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Wimbledon 2021


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On 7/6/2021 at 5:00 PM, bet4fun said:

you think federer will lose to him.. federer is reaching the finals minimum with the crowd behind him. also the organizers wanted federer-novak final. i think federer is being underestimated by many. he has stepped up his game in the last match

😲

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, this is it, then! Essentially impossible to see Djokovic losing now.

not quite bro! Hurkacz's game is typically grass and he really mixes it up well. No doubt Djokovic should win. On the other hand it is not impossible for Djokovic to be beaten.

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Posted (edited)

What about over 40games i Hurkacz and Berenttini match ?

Maybe Hubi will not win but for me he have chance to make higher problem than Aliassime ?

 

Edited by Teodore
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Well this is what I got for the Friday matches.

Match Result and Total Games - Matteo Berrettini - Over 38.5 Games at 2.75 with bet365

I also like this one for tomorrow (WTA Hamburg)

Krystina Pliskova (+5.5 Games) to beat Zidansek at 1.66 with bet365

I'm too tired to make a post explaining why I like them... maybe tomorrow I will.

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Posted (edited)

What a strange men's Wimbledon it has been. If you said that both Medvedev and Rublev would fall in the 4th round to Hurkacz and Fucsovics I would have laughed in your face. Fucsovics looked so limited against Djoko. How can he win the last two sets against Rublev, 6-0 6-3?

But in a crazy way, the 4 men in the semi's are the 4 best players left. Djoko really has had an easy run, but if he can beat two in form players in Shapavalov and Berrentini back to back he deserves it.  Will Shapa feel the effects of a 5 setter?

For me a Djoko v Berrettini final, though Shapa will go close. He is only 22, in the absolute prime of his life, and looks to have matured considerably. No easy customer. For me Berrettini has just floated along on a ridiculously good serve. I can't see Hurkacz getting past him.

One thing going in the favor of Shapavalov and Berrentinni is that they are both so new to this stage of a major. They have no previous history (ie. Fed or Djoko has beaten me 7 times at this stage), and they have that incredible bullet-proof vibe that comes with youth.

Edited by neilovan
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8 hours ago, 38sdk1 said:

What makes you say that after Wednesday’s matches? I would have pretty much said before Wednesday that only Berrettini could possibly beat Djokovic, and I don’t see anything that happened on quarter-final day that would change that assessment?

The windy conditions were a bit much though, I think the roof(s) should be closed if it’s as windy as that.

Fucsovics had a chance to at least trouble him and I also expected to see a bit more from Shapovalov. Obviously he was a big favorite before then, but I now feel even stronger than before. Unless Berrettini serves out of his mind, I don't see him dropping more than two sets from now on. Hurkacz did well against Federer, but he wasn't tested at all, Roger was just poor.

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Fucsovics had a chance to at least trouble him and I also expected to see a bit more from Shapovalov. Obviously he was a big favorite before then, but I now feel even stronger than before. Unless Berrettini serves out of his mind, I don't see him dropping more than two sets from now on. Hurkacz did well against Federer, but he wasn't tested at all, Roger was just poor.

I really don't think Djok has been playing particularly well. Opponents have been average at best. They all looked a little scared, playing the man rather than the opponent. I thought Anderson might bring some game, but he looks to be heading the same way as Murray and Fed. Maybe it's the center court camera angle (Aussie open has the best center court camera angle/coverage. Framed fantastically well), but it seems they are not hitting the ball that hard.

Shapavalov and Berretinni will be his two toughest challenges. Berrettini is just ridiculously good behind his serve. He is able to serve himself outta trouble over and over again, something tha Djoko is pretty good at too.

My betting is somewhat skewed because I just don't like Djokovic !

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, bookiebasher said:

Anyone else on Kerber today ?

I look at Barty's game and I just can't figure out how she wins. Serve not particularly good, ground strokes OK, backhand slice a little weak, 6/10 in terms of movement. So nothing special. But she is winning so how the hell is she doing it?

