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Wimbledon 2021


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I'll be watching Tallon Grieskpoor today. Clearly anything less than a win for Zverev will be a massive shock, but this guy has the ability to serve bot some matches on faster courts like he did in the qualies. His overs are around 10,11 and rightfully so but I'll be keen when the match goes live. I've watched him over the last two years in the challengers and is clearly someone on the up like Popyrin was 2 years ago. I believe he would have caused an upset were he not facing Zverev like a decent player in the top 50.Even if he doesn't win this today , he'll be someone to watch in the future.

Edited by Hermes
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@four-leaf

Serena is too old and heavy which affects her speed and timing. This is not a braking news :)   I believe that tipping anything related to her progress is risky.

She's not a very scary opponent anymore. The recipe for winning against her is simple and there are tennis players who can make her run and run.

Edited by lelit
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How comes she's not a scary opponent and the recipe is so simple? :) She's got 2 years older since 2019 but she comes here rested after FO and grass court seems to suit her better than FO's clay (where she showed herself pretty well, btw).

2120466666_Screenshot2021-06-29at09_42_11.thumb.png.f03ac7b97c06fd96a3e768ef619648a5.png

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Thinking of Pliskova to progress at least of couple rounds. At least she should easily pass over Zidansek who is not in harmony with grass court.

Pliskova has lost the first two grass season matches (Pegula and Giorgi). Giorgi had more good grass court games beforehand and Pegula... nothing to say... the nightmare dream of Pliskova.

Still, I think she will progress pretty well at Wimbledon and Zidansek should not be a threat to her.

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Pliskova should advance, no doubt, if she's there mentally.

As for Serena, I think she's going to go reasonably far, but I don't trust her to win the thing. She's just vulnerable these days and I think she's lost the aura as well. No longer are players just afraid of stepping on the court with her on the other side of the net. That said, she will target this big time, it won't get any easier as far as the field is concerned. No Halep, no Osaka, no Kvitova, etc. If you trust her to win that one GS title, this is probably her best chance of them all.

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Querrey - Carreno Busta 1 @1.80 with WWin

American showed some signs of better form in recent weeks, his game suits grass very good. Busta has 0/5 record in Wimbledon and I think he will record another one against big serving Querrey today.

Trungelliti - Bonzi; Trungelliti over 16.5 games @1.87 with WWin

Both player came through qualies, Bonzi has better results this year on grass courts and also overall. He lost set against Ferreira Sliva in last round, but he is big favorite today (1.25). I expect close match with 4 sets at least and that Trungelliti wins at least set here and in this case bet should be easily won.

GL!

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Well, that was quick for Serena!

Mikael Ymer to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.91 with William Hill

Now that there's a lesser chance of a rain delay, I'm happy to pick Ymer. He should simply outlast Tsonga just by hanging in there, enough has already been said on this forum about this.

Marton Fucsovics to beat Jiri Vesely at 1.54 with Pinnacle

Vesely had a good showing in R1, but that doesn't change the fact that he's been quite poor so far in this season. Fucsovics has generally been miles above him and, over the best of five format, he should make inroads eventually.

 

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13 hours ago, lelit said:

@four-leaf

Serena is too old and heavy which affects her speed and timing. This is not a braking news :)   I believe that tipping anything related to her progress is risky.

She's not a very scary opponent anymore. The recipe for winning against her is simple and there are tennis players who can make her run and run.

Well it doesn't make it easier for her by retireing in SW19 R1 the tournament that was probably her last chance to win 24 GS.

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15 minutes ago, lelit said:

 

@four-leaf

I will add, that with her weight and style of play, she can easily get injured. And then it will be a heroic failure of an ambitious retiring hero :)

I very mutch give up on Serena from now on even though I knew it wasn't gonna happen probably but I thought she had at least a tiny chance of making it 24. But now I think she can say good bye to the sport.

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Having watched both days of Wimbledon so far, I have been surprised by how slippery and green the covered courts are. It kind of makes sense that you would get an unexpected surface, simply because nobody knows how the grass reacts to 'indoor' conditions. But the two covered courts are definitely different to those outdoors.

Question: With matches to be made up, where are those scheduled in to play? So does the order of play take precedence? 

A few games I like today.

Karatsev to beat Chardy at 6/10  . I think the grass suites a solid player, with great balance. No more solid than Karatsev, while Chardy is coming to the end of his career.

Querry to beat Carreno-Busta

I think Dimitrov beats Verdasco quite easily. I lighter, more agile guy will dominate on the grass.

