L1, L2, & Scottish Predictions > May 15th - 20th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

It's a decisive week of games coming up across League 1, League 2, and the Scottish Premiership. The play-offs begin in England so every game matters and in Scotland it's the final regular season matches so the campaign draws to a close. Give us your predictions down below! 

[StevieDay1983]

Oxford vs Blackpool

The first semi-final from the League One play-offs is set to take place at 6pm BST on Tuesday night when Oxford play Blackpool at the Kassam Stadium. It's a fantastic opportunity for the home side who sneaked into the top 6 on the last day of the season but they face a tricky opponent in a travelling team who have experience of going up through the play-offs over recent years.

Oxford haven't been in the top two tiers of English football since the year 2000. Karl Robinson has seen his team move to within three games of ending that run. The U's hammered Burton 4-0 in their final league games of the season to pip Charlton and Portsmouth to the final play-off spot. 6 wins from their last 7 games has seen United come into the play-offs with some momentum. They suffered defeat to Wycombe in last season's League One play-off final so will feel that there's a chance to earn some retribution on the cruel mistress that is the play-offs. The team will have high hopes for this game possessing the 3rd best home record in the division.

Blackpool are hoping to take a step closer to getting back to the promised land of the Premier League. It's now over 10 years since the Seasiders reached the top flight and they've been back down to the bottom since but are on the way back up. Head coach Neil Critchley is going about his work under the radar with the club finishing in 3rd place this season and only shy of automatic promotion by 7 points. It's just 2 defeats from their last 22 league games and the team won their remaining 4 league games of the season. They will also be quietly optimistic ahead of this game having won 2-0 on their previous visit to this stadium back in March.

If Oxford are going to get a win here then they'll need to do something they haven't managed against Blackpool this season and that's score a goal. The 2-0 loss at home and the 0-0 draw away has handed Robinson with a conundrum he needs to solve. The visitors hardly have a superb away record having won less than 50% of their away league games this season so I feel maybe this is Oxford's time to get one over on their opponents.

Oxford to Win @ 2.48 with SBK

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.64 with SBK

[StevieDay1983]

Newport County vs Forest Green Rovers

The League Two play-off semi-finals begin on Tuesday night with the 8:15pm BST kick-off between Newport County and Forest Green Rovers at Rodney Parade. There was very little separating these two clubs in the league table but can either side take an advantage from this game going into the second leg? Or will they cancel each other out in this first leg?

Newport County have had an interesting season to say the least. Michael Flynn's team had a cracking start to the season but then tailed off slightly during the middle part of the campaign. However, a late surge of just 1 loss in their last 9 league games helped propel the team to a 5th placed finish and just 6 points outside finishing in the automatic promotion spaces. The Exiles have boasted an impressive home record this season with just 5 defeats from their 23 home league games with no other side managing to earn more points at home than County. The defence clearly became key to their run of results at the back end of the campaign with 4 clean sheets being kept in their last 5 league matches.

Forest Green Rovers are in the League Two play-offs for the second time in three seasons after the club finished in 6th place. Dale Vince took the controversial decision to part company with former manager Mark Cooper on 11th April after a winless run of 6 league games that including losing 4 league matches in a row as the club's hopes of a play-off position came under doubt. The appointment of Jimmy Ball as interim head coach has proven a masterstroke with the club losing just 1 of their last 6 league games. Back-to-back wins in the league ensured they entered the play-offs in good form and also denied a play-off spot to both Salford City and Exeter.

I've never bought into this supposed rivalry between Cardiff and Newport County so I'm fully backing the South Wales side in this one. It helps that my partner lives literally opposite the stadium and my friends interviewed former Newport County defender Mark O'Brien for their podcast the other week. I feel they should have enough to get a win here and they'll surely be devastated if they don't reach the final this time around. I'm backing their defence to carry on their good work and help County end this torrid run of having never beaten Forest Green Rovers at home.

Newport County to Win @ 2.40 with SBK

Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 2.52 with Matchbook

[StevieDay1983]

Lincoln City vs Sunderland

The second game in the first legs of the League One play-off semi-finals is coming up on Wednesday night when Lincoln City play Sunderland in a 6pm BST kick-off at Sincil Bank. All the pressure will be on the away side once again as the "big fish in the small pond" label remains tagged to them but will they fail to achieve their promotion dream once again?

