roger2256 Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 May -10 1pt level stakes win only 14.40 Wor American Craftsman 11/1 pp The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannotbebeat Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 (edited) 1.00 Worcester Eglantine Du Seuil 13/8 6.15 Sandown Navello 13/8 Good luck all CNBB. Edited May 27, 2021 by cannotbebeat The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Only looked at Ripon so far 1.55 Purple Bling (PH) £3 win at 8.2 = £21.17 profit if it wins 3.05 Carausius (TM) £3 win at 8.2 (um at 7.4) Not willing to risk more on this one and will let it go if price isn't matched 4.05 Julie Johnston £2 win at 26. The horse has to bounce back. Could have put £1 on it at 16/1' 18/1 in other places. Looks too skinny at that price. As its an outsider, hopefully the price will be matched. Will check later and perhaps take a lesser price of 20/1 for a £1 if available Poss stakes £8 so far. Pity I couldn't check out more races before getting ready and going off to lunch. Back later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 fishable 3.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w: 1.30 Worcester - Sixteen Letters @ 16/1 1.55 Ripon - Jersey Rose @ 9/1 2.05 Worcester - Shaw's Cross @ 12/1 2.30 Ripon - Loch Long @ 20/1 4.05 Ripon - Tommy Tittlemouse @ 16/1 4.45 Worcester - Repetitio @ 8/1 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Flat selection Carlisle 8.20 CROSSING THE BAR 7/4 Wildgarden and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ironjoe Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Ripon 3.05 bollin joan 7/2 2pt win Ripon 5.15 refuge 7/2 2pt win Yadock 3.55 dan de light 6/1 1pt win Carlisle 7.15 noble crusade 7/2 1pt win Sandown 5.45 noble masquerade 3/1 2pt win Sandown 6.50 ranch hand 1pt win Sandown 8.30 urban violet 3/1 3pt win 12 points staked Good luck ? The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 4 hours ago, The Equaliser said: Only looked at Ripon so far 1.55 Purple Bling (PH) £3 win at 8.2 = £21.17 profit if it wins 3.05 Carausius (TM) £3 win at 8.2 (um at 7.4) Not willing to risk more on this one and will let it go if price isn't matched 4.05 Julie Johnston £2 win at 26. The horse has to bounce back. Could have put £1 on it at 16/1' 18/1 in other places. Looks too skinny at that price. As its an outsider, hopefully the price will be matched. Will check later and perhaps take a lesser price of 20/1 for a £1 if available Poss stakes £8 so far. Pity I couldn't check out more races before getting ready and going off to lunch. Back later Adding in a couple at Worcester 4.15 Force Ten (BF/PN) £3.20 at 7.4 = £20.07 profit if it wins 4.45 High Change (STD/Doc) £4.50 win at 5.7 = £20.73 profit if it wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said: Adding in a couple at Worcester 4.15 Force Ten (BF/PN) £3.20 at 7.4 = £20.07 profit if it wins 4.45 High Change (STD/Doc) £4.50 win at 5.7 = £20.73 profit if it wins No luck so far. 8.50 Carl 8.50 Carl Inside Intel £2 win at 17 (um at 13.5 so far) Sandown selections 5.45 Sunsupgunsup (GD5) £3 win at 8.4 6.15 Ebro River £4.50 win at 5.6 (um 5.2) 6.50 Lismore (JS) £2 win at 12.5 = £22.54 if wins 8.30 Final Watch (HD) £2.50 at 9.4 = £18.63 & Buxted Too (WB) £2.50 win at 9.71 = £18.90 if it wins Will tot up total stakes later Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 I've backed 6 odds on shots today and all have lost ! 4 of them were part of a strategy I was testing purely based on odds on horses. Today has been the final nail in the coffin for this strategy, it is now showing a loss after over a year so will be consigned to my systems rubbish bin. Offramp, LEE-GRAYS and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 7 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Flat selection Carlisle 8.20 CROSSING THE BAR 7/4 Won at 3/1. After a poor run with these selections (2 winners from the first 18) 3 consecutive winners have dragged it in to a small profit. 5 / 21 LSP 0.25. The Equaliser, LEE-GRAYS, Wildgarden and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 5 hours ago, The Equaliser said: No luck so far. 8.50 Carl 8.50 Carl Inside Intel £2 win at 17 (um at 13.5 so far) Sandown selections 5.45 Sunsupgunsup (GD5) £3 win at 8.4 6.15 Ebro River £4.50 win at 5.6 (um 5.2) 6.50 Lismore (JS) £2 win at 12.5 = £22.54 if wins 8.30 Final Watch (HD) £2.50 at 9.4 = £18.63 & Buxted Too (WB) £2.50 win at 9.71 = £18.90 if it wins Will tot up total stakes later RESULTS UPDATE It all worked at right on the night. Laid out £32.20 and got back £49.33, therefore £17.13 net profit on the day. I was a bit annoyed that I got talked out of backing Euchen Glen in the 7.25 at Sandown ridden by Paul Mulrennan for Jim Goldie which won st 20/1. Paul has had a couple of winners for this trainer recently but all the media narrative put me off. I only needed a £1 on it 20/1 to make my profit. Stupid!!! My new balance is £962.33 (Bank £1056.22). Five UK flat meetings tomorrow and one over the jumps. I feel tired just thinking about looking through all the races MCLARKE, gbettle and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I've backed 6 odds on shots today and all have lost ! 