Interesting game with Tsonga and Ymer. I just feel that the Tsonga serve could be the difference in what should be a tight match. I expect at least 1  tie breaker here, and Tsonga to win, in a match that goes at least 4 sets.

A surprise for me is too see Fritz at odds of 1.96 against Nakashima. Can only be because Fritz has not prepared on grass, but these odds way to big for me. 

Edited by neilovan
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Korda (-5,5 Games) to beat Hoang at 1,62 with Pinnacle
Vesely vs. Fucsovics Both players to win a set at 1.60 with William Hill

Korda has had a really good year (24-11) and he's playing really good on grass. In Halle he beat RBA and Nishikori before losing against Humbert in a 3 set match. In his 1st match here he has beat De Minaur in 4 sets. Hoang has suffered every single match he has played here. In the qualification he beat Kwiatkowski (3-6, 6-3, 6-4), Copil (7-6, 4-6, 7-5), and Molcan (1-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-5). In his 1st main draw match he has played another 5-setter against Zhizhen Zhang. Considering how he has suffered against all these players and how Korda has played against players as RBA, Nishikori or De Minaur I think he can cover this handicap.
I agree with Czech and I hope we can both win our bets for this match. Vesely has had a bad year (10-14) but his record in Wimbledon is much more impressive than Fucsovics' record. Fucsovics has beat Sinner in 4 sets in his 1st match here while Vesely has beat Hanfmann in straight sets. Fucsovics has had a better year but Vesely has showed better performances on this surface and his game suits better here so I think this can be a long match.

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tournament started good if anyone followed some of my tips. today I combined some of yours, have one combo (korda, agut, evans all three -1.5 set HC and nakashima to win). I´ll also try with this high odd bet.

Johnson - Novak over 38.5 games + Johnson to win @3.15 with WWin

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Vesely Vs Fucsovics

There is a whole lot of flooding on the forum at this time, and that can be expected especially as we are in a grand slam week. It makes me want to observe more and write less and it has been paying off in leaps and bounds. It is really hard to make a credible case for any pick at this time because everyone has come with a chance of some sort. Vesely is more at home on grass and has the serve and game to match. Fucsovics has already played his part this year on the clay circuit and really does not merit my consideration. This should be pretty straight-forward, then again what ever is?

Edited by liquidglass
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On 6/27/2021 at 1:10 AM, AgaRadwanska said:

Mikael Ymer to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.95 with William Hill

Someone posted a little while ago how bad Tsonga has been since returning from injury, and in particular against Gerasimov (his only grass match since 2019). Ymer has played at a decent level recently, defeating Monfils and Carballes Baena at the French Open - before losing 3-0 to Sinner. Ymer will have a big fitness edge, and the confidence that comes from actually winning matches. 

Tsonga on the other hand has won 1 match since the end of 2019. In 2021 his win:loss is 1:6. He has won a total of 3/17 sets played. 

I know we're all punters but it's sad to see this guy go this way esp if you watched him in his prime 08-12.Ymer had 28 breakpoints but could only convert 6.The match could have ended sooner but it was down to Ymer making many unforced errors. Sad to see the guy go down this way.

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Aljaz Bedene to beat Yoshihito Nishioka at 1.56 with Pinnacle

It was a massive effort from Nishioka against Isner, but it was a long one as well and mentally tiring. Bedene will be a completely different challenge, so Nishioka will have to adapt and manage his fitness as well. Not sure he can do that at all, especially since that Isner win was a big outlier as far as his current season is concerned.

Marketa Vondrousova to beat Emma Raducanu at 1.35 with Pinnacle

Short odds, but there's a massive gulf of class between the two. Vondrousova has a lot of losses this year, but mainly against elite players, while Raducanu is just five matches in. Sure, she has a 3-2 record, but she's yet to face someone this good.

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Steve Johnson to beat Taylor Fritz at 2.35 with Pinnacle

Taking this with Pinnacle, wouldn't be shocked by Fritz retiring. Anyway, Fritz looked good against Nakashima, way better than expected, but let's not take things for granted. Playing a second match in two days can take its toll if his fitness isn't there, which it shouldn't. Also, Johnson tends to fare well against guys with big serves and has a good record against both Isner and Fritz himself.

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On 6/30/2021 at 1:44 AM, lelit said:

 

@four-leaf

I will add, that with her weight and style of play, she can easily get injured. And then it will be a heroic failure of an ambitious retiring hero :)

yes she is gone. will never win anything again and I think that fat sabalenka should have lost yesterday as well. katie played well.

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