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Racing Chat - Tuesday 18th May


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I'm liking a lot of horses today, these are just some...

 

Each-Way's

Swell Song 16/1 - 12:30 Brighton - 1.5pt ew (3pts)

Omany Amber 8/1 - 14:55 Nottingham - 1.5pts ew (3pts)

Moment Of Peace 33/1 - 15:55 Brighton - 1.5pts ew (3pts)

De Vegas Kid 6/1 - 15:20 Brighton - 1.5pts ew (3pts)

Final Voyage 10/1 - 16:10 Wolverhampton - 1.5pt ew (3pts)

 

Win Only

Iconic Muddle 15/8  -  17:55 Huntingdon - 2pt win

Stoney Mountain 3/1 - 19:25 Huntingdon - 2pt win

Grange Ranger 4/1 - 18:05 Hexham - 2pt win

Thegoaheadman 7/4 - 18:45 Limerick - 2pt win

Table Mountain 11/4 - 17:25 Huntingdon - 2pt win

Tullys Touch 15/8 - 19:55 Huntingdon - 2pt win

 

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Fascinating day for me whilst I look at my top jockey's and how to play today

Only a couple so far.

1.10 Nott Tay Tay £2.00 place at 14.5 for £26.46 3TBP on Tay Tay with Cieren Fallon aboard.  Too difficult to choose among the top 3 in the market.  At a push would have gone for Neptune Legend for value

1.45 Nott Goodwood Glen (SDS) £3.30 win at 7.6 = £19.38 if it wins; plus a £2 win cover bet on Just Jacob (TM) at 5.0 = £4.61 profit if it wins.  Could have got 8/1 about this horse last night.

Therein lies the crux of the perennial problem. Has the value gone on Just Jacob?.  Goodwood Glen has been fairly steady at around 11/2 so I'll take Silvester to land the spoils and try and cover myself if Tom delivers the goods instead.

Back later

 

 

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All prices Bet365:

12.30 Brighton - 1pt e/w Giovanni Tiepolo @ 10/1

1.00 Brighton - 3pts win Granary Queen @ 9/4 (wouldn't normally go this short but very confident on this one today)

1.20 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Frame Rate @ 11/1

1.35 Brighton - 1pt e/w Apache Jewel @ 20/1

2.10 Brighton - 1pt e/w Fact or Fable @ 16/1

3.40 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Turquoise Kingdom @ 14/1

4.30 Nottingham - 1pt e/w Burscough @ 20/1

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1 hour ago, DeeRobster said:

I'm liking a lot of horses today, these are just some...

 

Each-Way's

Swell Song 16/1 - 12:30 Brighton - 1.5pt ew (3pts)

Omany Amber 8/1 - 14:55 Nottingham - 1.5pts ew (3pts)

Moment Of Peace 33/1 - 15:55 Brighton - 1.5pts ew (3pts)

De Vegas Kid 6/1 - 15:20 Brighton - 1.5pts ew (3pts)

Final Voyage 10/1 - 16:10 Wolverhampton - 1.5pt ew (3pts)

 

Win Only

Iconic Muddle 15/8  -  17:55 Huntingdon - 2pt win

Stoney Mountain 3/1 - 19:25 Huntingdon - 2pt win

Grange Ranger 4/1 - 18:05 Hexham - 2pt win

Thegoaheadman 7/4 - 18:45 Limerick - 2pt win

Table Mountain 11/4 - 17:25 Huntingdon - 2pt win

Tullys Touch 15/8 - 19:55 Huntingdon - 2pt win

 

Swell Song ended up bolting from under the gate, jockey got a sore one. 

Bet Omany Amber 9/1 skyb

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31 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Swell Song ended up bolting from under the gate, jockey got a sore one. 

Bet Omany Amber 9/1 skyb

 

Yea, pity about swell being a non-runner as I felt it had a good chance.

 

I like Omany Amber, ran it through another spreadsheet I use for race type and field size using RPR and TS statistics.

Interesting over a sample of 116 races of this type and size, spot form rank #3 has the highest win strike rate at 24.14%. Omany Amber and Deep Impression are joint ranked #3 with an RPR of 84, but I don't think Deep Impression has a chance here based n other stats I use. So Omany Amber is my choice.

Another interesting figure is Swallodale which is ranked RPR #2, on my spreadsheet this shows at the highest profit figure for E/W. Currently at 12/1.

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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Fascinating day for me whilst I look at my top jockey's and how to play today

Only a couple so far.

1.10 Nott Tay Tay £2.00 place at 14.5 for £26.46 3TBP on Tay Tay with Cieren Fallon aboard.  Too difficult to choose among the top 3 in the market.  At a push would have gone for Neptune Legend for value

1.45 Nott Goodwood Glen (SDS) £3.30 win at 7.6 = £19.38 if it wins; plus a £2 win cover bet on Just Jacob (TM) at 5.0 = £4.61 profit if it wins.  Could have got 8/1 about this horse last night.

Therein lies the crux of the perennial problem. Has the value gone on Just Jacob?.  Goodwood Glen has been fairly steady at around 11/2 so I'll take Silvester to land the spoils and try and cover myself if Tom delivers the goods instead.

Back later

 

 

3.30 Nott Call My Bluff (SDS) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46 if it wins

3.40 Wolv Soyounique £2 at 2.86 = 80p ins bet.  Clegane (RK) £2.90 at 8.4 = £19.07 profit if Richard Kingscote lands the spoils

 

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19 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

425 brighton Alchemystique 9.8 betfair exchange! only week later since its 50-1 win will look to transfer all weather form to turf. i like the price against untested fascinating lips and wouldnt be surprised if odds shorten.

looked good inrunning but wasnt to be late on. unplaced

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2 hours ago, DeeRobster said:

Not the worst day for the each-way bets, swells was a non-runner. Omney and and Vegas kid placed as did voyage. Only moment of peace lost.

 

over to the win only bets this evening now 🤞

 

 

9ACCAE7A-30D5-4F88-B8B8-FFD9D106D1B3.jpeg

Sorry to rain on your parade, but Final Voyage was 3rd in a 7 runner race (loss) and De Vegas Kid was 3rd in a 5 runner race (loss)

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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

3.30 Nott Call My Bluff (SDS) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46 if it wins

3.40 Wolv Soyounique £2 at 2.86 = 80p ins bet.  Clegane (RK) £2.90 at 8.4 = £19.07 profit if Richard Kingscote lands the spoils

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Lovely to see Sylvester do the business for me on Call My Bluff, pity I didn't put it up as my nap.  My fancied bets lost but the profit on my winner netted me £14.26 on the day.  My new balance is now £940.12 (Bank £1,056.22).  Pity I missed Oisin Murphy's 14/1 winner and of course Tom Marquand's only winner of the day at 9/1.  It looks like a good strategy to pick decent priced outsiders when in the hands of the top Jocks, the problem of course is finding them

5 meetings in the UK tomorrow; two over the jumps and 3 on the flat.  We have the Skeltons at Southwell and Bryony Frost/Paul Nichols at Warwick.  The flat meetings have several mixed up top jockeys at their venues.  Yarmouth, WB, OM, JS, AA,SDS,AK +CF, MG and GB for apprentices.  At Ayr there is JF, DT, PH and RK; whilst at Kempton we have JD, HD, Hayley?, TM, MC and LM.  Should be fun trying to find some winners from the various line ups

   

 

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