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Wimbledon 2021


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Since I am not the sort of person to shy away from what I deem an attractive bet be it cockroaches and beetles in action I found this, and it did not take long for it to become one of my fav bets of the day coupled with another banker bet that I will be delivering after this. I know Czech and his constant demands for reasoning to be provided etc. This is a sort of bet that you are either in or out. I have not provided a reason because I will expect everyone to immediately see the reason or pass. Krajicek/Santamaria vs Kyrgios/V. Williams. Pick Kyrgios/Williams @1/2 definately showcase tennis expected

Edited by liquidglass
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Golubic vs Brengle

Market opened at Golubic 1/2  Brengle 6/4 and has now moved to 1/4    3/1 respectively. There can only be two valid reasons responsible. You are always a winner when such as situation is diagnosed correctly because as I always say, it is the precise translation of odds rather than form that determines outcome. first thing we do is check the head to head between the two players. It stands at 0-1 brengle played way back in 2014. I strongly believe that this stat has no relevance although it can act as a tie-breaker when it becomes close to separate them. The question now is whether we can find justification for this sort of erratic market move. Brengle might not be your regular top flight player but she certainly has days when her unorthodox game can shine out. It has to be pointed out that she is now on her best surface and on decent grass form 3/5 the two lost were to Kostyuk and kozlova where she took them both to 3 sets swinging in the process. Here already two sound wins against Mchale and Kenin. This is not normally the story of a player who should drop in price just like that. The most likely reason is the entry of sharp money on Golubic which I feel certain is the case 9/10. In this case one has to make sure that only bets that support the input of Brengle is taken; like to win, to win a set, or +handicaps. Totals are quite dangerous as Golubic can be made to go to sleep without warning. Verdict Brengle to win a set @5/6 and much much more, trust me. Brengle +5.5 a real steal. "I have already my boots filled" employing the English proverbial saying. lol!!!

Edited by liquidglass
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2 hours ago, liquidglass said:

first thing we do is check the head to head between the two players. It stands at 0-1 brengle played way back in 2014. I strongly believe that this stat has no relevance although it can act as a tie-breaker when it becomes close to separate them. The question now is whether we can find justification for this sort of erratic market move.

The h2h is actually 2-0, you are forgetting a match between these 2 players that took place just 2 weeks ago in the qualification for Eastbourne. Golubic lost the first set 6-4 but then won 6-3 the second one and 6-0 the third one. That recent victory and the fact that Golubic is having the best year of her career (40-12) are the reasons for those market movements.

Edited by darko08
reasons "for" not reasons "of" haha
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Muguruza vs Jabuer is a battle between 2 top in-form players esp. Jabuer who is dominant and already won 31 matches this season but I think Muguruza has the edge and "big game" experience to beat her opponent in a tight 2 or 3 setters. 

And with about the same odds, probably she has more chance to win than for Samsonova to beat Stephens.

What do you guys think of my opinion?

Edited by Robinnho
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That match is really hard to predict. I saw Mugu against Ferro and the 1st set of her match against Kerkhove and I saw Jabeur against Venus. Jabeur struggled to win the 1st set but, overall, both Mugu and Jabeur look great. They played once before (2020) and Mugu won but it was really tight (3-6, 6-3, 7-6) so I guess that's why you are expecting another tight match here. Personally I have no bets for today, I don't like anything.

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2 hours ago, darko08 said:

The h2h is actually 2-0, you are forgetting a match between these 2 players that took place just 2 weeks ago in the qualification for Eastbourne. Golubic lost the first set 6-4 but then won 6-3 the second one and 6-0 the third one. That recent victory and the fact that Golubic is having the best year of her career (40-12) are the reasons for those market movements.