Lincoln City will be delighted to be in this position under Michael Appleton after things seemed so dour after the departure of Danny Cowley. The Imps finished the season in 5th place and will feel this is a situation where the pressure is off them and they have everything to gain. The team don't have the best home record having only managed 9 wins from their 23 home league games this season. It's the first time a team has finished in the top 6 in League One having lost so many matches at home in the league. It was also just 1 win from their final 5 league matches of the season. If they are going to do the business here then Jorge Grant will be key to that success having ended up as the club's top scorer and assist maker.

Sunderland are looking to win promotion back to the Championship at the third time of asking. Lee Johnson is the man at the helm for this latest attempt having replaced former gaffer Phil Parkinson back in December. The Black Cats finished in 4th position and 10 points adrift of the automatic promotion spots. It was a disappointing end to the campaign with just 1 win from their last 9 league games and their fans could well be wondering what would have happened if they'd have avoided such a dour spell and continued their unbeaten run through from February and March where they were undefeated in 12 league games including 9 victories. Still, they are in the play-offs again and with striker Charlie Wyke scoring 30 goals in 53 appearances for the club they have their most lethal front man since Kevin Phillips in their squad.

When these two sides met at Sincil Bank earlier in the season it ended in a 4-0 win for Sunderland. Lincoln City know that a repeat of that score-line will all but end their play-offs hopes before they've even started. Lincoln have competed in play-offs 7 times and have failed to earn promotion in each of the last 6 attempts. The fans will be back tonight and I think that could help Lincoln end their appalling home record this season.

Lincoln City Draw No Bet @ 1.96 with VBet

BTTS @ 2.15 with SportNation

[StevieDay1983]

Tranmere vs Morecambe

The second first leg game in the League Two play-off semi-finals will take place on Thursday night with Tranmere hosting Morecambe in a 6pm BST start at Prenton Park. Will the home team's gamble of sacking manager Keith Hill just before the team entered the play-offs pay off or will they suffer the consequences of a poorly timed decision that was controversial.

Tranmere will head into this game with interim head coach Ian Dawes in charge. He won 4 of his 5 games in charge when he took on the reigns in a caretaker role back in November 2020. It was only 2 wins from the last 11 league games for Rovers but then they did only lose 1 of their final 5 league games to end up finishing in 7th place. Recent home form has given the fans reason to be optimistic ahead of this game with Tranmere unbeaten in their previous 6 home league matches. A return to starting action for striker and top scorer James Vaughan is a huge boost. The former Everton front man has bagged 21 goals in all competitions this season but hasn't started a game since 27th February.

Morecambe may well be the favourites ahead of this game having finished in 4th position but they will be wary of the double issue of the new manager bounce and a return to fitness of Vaughan for Tranmere. The Shrimps narrowly missed out on automatic promotion by 1 point so it'll be interesting to see if they can pick themselves up for these play-offs. Manager Derek Adams saw his team end their campaign in a positive manner with 5 wins from their last 6 league matches. It's also back-to-back wins on the road for the club.

This is one of those games that is close to impossible to call. I just have a feeling that handing Dawes the reigns at this stage could either be a stroke of genius or a total disaster. He did well in his last spell in charge but these are completely different circumstances. Still, Morecambe did end the season well but have they peaked too early? I think I'm going to take a big risk and back Tranmere to win this one.

Tranmere to Win @ 2.50 with SBK

Anytime Scorer: James Vaughan @ 3.10 with Betfair

[_Ghost_]

St Johnstone v Hibs (Scottish Cup Final)

My ratings are coming out pretty similar to the market on this one, however I do think there is (if you look hard enough) slight value on the unders and on Hibs. I think the position of maximum value is combing the two and backing Hibs to win 1-0.

Hibs 1-0 is their most popular winning score this season happening on 5 occasions, St Johnstones most frequent losing scoreline is also 1-0 (6). 13 Hibs games have gone Under 1.5 with 16 of St Johnstones. Of there 4 league meetings this season 3 have finished 1-0 either way (the other was 2-2).

I was quite surprised to find that the historical trends did not support the above with every final in the last 11 years featuring atleast 2 goals.

Bet

0.5pts Hibs to win 1-0 @ 6/1 Bet365 (with Bore Draw Insurance)

Edited May 20, 2021 by jamied02

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

A return to starting action for striker and top scorer James Vaughan is a huge boost. The former Everton front man has bagged 21 goals in all competitions this season but hasn't started a game since 27th February.

