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Wimbledon 2021


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Ludmilla Samsonova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.96 with Pinnacle

Samsonova is 10-0 on grass in this season and she's flying. Pliskova is a big name, true, but she's been suspect for quite some time now and her woes against players like Pegula this year tell a story. If her serve has an off-day, she's absolutely awful, as her return game and defensive skills just aren't there. Based on those, she would never be ranked as high as she once was. At the odds, I much prefer the player that's in form and whose ceiling might very well be higher (we'll have to wait and see).

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Posted (edited)

Ludmilla Samsonova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.96 with Pinnacle

Samsonova is 10-0 on grass in this season and she's flying. Pliskova is a big name, true, but she's been suspect for quite some time now and her woes against players like Pegula this year tell a story. If her serve has an off-day, she's absolutely awful, as her return game and defensive skills just aren't there. Based on those, she would never be ranked as high as she once was. At the odds, I much prefer the player that's in form and whose ceiling might very well be higher (we'll have to wait and see).

 

 

I like this bet as Pliskova can be hit or miss on the grass and i dont see anything different in her game which convinces me that she will go further in this tournament. What do you think of these other bets

 

Ons Jabeur to beat Iga Swiatek 11/10 paddy power

Elena Rybakina to beat Aryna Sabalenka 7/4 paddy power

 

I feel these two players have a better grass game than their opponents and are in better form especially Rybakina who had a great French Open and she will be facing an opponent who has still not reached a Grand slam quarter final while Jabeur is playing great on grass and won a title on this surface a few weeks ago and will be facing an opponent who has still not convinced me that she plays her best on grass even though she won the girls title at Wimbledon a few years ago

Edited by owenclass
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49 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Ludmilla Samsonova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.96 with Pinnacle

Samsonova is 10-0 on grass in this season and she's flying. Pliskova is a big name, true, but she's been suspect for quite some time now and her woes against players like Pegula this year tell a story. If her serve has an off-day, she's absolutely awful, as her return game and defensive skills just aren't there. Based on those, she would never be ranked as high as she once was. At the odds, I much prefer the player that's in form and whose ceiling might very well be higher (we'll have to wait and see).

I think this can be a time for discussion and some deep reasoning just before the Monday matches kick off. I like your pick here and it must be pointed out that there is sufficient reason available to back and promote the chances of any of these ladies. If we look at Samonova vs Pliskova objectively we will find a few pointers that could help lead us to safety but certainly with no certainty. Both women have potent serves and I feel that it is Samsonova who has the more stability in her game when it comes to the groundstrokes department. She definitely will be the more consistent from the back of the court no doubt. Then again, I wish this was the only criteria needed to try and figure out the outcome of this match. After all has been said, I just feel that Samsonova has peaked a shade too early leaving her exposed in the same way that Ostapenko was. Pliskova is quite fresh with light miles on the clock from her constant losses and may just be entering the kind of form that wins tournaments. In a couple of strides with those long legs she can hit the front turning for home just like Mr Bolt. Tennis afficionados will look at Pliskova and say "And she still has not dropped a set". If you are still watching Samsonova closely, it is certainly becoming increasingly difficult for her with two three-setters in her last 2 matches. She had to labour to victory against Stephens. It is mostly only after a match that we tend to see all these things. Sensibly, the bet should be Pliskova or no bet. If we all did not know anything about what has happened in the WTA season so far and we were just given the list of the women left with a chance to win wimbledon from here in, it will be a big mistake not to put Pliskova's name on that list. So I am really not looking for the better player form-wise at this point, I think all that goes through the window as the knock out rounds start. I really think Rybakina, Jabeur and Pliskova hold live chances. Rybakina more so who only needs to tweak her attitude a bit to arrive at a winners mentality.

