Jump to content
Announcements
*** Punchestown Festival Competition: Well done to 1st. Craig Bluenose, 2nd. Lee Grays & 3rd. Carole Dawney ***
** April Poker League Result : 1st kevsul, 2nd Rob Valk, 3rd McG **
** Last Man Standing Results - glavintoby & Redno2009 both win £125 **
** April Naps Competition Result: 1st Sugardaddyken, 2nd TRAINMAD091, 3rd Harry Faint99, 4th Gary66. KO Cup Winner Waggy, Most Winners: Xtc12 **

Racing Chat - Sunday 18th April


Recommended Posts

It’s always an exciting day when the end of the National Hunt season overlaps with the beginning of the flat and Sunday is one such day with the Scottish National at Ayr and the Greenham meeting at Newbury overlapping, a day later than planned due to the funeral of The Duke Of Edinburgh.
 
There’s 10 televised races on terrestrial television and here’s my thoughts on those:-
 
Newbury 100
The two principals here are Enable’s half brother Derab, trained obviously by the father and son team of John and Thady Gosden and Snow Lantern trained by local trainer Richard Hannon who is also bred in the purple being by Frankel out of Sky Lantern, a multiple group winner for Hannon including the 1000 Guineas .
Both showed up well on their one run as a juvenile finishing runner up achieving a RPR within 2lb of each other. They're probably won’t be much between them but I do believe that Derab can be a bit quirky so I’ll go with Snow Lantern to take this and put herself in line for a tilt at a classic.
 
SNOW LANTERN 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet365
 
Ayr 1.15
Theinval ran respectively on Friday here and it wouldn’t be a shock if he was to improve for that effort and run a lot better in a race he won three years ago off of a 8lb higher mark. Age may just be catching up with him though now as he’s an eleven year old. Dan and Harry Skelton are in irresistible form at present and their runner King D’argent will be hard to beat here. He’s won 3 of his 4 starts over fences and has to shoulder a 9lb rise for his Warwick win 19 days ago. He’s improving and can step up again.
 
KING D’ARGENT 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365
 
Newbury 1.35
The John Porter is run over 1m 4f of the Berkshire course and to my eyes despite 9 runners going to post looks a sub standard renewal. I can’t have second favourite Deja who is a real mudlark and won’t have his conditions to suit today. Favourite and well supported all week (he was as big as 7/1 on Tuesday) is the William Haggas trained Al Aasy who will take plenty of beating. He has plenty of scope to progress into a decent group performer this season and by all accounts his gallop form at Newmarket this Spring has been exemplary. I make him the nap bet of the day.
 
AL AASY 4 points win @ 6/4 Boylesports
 
Ayr 1.50
Christian Williams has done wonders with his Five Star Getaway winning 3 of his 4 chase starts rising a staggering 41lb in the weights. He’s up 15lb for his latest win at Haydock but he won so well that it may not be enough to halt his progress. Jack Tudor ride him at Haydock and his 3lb claim maybe invaluable again. The Irish dominated at Cheltenham and Aintree and their sole representative in this race Pilbara trained by Emmet Mullins looks a big danger receiving 10lb from the selection.
 
FIVE STAR GETAWAY 2 points  wins @ 9/2 Bet365
 
 
Newbury 2.10
The Fred Darling may throw some light on the first classic as a trial for the 1000 Guineas in a couple of weeks time. The form horse is Andrew Balding’s Alcohol Free who won the group one Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September and steps up a furlong today, which shouldn’t be an issue at all. There are several improvers waiting to have a crack at her though and one I believe who may be up to running a big race is Roger Varian’s Zaajirah who impressed when winning a Kempton novices’ stakes last Autumn. That form is just ok but it was the style of her performance that impressed me and the vibes are positive from Newmarket. She may be the value each way bet here. One of my 20 to follow for the season Miss Finland makes her re-appearance here and it will be interesting to see how she fares.
 
ZAAJIRAH 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Ayr 2.25
Dan and Harry Skelton can double up with their handicap debutant Calico who has won two novice hurdles on soft ground at Ludlow and Warwick this season but his best effort actually came in defeat on good ground at Kempton when chasing home Emmet Mullin’s Cape Gentleman in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle in February. His mark of 139 looks workable and he looks sure to run well. Milkwood ran a stormer in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham to finish third and looks a threat along with Irish challenger Anna Bunina.
 
