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Racing Chat - Tuesday 4th May


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All prices Bet365:

12.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Subliminal @ 10/1

1.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Amalfi Bay @ 22/1

1.45 Ayr - 1pt e/w Dancing Doug @ 10/1

2.00 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Kingsley Klarion @ 9/1

2.20 Ayr - 2pts win Cooking Fat @ 5/1

2.55 Ayr - 1pt e/w Skipthescales @ 8/1

4.25 Fakenham - 2pts win Robin of Sherwood @ 6/1

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Posted (edited)

Looked at 11 races so far today and nothing truly inspiring for a value bet

2.30 Lin Apollinaire.  Trying to get £10 matched at 3.10.  Currently 2.66 so a way to go.  Need more money for Swiiss Pride.  In great form.  Up 4lbs and a Class 5 winner

8.00 Wolv Far Hope Trying to get £8 matched at 3.45 (um 3.4) and £4 ins bet on Degree at 3.6 um 3.35.  Poss that Far Hope will get matched.  The fly in the ointment could be Heavenly Rose with Hollie Doyle aboard but I would rather go for two lines of form than one and Far Hope looks to be better than Heavenly Rose despite what Timeform say  

£22 poss stakes so far.

I was very disappointed yesterday to find that an insurance lay bet was not matched on Suns Up Guns Up 4.51 at Windsor.  Backed it 29 with an insurance lay at 18.5.  The horse came second but the 18.5 was not matched.  In future I will place my outsider bets in the place market, was 10.5 finishing second.  Money burned lesson learned 🙂  

Doesn't look like Apollinaire will get matched.  Now trading at 2.54.  We'll see.  Far Hope and Degree have got matched though

7.50 Sou Mamoo £3 win at 7.99 = £17.60 if win and Hear The Chimes £3 win at 7.80 = £17.05 if it wins.  Serves me right if Ballycrystal scuppers my bet but its form at 3 miles doesn't look good to me

Back later with outsider place bets

Couldnt find anything suitable.  Apolliinaire not matched thank goodness

7.00 Spirit of Heaven (Hollie Doyle) £2 win at 13.5 = £24.50 profit if it wins

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I find it hard to understand why at the start of summer there is no turf flat racing today but 2 all weather meetings and 3 jumps meetings.

Today's flat selection

Lingfield 3.40

GIFT HORSE 9/4

This system is based on horses drawn higher than 5 that are not CD winners.

3 more jumps meetings tomorrow 😵 it is bizarre .

What happened to your 2nd over 22 days ago over 8-12 system ?

Didn't last long !

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50 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

What happened to your 2nd over 22 days ago over 8-12 system ?

Didn't last long !

No I'll keep running it throughout the season.

My systems generate lots of selections (there were 99 today), I tend to limit myself to 3 bets per day, usually the shortest priced 3, assuming that price is available with the bookies I am allowed to bet with.

There have been 3 selections today for the LTO 2nd system, with a winner at 5/6, a loser and one to run. 

 

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5 hours ago, Ironjoe said:

Overall +9.5

month -11

lingfield 1.00 anmaat 11/10 3pt win won

Lingfield 3.04 four adaay 11/4 1pt win dead heat

Lingfield 3.40 gift horse 2/1 1pt win

1pt treble on above at 22/1

gowran park 4.50 room to roam 16/1 0.5pts EW (4)

7 points staked

Good luck 🤙

 

8 points back so slight profit, 3rd leg of the treble was 2nd by a neck

Overall +10.5 

Month -10

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12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Looked at 11 races so far today and nothing truly inspiring for a value bet

2.30 Lin Apollinaire.  Trying to get £10 matched at 3.10.  Currently 2.66 so a way to go.  Need more money for Swiiss Pride.  In great form.  Up 4lbs and a Class 5 winner

8.00 Wolv Far Hope Trying to get £8 matched at 3.45 (um 3.4) and £4 ins bet on Degree at 3.6 um 3.35.  Poss that Far Hope will get matched.  The fly in the ointment could be Heavenly Rose with Hollie Doyle aboard but I would rather go for two lines of form than one and Far Hope looks to be better than Heavenly Rose despite what Timeform say  

£22 poss stakes so far.

I was very disappointed yesterday to find that an insurance lay bet was not matched on Suns Up Guns Up 4.51 at Windsor.  Backed it 29 with an insurance lay at 18.5.  The horse came second but the 18.5 was not matched.  In future I will place my outsider bets in the place market, was 10.5 finishing second.  Money burned lesson learned 🙂  

Doesn't look like Apollinaire will get matched.  Now trading at 2.54.  We'll see.  Far Hope and Degree have got matched though

7.50 Sou Mamoo £3 win at 7.99 = £17.60 if win and Hear The Chimes £3 win at 7.80 = £17.05 if it wins.  Serves me right if Ballycrystal scuppers my bet but its form at 3 miles doesn't look good to me

Back later with outsider place bets

Couldnt find anything suitable.  Apolliinaire not matched thank goodness

7.00 Spirit of Heaven (Hollie Doyle) £2 win at 13.5 = £24.50 profit if it wins

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

A bit disappointing that Far Hope got beat by a neck by Degree but at least I didn't lose on the race.  With my other bets I lost £5.64 on the day.  My new Balance is £909.82 Bank £1,056.22 so my bad run continues.

Some classy racing at Chester tomorrow

 

 

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