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2020 European Championship Top Scorer Odds


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It would be typical of Werner to be top scorer after looking so average in the Premier League.

I'll be taking Griezmann. Came 2nd to Kane at the World Cup and I can't see England making the last 4, even. I see France as the clear favourites. The only worry/downside is that they have a tough group. 

The other that I'm going for is Lukaku. Finished 3rd at the World Cup and with some of the talent behind him, even I could score a bag full of goals :D 

2pts R.Lukaku Golden Boot 7/1 bet365
2pts E/W A.Griezmann Golden Boot 25/1 bet365 (4 places, 1/4)

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Ok, to satisfy my fancy for a couple of big priced outsiders that could challenge for a "place" I've gone for the following.

2 points e/w on Wind (Denmark) at 150/1 365 (late swerve from Eriksen)

2 points e/w on Isak (Sweden) at 130/1 Lads

Also I've had 3 points on Jorginho top Italy goalscorer at 33/1 Hills. Perhaps needs them to have a bad tournament where he scores a couple of pens but it's one of those bets where you get the idea in your head and, when you see the price, would rather chuck a few quid at it than leave it alone.

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Top scorer is a tricky one. Kane is looking a strong favourite. Even if they only get to semi finals England are so attack minded that they should score a few. I'm not sure on Werner. I do really rate him but Germany have such a tough group and he's only scored 15 goals in 38 appearances for Germany anyway. Throw in his lack of confidence since signing for Chelsea and it's looking a long shot. Griezmann is looking a decent shout. Looked sharp against Wales.

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On 6/3/2021 at 3:09 PM, Fader said:

I'll be taking Griezmann. Came 2nd to Kane at the World Cup and I can't see England making the last 4, even. I see France as the clear favourites. The only worry/downside is that they have a tough group. 

 

18 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Griezmann is looking a decent shout. Looked sharp against Wales.

SX have gone up with player goals spreads for (so far) England, France and Germany. Griezmann is quoted at 1.6 to buy which, at first glance, feels like a cheap buy to me. Lose 1.6 times your stake should he fail to score, 0.6 if he gets one and a profit for 2 or more. The only other players who are quoted at 1 or more to buy are:

Kane at 3.2, Sterling at 1.1, Mbappe at 2.4, Giroud at 1.2, Benzema at 1.1, Gnabry at 1.3 and Werner at 1.2.

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7 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

 

SX have gone up with player goals spreads for (so far) England, France and Germany. Griezmann is quoted at 1.6 to buy which, at first glance, feels like a cheap buy to me. Lose 1.6 times your stake should he fail to score, 0.6 if he gets one and a profit for 2 or more. The only other players who are quoted at 1 or more to buy are:

Kane at 3.2, Sterling at 1.1, Mbappe at 2.4, Giroud at 1.2, Benzema at 1.1, Gnabry at 1.3 and Werner at 1.2.

Gnabry is one name that just won't go away. I didn't realise he's scored 15 goals in 21 caps for Germany. Incredible return given he's not really an out and out striker like some of the other names being considered. Could be the dark horse given Germany's potential path to the latter stages and their group.

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22 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Gnabry is one name that just won't go away. I didn't realise he's scored 15 goals in 21 caps for Germany. Incredible return given he's not really an out and out striker like some of the other names being considered. Could be the dark horse given Germany's potential path to the latter stages and their group.

I was inclining towards a small bet on him, the trouble being that the best price available was 35/1 with a couple of firms not offering place betting then 33/1 with a firm not willing to lay a decent stake. Then SPIN went up with their Golden Boot Index that pays 100 points for the winner then 75, 50, 33, 25, 20, 10 and 5 down to 8th place which makes much more appeal.