CALICO 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365
 
Newbury 245
The Greenham Stakes looks a hot race with the form horse being Richard Hannon’s Chindit. He brings the best form to the table winning three times as a juvenile culminating in a heavy defeat in the Dewhurst Stakes on soft ground. Back on a sounder surface he looks the one to beat. On the same official mark is the Marcus Tregoning trained Alkumait who also bombed out in the Dewhurst and has stamina to prove here. John & Thady Gosden’s Fundamental will be fit having won at Chelmsford recently and looks sure to run well here each way but I’ll stick with Hannon’s Chindit.
 
CHINDIT 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365
 
Ayr 3.00
Allmankind has to prove his stamina at 2 miles and also has to put a slightly disappointing effort in the Arkle at Cheltenham behind him. He’s opposable today. Paul Nicholl’s has had his team in excellent shape all season and his Tamaroc Du Mathan missed Cheltenham due to soft ground and today’s conditions look ideal for him. It was interesting that the trainer made him his best bet of the day in his excellent Betfair column yesterday and he’ll do for me.
 
TAMAROC DU MATHAN 2 points win @ 15/8 Bet365
 
Newbury 3.20
A wide open renewal of the Spring Cup with the two favourites Danyah, who ran 4th in the Lincoln and Troll Peninsula who is making his handicap debut here having looked good when winning at Kempton in March. It wouldn’t be a shock if either was to win this especially the latter but I’ll take a chance with the Richard Spencer trained Revich who missed the break in the Lincoln but ran on to such effect that he finished 6th just one length behind Danyah and is around 4 times the price of that rival. Apprentice Angus Villiers is good value for his 5lb claim and with plenty of firms paying enhanced place terms I’ll take a chance with him small each way with a win only bet on the Varian improver.
 
REVICH 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 William Hills 1/5th 12345
TROLL PENINSULA 1 point win @ 7/2 Bet365
 
Ayr 3.35
The Scottish National looks as open as ever and my short list comprises Notachance, Mister Fogpatches and Soldier Of Love. The latter would be my main play in the race, trained by Paul Nicholls he appears to have been trained for the race and will love the drying ground. Some of his early season novice form on good ground ties in with some smart sorts including NH Chase winner at Cheltenham Galvin. Harry Cobden injured himself a fortnight ago and is sitting out the season end so James Bowen comes in for the ride which is certainly no negative. Irish challenger Mister Fogpatches creeps in on 10 stone at the bottom of the weights and his recent 4th has been boosted by the 2nd bolting up in the Topham Chase since. Danny Mullins is an interesting jockey booking.
 
SOLDIER OF LOVE (below on right) 1 point each way @ 15/2 Bet365 1/4 12345
MISTER FOGPATCHES 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/4 12345
 
 

Soldier Of Love.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites

 +9.25 for month 

todays selections 

Wincanton 1.05 gateway to europe 5/1 1 win

Ayr 1.50 the butcher said 14/1 0.5 ew (5 places skybet)

Ayr 3. Tamaroc du mathan 13/8 2 win

Ayr 3.35 big river 28/1 0.5 ew (7 places skybet)

Newbury 1.35 kipps 9/1 1 win

Newbury 2.10 alcohol free 3/1 1 win

Newbury 2.45 chindit 15/8 1 win

Also 2 point treble on tamaroc du mathan/ alcohol / chindit 29/1

10 points staked good luck 🤙

 

 

 

Edited by Ironjoe
Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

Win single

1005 Strasbourg Sapanoria 9/4 (now 2/1)

Win single

1105 Strasbourg Dunquin 5/2 (still available)

Win double

1005 Sapanoria

1105 Dunquin

9.5/1

E/W single

1350 Ayr Marown 8/1 e/w (still 8/1 4 places)

Win single

1445 Newbury Chindit (NAP) 2/1 (still 2/1)

Good luck with your selections today.  I'm just wondering if you use a website that has the racecards in english together with results for your foreign racing.  The racecards and results don't show up on the traditional sites like Racing Post or ATR?

Link to post
Share on other sites

A fantastic day's racing is on the cards today.

I would love to spend hours looking at many of the open races on the menu today.  Unfortunately I simply don't have time to do so.  in fact, for my future analysis I am going to have to cut down on the number of races I look at each day.  I have my autistic son home with me this weekend so can't look closely even at a few races.

This being so I will just put one up for the Scottish grand national.  I am lumping on one of the Brigadier's selections (well having £2 quid on at 12.5 with Betfair for a possible profit of £22.54.