I was not looking for the reason for the market move as market moves are normal. I was more interested in the "erratic nature" of the market move which was going to most certainly bring market forces into play. the market will normally move one point forward or backwards to indicate a normal trend. When it moves erratically as it has done in this case, there is a cause to investigate. The odd setters never make faux pas's in most cases. They most certainly must have been aware of Golubic's 40-12 record before the initial odd of 1/2 was set. That odd should really not go past 1/3 for any reason except there are serious influences on the market which can most times be artificial. I was very aware of their last head to head, it was just that I forgot to mention it. In fact that last head to head was the strongest evidence that led me to conclude that Brengle will certainly make this a contest. Aside that last set where she collapsed, she was very competitive and I do not expect any worse from her now on her favored surface in such a short space of time, plus having form on her side. I will be surprised if anything different happens.

Edited by liquidglass
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Kyrgios vs. FAA - First Set Score After 6 Games: 3-3 at 1.72 with bet365
Juvan (+5.5 Games) to beat Gauff at 1.52 with Pinnacle

As I said I have no bets for today so I'm taking a look at the matches for tomorrow. I think this one doesn't need to much explanation. These players have only played once before and it was in Queens in 2019. FAA won (6-7, 7-6, 7-5) and this bet was won in all sets. In fact, Kyrgios had 0 BPs in the whole match (0-0) and FAA had 2 (1-2). 
Juvan did well on grass in 2019. In Wimbledon, she beat McHale and Krystina Pliskova and she took a set from Serena in the 2nd round. Before that, she beat Minnen and Lisicki in Mallorca before losing against Jabeur in 2 tight sets (5-7, 6-7). This year, she started the grass season losing in a 3 set match against Muhammad in the 1st match of the qualification for Berlin. But now, she has destroyed Bencic (6-3, 6-3) and Burel (6-3, 6-4) in her first 2 matches here. I only saw her against Bencic and I was really surprised with how she played. Bencic played bad the first games of the match and Juvan took advantage of that. Then, Bencic raised her level but Juvan played incredibly good and she closed the match in 2 sets (6-3, 6-3). Gauff beat Jones (7-5, 6-4) and Vesnina (6-4, 6-3). I saw the first games of her match against Jones and I was surprised to see how Gauff struggled to break Jones' serve. Gauff played in Eastbourne, beating Mertens (0-6, 7-6, 7-5) and losing against Sevastova in a 3 set match. These players have played twice before. Juvan won the 1st match 6-3, 6-3 (French Open 2019). Gauff won the last one, played this year in Adelaide, but it was tight (3-6, 7-5, 6-3) and Gauff only won 6 points more than Juvan in the whole match. 

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I quite like Shapavalov to beat Murray in straight sets today.

One thing that Murray does (and always has), is use matches as warm ups and training sessions. It was never in doubt that he would beat Otte. But he drew the match out, and when needed to, stepped up and won easily. He wanted the court time in his legs, as well as an extra 1.5 hours on center. Easier to find your match fitness this way.

But I think Shapavalov just dominates today. One player at the peak of his physical performance, while the other on the way down. Shapavalov winning 3:0 is 13 to 10. I could not resist a little flutter on Keys to beat Mertens. 

012501777

02/07/21 09:59
Mertens, Elise vs Keys, Madison
2-Way Odds (12) - 2 1.93
Shapovalov, Denis vs Murray, Andy
Correct Set Score - 3:0 2.41

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Two best players in the men's side for me .... Rublev and Medvedev. Rublev was awesome in just blasting Harris off the court. Crazy, accurate, relentless hitting. Brilliant display!  I just see the same happening today against Fognini. I like Garin, who had an easy win, over Martinez who had a tough match with Monfils,

I also think Seb Korda is underrated. Just quitely cruising along, and a decent price for the win.

 

02/07/21 10:06
Fognini, Fabio v Rublev, Andrey
Correct Set Score 0:3 1.90
Garin, Cristian v Martinez, Pedro
2-Way Odds (12) 11.37
Evans, Daniel v Korda, Sebastian  
2-Way Odds (12) 21.98
 
 
Edited by neilovan
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1 hour ago, 888888 said:

anyone taking Fucsovics @2 to beat Schwartzman?

Schwartzman had two easy games, Fucsovics is clearly a level higher than his two previous opponents

 

The easier bet here is to go the distance. Overs here.