Buy Gnabry Golden Boot Index for 4 points at 4 with SPIN

If you equate it to 8 points e/w (total risk being 16 points) it's a better return for the win or any of the next 3 places and a return for an extra 4 places on top of that. Last time out, Griezmann took the 100 points for the winner and 6 players with 3 goals got 35.5 points each with the 5 points for 8th place being shared among anyone with 2 goals. I think this market is worth a closer look for any other potentially cheap buys who you think have a chance of scoring 3 or more goals.

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/international-euro-2020-all-markets/group_a.9ab5f291-591e-4279-b96a-4411446cdee7/euro-2020-golden-boot-index

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On 6/5/2021 at 2:00 PM, harry_rag said:

SPIN went up with their Golden Boot Index that pays 100 points for the winner then 75, 50, 33, 25, 20, 10 and 5 down to 8th place.

Last time out, Griezmann took the 100 points for the winner and 6 players with 3 goals got 35.5 points each with the 5 points for 8th place being shared among anyone with 2 goals. I think this market is worth a closer look for any other potentially cheap buys who you think have a chance of scoring 3 or more goals.

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/international-euro-2020-all-markets/group_a.9ab5f291-591e-4279-b96a-4411446cdee7/euro-2020-golden-boot-index

Ok, so here's my list of players who I've gone for as a cheap buy in this market, on the basis that I can see them getting 2 or 3 goals and out-running their price. Let me know if you think there are any real lemons or decent picks in there! All bought for 4 points so a total risk of 28 points.

Jorginho (Italy) at 0.5 - Takes penalties, 3 goals in qualifying, 5 in his last 18 competitive games

Cherysev (Russia) at 0.5 - Perhaps the least guaranteed starter but scored 5 in qualifying, has 12 in 30 caps, all coming in his last 16 competitive games

Calhanoglu (Turkey) at 1 - Only 1 in qualifying but 13 in 55 caps and 5 in his last 21 competitive games

Foden (England) at 1.5 - 2 from his 6 caps so far, scored 9 for Man City in the league and favourite to be young player of the tournament

De Bruyne (Belgium) at 1.5 - 4 in qualifying, 21 in 80 caps and 7 in 18 competitive games

Pukki (Finland) at 2 - scores the lion's share of his country's goals, 10 in qualifying and 18 in his last 24 competitive games (many in games where they were underdogs)

 

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19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Ok, so here's my list of players who I've gone for as a cheap buy in this market, on the basis that I can see them getting 2 or 3 goals and out-running their price. Let me know if you think there are any real lemons or decent picks in there! All bought for 4 points so a total risk of 28 points.

Jorginho (Italy) at 0.5 - Takes penalties, 3 goals in qualifying, 5 in his last 18 competitive games

Cherysev (Russia) at 0.5 - Perhaps the least guaranteed starter but scored 5 in qualifying, has 12 in 30 caps, all coming in his last 16 competitive games

Calhanoglu (Turkey) at 1 - Only 1 in qualifying but 13 in 55 caps and 5 in his last 21 competitive games

Foden (England) at 1.5 - 2 from his 6 caps so far, scored 9 for Man City in the league and favourite to be young player of the tournament

De Bruyne (Belgium) at 1.5 - 4 in qualifying, 21 in 80 caps and 7 in 18 competitive games

Pukki (Finland) at 2 - scores the lion's share of his country's goals, 10 in qualifying and 18 in his last 24 competitive games (many in games where they were underdogs)

 

Hmmm, it'll be interesting to see if any of these pay out. I mean, if you're going for set piece takers or penalty takers then there's always a chance they'll pay out in a market like this. I'm not sure Jorginho or Calhanoglu will score much because I can see our group being very short on goals. All four teams have fantastic defensive records over recent years. Foden is a big call. This could be his breakthrough tournament and I can certainly see him getting a goal or two. He'd also be worth backing in an assists market. Pukki as a striker is an interesting one. Finland might struggle to make the last 16 but, as you say, he still scores most of their goals and grabbed 10 in qualifying so he knows how to score at this level.

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20 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Foden is a big call. This could be his breakthrough tournament and I can certainly see him getting a goal or two. He'd also be worth backing in an assists market.