Hopefully, I can get back later on to at least watch some of the racing at it looks like a feast for all of us to see

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Good luck with your selections today.  I'm just wondering if you use a website that has the racecards in english together with results for your foreign racing.  The racecards and results don't show up on the traditional sites like Racing Post or ATR?

https://bet365.365dm.com/racing/form/racecards

Hope this helps :ok

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

A fantastic day's racing is on the cards today.

I would love to spend hours looking at many of the open races on the menu today.  Unfortunately I simply don't have time to do so.  in fact, for my future analysis I am going to have to cut down on the number of races I look at each day.  I have my autistic son home with me this weekend so can't look closely even at a few races.

This being so I will just put one up for the Scottish grand national.  I am lumping on one of the Brigadier's selections (well having £2 quid on at 12.5 with Betfair for a possible profit of £22.54.

Hopefully, I can get back later on to at least watch some of the racing at it looks like a feast for all of us to see

 

 

All I do now is class 2 to Grade/Group 3s . You obviously have Listed races in between those . That narrows it down for me and even some of those races mentioned I won’t bother with if it’s novice races or not much form to go off. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Butcher Said   1 50 ayr    1 pt  win  @ 16/1  betfair 

Mighty Thunder  3  35 ayr  1  pt  win    @ 11/1 betfair

The Ferry Master 3  35 ayr  ipt win @  21/1 betfair

Johan 3 20  new  1  pt win  @  18/1  betfair

Revich  3 20  new  1 pt  win  @  30/1 betfair

 

 

P/L  =  +  86  pts 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Trends for the Scottish National.

Forecast odds less than 25/1 2 from 93. This reduces the field to 8.

Ran more than 32 days ago 1 from 98. This reduces the field to 2, CLAUD AND GOLDIE, CHEF D'OEUVRE.

Bred in Ireland. 2 from 102. This leaves CHEF D'OEUVRE at 14/1.

Great stats.  I'm lumping on with £2 at 20.0 on the Betfair Exchange (should have had only £1.50).  It's napped by RP Spotlight so it must run well, mustn't it 🙂

I'm just wondering if you have current stats relating to Handicap and non-handicap winners.  I am assuming that there are still more winners of graded races however, as I have mentioned before there are quite often cramped odds with favourites in handicap races these days?  

 

Edited by The Equaliser
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Ironjoe said:

 +9.25 for month 

todays selections 

Wincanton 1.05 gateway to europe 5/1 1 win

Ayr 1.50 the butcher said 14/1 0.5 ew (5 places skybet) placed

Ayr 3. Tamaroc du mathan 13/8 2 win

Ayr 3.35 big river 28/1 0.5 ew (7 places skybet)

Newbury 1.35 kipps 9/1 1 win

Newbury 2.10 alcohol free 3/1 1 win won

Newbury 2.45 chindit 15/8 1 win won

Also 2 point treble on tamaroc du mathan/ alcohol / chindit 29/1

10 points staked good luck 🤙

 

 

 

Unfortunately tamaroc let dow the treble and made for a slight losing day.

9 points returned for 1 point loss

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Great stats.  I'm lumping on with £2 at 20.0 on the Betfair Exchange (should have had only £1.50).  It's napped by RP Spotlight so it must run well, mustn't it 🙂

I'm just wondering if you have current stats relating to Handicap and non-handicap winners.  I am assuming that there are still more winners of graded races however, as I have mentioned before there are quite often cramped odds with favourites in handicap races these days?  

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Just a £4 loss on the Scottish National today so my new balance is £1,056.22 (Bank £1,000).

Let's hope that I can pick some proper selections tomorrow.  Will try to bet to 100% of odds with a mixture of selections in a different number of races = about £40 average daily stakes 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/18/2021 at 3:37 PM, The Equaliser said:

Any chance of you sharing last season's figures for the flat, AW and the jumps

Not sure exactly what figures you are referring to but some data referring to forecast favourites on the flat turf.

Overall AE of 0.98 with a strike rate of 27%. The strike rate has been consistent at 26 / 27 % for each of the last 7 years although the AE was especially poor last year, at 0.95.

Windsor has been the most profitable course with 378 winners from 1,258 runners with a LSP of 70 points and an AE of 1.06.

Class 1 races have 621 winners from 1,965 runners with a LSP of 46 points and an AE of 1.03.

Distance 1m5f to 2m3f have 691 winners from 2,373 runners with a LSP of 130 points and an AE of 1.06.

DSLR < 5 have 261 winners from 822 runners with a LSP of 34 points and an AE of 1.09.

I will look at compiling a system for the flat system, probably based on the longer distance races.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...