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Posted (edited)

Karen Khachanov to beat Sebastian Korda at 1.90 with bet365

Both players are great, Korda is having amazing two seasons (4R at RG 2020; final at Delaney Beach 2021;title in Parma 2021 and now 4R at Wimbledon) at the same time Khachanov shows some positive signs since the start of the season ( semi-finalist in Lyon, beating Gasquet in the quarter-finals; quarter-finalist in Rotterdam earlier this season, beating Wawrinka in first round and winning a set against Tsitsipas in the quarter-finals). For sure 2019 and 2020 were tough for Karen but this season he is playing better.

Both of the players are aggressive baseliners who depend very much on their serve. Against Dan Evans Korda showed that he is not only powerful but also very mobile player. He used serve and volley tactic a lot and also won many net points but I think all this happened because of Dan Evans’s style of playing. Evans love to put some variety in his game and to make his opponents confused and out of their safe zone. 

Khachanov is not Dan Evans’s type of player. Karen prefer aggressive ball exchange from the baselanes. So I believe that Korda will be okay to do these long and exhausting exchanges believing he is in his safe zone, playing his style. But not many players have the abilities to win against Khachanov playing this style of game. regardless of the fact that Korda is very talented young player I think he doesn’t have enough experience and big matches under his belt to beat Khachanov on grass.

Edited by teodorppv
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Posted (edited)

Swiatek to beat Jabeur with at 1.72 with bet365

Swiatek said that she had no expectations for this grass season which obviously was a tactic to remain out of the radar in Wimbledon, and it seems it's working. She only played a couple of matches in Eastbourne, beating Watson and losing against Kasatkina. Here, she has destroyed Hsieh (6-4, 6-4), Zvonareva (6-1, 6-3) and Begu (6-1, 6-0). Jabeur is playing incredibly well, but I'm seeing a lot of similarities between her and Ostapenko. Both players had a lot of success on her preparation tournaments. Jabeur won in Birmingham while Ostapenko won in Eastbourne. Ostapenko destroyed Leylah but then she had a hard battle against Kasatkina (6-1, 3-6, 8-6), and it definitely took its toll on her. She was beating easily Tomljanovic but at the end of the second set her body and her mind said "enough". Jabeur had a hard battle against Muguruza and she even threw up before closing the match. I think Jabeur can follow the same steps than Ostapenko. She can be mentally and physically exhausted after that match. That's something I have seen several times on this sport ("after a big victory comes a big defeat"). These players only have played once before (Washington 2019) and the pole won. I think Swiatek still has a lot to give here, mentally and physically, and that's why I pick her for this match. She will be the fresher player.

Edited by darko08
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Posted (edited)

Raducanu vs Tomljanovic

I would want to believe that I have taken enough time to watch Raducanu to know where to place her current level. Tomljanovic is just a different variety of the same level of opposition that Raducanu has already conquered. I really cannot think of any potent weapon that Tomljanovic has in her arsenal that could do significant damage to this massive British talent. She just knows how to get herself into rallies with that old school chipped return of serve. Her change of pace and racket head acceleration during rallies is so mesmerizingly breath-taking. Provided the reality of what she is trying to accomplish does not consume her, I see her coming out victorious again. Especially now that she is becoming more popular, I just see the home support being too heavy for Tomljanovic to handle . Raducanu is also very vocal and pumped up during play and could severely distract her opponent with those in-play celebrations. Raducanu to continue her run alongside the English football team.

 

Edited by liquidglass
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, darko08 said:

Swiatek to beat Jabeur with at 1.72 with bet365

Swiatek said that she had no expectations for this grass season which obviously was a tactic to remain out of the radar in Wimbledon, and it seems it's working. She only played a couple of matches in Eastbourne, beating Watson and losing against Kasatkina. Here, she has destroyed Hsieh (6-4, 6-4), Zvonareva (6-1, 6-3) and Begu (6-1, 6-0). Jabeur is playing incredibly well, but I'm seeing a lot of similarities between her and Ostapenko. Both players had a lot of success on her preparation tournaments. Jabeur won in Birmingham while Ostapenko won in Eastbourne. Ostapenko destroyed Leylah but then she had a hard battle against Kasatkina (6-1, 3-6, 8-6), and it definitely took its toll on her. She was beating easily Tomljanovic but at the end of the second set her body and her mind said "enough". Jabeur had a hard battle against Muguruza and she even threw up before closing the match. I think Jabeur can follow the same steps than Ostapenko. She can be mentally and physically exhausted after that match. That's something I have seen several times on this sport ("after a big victory comes a big defeat"). These players only have played once before (Washington 2019) and the pole won. I think Swiatek still has a lot to give here, mentally and physically, and that's why I pick her for this match. She will be the fresher player.