I'm sure some of the fixed odds firms have player assist markets (either over/under lines or most assists for their country). SX have quoted him at 0.7-1 assist so a buy if you can't see him not getting at least one and fancy him for more. Only Grealish and Kane are price slightly higher. They've added player goal and assist markets for a lot more teams now so I'll be casting an eye over their offerings and seeing if they flag any intereting bets (spread or fixed odds).

Gnabry is up from 4 to 6 on the top scorer index I've noticed so got the value there!

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3 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

golden boot: bought diogo jota at 2 (sporting)

I was looking at him but the price was suspended for a while. It looked like he was priced at 1.5 prior to that. The extra half point has, for some reason, put me off! I think I'll leave you to that one rather than jinx you now. You can thank me after the tournament or when he scores his 6th goal! :eyes

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4 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

i might as well join the party bets so far:

top gs and winner : france and kane  50/1,france and lukaku 50/1 b365

player goals : bought dries mertens @1 (spreadex)

golden boot: bought diogo jota at 2 (sporting)

 

Diogo Jota is a risk because of the Group of Death they are in but it's also potentially worth backing because I still think Portugal will endure this tournament. France to win and Harry Kane to win top scorer at 50/1 is an incredible price!

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11 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Harry Kane to win top scorer at 50/1 is an incredible price

That's an interesting take, it certainly makes the 16/1 for England and Kane look skinny and is a bit better than the best odds for each outcome being multiplied together. It's shortened to 33/1 with 365 under the sheer weight of @waynecoyne 's money but is still 50/1 in at least one place.

Not a market I would ever expect to offer value (and so many possible outcomes to sift through) but I can see the attraction at that price.

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11 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Diogo Jota is a risk because of the Group of Death they are in but it's also potentially worth backing because I still think Portugal will endure this tournament. France to win and Harry Kane to win top scorer at 50/1 is an incredible price!

it may be the group of death @StevieDay1983but the top 4 3rd place teams qualify so all the big 3 in that group should progress

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1 hour ago, waynecoyne said:

Giroud is 60/1 top goalscorer with unibet. It might be worth a small interest.

Was curious as to what SPIN were quoting on their Golden Boot index but he's suspended at the moment. A few more players seem to have been added to the list so I'll have a trawl this afternoon. My best "investments" so far would seem to be Foden (up from 1.5 to 4) and Gnabry (up from 4 to 7).

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7 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Was curious as to what SPIN were quoting on their Golden Boot index but he's suspended at the moment. A few more players seem to have been added to the list so I'll have a trawl this afternoon. My best "investments" so far would seem to be Foden (up from 1.5 to 4) and Gnabry (up from 4 to 7).

Always nice to get some sort of vindication of value @harry_rag

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25 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

My best "investments" so far would seem to be Foden (up from 1.5 to 4) and Gnabry (up from 4 to 7).

SPIN and SX at odds over Foden's tournament goal minutes quote, the former go 55-70 but the latter just 27-42.

I'd probably be a buyer at 42 but I'm happy enough with my interest in him via the GB index. (If you want to avoid the randomness of when he scores any goals then his total goals look cheap at 0.8 too; SPIN's quote has him in for more like 1.4 goals.)

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10 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

SPIN and SX at odds over Foden's tournament goal minutes quote, the former go 55-70 but the latter just 27-42.

I'd probably be a buyer at 42 but I'm happy enough with my interest in him via the GB index. (If you want to avoid the randomness of when he scores any goals then his total goals look cheap at 0.8 too; SPIN's quote has him in for more like 1.4 goals.)

cheers @harry_rag bought at 0.8

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2 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

benzema went off injured last night with a thigh injury. Giroud came on and scored 2 goals.

Giroud is 60/1 top goalscorer with unibet. It might be worth a small interest.

I bloody love Giroud! I'd say backing him as an e/w is well worth a shout!

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