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8 hours ago, darko08 said:

Kyrgios vs. FAA - First Set Score After 6 Games: 3-3 at 1.72 with bet365
Juvan (+5.5 Games) to beat Gauff at 1.52 with Pinnacle

As I said I have no bets for today so I'm taking a look at the matches for tomorrow. I think this one doesn't need to much explanation. These players have only played once before and it was in Queens in 2019. FAA won (6-7, 7-6, 7-5) and this bet was won in all sets. In fact, Kyrgios had 0 BPs in the whole match (0-0) and FAA had 2 (1-2). 
Juvan did well on grass in 2019. In Wimbledon, she beat McHale and Krystina Pliskova and she took a set from Serena in the 2nd round. Before that, she beat Minnen and Lisicki in Mallorca before losing against Jabeur in 2 tight sets (5-7, 6-7). This year, she started the grass season losing in a 3 set match against Muhammad in the 1st match of the qualification for Berlin. But now, she has destroyed Bencic (6-3, 6-3) and Burel (6-3, 6-4) in her first 2 matches here. I only saw her against Bencic and I was really surprised with how she played. Bencic played bad the first games of the match and Juvan took advantage of that. Then, Bencic raised her level but Juvan played incredibly good and she closed the match in 2 sets (6-3, 6-3). Gauff beat Jones (7-5, 6-4) and Vesnina (6-4, 6-3). I saw the first games of her match against Jones and I was surprised to see how Gauff struggled to break Jones' serve. Gauff played in Eastbourne, beating Mertens (0-6, 7-6, 7-5) and losing against Sevastova in a 3 set match. These players have played twice before. Juvan won the 1st match 6-3, 6-3 (French Open 2019). Gauff won the last one, played this year in Adelaide, but it was tight (3-6, 7-5, 6-3) and Gauff only won 6 points more than Juvan in the whole match. 

I add one more for tomorrow.

Ostapenko (-3.0 Games) to beat Tomljanovic at 1.59 with Pinnacle

Ostapenko is 8-1 on grass this year and she's on a 7 winning streak. She won in Eastbourne (Pavlyuchenkova, Jabeur, Kasatkina, Rybakina and Kontaveit). In her first match here she destroyed Leylah Fernandez (6-1, 6-2) and then she struggled to beat Kasatkina (6-1, 3-6, 8-6). I knew that 2R match was like a toss coin cause Kasatkina was playing incredibly well, too (she reached the Final in Birmingham). Tomljanovic has a decent record on grass (27-23) but Ostapenko's record on this surface is much more impressive (32-15). Besides, Tomljanovic never has reached the 4th round in Wimbledon while Ostapenko reached the SFs here in 2018 and the QFs in 2017... not bad at all. In Birmingham Tomljanovic beat Mertens in 3 TBs and then she lost against Minnen in straight sets . In Eastbourne she beat Davis and then she lost against Giorgi, both in 2 sets. In her 1st match here she beat Minnen (6-2, 7-6) and then she beat Cornet (6-4, 0-6, 6-3). These players only have played once before and it was on clay (Rome 2021). Ostapenko won (6-2, 7-6). 

Edited by darko08
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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Sebastian Korda to beat Karen Khachanov at 1.91 with Pinnacle

I think this is a positive match-up for Korda. He puts players under pressure and leaves them without much time, while Khachanov has bigger swings. A bit like Karatsev, who Korda has a superb H2H record against.

Can you explain a bit what exactly you mean by this? While Khachanov has bigger swings and what about it? Do you mean Korda will beat Karen as easily as Aslan just because Karen and Aslan has bigger swings? I don't fully understand you on that really.

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6 hours ago, owenclass said:

I fancy Norrie to win a set

I think if Norrie can win a set, he will go on to win the match because I don't think Roger can play at high levelfor more than 3 sets as I have seen him not able to put up a good fight in the 3rd set of non-slam matches.  Of course he is better prepared physically here so it's either Roger to win 3-0 if he can or loose the match to Norrie who is fit and can go on the miles though not an elite server.  So it will depend very much on Roger's performance in the 1st 3 sets and I am going to try a small bet on Norrie to beat RF @ 3.15 with Marathonbet.