You have got to remember that Jabeur beat Muguruza who is a former Wimbledon champion from losing the first set which means she has that fighting spirit that you need to win these big matches which probably why she threw up before closing the match. It wlll be tough against her opponent. But Jabeur does have better form on the grass while her opponent has not played a top player at this tournament yet. Also her opponent did struggle against Watson at Eastbourne and grass is not her favourite surface. So the match could go either way

image.png

Edited by owenclass
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2 hours ago, owenclass said:

You have got to remember that Jabeur beat Muguruza who is a former Wimbledon champion from losing the first set which means she has that fighting spirit that you need to win these big matches which probably why she threw up before closing the match. It wlll be tough against her opponent. But Jabeur does have better form on the grass while her opponent has not played a top player at this tournament yet. Also her opponent did struggle against Watson at Eastbourne and grass is not her favourite surface. So the match could go either way

image.png

At this point of the tournament all the players remaining are completely adapted to the surface. I'm not surprised that she beat Muguruza. As I said on a previous post, this match was really hard to predict cause they only played once before (2020) and that was really tight (6-3, 3-6, 7-6). Muguruza started the year really well but her last 2 months have been really disappointing. During January-February-March she reached 3 Finals (Yarra Valley Classic, Doha and Dubai) and the level she showed in the AO was brutal. She was the only player who was close to beat Osaka (in fact, she had 2 match points!). Now, take a look at what she has done since April. Nothing, nada! She even lost in the 1st round of the FO. I had some kind of hope that she could do something big in Wimbledon cause she started well but I'm really disappointed. Since she took the 1st set she played too conservative and her mobility was not good and Jabeur took advantage of that. She wasn't good with the serve either. I guess we disagree on the consequences of that hard battle. IMO, this will go against her cause this kind of matches take a lot of energy off the players, physically and mentally. As you said, Swiatek hasn't been tested yet and she has won easily all her matches here without dropping a single set. I guess we also disagree on the consequences of this. I think it benefits Swiatek cause she will be fresher and she still has a lot to give. I don't care about how she did in Eastbourne cause it was just a preparation tournament and a lot of players don't want to play too many matches the week before a GS. I will give you an interesting fact, Swiatek won RG 2020 after losing in the 1st round in Rome. As I said, Jabeur took advantage of Muguruza's passivity and bad mobility but now she will face a better mover, one of the fastest players on tour (and we know how important is this when the opponent is Jabeur). It will be a nice battle, for sure!

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10 hours ago, owenclass said:

You have got to remember that Jabeur beat Muguruza who is a former Wimbledon champion from losing the first set which means she has that fighting spirit that you need to win these big matches which probably why she threw up before closing the match. It wlll be tough against her opponent. But Jabeur does have better form on the grass while her opponent has not played a top player at this tournament yet. Also her opponent did struggle against Watson at Eastbourne and grass is not her favourite surface. So the match could go either way

image.png

Betting on two-way outcomes is about picking one outcome so thinking "this can go either way" doesn't give you any award for being good at picking correct outcomes.

Now it's not possible for a match to go either way when the match is over because then the match has not gone both ways so either way is just something you're saying because you're not feeling confident in Swiatek.

Or is either way some way for you to issue a warning that Swiatek can slip if it's wet on the grass?

Being unspecific about how a match can go by saying it can go either way doesn't help me or anyone. It only makes people like me annoyed and then you could have skipped the quote.

