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Racing Chat - Saturday 1st May


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The first classic of the season is held on Saturday at Newmarket. The 2000 Guineas is run over 1 mile of the famous Rowley Mile and despite some rain around the ground is likely to race fast.
 
This season’s renewal looks open and here's my horse by horse guide to the 15 strong field.
 
ALBADRI (Jane Chapple-Hyam) Hollie Doyle
A 200/1 no hoper who will struggle in this company.
 
BATTLEGROUND (Aidan O’Brien) Frankie Dettori
A surprise entrant and one of three that Aidan O’Brien has declared with big race jockey Frankie Dettori in the saddle. Won the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last Summer before shipping to Keeneland for the Breeders Cup where he went off favourite and was a credible 3L runner up to a 33/1 chance when not having the run of the race. Obviously a horse with plenty of talent and is drawn 15 of 15 with the starting stalls in the centre it will be interesting to see if Dettori opts to edge across to this side to look for the golden highway that seemed to help those at the last meeting under the stands side rail.
 
CHINDIT (Richard Hannon) Pat Dobbs
Probably found the ground too soft in the Dewhurst here last October when disappointing although it was interesting that his trainer stated in the week that he felt he may not have handled the dip as well which doesn’t augur well here. A winner of the Greenham on his re-appearance he should relish the step up to a mile.
 
DEVILWALA (Ralph Beckett) Rosa Ryan
Possibly flattered by his 4th beaten 2 3/4L in the Dewhurst last October when 100/1. Lost his shoe when 4th in Craven 5 1/2L behind Master If The Seas and doesn’t look good enough here.
 
LEGION ONF HONOUR (Roger Varian) David Egan
Was well supported when just held by the Gosden’s Megallan at Newcastle on his re-appearance over 1 mile. Will need to step up from that run but it wouldn’t be a total shock were he to out run his big odds here as a lightly raced improver from a good Newmarket stable.
 
LUCKY VEGA (Jessica Harrington) Shane Foley
Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner last August over 6 furlongs and wasn’t disgraced in similar high company on last two starts finishing runner up in the Middle Park on his final start over 6f. Has to prove his stamina here but no real reason why he shouldn’t stay the mile.
 
MASTER OF THE SEAS (Charlie Appleby) William Buick
One of three Charlie Appleby runners and the pick of stable jockey William Buick. A useful juvenile who wintered in Dubai where he was beaten on his run at big odds on by his stable mate Naval Crown. Re-appeared in the Craven where he impressed when beating stable mate La Barossa by 3/4L and has obvious chance although can be a bit of a hot head and was hooded last time.
 
MUTASAABEQ (Charlie Hills) Jim Crowley
Supplemented for this at the cost of £30k following a very impressive win at the Craven meeting when scooting clear to win a four runner event by 6L. That makes it two from two at this track and his time was very good last time. He’s very well bred being out of 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati and could be anything. One for the short list.
 
MYSTERY SMILES (Andrew Balding) Silvestre De Sousa
3rd in the Craven and looks out of his depth here. Hard to fancy.
 
NAVAL CROWN (Charlie Appleby) Adam Kirby
Turned over his stable mate Master Of The Seas in Dubai this winter over 1 mile and was just run out of it close home when beaten a neck by Tactical in the Free Handicap. Tough and consistent and his price looks too big here.
 
ONE RULER (Charlie Appleby) James Doyle
Smart juvenile,  winning Group 3 here in October on soft ground and ended the season finishing 2nd to Mac Swinney in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. William Buick has jumped ship though to ride Masters Of The Seas which is a worry.
 
POETIC FLARE (Jim Bolger) Kevin Manning
Flopped in the Dewhurst last October but bounced back to win both his starts since including the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial in April by 1 1/2L from Ace Aussie. Has been well supported this week and you can never discount a Jim Bolger Classic challenger.
 
THUNDER MOON (Joseph O’Brien) Declan McDonagh
Looked very good when quickening away from Wembley in the Group 1 National Stakes at The Curragh last September on only his second ever run. 3rd in Dewhurst but may not have been suited by the softer condition that day. If he’s trained on has a big chance here.
 
VAN GOGH (Aidan O’Brien) Seamie Heffernan
Apparently been working very well at Ballydoyle this Spring. Ended his juvenile season by winning the Criterium International at Saint Cloud by 4L, but that was on heavy ground. Has to prove he will be as effective on better ground although his breeding would give you encouragement. Ryan Moore appears to have chosen Wembley.
 
WEMBLEY (Aidan O’Brien) Ryan Moore
Ryan Moore’s pick of the three O’Brien horses. Solid juvenile form, finishing runner up in  National Stakes and Dewhurst on last two outings. Looks sure to be thereabouts.
 
Summary:-
 
An open renewal with the boys in blue and Ballydoyle battalions both three handed. Thunder Moon put current favourite Wembley firmly in his place when running away with the National Stakes at The Curragh and looks sure to run well if straight enough. Charlie Hill’s Mutasaabeq could be anything and was visually impressive at the Craven meeting. I’ll take that pair against the field although I can’t resist a tiny each way play on Naval Crown who beat Masters Of The Sea in Dubai.
 