 

Edited by Robinnho
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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

@four-leaf Yes, the both need a bit of time to set up their shots, while Korda likes to attack and take time away from them. I saw the last match he played against Karatsev and it was a prime example of that. 

So 12 hours ago you got 1.91 on Korda and now it's about 1.78.. Not very attractive price.

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Berretini v Bedene

Quite a tricky match simply because they have both breezed past their opponents, neither really being tested. One thing that has really impressed me with Berritini is his serving. When he needs a first serve he has it ready.

I remember the Aussie open this year playing Anderson 1st round. He was 4-5  and 0-40, and found 11 straight 1st serves ( Anderson had another couple of break points in the game). 11 rockets in a row is insane. Yesterday Shapavalov smacked Murray behind a 1st serve of 32% (1st and 2nd set). Then he actually made some serves in the 3rd set and it was lights out. So on grass serving big is just huge.

Against van de Sandschulp Berretini faced 2 set points in the 3rd set and found 5 first serves (I think he was 4-5 or 5-6 down). So he has a ridic weapon in his arsenal.

What big serving does is empower a player. He knows he will win his serve easily, and he plays '1st strike' tennis against an opponent. So you get this weird herky-jerky, stop start game with no rhythm. 

In 2020-2021 Berritini has played 16 matches in the slams, winning 12 times. Only 3 tiimes has he played a match of more than 3 sets when winning.

Two bets I like are Berritini in 3 sets and under 35.5  games. For me the 3:0 set score is a good option at odds of 1.75 , as I think you may see 1 breaker here.

 

Ivashka v J. Thompson

Neither look too flash so far, though Ivashka over Chardy was a good win. Thompson having played a 5 setter and a 4 setter may be feeling it, and I would be going Ivashka here.

 

Auger-Alissime v Kyrigos

 

 

Alissime has been working very hard with Toni Nadal. Conditioning makes a huge difference, as it slows/ reduces the mental fatigue. This guy is super fit and highly motivated. One thing that stood out in his match with Ymer, was how tough the court was to play on. Shadows all over the place, which makes timing and seeing the ball really difficult.

Today this match is 2nd on court # 1 (after the Radacanu match). I just feel that Kyrigos may be a little tired and hurting.

Interesting in that Aliassime is 1.7 to win

I would rather take him to win 3:0 and in another bet win 3:1  (both of these at odds 4.1+).

 

Fritz v Zverev

 

Fritz has played 7 matches in the majors this year.  5 of these have been 4 sets or more. Samos-Vinoles, Opelka,  Djokovic, Koepfer, Nakashima, Johnston . In none of these matches have there been a 6-0 or 6-1 set. So this guy will not lie down, and is a tough competitor. Possibly an upset here, as Zverev could go off the rails.here.

I see a minimum of 4 sets here as the trend continues... and will take Fritz to win outright in a small long shot.

 

Federer v Norrie

 

The old Federer is making an appearance as the rust comes off his game. He is getting sharper and Sharper, and I don't think we' see a repeat of his forehand being so wobbly and inconsistent. Norrie has had a great year,  beating Dan Evans at the Australian, but he is not a world beater. Just a grinder, with a strange left handed style that takes some getting used to.

 

I think Fed wins this easily. The 3-0 scoreline in sets at 2.93 looks good and the under 38.5 games also at odds of 1.84

 

Medvedev v Cilic

 

Medvedev playing fantastico tennis. The match against Struff was excellent. Both players playing exceptional tennis. One of the matches of the tourn for me. And Medvedev had to play great to win ... no freebees there.

Medvedev is a 3 set machine. Played 14 matches at the majors this year and 11 of them have been 3 setters. Medvedev is deceptively good at returning serve, and should have Cilic in trouble early. Look for it, because if he has him under pressure early (first 3 serve games from Cilic struggling), it's a no contest.

For me Medvedev really justifies his 2nd seeding here, and could destroy Cilic.  I like the 0:3 set scoreline and the Aisan -5.5 for medvedev at 1.75

 

 

A couple of woman's matches look profitable. I don't think Kerber can be feeling too flash after a marathon in the previous round. I would be betting against her. I think Radacanu has a huge chance of upsetting Cirstea, especially  with the home crowd bringing such energy. For me Barty always looks vulnerable.