Usually a match in tennis goes the way of the player that gets in front by asking most questions in the long run. In this case I think this can be very demanding for O Jabeur as Iga will frequently be the one who asks the questions. Either way this goes the way of whoever runs more than the other and by knowing how Iga usually plays I can see it being her doing the running which makes it likely that O Jabeur is at a disadvantage in my analysis because of that.

Iga does have that small advantage but it remains to be seen if she can make that count and if not it's because O Jabeur will have good shotplacement.

Go Iga!

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Swiatek and Jabeur have trained together many times, so they know their opponent's game well. I wonder what tactical plan will come up by Iga's coach and how he will pass it on; he is currently in Poland.

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20 hours ago, owenclass said:

Ludmilla Samsonova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.96 with Pinnacle

Samsonova is 10-0 on grass in this season and she's flying. Pliskova is a big name, true, but she's been suspect for quite some time now and her woes against players like Pegula this year tell a story. If her serve has an off-day, she's absolutely awful, as her return game and defensive skills just aren't there. Based on those, she would never be ranked as high as she once was. At the odds, I much prefer the player that's in form and whose ceiling might very well be higher (we'll have to wait and see).

 

 

I like this bet as Pliskova can be hit or miss on the grass and i dont see anything different in her game which convinces me that she will go further in this tournament. What do you think of these other bets

 

Ons Jabeur to beat Iga Swiatek 11/10 paddy power

Elena Rybakina to beat Aryna Sabalenka 7/4 paddy power

 

I feel these two players have a better grass game than their opponents and are in better form especially Rybakina who had a great French Open and she will be facing an opponent who has still not reached a Grand slam quarter final while Jabeur is playing great on grass and won a title on this surface a few weeks ago and will be facing an opponent who has still not convinced me that she plays her best on grass even though she won the girls title at Wimbledon a few years ago

Rybakina has dropped her serve once in the tourn (I think). I think Sabalenka wlll get a shock when her serve starts coming back. Out of your 3 selections the best bet to win her match.

Pliskova has not dropped a set, and is playing a wildcard player. Experience will tell. For me Jabuer is a perfect match up for Swiatek (also not dropped a set). Doesn't hit the ball particularly hard.

I think Radacanu also loses today. Cirstea looked injured in the previous match, and Tomljanovic played really weel in a heated match with Sevestova.

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Posted (edited)

I think it is the end for Fed today. I watched all three matches he played. Against Mannarino he struggled. Gasquet was already defeated before he stepped on court. His game was like hitting marshmallows for Fed. Fed played poorly against Norrie, but Norrie actually played worse.He looked a bundle of nerves.

Fed's backhand slice return will just not cut it against a really solid, aggressive opponent. The forehand looks a little flaky, with a lot of unforced errors coming from that side. 

It seems that the new grass at Wimbledon is a little slower, and this definitely helps Sonego. Fed would actually love a fast court, where the sliced serve works well, and the slice return stays down and slides. Also the problem with a slower court is that rallies are a few shots longer, as players get to balls they normally would not.

Longer rallies hurt Fed, and stop him from shortening the points (by coming to the net). Federer at 2.5 to 10 is a sucker bet that should be avoided.

 

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)

Just messing around with some tennis data that I got from tennis-data.co.uk

image.thumb.png.468c52170b82e64e71abf521c515b347.png 

Felix has lost to Karatsev, Humbert, Delbonis, Cilic, Isner, Garin, Evans, Ruud this year. He has the right build to be solid on all surfaces, but he just makes a mountain of mistakes. An uninjured Kyrigos destroys him.

I think he's been average to poor this Wimbledon, and will hit a Zverev buzzsaw today. The way Zverev has been serving, I cannot see Zverev dropping a set here.

Edited by neilovan
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I think Djokovic is beatable. He has not played brilliant tennis, but it has been measured, quite similar to Berretttini. Is he so much better than his opponents .... hmmm. 

At the French Musetti was 2 sets up, and so was Tsitsipas. Was it a tennis conundrum, or a refueling problem? Both Musetti and Tsitsipas ran out of gas. Both are young, and both are unsure of how to refuel and reset the body after vigorous previous exercise. Tsitsipas started the French open final at no more than 70% physical capacity.

