Racing Chat - Saturday 24th April

[The Brigadier]

The 2020/21 Nation Hunt season comes to an end tomorrow in the UK with its traditional season finale at Sandown Park.

 

The feature race is the Bet365 Gold Cup previously known as the Betfred Gold Cup, Attheraces Gold Cup and for 45 years the Whitbread Gold Cup.

 

Run over 3m 4f 166yds and with the forecast set fair looks likely to be run on perfect ground following watering throughout the week. It most certainly wouldn’t favour the mud marks. Only 16 go to post this season and it doesn’t look the strongest we’ve ever seen though the days of Arkle, Mill House and Desert Orchid winning the race are a very distant memory. Here’s my horse by horse guide with a big priced selection at the end to dream about!

 

Crosspark (Caroline Bailey 11 11-12)

Stays well as proved by his course and distance 2nd last December to Doing Fine. Comes here in decent enough form though his last winning mark was 135 and races off of 150 here, the highest he’s ever raced off. Maybe in the the handicapper’s grip.

 

Potterman (Alan King 8 11-9)

Not seen since November when unseating in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury. Ground will suit though has yet to prove he stays further than 3m 1f whilst also racing off of his highest ever handicap mark, some 10lb higher than his latest win.

 

El Presente (Kim Bailey 8 11-9)

Fast ground ideal and looks to have been laid out for this race. Beat Potterman at Wincanton back in November by a short head and re-opposes on identical terms. Had break since and may have needed run when only 3rd of 4 at Ludlow last month.

 

Enrillo (Paul Nicholls 7 11-5)

Lightly raced novice who will appreciate the drying ground. Raised 5lb for latest victory at Newbury in February and has yet to race beyond 3 miles.

 

Smooth Stepper (Alex Hales 12 11-4)

0 from 8 on good ground and although he’s an out and out stayer (won over 3m 4 1/2f in the mud a year ago at Haydock) may find things happening too quick for him today.

 

Irish Prophecy (Emma Lavelle 8 11-4)

Only raced the 7 times over fences - winning twice. Bolted up at Taunton on good ground in November (7lb higher now) and only seen since when 3rd back over hurdles at Ascot a month ago under a 7lb conditional jockey. Appears to be have been laid out for this and could out run his odds.

 

The Young Master (Neil Mulholland 12 11-4)

Veteran who’s run in this race four times, winning it back in 2016 off of 148 and runner up off of 142 two years ago. Can race off of 142 today and the conditions are ideal. Maybe a bit long in the tooth now but no shock were he to hit the frame at a big price. Useful conditional Kevin Brogan rides claiming 5lb.

 

Cap Du Nord (Christian Williams 8 11-2)

Has stamina to prove as yet to race beyond 3 miles but has looked a reformed character this season winning at Newbury in November and not disgraced in three decent handicap chases since. In typical William’s style he’s teed up for this with a spin over hurdles last March where he pulled up. High enough in handicap now.

 

Golan Fortune (Phil Middleton 9 11-2)

Maybe didn’t stay the extreme distance of the Midlands National last time and the drop in trip here should suit. Only a novice over fences and this is only his 5th run over the larger obstacles. Others have better credentials.

 

Kitty’s Light (Christian Williams 5 11-1)

Williams’ second contender. The youngest in the field by two years at 5 years of age. No 5 year old has won this race in its 62 years (two 6 years old have obliged). Has won 4 of his 6 starts over fences including when stepped up to 3m 2f last time out at Kelso. Extra 3 furlongs here should suit and has claims.

 

Plan Of Attack (Henry De Bromhead 8 11-0)

The only Irish runner in the field. Was well backed and going nicely when taking a heavy fall three out in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival under today’s pilot Rachael Blackmore. Yet to race beyond 3m 2f but should stay and has to be on your shortlist though scant value at present at around 4/1.

 

Larry (Gary Moore 8 10-12)

An interesting outsider. Two from two at the track, including the 2m 4f novices handicap chase at this meeting two years ago off of a handicap mark of 139. He races off of 136 today (he’s actually due to go down another 4lb in future handicaps). First run for 492 days when always behind over a trip much too short of 2 miles at Chepstow 19 days ago where he also lost a shoe. That should of blown away the cobwebs and although he has questions to answer at the trip that is built into his monster price and he can out run those odds.

 

Checkitout (Nigel Twiston-Davies 7 10-11)

Yet to race this far but shapes like he should see it out ok. Has won two of his last three starts at Southwell and Ludlow though and flopped 9 days later when it was reported that the race came too soon. Given three weeks to get over that run he has small ew claims.

 

Doing Fine (Neil Mulholland 13 10-11)

Oldest contender in race and has conditions to suit. Bounced back to form when winning over course and distance in December beating Crosspark by 3/4L and re-opposes on identical terms. Well beaten since at 50/1 in Midlands National. Looks a bit over priced in comparison with Crosspark on that course and distance form but in the veteran stage now (no 12 or 13 year old has ever won this race).

 

Bob Mahler (Warren Greatrex 9 10-8)

Will stay well having won over 4m 1f at Musselburgh last season (3lb lower now). Has had excuses this season and well handicapped but not really running well enough to consider.

 

Supreme Escape (Evan Williams 7 10-0)

3lb wrong at the weights here but at the right end of the handicap and comes here on the back of a good win over this trip and ground at Chepstow. This is only his 6th run over fences and  is on my short list.

 

Summary:-

Am open renewal with current favourite Plan Of Attack over from the all conquering Henry De Bromhead stable with Rachael Blackmore riding a worthy favourite though it doesn’t say much about the quality of this years renewal when the favourites recent form figures read PP8F !

Bottom weight Supreme Escape is a lightly raced 7 year old with conditions looking ideal. He should run well for Welsh trainer Evan Williams. The likes of Enrillo and El Presente will love the drying conditions and are lively contenders but the best value bet for me is Gary Moore’s Larry. A winner at this fixture a couple of years ago, he looks well handicapped and if putting a line through his re-appearance run due to the fact the trip was woefully short and he needed the run (as well as losing a shoe) then he might surprise a few people at a big price. Trainers son Jamie takes the ride. I’ll back him each way with the firms with enhanced place terms and a small each way bet on Supreme Escape.

 

LARRY 1 point each way @ 40/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

SUPREME ESCAPE 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hills 1/5th 12345

 

 

[black rabbit]

Irish  Prophecy   3 40 san     1pt  win  @  18/1 

 

 

 

P/L   =  +  92 pts