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Racing Chat - Thursday 27th May


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Only looked at Ripon so far

1.55 Purple Bling (PH) £3 win at 8.2 = £21.17 profit if it wins

3.05 Carausius (TM) £3 win at 8.2 (um at 7.4) Not willing to risk more on this one and will let it go if price isn't matched

4.05 Julie Johnston £2 win at 26. The horse has to bounce back.  Could have put £1 on it at 16/1' 18/1 in other places.  Looks too skinny at that price.  As its an outsider, hopefully the price will be matched.  Will check later and perhaps take a lesser price of 20/1 for a £1 if available

Poss stakes £8 so far.  Pity I couldn't check out more races before getting ready and going off to lunch.  Back later

 

 

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Ripon 3.05 bollin joan 7/2 2pt win

Ripon 5.15 refuge 7/2 2pt win

Yadock 3.55 dan de light 6/1 1pt win

Carlisle 7.15 noble crusade 7/2 1pt win

Sandown 5.45 noble masquerade 3/1 2pt win

Sandown 6.50 ranch hand 1pt win

Sandown 8.30 urban violet 3/1 3pt win

12 points staked

Good luck 🤙 

 

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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Only looked at Ripon so far

1.55 Purple Bling (PH) £3 win at 8.2 = £21.17 profit if it wins

3.05 Carausius (TM) £3 win at 8.2 (um at 7.4) Not willing to risk more on this one and will let it go if price isn't matched

4.05 Julie Johnston £2 win at 26. The horse has to bounce back.  Could have put £1 on it at 16/1' 18/1 in other places.  Looks too skinny at that price.  As its an outsider, hopefully the price will be matched.  Will check later and perhaps take a lesser price of 20/1 for a £1 if available

Poss stakes £8 so far.  Pity I couldn't check out more races before getting ready and going off to lunch.  Back later

 

 

Adding in a couple at Worcester

4.15 Force Ten  (BF/PN) £3.20 at 7.4 = £20.07 profit if it wins

4.45 High Change (STD/Doc) £4.50 win at 5.7 = £20.73 profit if it wins

 

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Adding in a couple at Worcester

4.15 Force Ten  (BF/PN) £3.20 at 7.4 = £20.07 profit if it wins

4.45 High Change (STD/Doc) £4.50 win at 5.7 = £20.73 profit if it wins

 

No luck so far.

8.50 Carl 8.50 Carl Inside Intel £2 win at 17 (um at 13.5 so far)

Sandown selections

5.45 Sunsupgunsup (GD5) £3 win at 8.4

6.15 Ebro River £4.50 win at 5.6 (um 5.2)

6.50 Lismore (JS) £2 win at 12.5 = £22.54 if wins

8.30 Final Watch (HD) £2.50 at 9.4 = £18.63 & Buxted Too (WB) £2.50 win at 9.71 = £18.90 if it wins

Will tot up total stakes later

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

No luck so far.

8.50 Carl 8.50 Carl Inside Intel £2 win at 17 (um at 13.5 so far)

Sandown selections

5.45 Sunsupgunsup (GD5) £3 win at 8.4

6.15 Ebro River £4.50 win at 5.6 (um 5.2)

6.50 Lismore (JS) £2 win at 12.5 = £22.54 if wins

8.30 Final Watch (HD) £2.50 at 9.4 = £18.63 & Buxted Too (WB) £2.50 win at 9.71 = £18.90 if it wins

Will tot up total stakes later

 

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

It all worked at right on the night.  Laid out £32.20 and got back £49.33, therefore £17.13 net profit on the day.  I was a bit annoyed that I got talked out of backing Euchen Glen in the 7.25 at Sandown ridden by Paul Mulrennan for Jim Goldie which won st 20/1.  Paul has had a couple of winners for this trainer recently but all the media narrative put me off.  I only needed a £1 on it 20/1 to make my profit. Stupid!!!

