a warning though. Sweden have lost their second group game at their last four major international tournaments and they have now failed to score in their last three European Championship matches.

Slovakia probably surprised a lot of people with their 2-1 win over Poland. An own goal from Polish goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny and a goal that I mentioned might happen from centre back Milan Skriniar gave Stefan Tarkovic's side a key win in their opening game. Will that win on its own be enough? It may well be but they won't want to take a chance on it. A draw here would make a place in the last 16 even more likely. That win against Poland extended Slovakia's unbeaten run to 6 matches. Skriniar's goal was his 3rd in 4 matches for Slovakia so if you fancy an outside punt then it could be worth backing him to score again here.

In terms of head-to-head meetings, Sweden are unbeaten in their 5 encounters against Slovakia. The most recent meeting was a 1-1 draw back in October, 2018. However, Sweden did win 6-0 in the fixture before that in January, 2017. Sweden have kept three clean sheets in the last 4 meetings with Slovakia. I'm expecting a tentative game but think we'll see a more liberal Swedish set-up to the one we saw against Spain. Is this a game both teams feel they can win? I would say so. That doesn't mean we'll see an end-to-end encounter though because neither side is gifted with attacking quality.

Draw @ 3.45 with Sporting Index

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.62 with SportNation

[StefanBB]

Spain vs Poland

Although they dominated the game against Sweden, the hosts failed to pick up all three points. As a result, the game ended in a goalless draw, and La Furia Roja needs to search for a win in this one. Luis Enrique’s side hasn’t lost nine times in a row, but they were involved in many draws during that period. Nevertheless, Diego Llorente and the lads stabilized their backline as they managed to keep the clean sheet on the previous three occasions. However, Spain should start converting their chances into goals, as they failed to score two times in the last three matches. The home side can get very close to the top two if they celebrate a victory in this game.

Poland didn’t enjoy a positive start to the campaign, as they lost to Slovakia 2:1. Although they managed to equalize and were on the verge of turning things around, Grzegorz Krychowiak was sent off, which ruined their chances. Paulo Sousa’s side hasn’t tasted a win in the last four games, while their defensive work is quite concerning. Orly kept just one clean sheet on the previous eight occasions, which had a massive impact on their record. On the other hand, Robert Lewandowski doesn’t have enough support from his teammates and is not as dangerous for the oppositions’ goalkeepers as in Bayern Munich. A very tough task is ahead of Poland, but they won’t give up.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Spain shouldn’t let themselves mess up again, as they are firm favorites in this clash. We believe they will meet the expectations and also secure a halftime advantage.

Goals Market Prediction

Spain has tremendous attacking potential, while Poland hasn’t defended their goal very well recently. The visitors have been involved in many high-scoring matches lately, and we believe we can see at least three goals in this one.

Spain HT-FT @ 2.00 

Over 2.5 FT @ 1.80 

Correct score 3:1 @ 11.50

[peanut peanut]

2-1 Spain 17/2

2-1 Poland 28/1

[StevieDay1983]

Spain vs Poland

The final preview of this second round of group matches at the 2020 European Championship sees us return to Group E for this 8pm BST kick-off between Spain and Poland at La Cartuja in Seville. Both teams failed to register victories in their opening group games even though it can be argued that both sides were favourites to win heading into those matches. The pressure is now on for both of them to get those first 3 points here.

Spain enjoyed a staggering 85% possession in their 0-0 draw with Sweden. Head coach Luis Enrique will just have been delighted to field a reasonably strong side given the chaos a covid-19 outbreak has caused within the squad just days before the tournament started. It was a difficult one to judge in their first game with their undoubted dominance showing they remain a team to be wary of in this competition but their profligacy in front of goal and the occasional defensive fragility showed exactly why they have so many doubters. If Spain fail to win this game then it'll be the first time since the 1996 European Championship that they have failed to do so. Failure to score in 2 of their last 3 matches is a concern. Alvaro Morata has also failed to score in his last 4 appearances for his country.