My feeling is she has a very good tennis IQ... makes the right decisions more often than not, and will simply not beat herself.

This is a strangely one dimensional matchup. Neither player has a serve of note, they don't move forward particularly well, and like to camp out on the baseline. In my opinion, she who brings the other forward and dominates those exchanges will win. Two very similar games, but Barty should prevail, beating Kerber at her own game. 

In the other matchup Sabalenka wins easily. Good mover, probably the biggest serve in woman's tennis, playing 1st strike tennis. I think she dominates Pliskova totally.

Typical winter day in JHB. Sunny, 21 degrees. Gonna miss the 1st match. Off to play tennis at 4pm. Play at the Wanderers (11 flood lite courts), 10 minutes away. Ah, life is good!

Edited by neilovan
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Barty also rarely chokes or goes missing mentally, which is kinda a big deal on the WTA circuit.

are u sure about what u said.. because i recollect atleast 4-5 occurences where she was favorite to win it and almost choked in semis. I remember her choking a lot in semis. if she goes to the finals she will win it. Pliskova is never a threat and think after getting beaten by sabalenka so many time she understands her game better now

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2 hours ago, neilovan said:

I look at Barty's game and I just can't figure out how she wins. Serve not particularly good, ground strokes OK, backhand slice a little weak, 6/10 in terms of movement. So nothing special. But she is winning so how the hell is she doing it?

My feeling is she has a very good tennis IQ... makes the right decisions more often than not, and will simply not beat herself.

This is a strangely one dimensional matchup. Neither player has a serve of note, they don't move forward particularly well, and like to camp out on the baseline. In my opinion, she who brings the other forward and dominates those exchanges will win. Two very similar games, but Barty should prevail, beating Kerber at her own game. 

In the other matchup Sabalenka wins easily. Good mover, probably the biggest serve in woman's tennis, playing 1st strike tennis. I think she dominates Pliskova totally.

Typical winter day in JHB. Sunny, 21 degrees. Gonna miss the 1st match. Off to play tennis at 4pm. Play at the Wanderers (11 flood lite courts), 10 minutes away. Ah, life is good!

she is lucky and she is the giannis aneutokoump of tennis world.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, darko08 said:

Well this is what I got for the Friday matches.

Match Result and Total Games - Matteo Berrettini - Over 38.5 Games at 2.75 with bet365

I also like this one for tomorrow (WTA Hamburg)

Krystina Pliskova (+5.5 Games) to beat Zidansek at 1.66 with bet365

I'm too tired to make a post explaining why I like them... maybe tomorrow I will.

Well, Kristyna (3-6, 6-3, 3-6) covers easily that ridiculous line that was clearly influenced by Zidansek result in the FO. 4th straight bet won after a short bad streak. I'm done with Wimbledon women's matches so I just focus on the men's SFs. 

I'm not going to bet on Berrettini at 1.40 so I finally opted for this one at bigger odds. Nothing much to say. Both players have proved how adapted to the surface they are but I think Berrettini is slightly better right now. Both players' stats on serve have been impressive but I think Berrettini has been a little bit better in that aspect (especially during the crucial points) and this can make the difference. These players have played twice before but both were on hard courts. The 1st one was in 2018 (qualification for the AO) and the Berrettini took that one in 2 sets. The 2nd one took place in 2019 (Miami Masters) and the pole won that one in 2 sets. Undoubtedly, Hubi loves the Miami conditions cause there is where he has showed his best tennis ever. Berrettini's record on grass is much more impressive and I think he enjoys the surface a little bit more than Hurkacz does. I take Berrettini and I'm hoping to see a 4 or 5 sets match to cover the over games.

Edited by darko08
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To me the best bet moving forward is to bet both men's underdogs in the semis.  Hurkacz is about 2:1 and is playing well enough to make it worth it.