I can't knock that bet based on his overall stats thought I'm always wary of backing players making their first start after a long lay off. One thing I did notice was that he's been booked 10 times this season. He's actually been booked in 6 games in 2021 but only scored in 5! (Albeit, to be fair, that includes 3 braces). You could almost make a case for 11/4 shown a card being better value than 21/10 to score a goal!  I'd probably back him to be carded if better than 3/1 was available but, at 11/4 in a game with a low bookings expectation, I'll give it a miss.

One thing I sometimes do (when I've got more time) is look back at who's scored a team's last 25 goals, just to get a feel for who's hot and who's not. It's perhaps noteworthy that it took Tranmere 23 games to score 25 goals whereas it only took Morecambe 14, so that probably suggests Morecambe have the firepower, over 2 legs, to justify their status as favourites. Woolery with 6 goals would be the eyecatcher for Tranmere, until you factor in that he's only scored once since the 27th of Feb! All of his other games came in a one month hot streak. The best way to side with him would be to buy his goal minutes at 13 but it's a swerve for me. No-on else catches the eye for the hosts (who have only managed 12 goals in 17 games since Vaughan's last start).

For Morecambe, Stockton is the obvious standout with 8 of their last 25 goals over those 14 games and 13 in 38 over the season. Mendes Gomes is top scorer with 15 in 43 for the season but only scored 4 of the last 25 goals (including a brace). The only other player with more than 2 of the last 25 is Songo'o with 4 (6 for the season). If you look at his last 8 games he's definitely "due one" tonight as the scoring pattern is 1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0! At the available prices I'll take an interest in Stockton and Songo'o.

20 points on Stockton to score at 5/2 with PP

6 points on Songo'o to score at 8/1 with 365 and buy his goal rush plus for 2 points at 3 with SPIN

(Goal Rush Plus is 25 for 1 goal, 50 for 2+ and 100 for 3+ so a buy at 7 = 8.33 with a bonus in the unlikely event of 2 or more).

 

 

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

I can't knock that bet based on his overall stats thought I'm always wary of backing players making their first start after a long lay off. One thing I did notice was that he's been booked 10 times this season. He's actually been booked in 6 games in 2021 but only scored in 5! (Albeit, to be fair, that includes 3 braces). You could almost make a case for 11/4 shown a card being better value than 21/10 to score a goal!  I'd probably back him to be carded if better than 3/1 was available but, at 11/4 in a game with a low bookings expectation, I'll give it a miss.

One thing I sometimes do (when I've got more time) is look back at who's scored a team's last 25 goals, just to get a feel for who's hot and who's not. It's perhaps noteworthy that it took Tranmere 23 games to score 25 goals whereas it only took Morecambe 14, so that probably suggests Morecambe have the firepower, over 2 legs, to justify their status as favourites. Woolery with 6 goals would be the eyecatcher for Tranmere, until you factor in that he's only scored once since the 27th of Feb! All of his other games came in a one month hot streak. The best way to side with him would be to buy his goal minutes at 13 but it's a swerve for me. No-on else catches the eye for the hosts (who have only managed 12 goals in 17 games since Vaughan's last start).

For Morecambe, Stockton is the obvious standout with 8 of their last 25 goals over those 14 games and 13 in 38 over the season. Mendes Gomes is top scorer with 15 in 43 for the season but only scored 4 of the last 25 goals (including a brace). The only other player with more than 2 of the last 25 is Songo'o with 4 (6 for the season). If you look at his last 8 games he's definitely "due one" tonight as the scoring pattern is 1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0! At the available prices I'll take an interest in Stockton and Songo'o.

20 points on Stockton to score at 5/2 with PP

6 points on Songo'o to score at 8/1 with 365 and buy his goal rush plus for 2 points at 3 with SPIN

(Goal Rush Plus is 25 for 1 goal, 50 for 2+ and 100 for 3+ so a buy at 7 = 8.33 with a bonus in the unlikely event of 2 or more).

 

 

Yeah, I agree. I just feel given the occasion that the romantic in me can't ignore it. I did see Stockton being tipped as an anytime scorer bet by a few people so that's a decent price. Madness about his scoring pattern! 

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

One thing I did notice was that he's been booked 10 times this season. He's actually been booked in 6 games in 2021 but only scored in 5! (Albeit, to be fair, that includes 3 braces). You could almost make a case for 11/4 shown a card being better value than 21/10 to score a goal!  I'd probably back him to be carded if better than 3/1 was available but, at 11/4 in a game with a low bookings expectation, I'll give it a miss.