Djokovic is a seasoned campaigner, and he/they know how to reset him and get back to almost 100% capacity. But after a rest day, the energy levels are probably equal. No reason why Garin can't take a set here. But he has to play smart, and hopefully they have looked at the Jack Draper match.

Garin is more than able to win a set here.

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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Rybakina has dropped her serve once in the tourn (I think). I think Sabalenka wlll get a shock when her serve starts coming back. Out of your 3 selections the best bet to win her match.

Pliskova has not dropped a set, and is playing a wildcard player. Experience will tell. For me Jabuer is a perfect match up for Swiatek (also not dropped a set). Doesn't hit the ball particularly hard.

I think Radacanu also loses today. Cirstea looked injured in the previous match, and Tomljanovic played really weel in a heated match with Sevestova.

About Raducanu

I think she will win the match. I am not the biggest fan of these young and some how unnaturally introduced into WTA tour players but Tomljanovic has never showed big nerves in the big matches and playing at court 1 at Wimbledon against unknown rival who has the support of thousands of people is a massive factor which will affect Tomljanovic’s game.

 

Also Raducanu is in her zone right now, everything she tries, every groundstroke, dropshot, volley, lop is going in or becomes winner while Tomljanovic had very tough couple of matches which I think will affect her not only physically but also mentally.

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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Just messing around with some tennis data that I got from tennis-data.co.uk

image.thumb.png.468c52170b82e64e71abf521c515b347.png 

Felix has lost to Karatsev, Humbert, Delbonis, Cilic, Isner, Garin, Evans, Ruud this year. He has the right build to be solid on all surfaces, but he just makes a mountain of mistakes. An uninjured Kyrigos destroys him.

I think he's been average to poor this Wimbledon, and will hit a Zverev buzzsaw today. The way Zverev has been serving, I cannot see Zverev dropping a set here.

True anyone who watched the Kyrgios match was taken aback by the lack of competition from FAA.

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Today my eyes are to Senego. To my observations model of tennis, Federer today will announce his retirement from the sport after the shocking defeat from the Italian.

However, no bet for me, because when i want to enjoy a tennis match, i never place money on results. Just cool and calm. 

I am also scared to place money on any wta tour match. Who is this Raducanu? A comet? Just another tennis comet who you will see again after 3-4 years? 

No bet for me. 

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instead of Raducanu, my choice is Krejcikova to upset Barty.

Here i am more familiar and confident to back the Czech  than any comet like Raducanu. 

I like the Czech player very very much. I know her style very well, and i know how untrustworthy is the Australian from time to time.

Here is the boom boom today- if will happen of course-

cool stakes, i keep my bank for the Euro where i support England to lift the Trophy

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18 hours ago, owenclass said:

You have got to remember that Jabeur beat Muguruza who is a former Wimbledon champion from losing the first set which means she has that fighting spirit that you need to win these big matches which probably why she threw up before closing the match. It wlll be tough against her opponent. But Jabeur does have better form on the grass while her opponent has not played a top player at this tournament yet. Also her opponent did struggle against Watson at Eastbourne and grass is not her favourite surface. So the match could go either way

image.png

Thank you my friend, for some strange reason I suddenly changed my mind from Swiatek and went really large on Jabeur after reading your response. It just had the effect of bringing me back to reality. One virtual shot of Jack Daniels and coke for you bro. lol!

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23 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

Thank you my friend, for some strange reason I suddenly changed my mind from Swiatek and went really large on Jabeur after reading your response. It just had the effect of bringing me back to reality. One virtual shot of Jack Daniels and coke for you bro. lol!

it does look like the french open was a fluk and i am hoping we dont have another ostapenko in the making. fat sabalenka won again but she will definitely be tested by samsonova if she gets past jabeur which i think she will. jabeur will be a cake walk for her

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3 hours ago, teodorppv said:

About Raducanu

I think she will win the match. I am not the biggest fan of these young and some how unnaturally introduced into WTA tour players but Tomljanovic has never showed big nerves in the big matches and playing at court 1 at Wimbledon against unknown rival who has the support of thousands of people is a massive factor which will affect Tomljanovic’s game.