THUNDER MOON (pictured below) 2 points win @ 5/1 William Hills
MUTASAABEQ 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365
NAVAL CROWN 1/2 point each way @ 66/1 Bet365 1/5th odds 1234
 

Thunder Moon.jpg

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

225 newmarket came from the dark 5-1  ladbrokes 2nd narrowly unlucky not to win gap didnt come when wanted was the best

240 thirsk tom collins 9.0 betfair exchange nowhere and acquitted 7.6 betfair exchange non runner

340 newmarket lucky vega 15.5 betfair exchange 3rd close

420 goodwood wink of an eye 7.4 2nd  betfair exchange and athers betfair sp

results 0/5 some dissappointing results with places

Edited by Wildgarden
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All prices Bet365:
 

1.50 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Al Muffrih @ 12/1

2.25 Newmarket - 1pt win Garrus @ 13/2

2.35 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Tintoretto @ 8/1

2.40 Thirsk - 1pt e/w Storting @ 18/1

2.50 Punchestown - 1pt e/w Eurobot @ 12/1

3.40 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Poetic Flare @ 12/1

4.20 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Fairy Cakes @ 25/1

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Markets, you have to love 'em and hate 'em at the same time.  However, I have decided that I will only bet on horses that have shortened in the market overnight from now on.  The hate bit comes in when the market subsequently turns later on, especially in the run up to the race, when the so called spotted good thing then drifts badly and runs a shocker.  All in the game.

1.30 Gd Nebulosa  I've put in £10 to win at 3.10 Currently 2.70. I'll pass should it not reach my price before the off

2.35 Gd Too tricky to play with Kings Knight and Kimifive' I'll pass

3.00 Nm Pablo Escobar £2 win at 11.5 (Tom Marquand and William Haggis team)

3.40 Nm Thunder Moon £4.40 win at 5.7 and Master Of The Sea ££3.20 at 7.8

4.50 Nm Secret Protector.  Very strong in the market but I don't like betting odds on.  Should win

1.55 Uttx Espinator Trying to get £3.40 matched at 7.0 . currently 6.2.  I have to say that the market has Iron Port in at 3/1.  Although I will stick to market shorteners  I would not put one penny on this one to sprout wings

1.35 Thirsk Hotline Bling is very strong at around 11/8.  There are 13 runners for this event with 4 at prices under 10/1 so I'll leave it but it looks as though punters will get a run for their money

Poss £23 staked so far today

Good luck to all betting today

 

 

 

   

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Posted (edited)

2.35 Good - Kimifive - 1pt @ 6/1 ... 3rd 8-1

3.05 Uttox - Reserve Tank - 1pt @ 6/1 ... L

3.15 Thirsk - Sunset Bay - 2pts @ 2/1 ... 2nd 3-1

3.45 Good - Three Platoon - 2pts @ 3/1 ... 3rd 2-1

6.55 Hex - Speak of the Devil - 1pt @ 4/1 ... 2nd 10-3

7.40 Donc - Ship of the Fen - 1pt @ 11/4 ... WON

7.55 Hex - Mill Race King - 1pt @ 10/3

 

9pts staked (100pt bank - Max = 5pts)

Edited by Bang on
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5 hours ago, Ironjoe said:

Finished the month +20.5

Goodwood 2.05 amniarix 5/1 1pt win

Goodwood 2.35 kimifive 11/2 1pt win

Newmarket 1.50 bright melody 100/30 2pt win

Newmarket 2.25 came from the dark 5/1 1pt win

Newmarket 3.40 thunder moon 9/2 2pt win

Newmarket 4m15 chil chil 7/2 1pt win won

Thirsk 2.40 nugget 1pt win

9 points staked

Good luck 🤙 

 

A frustrating day to kick off the month

4.5 points retun for a loss of 4.5

Month- -4.5

Overal - +16

 

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8 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:
 

1.50 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Al Muffrih @ 12/1

2.25 Newmarket - 1pt win Garrus @ 13/2

2.35 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Tintoretto @ 8/1

2.40 Thirsk - 1pt e/w Storting @ 18/1

2.50 Punchestown - 1pt e/w Eurobot @ 12/1

3.40 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Poetic Flare @ 12/1

4.20 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Fairy Cakes @ 25/1

Got to enjoy these days when they come as it's often a long time between drinks!!

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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Markets, you have to love 'em and hate 'em at the same time.  However, I have decided that I will only bet on horses that have shortened in the market overnight from now on.  The hate bit comes in when the market subsequently turns later on, especially in the run up to the race, when the so called spotted good thing then drifts badly and runs a shocker.  All in the game.

1.30 Gd Nebulosa  I've put in £10 to win at 3.10 Currently 2.70. I'll pass should it not reach my price before the off

2.35 Gd Too tricky to play with Kings Knight and Kimifive' I'll pass

3.00 Nm Pablo Escobar £2 win at 11.5 (Tom Marquand and William Haggis team)

3.40 Nm Thunder Moon £4.40 win at 5.7 and Master Of The Sea ££3.20 at 7.8

4.50 Nm Secret Protector.  Very strong in the market but I don't like betting odds on.  Should win

1.55 Uttx Espinator Trying to get £3.40 matched at 7.0 . currently 6.2.  I have to say that the market has Iron Port in at 3/1.  Although I will stick to market shorteners  I would not put one penny on this one to sprout wings

1.35 Thirsk Hotline Bling is very strong at around 11/8.  There are 13 runners for this event with 4 at prices under 10/1 so I'll leave it but it looks as though punters will get a run for their money

Poss £23 staked so far today

Good luck to all betting today

 

 

 

   

RESULTS UPDATE

 Unlucky not to get Nebulosa matched as it won and a little unlucky that Master Of the Sea got beat by a short head.  Iron Port proved me wrong so the market was right.  Although I lost £13 today I feel very positive about my analysis based upon over night market movers .  The way to go

My new balance is £918.90 (Bank £1,056.22)

I am looking forward to the £1,000 Guineas meeting tomorrow

 

 

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