Poland are still licking their wounds after that shock 2-1 loss against Slovakia. Yes, they did go down to 10-men when Grzegorz Krychowiak was sent off but it was still a result that they didn't see coming. Head coach Paulo Sousa knows that with Sweden coming up in their final group game they'll want to try to get a win here to give themselves a realistic chance of qualifying for the last 16. Unfortunately, history isn't on their side with Poland managing just 2 wins from their 12 matches played at a European Championship. In Robert Lewandowski, Poland boast one of the most clinical finishers in world football but the striker just doesn't have the same prowess at major tournament for his country only scoring 2 of his 35 shots.

On face value, it seems like this is a game for Spain to win. Despite their failure to score against Sweden they put in a commanding passing display breaking all sorts of records. Poland didn't quite look up to their best against Slovakia and I feel they're in danger of letting this tournament pass them by. I'm backing a narrow Spain win because even though they should dominate play there are still question marks on their final third clinical edge.

Poland AH +1.25 @ 2.07 with Novibet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.97 with SBK

[harry_rag]

On 6/14/2021 at 4:18 PM, harry_rag said:

The RP suggest Glik as Poland’s “card magnet” but there are 3 players who strike me as being more attractive (if you’ll excuse the pun). On the basis that one is enough for profit I’ve had 10 points each on these 3 to be carded.

Bednarek at 4/1 Betway

Klich at 19/4 Betway

Krychowiak at 4.6 on BF

Krychowiak obliged last time and is suspended as he went on to see red. Going in again on the other two. I’d have got better prices if I’d not gone in early.

18 points on Bednarek to be shown a card at 4.6 on BF

15 points on Klich to be shown a card at 4.7 on BF and buy his card minutes for 1 point at 14 with SPIN

12 points on Koke to assist a goal at 23/4 with Uni.

[StefanBB]

Slovakia vs Spain

Sokoli sit in 2^nd place on the table, but they still need to do a lot to secure a place in the eight-finals. The biggest challenge is ahead of them, as Slovakia needs to remain undefeated in this game. Stefan Tarkovic’s side had an excellent start to the campaign, as they celebrated a vital 2:1 victory over Poland. However, they had massive help from their rivals, as they scored an own goal and were outnumbered in the last 30 minutes of the game. Unfortunately for them, Marek Hamsik and the lads didn’t pick up anything against Sweden, as the late penalty kick cost them a defeat. It was their first loss after six straight games, and Slovakia would like to get back on the upbeat track. However, the most challenging opponent is ahead of them, who also desperately needs points to proceed further.

Spain has been quite disappointing so far, as they still haven’t celebrated a win. They wasted tons of chances against Sweden in a goalless draw. Luis Enrique’s side didn’t manage to beat Poland as well, despite having a penalty kick awarded at 1:1. Gerard Moreno hit the post, and it is still unexplainable how Alvaro Morata missed that sitter. The result didn’t change, and La Furia Roja remained 3^rd on the table with only two points. Spain plays in front of its fans again, and they don’t have the right for more mistakes, as it would mean their elimination from EURO 2020. Despite being defensively solid, the hosts haven’t been clinical in front of the oppositions’ net lately. Spain needs to go for a victory if they want to continue the pursuit of the title.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

The home side is a firm favorite in this one, and everything except their win would be shocking. However, backing Slovakia on the Asian Handicap market might bring more value, as the odds on Spain are very slim. It is not going to be an easy game for the hosts, and we don’t believe Slovakia will lose by more than two goals.

Goals Market Prediction

Neither side has been involved in many high-scoring matches lately. Slovakia will be focused primarily on defending its net, while Spain needs to attack from the very start. Since the hosts were pretty wasteful so far, we will take a risk and go with the Under 2.5 pick for the goals market.

Slovakia AH +2.25 @ 1.60

Under 2.5 FT @ 2.20 

Correct score 0:2 @ 6.00

[StefanBB]

Sweden vs Poland

Sweden enjoyed a perfect form in the build-up of EURO 2020, and they managed to continue in the same fashion. They fought for a goalless draw against Spain while beating Slovakia 1:0 thanks to Emil Forsberg’s successfully converted penalty kick. No matter what happens in this match, Janne Andersson’s side will continue the campaign. It is questionable only from which position in the group stage. Sweden celebrated in six out of their last seven games, having an excellent defensive record. They still haven’t conceded in this tournament, allowing just one goal on the previous seven occasions. Although their opponents prior to EURO 2020 haven’t been that challenging, that excellent streak positively impacted Swedish players. Sweden wants to keep up where they left off and remain unbeaten in this competition.