 

Now my favorite bet is Shapovalov to beat Djok at 7:1.  Why?  Well Djok hasn't been tested yet and if you watch carefully his favorite neutralizing shot is the 2-handed cross-court backhand which against a lefty isn't going to work because it falls straight to the forehand!  Shapo has an incredible forehand and while his backhand is a one-hander if he is on point he can fire back some rockets and really make it happen.  Of course I think Djok will win but 7:1 justifies this as a reasonable +EV bet in my mind.

 

Thoughts?

 

MDLP

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

I like Berrettini quite a lot honestly, he's way more steady than Hurkacz, has at least that bit of star quality.

Me too!  But as far as betting goes would you lay 2.5:1?  I wouldn't.  The likely result is berretini v novak in the final and it's very easy to say that and be right often.  But the value isn't on betting those guys is it?

 

MDLP

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Berrettini impressed me this season, no weak points in his game overall. I would say only mental side is the one he has to work on. That was seen in final against Zverev (Madrid as I remember), where he was playing great, but he was still far from winning that match. No matter Fedex made many mistakes yesterday, his UE/winners ratio was good anyway, also 70% on net points won. Even with his best game this would be very close.

Odds: 3.00 on Hurkacz, and if we compare HC line is like +3.5 games at even odds, and totals at 40.5 games! Should be like  +5.5 and over 36.5 in my opinion. If you player over, he must win a set to won it. Definitely no value here for me, only if you go for higher HC line. Nice combination is Hurkacz, Hubert To Win + Total Games Over 35.5 @3.86. Berrettini should lost at least set in best case, but I think Hurkacz has chance here. 

 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, neilovan said:

I look at Barty's game and I just can't figure out how she wins. Serve not particularly good, ground strokes OK, backhand slice a little weak, 6/10 in terms of movement. So nothing special. But she is winning so how the hell is she doing it?

My feeling is she has a very good tennis IQ... makes the right decisions more often than not, and will simply not beat herself.

This is a strangely one dimensional matchup. Neither player has a serve of note, they don't move forward particularly well, and like to camp out on the baseline. In my opinion, she who brings the other forward and dominates those exchanges will win. Two very similar games, but Barty should prevail, beating Kerber at her own game. 

In the other matchup Sabalenka wins easily. Good mover, probably the biggest serve in woman's tennis, playing 1st strike tennis. I think she dominates Pliskova totally.

Typical winter day in JHB. Sunny, 21 degrees. Gonna miss the 1st match. Off to play tennis at 4pm. Play at the Wanderers (11 flood lite courts), 10 minutes away. Ah, life is good!

''Serve not particularly good?'' Who are you even comparing her too, Berrettini? Sampras? Serena? 8 aces today (to Kerber's zero) and a 1st points won of 88%.  

I watched both matches live (at center court) today. Ash deservedly won, by playing an outstanding all-round game. Kerber played well also btw, but Barty was just too good for too much of the match. Kerber had to work sooo hard to win points off Ash. 

Sabalenka on the other hand... has a very big serve, as you mentioned. That's kind of it though. She can't control a rally. She doesn't move well, and today she got massively outplayed, and didn't have an answer. Why? Because her game is built around keeping points as short as possible. When a point goes over 3 shots she can't really compete because she either over-hits, or the ball gets smashed into the net. 

it's fair to also say, this is as good as I've ever seen Karolina Pliskova play.

Edited by AgaRadwanska
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7 hours ago, bet4fun said:

she is lucky and she is the giannis aneutokoump of tennis world.

some (all) of your takes are genuinely horrific.

she's the world number one for a reason. Luck didn't get her there. Graft did, and is why she'll be a multiple GS winner before long. I suppose she got lucky today too? 

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Posted (edited)
On 7/5/2021 at 12:57 PM, liquidglass said:

Thank you my friend, for some strange reason I suddenly changed my mind from Swiatek and went really large on Jabeur after reading your response. It just had the effect of bringing me back to reality. One virtual shot of Jack Danielsu and coke for you bro. lol!