My new balance is £962.33 (Bank £1056.22).

Five UK flat meetings tomorrow and one over the jumps.  I feel tired just thinking about looking through all the races

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I've backed 6 odds on shots today and all have lost !

4 of them were part of a strategy I was testing purely based on odds on horses. Today has been the final nail in the coffin for this strategy, it is now showing a loss after over a year so will be consigned to my systems rubbish bin.

Good for you.  I have found it very hard to steer clear of the favourites in the past.  Now I am trying to look beyond them and their nearest rivals to get some real value out of backing longer priced horses.  I believe that the mains sports media whether it be the Racing Post or At The Races lead us all by the hand to conclude that races will be won by the market leaders.  This is obviously a "bookies" game, although I haven't done any analysis to prove that by backing the top selections which e.g. take up over 50% of the market share in each race actually produces a loss over time.

By narrowing my selections down using the top/in form jockeys and apprentices I have fewer horses to consider and then trying to see through all the negativity given out by the media and focus on what is possible despite possibly a couple of bad previous runs will, I hope lead to some success in what is at best imo a difficult medium to make a long term steady regular profit.

 

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I think you will probably lose less on odds on favourites if you bet randomly but it has proved difficult to develop a profitable strategy.

A quick analysis of all results so far this year is :-

Odds on ROI -9%

1/1 to 19/2 -14%

10/1+ -33%.

All these numbers are at SP.

The only profitable area is 1/4 and below which shows a profit of 7%, with 63 winners from 70 runners.

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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Good for you.  I have found it very hard to steer clear of the favourites in the past.  Now I am trying to look beyond them and their nearest rivals to get some real value out of backing longer priced horses.  I believe that the mains sports media whether it be the Racing Post or At The Races lead us all by the hand to conclude that races will be won by the market leaders.  This is obviously a "bookies" game, although I haven't done any analysis to prove that by backing the top selections which e.g. take up over 50% of the market share in each race actually produces a loss over time.

By narrowing my selections down using the top/in form jockeys and apprentices I have fewer horses to consider and then trying to see through all the negativity given out by the media and focus on what is possible despite possibly a couple of bad previous runs will, I hope lead to some success in what is at best imo a difficult medium to make a long term steady regular profit.

 

I'm a big fan of the Wisdom of The Crowd, especially when the fav is NOT tipped by any newspaper \ online tipster

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22 hours ago, gbettle said:

I'm a big fan of the Wisdom of The Crowd, especially when the fav is NOT tipped by any newspaper \ online tipster

Hmmm.  One of my favourites books is called "Against The Crowd" by Alan Potts published in 1995.  I must say I have never made any money at all by following the crowd in any way shape or form.  My very best wishes to you if you have cracked it.  As for favourites that haven't been the subject to media hype I don't believe that these are are created by wise people in the crowds.  They are created by bookmakers trying to limit their liabilities.  We can all remember recent attempted coups when 33/1 shots have gone off at say 6/4 favourite.  Sometimes they work but more often than not if there is any value to be had in the bet it has long since gone.

I know that my recent change in betting strategy of looking away from the favourites and trying to find value in the non hyped up selections through jockey bookings is different but it pays off handsomely when it works.  I would even go as far as to say that I am able to afford a smile to my fellow punters when the favourite does go in and my selection is beaten out of contention as I do feel for my fellow friends. 

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The wisdom of the crowd is quite a well know and well researched concept and has worked very well for me in both horse racing and football.

In effect trial by jury follows this approach.

I tend to use it by taking the average odds offered by bookmakers to determine the expected odds. If one bookie is then offering odds above this there could well be good value. The benefit of this is you don't need to know anything about the horse or it's form.

An example today is the 3.45 at Beverley. The average odds on Queen's Sargent are 5/1 but it is available at 6/1 with BET365. This is excellent value, especially as it is part of the ITV offer where you get a free bet if it wins. I have calculated the edge on this at a very nice 12%.

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