Poland has its last chance to remain in the tournament, and only a victory can keep them alive. They ruined the opportunity to start with a win after losing to Slovakia in the opening round. However, Orły improved their game against Spain and held them to a 1:1 draw. Despite being at the bottom of the group standings, Paulo Sousa’s side could secure a top-two finish if they win this match. Nevertheless, Poland needs to improve its defending to succeed in this quest. They managed to keep the clean sheet just once on the previous nine occasions, and a leaky defense cost them several victories. Robert Lewandowski scored against Spain, and that might be a massive boost of confidence for the star striker. Poland has nothing t wait for, and they should go straight to picking up a win.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Sweden is keen on continuing its unbeatable run, while Poland desperately needs a victory. Orly might push much harder for a win, and they could eventually deliver it.

Goals Market Prediction

Although Sweden has been very disciplined in the back, Poland scored in their last eight matches. On the other hand, Orly’s defense is very leaky, and we don’t believe either side will keep its net intact.

Poland to Win @ 2.55 

BTTS Yes @ 1.90 

Correct score 1:2 @ 10.00

[StevieDay1983]

Slovakia vs Spain

The final day of the group phase of the 2020 European Championship hits us on Wednesday and we have Group E as the centre of attention at 5pm BST. The one game from the group taking place is the encounter between Slovakia and Spain at La Cartuja in Seville. There is so much that could happen in this group yet with qualification and elimination still a prospect for three of the teams in this group.

Slovakia come into this game knowing they will be eliminated from the tournament if they fail to take a point here. I think, if I understand the rules correctly, they could still qualify provided they lose by 1 goal but score more than 2 goals and if Poland fail to beat Sweden. So yeah, the possibility looks remote if they don't get at least a draw here so we can anticipate what tactic head coach Stefan Tarkovic will adopt here. It's been a mixed bag for Slovakia so far with the impressive 2-1 win over Poland being followed by a disappointing 1-0 loss to Sweden. The fact they had 10 shots on goal with none on target shows where they need to improve if they're to stand any chance of taking something from this game. Tarkovic still maintains a decent record as national team gaffer with just 2 losses in 11 games so they shouldn't be under-estimated.

Spain have not quite hit the levels they would have expected so far in this tournament. Even though they were written off before the tournament started I think most of us would have anticipated they'd have taken 3 points in at least one of their games so far against Sweden and Poland but both have ended in draws. If you look at the statistics though they were both performances that probably deserved more so is criticism of the team unwarranted? A draw would be enough to see Spain through as a best placed third team provided Poland fail to beat Sweden. Will Luis Enrique want his team to sit back and hope for that result in the other game or will they look to take the game to Slovakia with hope of trying to snatch that top spot from Sweden?

Head-to-head meetings doesn't make for very positive reading for Slovakia with Spain losing just 1 of the last 6 meetings. That solitary win for Slovakia coming back in October, 2014. Spain have prevailed victorious in all 3 of their encounters with Slovakia at home. I have to say that it feels Spain are a predatory goalscorer away from doing some serious damage at this tournament. Their general play has been encouraging but they are left wanting in the final third. I think they will get a commanding win here and we could well see Slovakia crash out.

Spain to Win to Nil @ 1.76 with RedZone

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.74 with SBK

[StevieDay1983]

Sweden vs Poland

The second game taking place in Group E at 5pm BST on Wednesday afternoon is the clash between group leaders Sweden and the group's bottom-placed side Poland at the Krestovsky Stadium in St Petersburg. The Swedes have already guaranteed their place in the last 16 and a win would secure a tie with 3rd place from Group B, C, or D. The Poles know nothing less than a win will do if they want to have any chance to reaching the next phase.