 

Kerber, Angelique v Sasnovich, Aliaksandra
2-Way Odds (12) 2
4.70
Cirstea, Sorana v Raducanu, Emma
2-Way Odds (12) 2
2.58
Barty, Ashleigh v Siniakova, Katerina
2-Way Odds (12) 2
3.96
Stake
Max. Payout
XXX
YYY.9

 

Just a longshot treble for a fiver at 48 to 1

Edited by neilovan
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Third round·Court 2
SUSPENDED
h1FhPLmDg9AHXzhygqvVPg_48x48.png 25 A. Kerber
1
 
Epw_LlTSmXmMslvkQu0TdQ_48x48.png   A. Sasnovich
5
 
0 Aces 2
0 Double faults 2
85% First serve % 63%
59% Win % on 1st serve 80%
33% Win % on 2nd serve 100%
0/0
Break points
2/4
0 Tiebreaks won 0
4 Receiving points won 9
15 Points won 21
1 Games won 5
1 Max games won in a row 4
3 Max points won in a row 4
11 Service points won 12
1 Service games won 3

 

The stats tel quite a story here, because Kerber is getting no free points serviing,  and getting hammered on her second serve.

 

Similar story here

 

Third round·Court 15
SUSPENDED
haAD1SXbO8U5DrW0FjJCPw_48x48.png   J. Ostapenko
4
 
jSgw5z0EPOLzdUi-Aomq7Q_48x48.png   A. Tomljanović
2
 
2 Aces 2
2 Double faults 0
69% First serve % 88%
64% Win % on 1st serve 52%
100% Win % on 2nd serve 33%
2/3
Break points
1/2
0 Tiebreaks won 0
13 Receiving points won 6
23 Points won 19
4 Games won 2
2 Max games won in a row 1
4 Max points won in a row 3
10 Service points won 13
2 Service games won 1

 

 

With Ostepenko dominant.

I don't think the rain makes a difference with Kerber. Can her opponent just keep calm and doing what she is doing now?

 

Would quite like this bet to win

 

1012519461
03/07/21 11:05
Kerber, Angelique v Sasnovich, Aliaksandra
2-Way Odds (12) 2
4.70
Fritz, Taylor v Zverev, Alexander
2-Way Odds (12) 1
6.50
Barty, Ashleigh v Siniakova, Katerina
2-Way Odds (12) 2
4.01
Stake
Max. Payout   12250.55

Edited by neilovan
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I do not know if it is just me. The applauds Raducanu has been getting from the crowd just does not sound organic. I can imagine a more deafening sound if she was inherently British. It just might change for her going into the later rounds as the hype runs side by side with the England team in the coming days......Well, that is if England pass today's hurdle.

Edited by liquidglass
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30 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

I do not know if it is just me. The applauds Raducanu has been getting from the crowd just does not sound organic. I can imagine a more deafening sound if she was inherently British. It just might change for her going into the later rounds as the hype runs side by side with the England team in the coming days......Well, that is if England pass today's hurdle.

England will qualify the SF playing in Wembly (so is the Final)....................

In my opinion, England is facing the weakest team, Ukraine in the last 8 of the Euro 2020!

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31 minutes ago, Hermes said:

FAA with so many errors Vs a Kyrgios lacking match conditioning. This game is a disappointment.

Both matches are hideous. Norrie can hardly hit the ball, and Fed has been poor. The Kyrigos game, Felix is all over the place. Both matches are crap.

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6 hours ago, owenclass said:

No tennis on Sunday

No Wimbledon tennis on Sunday and also no Euro 2020 football on Sunday😌

Small outright winner bets:

Samsonova @ 20.0 with coolbet

Raducanu @ 27.0 with coolbet

These 2 up and rising lightweights seem to be punching harder than many heavy weights with good precisions. And they never seem to be tired and/or fade away playing for long matches.

🏆

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