4 of them were part of a strategy I was testing purely based on odds on horses. Today has been the final nail in the coffin for this strategy, it is now showing a loss after over a year so will be consigned to my systems rubbish bin. Good for you. I have found it very hard to steer clear of the favourites in the past. Now I am trying to look beyond them and their nearest rivals to get some real value out of backing longer priced horses. I believe that the mains sports media whether it be the Racing Post or At The Races lead us all by the hand to conclude that races will be won by the market leaders. This is obviously a "bookies" game, although I haven't done any analysis to prove that by backing the top selections which e.g. take up over 50% of the market share in each race actually produces a loss over time. By narrowing my selections down using the top/in form jockeys and apprentices I have fewer horses to consider and then trying to see through all the negativity given out by the media and focus on what is possible despite possibly a couple of bad previous runs will, I hope lead to some success in what is at best imo a difficult medium to make a long term steady regular profit. gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 I think you will probably lose less on odds on favourites if you bet randomly but it has proved difficult to develop a profitable strategy. A quick analysis of all results so far this year is :- Odds on ROI -9% 1/1 to 19/2 -14% 10/1+ -33%. All these numbers are at SP. The only profitable area is 1/4 and below which shows a profit of 7%, with 63 winners from 70 runners. The Equaliser and gbettle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 11 hours ago, The Equaliser said: Good for you. I have found it very hard to steer clear of the favourites in the past. Now I am trying to look beyond them and their nearest rivals to get some real value out of backing longer priced horses. I believe that the mains sports media whether it be the Racing Post or At The Races lead us all by the hand to conclude that races will be won by the market leaders. This is obviously a "bookies" game, although I haven't done any analysis to prove that by backing the top selections which e.g. take up over 50% of the market share in each race actually produces a loss over time. By narrowing my selections down using the top/in form jockeys and apprentices I have fewer horses to consider and then trying to see through all the negativity given out by the media and focus on what is possible despite possibly a couple of bad previous runs will, I hope lead to some success in what is at best imo a difficult medium to make a long term steady regular profit. I'm a big fan of the Wisdom of The Crowd, especially when the fav is NOT tipped by any newspaper \ online tipster MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 22 hours ago, gbettle said: I'm a big fan of the Wisdom of The Crowd, especially when the fav is NOT tipped by any newspaper \ online tipster Hmmm. One of my favourites books is called "Against The Crowd" by Alan Potts published in 1995. I must say I have never made any money at all by following the crowd in any way shape or form. My very best wishes to you if you have cracked it. As for favourites that haven't been the subject to media hype I don't believe that these are are created by wise people in the crowds. They are created by bookmakers trying to limit their liabilities. We can all remember recent attempted coups when 33/1 shots have gone off at say 6/4 favourite. Sometimes they work but more often than not if there is any value to be had in the bet it has long since gone. I know that my recent change in betting strategy of looking away from the favourites and trying to find value in the non hyped up selections through jockey bookings is different but it pays off handsomely when it works. I would even go as far as to say that I am able to afford a smile to my fellow punters when the favourite does go in and my selection is beaten out of contention as I do feel for my fellow friends. gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 The wisdom of the crowd is quite a well know and well researched concept and has worked very well for me in both horse racing and football. In effect trial by jury follows this approach. I tend to use it by taking the average odds offered by bookmakers to determine the expected odds. If one bookie is then offering odds above this there could well be good value. The benefit of this is you don't need to know anything about the horse or it's form. An example today is the 3.45 at Beverley. The average odds on Queen's Sargent are 5/1 but it is available at 6/1 with BET365. This is excellent value, especially as it is part of the ITV offer where you get a free bet if it wins. I have calculated the edge on this at a very nice 12%. gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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