So glad that you followed my advice on Jabeur and that she is playing better than her opponent on grass. I just felt she had the better form on the surface 

Edited by owenclass
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Posted (edited)

It happens quite often that Swiatek loses sets to 0 or 1 , maybe that's why she travels with a psychologist?

 To lose to Jabeur or Kasatkina was possible, but not in such a clear way.
And btw at Eastbourne and Wimbledon, her coach was absent.

Edited by lelit
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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, neilovan said:

I look at Barty's game and I just can't figure out how she wins. Serve not particularly good, ground strokes OK, backhand slice a little weak, 6/10 in terms of movement. So nothing special. But she is winning so how the hell is she doing it?

My feeling is she has a very good tennis IQ... makes the right decisions more often than not, and will simply not beat herself.

This is a strangely one dimensional matchup. Neither player has a serve of note, they don't move forward particularly well, and like to camp out on the baseline. In my opinion, she who brings the other forward and dominates those exchanges will win. Two very similar games, but Barty should prevail, beating Kerber at her own game. 

In the other matchup Sabalenka wins easily. Good mover, probably the biggest serve in woman's tennis, playing 1st strike tennis. I think she dominates Pliskova totally.

Typical winter day in JHB. Sunny, 21 degrees. Gonna miss the 1st match. Off to play tennis at 4pm. Play at the Wanderers (11 flood lite courts), 10 minutes away. Ah, life is good!

I was so wrong on the Sabalenka match. Maybe I based it on her match against Rybakina. But she was hideous in the 2nd and 3rd set. Lost her balance, composure and the ability to hit the ball. Running around like a headless chicken. The no challenge  at 30-15 final game is just beyond belief. Even if it's a meter out, challenge, recover, find your composure, and go again on the match point. Damn match cost me a huge win, but my fault for betting on woman's tennis.

Would any of the woman players today be able to live with Henin, Kliejsters, Graff, Serena (from 10 years ago), Hingis or Seles? Those past champs would wipe the floor with the current crop. Seles would have slaughtered the field...

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I was so wrong on the Sabalenka match. Maybe I based it on her match against Rybakina. But she was hideous in the 2nd and 3rd set. Lost her balance, composure and the ability to hit the ball. Running around like a headless chicken. The no challenge  at 30-15 final game is just beyond belief. Even if it's a meter out, challenge, recover, find your composure, and go again on the match point. Damn match cost me a huge win, but my fault for betting on woman's tennis.

Would any of the woman players today be able to live with Henin, Kliejsters, Graff, Serena (from 10 years ago), Hingis or Seles? Those past champs would wipe the floor with the current crop. Seles would have slaughtered the field...

It's tough. We look at their H2Hs, and recent performances stick in our minds (KP's 6-0 6-0 double-bagel defeat at Rome for one). I did also think Sabalenka would win this one, albeit in a closer match. 

Sabalenka served well for most of the match and did actually save 8/10 BPs, but otherwise looked stuck for answers vs. Pliskova's serve. She just couldn't return the ball. KP was calmness personified, and didn't make costly errors. It could and perhaps should have been 2-0 Pliskova though, which the number of chances to break that she had. Sabalenka created just one break point across the 3 sets!

The problem with comparing the ''Legends'' of women's tennis to today's top 10 crop is that you're thinking of them in their absolute prime, vs. current players who aren't necessarily in their prime right now. Coco Gauff has a very, very high ceiling, as does Iga Swiatek. They're 17 and 20 respectively. Barty is an incredible player and is only 25. Osaka (23) and Halep are great players, but are not currently at their best for obvious reasons.

imo today the overall skill level is a lot more evened out across the top 20-30 players than 15+ years ago, meaning that we do tend to see a lot of different players running deep in Grand Slams/winning silverware. There's no one player in the women's game who's absolutely crushing and winning 3-4 grand slams each year like Serena, Venus, Graff, Seles, Martina etc once did. Maybe in a few years someone will emerge and be that crusher, but who knows. 

Edited by AgaRadwanska
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