 

Also Raducanu is in her zone right now, everything she tries, every groundstroke, dropshot, volley, lop is going in or becomes winner while Tomljanovic had very tough couple of matches which I think will affect her not only physically but also mentally.

if raducanu wins today I am taking an outright bet on her to win wimbledon just like I did on krazykova during french open.

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1 hour ago, delfino said:

instead of Raducanu, my choice is Krejcikova to upset Barty.

Here i am more familiar and confident to back the Czech  than any comet like Raducanu. 

I like the Czech player very very much. I know her style very well, and i know how untrustworthy is the Australian from time to time.

Here is the boom boom today- if will happen of course-

cool stakes, i keep my bank for the Euro where i support England to lift the Trophy

yes my friend. krazykova is being underestimated by everyone so far

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2 minutes ago, bet4fun said:

it does look like the french open was a fluk and i am hoping we dont have another ostapenko in the making. fat sabalenka won again but she will definitely be tested by samsonova if she gets past jabeur which i think she will. jabeur will be a cake walk for her

''fat'' Sabalenka?

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4 hours ago, neilovan said:

I think Djokovic is beatable. He has not played brilliant tennis, but it has been measured, quite similar to Berretttini. Is he so much better than his opponents .... hmmm. 

At the French Musetti was 2 sets up, and so was Tsitsipas. Was it a tennis conundrum, or a refueling problem? Both Musetti and Tsitsipas ran out of gas. Both are young, and both are unsure of how to refuel and reset the body after vigorous previous exercise. Tsitsipas started the French open final at no more than 70% physical capacity.

Djokovic is a seasoned campaigner, and he/they know how to reset him and get back to almost 100% capacity. But after a rest day, the energy levels are probably equal. No reason why Garin can't take a set here. But he has to play smart, and hopefully they have looked at the Jack Draper match.

Garin is more than able to win a set here.

even after winning australian open and french open he has to prove and medvedev who just won the paris masters and year end tournament is world no 2 has played brilliantly. do i have to remind you of his ridiculuous first round and 2nd round exits in some of the atp 500 tournaments because of his hyper behaviour

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2 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:

''fat'' Sabalenka?

yes fat and healthy whatever you call her. samsonova is very much capable of beating her. i think the british girl came so close the other day

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5 hours ago, neilovan said:

I think it is the end for Fed today. I watched all three matches he played. Against Mannarino he struggled. Gasquet was already defeated before he stepped on court. His game was like hitting marshmallows for Fed. Fed played poorly against Norrie, but Norrie actually played worse.He looked a bundle of nerves.

Fed's backhand slice return will just not cut it against a really solid, aggressive opponent. The forehand looks a little flaky, with a lot of unforced errors coming from that side. 

It seems that the new grass at Wimbledon is a little slower, and this definitely helps Sonego. Fed would actually love a fast court, where the sliced serve works well, and the slice return stays down and slides. Also the problem with a slower court is that rallies are a few shots longer, as players get to balls they normally would not.

Longer rallies hurt Fed, and stop him from shortening the points (by coming to the net). Federer at 2.5 to 10 is a sucker bet that should be avoided.

 

no chance. federer is too good for sonego.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, bet4fun said:

if raducanu wins today I am taking an outright bet on her to win wimbledon just like I did on krazykova during french open.

it is very possible. i am not saying that raducanu is something special but obviously she is playing well right now. also i am not finding any female player as a massive favourite this year at wimbledon (sabalenka is very unforced errors prone like always, barty is not playing very well personally for me, for krejcikova i think the pressure will be too much after RG) and emotions and mentality are maybe the most important part of having a successful week or two at the WTA tour and raducanu has the support of the home nation, this means she will either burn out and lose the match today vs not very successful player like Tomljanovic or she will ride the wave.

I won’t be surprised if she reaches semis or final. 

Edited by teodorppv
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