Sweden have surprised many with their start to this tournament. I think quite a few people, myself included, thought they would be battling with Slovakia for that 3rd placed position. Head coach Janne Andersson saw his team cope with unrelenting pressure against Spain in that first game to somehow earn a 0-0 draw and then they built on that point with a well-fought 1-0 win over Slovakia. Two clean sheets from their first two group games will have pleased the fans. Incredibly, 88% of Sweden's goals scored at European Championships have come in the second half.

Poland know the pressure is on to win. A victory could potentially see them move top of the group if they score enough goals and there is a draw between Slovakia and Spain. Can someone do the maths on that please? Head coach Paulo Sousa will be disappointed with his team's results thus far. The opening game 2-1 loss to Slovakia was a shock but the 1-1 draw with Spain was a credible result but on another day might have been a game they could have smash and grabbed. It leaves them needing a win here. Striker Robert Lewandowski will need to build on that goal against Spain to give his nation a chance. He has bagged 10 goals in his last 12 starts for his country. Unfortunately, Poland are out-of-form right now having won just 1 of their last 9 matches in all competitions.

This is one of the toughest games to predict yet in the group stages. Sweden have surprised me with how dangerous they have looked but they also have moments of fragility that let them down. Poland are exactly the same but those fragile moments have come at a larger frequency. I can see both teams drawing here. Sweden will adopt a cautious approach because they have nothing to lose. Even finishing 2nd delivers a last 16 tie with an out-of-sorts Croatia. Poland could see their desperation be their weakness as their enthusiasm to win could leave gaps at the back to be exploited.

Draw @ 3.53 with VBet

BTTS @ 1.95 with SportNation

[harry_rag]

3 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

 I can see both teams drawing here.

I expect you’d get generous odds on only one of them doing so! 

[peanut peanut]

2-1 Slovakia 40-1

2-1 Spain 10/1

2-1 Sweden 10/1

2-1 Poland 10/1

[StevieDay1983]

13 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I expect you’d get generous odds on only one of them doing so! 

Well, I've seen Wales reach a semi-finals at a major football tournament and Cardiff reach the FA Cup Final. I will believe anything can happen in football these days!  Proper Colemanballs moment from me there!

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Spain have not quite hit the levels they would have expected so far in this tournament. Even though they were written off before the tournament started I think most of us would have anticipated they'd have taken 3 points in at least one of their games so far against Sweden and Poland but both have ended in draws. If you look at the statistics though they were both performances that probably deserved more so is criticism of the team unwarranted? A draw would be enough to see Spain through as a best placed third team provided Poland fail to beat Sweden. Will Luis Enrique want his team to sit back and hope for that result in the other game or will they look to take the game to Slovakia with hope of trying to snatch that top spot from Sweden?

Surely Spain turn up tonight, get the win they need and, perhaps, the return they deserve according to all the metrics (I'm sure I heard they had the highest XG rating from the first 2 rounds of matches).

I fancy a comfortable Spain victory but so do the various markets. I can see them racking up a lot of corners. >7.5 being cut from 11/10 to evens was enough to put me off an interest in that and the spreads are high enough to close down that avenue. I've gone for an interest in the assist market on a player who looks more likely than most to get one in the 5:00 games.

15 points on Olmo to get an assist at 7/2 and 2 (free bet) on him to get 2 or more at 28/1, both with Hills.

 

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Poland could see their desperation be their weakness as their enthusiasm to win could leave gaps at the back to be exploited.

And could lead to them picking up a fair few cards (though that's coming from someone who foresaw a cardfest in the Scotland game last night which didn't play out as hoped). I'd be sticking with my 3 amigos assuming I can get matched.

Krychowiak: I won on him to be carded in the first game when he got sent off after a second yellow; looks short enough tonight unless I get matched on BF

Bednarek: Backable at 4/1 with 365, had the 2.5 points allowed and will see if I can top up on the exchange. Not booked so far.

Klich: Had 2 points on the 9/2 with 365, bought his card minutes for 1.5 points at 13 with SPIN, may try and top up a little on the exchange. Booked in the previous game.

Results wise it could go either way but I see Sweden as the more likely winners. Current form and past fragilities suggests to me that a must win final game scenario is not the optimum one to get a great performance out of Poland.