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French Racing 🇫🇷🐎


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Posted (edited)

Today's selections (please bare in mind prices I advertise are what I got, not what is available but I will try and post immediately after placing from now on to give people the best chance to get the price. I get BOG so P/L will be settled at BOG)....

1120 Strasbourg Good Friend 5/4 2pt win

1637 Le Croise-Laroche Stanzo 6/4 1pt win

3pts total staked.

Good luck if you follow.

Edit = P/L will be updated daily and selections will be up the night before.

 

Edited by Barnes1882
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Wins returning 7.1pts +4.1pt profit Overall = +9.45pts

I've had a good year so far with 6 profitable months but July is proving disappointing. I think we try and find logic for good or bad runs but I suspect it's just the randomness of numbers.

Spiorad wins 9/2 to return 3.7pts.  1/1 so far today, with one more to run later.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

1 - 3pts mate

Correction to this sorry, will be a 1-5pt stake plan but 3,4 & 5pt selections will be rare I would imagine. 

So for me will be between a £10-£50 stake.

Edited by Barnes1882
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Posted (edited)
 

1120 Good Friend wins to return 4.5pts

1637 Stanzo turned over into 2nd by a bit of a plot job winner 16/1 into 12/1 had beat a total of 2 horses in it's 2 runs before starting at 25/1 and 100/1

3pts staked and 4.5pts returned ending the day 1.5pts in profit.

Overall = +1.6pts 

Edited by Barnes1882
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I am going to put the two horses that were very nearly bets in here but I want to make it clear that I haven't backed them and I won't be backing them so regardless of the result, they will have no impact on the P/L. Just putting them in here to see if the right decision was made....

1115 Vichy Diablotine 7/4

1223 Vichy Areen 1/1

Both have very good chances on paper but although Diablotine was visually impressive on debut, there have been mixed messages from horses who have run again which were behind it on debut. Ma Noire could also be a big threat so just too risky to bet. Areen has some very strong form in the book but small field races in France can be very tactical affairs and it also has an unbeaten Fabre runner who could be anything. 

So that's the two horses that were nearly bets but in the end just had too many question marks around them.

No bets for me at all today as I am only backing the French to ensure my betting bank accurately reflects my P/L. I will not just back horses for the sake of it and potentially risk the profit I've made so far. As mentioned, both have great chances but they're just too risky for me.

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4 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

I am going to put the two horses that were very nearly bets in here but I want to make it clear that I haven't backed them and I won't be backing them so regardless of the result, they will have no impact on the P/L. Just putting them in here to see if the right decision was made....

1115 Vichy Diablotine 7/4

1223 Vichy Areen 1/1

Both have very good chances on paper but although Diablotine was visually impressive on debut, there have been mixed messages from horses who have run again which were behind it on debut. Ma Noire could also be a big threat so just too risky to bet. Areen has some very strong form in the book but small field races in France can be very tactical affairs and it also has an unbeaten Fabre runner who could be anything. 

So that's the two horses that were nearly bets but in the end just had too many question marks around them.

No bets for me at all today as I am only backing the French to ensure my betting bank accurately reflects my P/L. I will not just back horses for the sake of it and potentially risk the profit I've made so far. As mentioned, both have great chances but they're just too risky for me.

1115 Vichy Diablotine 7/4 wins

Unfortunately the first selection wins. Annoying and frustrating when that happens but I believe it's all about being strict and sticking to a system so hopefully long term I will save more money by being cautious than worrying about missing a winner. 

Sounds awful but really hope the 2nd horse loses as that would mean an outlay of 2pts and return of 2.75pts so I could cope with missing out on +.75pts easier than missing out on +2.75pts profit if the next horse wins.

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8 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

1115 Vichy Diablotine 7/4 wins

Unfortunately the first selection wins. Annoying and frustrating when that happens but I believe it's all about being strict and sticking to a system so hopefully long term I will save more money by being cautious than worrying about missing a winner. 

Sounds awful but really hope the 2nd horse loses as that would mean an outlay of 2pts and return of 2.75pts so I could cope with missing out on +.75pts easier than missing out on +2.75pts profit if the next horse wins.

2nd horse 1223 Vichy Areen 1/1 lost so the day would have ended +.75pts in profit but as stated I didn't back and won't be on P/L.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Saturday's selections....

1105 Toulouse Qeyaady 5/4 2pt win

1450 Auteuil Lola Oak 11/4 1pt win

3pts staked in total.

Some reasoning for the selections....

Toulouse 11.05 Qeyaady. 3rd run for the in form Francis Rohaut stable, on debut was very slow away before running on under fairly tender handling into a closing 3rd 3lengths behind the winner Wadnah went on to run 2nd in a decent Chantilly stakes race with the 36.5 (80 uk) rated Absinth 2lengths back in 3rd, that sort of rating would be good enough to win a normal maiden here at Toulouse, 4th in Qeyaadys debut race was Agathe Etoile who re-opposes tomorrow think this one will do very well to turn around the 1+length deficit with the selection. Qeyaady had his 2nd outing over this c&d and again was slowly away though not as poorly as on debut and was flying at the finish that day to be beaten just a nose. With the Rohaut stable in such good form as of late and given the expected improvement it would be a surprise if Qeyaady was to get turned over here.

Auteil 2.50 Lola Oak. Thought this was going to be the pick of the 3 Nicolle entrants in this race and riding arrangements seem to confirm as such with Angelo Zuliani in the plate. Still lightly raced Lola Oak has shown steady improvement with racing culminating last time with a very good 2nd to Starlit Du Mesnil in a listed hurdle here at Auteil with the rest of the field 15lengths and more behind, Starlit Du Mesnil is a very well fancied entrant in the Grade1 4yo championship hurdle on Sunday, would think the main danger tomorrow could be Belle Promise if that one is on a going day having won a decent race at this track the last day but even if Belle Promise is on a going day imo will struggle to cope with the progressive Lola Oak.

Edited by Barnes1882
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1 hour ago, Barnes1882 said:

Not a pts bet but just a market heads up, 1120 Moulins Heidi Du Soleil 1/2 currently in France plenty of 15/8 7/4 in U.K.

Just the one bet today which I posted yesterday (3pts). The quoted horse in the 1120 this morning reaffirms my decision to stick to the pts. I didn't back it and luckily it came 2nd. I put it up as it was interesting the pts difference between the UK & France. From now on, will only be putting pts bets in here as don't want to tempt anyone away if they're following the pts like me. 

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